... Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart wrote a seminal book a few years ago: This Time is Different. It is about sovereign defaults over the past 800 years. They chose this period as there was good documentation. It is an excellent book, though not exactly poolside reading. But, sovereign defaults have been going on a long time. Martin Armstrong discusses one of the earliest ones for which there are records: "First Sovereign Debt Default 4th Century BC" http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38812Various Greek city-states defaulted on their loans. In the same article, Armstrong discusses that even Lydia (the first country to produce MONETARY COINS) defaulted by making their gold coins smaller. Other powers subsequently (Rome, Byzantium) went on to defaults by adulterating their silver coins. Highly recommended. |
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Ditto to above remarks that no one really knows what is happening.
An example that I knew nothing about (until reading it here in this thread) is the apparent lax capital controls in China. I otherwise would have guessed that they would have been very strict.
With Bitcoin (and much about the world economy), it is almost impossible to be completely informed. There is great value in reading a wide variety of information sources.
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Leaving price out of the equation
The price is key though - if you want the ecosystem to grow, there should be no brainer options to store and use your bitcoins securely in my opinion. We aim to deliver a few products on that range of the spectrum, while not denying that said spectrum is large enough to provide room for a lot of other options. Also keep in mind that "ultimate security" doesn't mean much if you don't list the threats you're interested to protect against. I've always been telling early adapters to get one TREZOR and two HW.1 to experiment with those concepts - now if you own several hundred bitcoins, I'll probably also suggest you get a KeepKey, because it's shiny  Yes, having some products at different price points is probably a good idea. I have a Trezor as well as a Ledger Nano. Both work fine, I have used each device several times. As you write, as experiments... Innovation in the "space" (hardware wallets) is likely to be fast. There will likely be many options soon, but then there will be a shake-out. |
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... rpietila and others interested in Bitcoin startups may have some more choices soon. bitcointalker RodeoX just posted an SEC notice that crowdfunding will now be easier here in the USA. Here's his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1233139.0This might be a wonderful things, both for Bitcoin entrepreneurs as well as small investors who would like to get in at "the bottom floor". But: investing in very small startup companies is very risky, I have been there and have the battle-scars to show it. |
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OK, RodeoX, you have almost assigned to yourself a new thread: "New Bitcoin Startups Looking for Crowdfunding"This may very well change the dynamic here, I would welcome looking at new ideas. It's too late for factom.org for example, that would have been an interesting investment idea for small investors. Great find! + 100 |
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As I have posted before, HODLING BTC and Au are complimentary. They have different "price dynamics" so are relatively independent of each other. Diversification in other words.
Gold, however, does have one advantage at least for now. The Buy:Sell spread is much lower!
Go to a coin shop and check the Buy and Sell prices, you will almost surely find the spreads tighter than BTC spreads. The BTC ATM I visited not long ago prices BTC at 9% over "spot" (current market price). Gold coins have a tighter (lesser) spread.
I would *guess* that BTC spreads will narrow in the coming years as liquidity (popularity here) increases.
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Wow guys, this is a huge freaking news! You have to earn a right to be in this magazine, let alone to be on the cover page! This will introduce Bitcoin to the higher class, more eminent people that are reading the Economist!
I can only say that Bitcoin is in a fifth gear when it comes to promotion, adoption and acknowledgement by the masses!
Yes, the demographics of the people (high education, high income) who read The Economist are very favorable for us hoping that Bitcoin gains the exposure we need "to get BTC into fifth gear" (nicely put, MickeyB). That magazine is read all over the world by rich & connected people. Many of them will be taking a look at BTC if only out of curiosity. And some of them will become heavy hitters. Indeed, this is very good news as so many of you above have written.  |
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I just thought of another little wrinkle about bitcointalk and signature campaigns. There are at least two other Bitcoin forums (just the ones I know about, maybe there are more) allowing people to comment to their heart's content.
But, bitcointalk is the only one that has a signature campaign option (program)! At least that I know of.
This makes bitcointalk more attractive to signature campaign participants as they earn a little bit of income. Being able to explore an interesting technology like Bitcoin (by asking questions and exploring BTC in its different threads), and get paid some is a powerful incentive for many of us.
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alj92 is having similar problems to what Peru would be having if anyone there were interested (which last time I looked into this via our company there). NO ONE in Peru seems to care about Bitcoin, other than a few tekkies, and even then there is next to NO BTC traffic.
BTC would not work well for our small company there because of the tight restrictions their taxation authorities place on businesses -- for example EVERY transaction we make has to go to them via email on a spreadsheet... Not even the USA does that!
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... bitmixer.io had something to say on a nearby thread that I found rather interesting and pertinent: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=425135.msg12838081#msg12838081Their experience seems to be that there is no real difference in ad effectiveness whether it is a Full Member, Senior Member or Hero Member carrying their ad! Again, my limited experience with ads is that it is a numbers game. And the longer and consistent the advertiser stays in the game, the more likely success will come. Which parallels what many here in this thread are writing. |
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Hey Bitmixer, do you have plans to raise payouts for higher ranked members? I think at least there should be a slight difference for Full Members and Hero Members.
No, sorry. The effect of ads doesn't depend on member's rank. But good news we do not plan to reduce payout rate due to bitcoin price increased. bitmixer That's interesting, some of the comments on other signature campaign threads were wondering about their effectiveness. I am pleased that the economics of these are working out for you. They have worked out for me. |
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Here's an interesting one - negative rates in Europe are having the opposite desired effect: savings rates are actually increasing. This says that the average person cannot be dissuaded from what they see on a daily basis in their lives. Despite NIRP "household savings rates have also risen. For Switzerland and Sweden this appears to have happened at the tail end of 2013 (before the oil price decline). As the BIS have highlighted, ultra-low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-29/bank-america-looks-europes-record-%E2%82%AC26-trillion-negative-yielding-debt-stunned-what-iThis stands against some commentators who I follow that suggest the EU is actually making the necessary reforms needed to allow it to exit the quagmire first. That remains to be seen, but always good to look at differing opinions. They are saving, I am saving too, but they are not saving in a bank. Who is so foolish to put all his money in a bank? Especially in a country where the debt is like 500% like in Japan or Ireland, these will go bankrupt sooner or later. I have money in bank but if the interest rates will decline further (which they will) I`ll get it out. I am too, with gold and bitcoin as my government hedge. But this goes against the intended outcomes of ZIRP and NIRP, ie to force money to be spent. Probably why most theoretical economics that use outdated modelling (The Fed) are wrong in the wild. Kind of heroic in a way, that the masses instinctively know something is amiss and that crackpot policy and blabbering media cannot change the sentiment. This is also something that Armstrong recognised; that there is no bubble in stocks as Average Joe is still too burnt from 2000 & 2008 to get back in. When they do, combined with the flows into the US, we'll see blow off tops in the Dow (i think 23000 was first target, then onto 32000). My family and I are, and have been for a couple of years now, saving at a prodigious rate. We are spending LESS, even with NIRP/ZIRP. So in a sense, we are following a similar logic as the Europeans you mention. Yes, gold and BTC are a pair of good & complementary ways to hedge against .gov. Might want to add some CA$H, as in a pinch, CA$H will be accepted almost everywhere (for a while), whereas BTC and precious metals might not. |
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Except for the little guy. The BIG FISH are always exempt from "rules". If/when they try to ban cash, it will not matter for TPTB, and you can take that to the bank. HSBC is well known in banking circles for being the world's dirtiest (large) bank. Alas for my family, our bank is partly dependent on HSBC for some asset custody, which burns me to no end. |
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So ponzi schemes are legal in Russia, but Bitcoin illegal?
idiots
Countries which have a weak currency / are insecure about their currency tend to attack Bitcoin. ^^^ True dat ^^^ They attack Bitcoin because they seek a scapegoat to hide their own venality, corruption and incompetence. BTC is a convenient political target... |
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If China starts using Bitcoin we can definitely expect a big price increase. I hope to see the $1000 days again, this time with a Bitcoin or two.
That is, of course, a big if, but should the Chinese people start moving into Bitcoin, then it will move the price up. With Chinese mining pools mining some 57% (+/-) of BTC now, there is plenty of new BTC supply coming on-line every day there. And the physical location of all these new Bitcoins makes it a little easier for locals to buy. Yet, all that BTC production in China would not be enough to satisfy demand at current prices should Chinese citizens wanting protection from their Yuan. The high price potential is there. BTC is a great speculation, but think of BTC as a SPECULATION at this point. |
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Bitcoin is the only way that we can have a global form of money that's up to date with current's standards in technology and that is bullet proof again the evils of hyperinflation which assume resources are infinite. Bitcoin promotes saving and frugality instead of mindless consumption because you value your money way more than filthy fiat.
Well, I like BTC a lot, but I am very much into diversification re protecting my financial butt. We really do not know how BTC will react to a hyperinflationary environment (nor in a deflationary environment either). So, I would hold some gold as well as even CA$H (the long green stuff, NOT electrons in the bank). How much of each of BTC, gold and CA$H? Depends on your own circumstances and views of possible economic scenarios. But, a denouement is coming... The 19.6 trillion national debt (way understating total debts) is not payable, and WILL be defaulted on, one way or another. |
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... Latest Dow Jones chart for those interested:  * * * Armstrong put up a nice little post on Barcelona planning a new currency: "Barcelona to Issue Its Own Electronic Currency" http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38697It looks like they want to create very soon & peg an electronic currency to the Euro. It looks like they will start with an electronic currency only. |
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Based upon reading I have done, and based on my own positive experiences in using bitmixer.io's service, I would like to invest some BTC there. The website explains their investment parameters, but when I inquired a year or so ago, they were not interested in outside investors (putting investors' BTC into their reserves, and paying 90% of the proceeds from customers mixing their coins).
I read that they mix a lot of BTC...
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