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After yesterday's big run-up in stocks, we are down hard today after the Chinese Yuan Devaluation.

It is too soon to really understand how the devaluation fits in (lots of variables in that equation), but it pretty much kills the idea of the Yuan becoming part of the SDR.

The Autumn is typically a dangerous time to be a bull in stocks.  I have been lightening up (but have been for 15 + years).

Some indicators (particularly commodity prices) are pointing to recession soon!

CA$H (in your hand/under the mattress -- NOT in the bank), gold, Bitcoin are all good diversification.  Buy what you feel comfortable at.

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tabnloz

There is so much that is interesting about the Yuan devaluation.  The first and obvious effect is that Chinese exports will become cheaper, although marginally so in our case (our company imports automotive bearings from Asia into Peru, including Chinese).

Armstrong today has his comments on the devaluation:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35842

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Agree that a devaluation will only hurt China's (now ceased?) efforts to include the Yuan into the SDR.  The IMF (and Europe and the USA, not to mention Japan -- a prime victim of China's devaluation) will look dimly on China now...

China does continue to build its gold reserves, which is about the ONLY good news coming from China lately.

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And how do Korea and Japan react to this?  We buy bearings from all three countries, so our costs will go down.  But, if Peru's own currency joins "The Currency War" and also devalues, that is a net minus (pay in dollars, receive local currency for sales).

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Lately Jim Willie has been doing more videos/audios than his (free) written reports, but yesterday he put up an article:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1439151178.php

Dr. Willie is about as bearish as they come.  He likes gold (to $10,000 / toz), but does NOT follow Bitcoin.  I once offered to pay for a subscription with BTC, but he was not interested.

His "Hat Trick Letter" is typically 30 + pages long and comes out every month or so.  He now lives far away from the US .gov whom he intensely dislikes.

A tad on the conspiratorial side...

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My take on The Debate was that Rand Paul did not come out a winner.  Ideologically, I probably like him the best, but he did not come off looking good.  *Sigh*

The Donald did come off reasonably well.  Maybe not enough to ENHANCE his front-runner status, but good enough to keep it.  For now.

Ted Cruz and Scott Walker came off well, especially Cruz, but Scott Walker has demonstrated that he can fight (he had Democrat hit teams come in from all over the USA to take him down as Governor of Wisconsin, he whipped 'em...).

Jeb! did not, kind of the Big Loser, but he was serious and did not lose much.

ANY of the above are better than Hillary (though Jeb! not much).

Ahh, kickstarter.com.  I'll go have a look to satisfy my curiosity re Knowledge Age examples.  I also realized that almost ANY BTC companies would be examples as well.

There's a small amount of Knowledge Age already in our bearing business.  Many new bearings come out all the time, and the designs are not publicized.  We (and our competitors) have to dig for that information.  One thing we have going for us is that some of our Korean bearings are made by few (or no) others in the world.  "Special pieces"  

We also try and incrementally buy smarter through time.  I do my part by studying the sales database I created and work on.  A lot of value can be derived from a database showing sales through time of some 800 different SKUs, all with their own characteristics (as well as our customers' characteristics).  I keep track of all of this with a "star-shaped" multidimensional database, perfectly ready for OLAP* and other analytical tools.

*Too bad IBM wants $2000 for their Cognos tool, and roughly the same for MSFT's SQL Server (which includes a nice OLAP tool as well).

15 - 18 years ago I was using free or cheap advanced analytical software that was easy to use.  Now it is NOT cheap nor easy to use..., or BOTH.  

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Monero is not well accepted yet, not ready for prime time.  It's also HARDER with fewer easy-to-use tools.

Ease of use is a bigger factor, TPTB, than you might think.  

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From the Economic Devastation thread, but relevant here IMO:



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Arguably hard, but not impossible of course, to shut down THIS site is a good example of a programmer/entrepreneur who has a quiet (and apparently lucrative) business that only a low percentage of people in the world could achieve on his (their) own...

TPTB and friends, does this idea ("Examples of Knowledge Age Efforts") merit a separate thread?

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This just occurred to me, right after I had logged-out, but I thought I would toss this in here as an example of the Knowledge Age...

The company (guy, whatever) I have in my signature is about as good an example I can think of for a Knowledge Age effort!  

The site is very automated (very "knowledge-y"), at least one of his mixing options is via TOR, it is a future-oriented service...

bitmixer.io could be (is?) perhaps a one-man effort, whether it is just one or a small group really makes no difference re as an example of a Knowledge Age enterprise.

I'd be interested in comments on whether bitmixer is a good example of a Knowledge Age effort, let's leave aside any comments on mixing effectiveness or similar (eg, whether TOR is really anonymous).

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I keep about BTC0.2 in my blockchain wallet on iPhone.  So far I have never "used" it (spent it), other than receiving some BTC from an ATM in NYC (tale told elsewhere), I have not been to any cafes where I could buy anything with BTC.

So, I sent the "more than I could afford" to other wallets and just keep the +/- $50 worth of BTC on my iPhone's wallet.

Almost all the larger balance is on Ledger Nano & Trezor.

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It will be of great interest to me how Tesla and the Gigafactory all work out.  I try to pay attention to materials like lithium and the rare earths (as well as all the investment metals).

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Deflation...  Although the Western economies could go in any direction, a "deflation then hyperinflation" set of scenarios is very possible.  Deflation to wring out PM-holders (and weak companies & overstretched consumers), then POW!, Uncle Janet Yellen whacks us with garbage dollars after.

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Because, be definition, so few of us can become "Alphas" in the Knowledge Age, the rest of us can best become prepared the best we can.  Preparation includes knowledge, a readiness to explore "Plan B" countries (which it appears that ONLY TPTB has actually DONE), PMs, harder-core stuff like guns & ammo & water filtration (etc.), and my favorite: DIVERSIFICATION.

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Re nooks and crannies, yes, the Andes (particularly in Peru) has LOTS of them.  With relatively few people in the tropical & sub-tropical zones (most of the Andeans like the cooler weather higher-up).  There is, as TPTB has pointed out at least twice, rather high violence for a rural area.

Costa Rica is just fine if you have $$$.  Panama, not as nice IMO (but with an economy that might be stronger in the long run), requires LESS MONEY to reside.

Paraguay and Uruguay, Argentina & Chile...  EIGHT WEEKS, bitchez.  A visit for at least eight weeks to see if the place (8 weeks PER candidate country), to eat the food, visit lawyers, investigate opportunities, etc., etc.

If you show up in any LatAm country knowing Spanish and being relatively self-sufficient, you will be accepted (assuming good behavior, LOL).  That is a big plus.  I have heard that in much of Asia that is not true...

Yes, I know that.  It has been impossible to get any meaningful changes down here in the USA.  You are likely 99% correct.  +/-  !!

We would need a real hard-ass Republican to knock heads in the Senate and the House to get anything real done.  Since the REPUBLICAN Senate was unable to stop neither ObamaCare nor federal funding of Planned Parenthood (embroiled in a horrific aborted-baby-parts scandal here), I am not hopeful.

But, having just a Consumption Tax would bring money and talent back to the USA very quickly.  It would be HUGE.

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TPTB and trollercoaster

I do NOT know the rules re Peru or any of the others.  But, I can offer advice on practicality of living in LatAm:

First, it is important to be able to speak Spanish!  You would be very isolated without it.

Second, anyone interested in a country should visit it for a minimum of EIGHT WEEKS!  Eat the food.  Meet the lawyers.  Etc.

I would *think* that you should either HAVE money (say $50,000 or more in CA$H, etc.) OR have a really good skill-set that they would need.

Let me know (PM or email) if either of you plan a trip to Peru, and we can arrange to have you picked up at the airport.

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Martin Armstrong for President?

Here (link below) he writes that he would only impose indirect taxes.  No income tax (the big plus: more privacy).  No property tax (the minus: property is THERE, so will likely always be taxed).

Armstrong would do some version of a consumption tax.  Five stars.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35741

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I have used some 100 BTC addresses (many of them just once) since starting w/ BTC almost two years ago.  I use some at blockchain.info, some w/ Trezor, some w/ Ledger Nano.  I have used BTC to buy gold (inc. Veldt Gold here at bitcointalk).

I have sent BTC to THREE friends, small amounts to get started, NONE of them has become active.  Also, my city does not seem to be very active in BTC. 

40,000 users seems to be very low, IMO.  If I had to guess, I would agree w/ above guesses say in the 500,000 - 1 million range (worldwide).

I would be very interested in getting knowledgeable numbers on BTC use...

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Responding to some items...

1)  My experience with firearms is limited.  Like so many of my interests, few of my family & friends share them.  I have only shot an AR-15 a couple of times, and I have never cleaned one.  Since my mechanical abilities are somewhat low, I bought an AK-47 clone (semi-auto).  I chose it because it's idiot-proof and easy to clean & field-strip.  I really like it, but I ought to look again at the AR-15, there are some real pluses.  My sidearm is the M-92 Beretta (9 mm), in stainless, the piece used by the US Army.  Both the 7.62 * 39 and 9 mm ammo are very abundant and easy to get.

2)  Ever since the flurry of the Bush / Paraguay ranch news, I have been unable to get much confirmed via the 'Net.  I remember (with a little glee, LOL) that many in Argentina were CONCERNED that the Bushes were going to set up shop next door...  Their property was supposed to be adjacent to (or near) a ranch owned by the Moonies.  The attraction, of course, to that part of Paraguay is the Guarani Aquifer, the world's largest.  Water, bitchez.

3)  Many people hate the cold (TPTB, OROBTC), many others hate the heat.  Climate is part of any Plan B calculations.

4)  As gringos, any consideration of living in rural areas ought to include the security / violence that TPTB has mentioned before.  Casual rural violence is a real problem.

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Plan B for us is Peru.  But, we have a business there, and kind in-laws.  We would be OK there.

Costa Rica is nice, I have been there several times (we even have a small bearing customer there).  C.R. is nice, but expensive.  Also totally under Uncle Sam's thumb (so don't be an IRS fugitive there).

But, were it not for my ties to Peru, I would be looking mostly at a remote-USA scenario.  South or Central Texas.  Wyoming/Montana (cold there).  Fewer people, ideally on a small ranch with sufficient water to eke by.  Buy some solar panels, maybe some cattle...

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Exactly this kind of discussion is what everyone should be thinking about, but you never hear our politicians talking about our real problems of debt and insolvency.

The solution that works for me (and you hear this elsewhere) is diversification.  Members here (as well as Zero Hedge) seem to be at least somewhat into gold, and especially into Bitcoin (here at bitcointalk).

There is nothing wrong with holding shares, nothing wrong with real estate.  But hold other assets too.  Avoid debt.

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One of my correspondents (and her family) was from Australia having moved there after Rhodesia became Zimbabwe.  She wanted OUT of Oz for the reasons mentioned above: even greater Socialist tendencies than the USA.

She, last I heard, has settle on PARAGUAY!  Paraguay (which I visited once almost 30 years ago) is a very backwater place, but I thought it was rather tranquil.  I would bet it is CHEAP.  Paraguay's Eastern Chaco region has the cheapest biomass for sale on the planet. Lots of big & remote places (as in no decent road access) are on sale.  WATER is the main problem.  Lots of sun though, good for solar power.

PY is corrupt, but they all are in S. America.  Brazilians are starting to take over (by migration similar to Mexican informal invasion into the USA) the eastern part of the country.

If you want to be left alone, the Paraguayan Chaco is a place you can disappear.

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Peru has lots of nooks and crannies, and is worth a look as a Plan B country.  The place has LOTS of problems though, including a lot of the Socialist tendencies.  Peru would best be visited before making any decisions...

Argentina and Chile are wealthier, but I do not know them well.

TPTB is correct re violence all over Latin America, both in the cities and even the countryside.  Peru's example of Maoist-style Marxism was fearsome Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), who were about on the same level as the Khmer Rouge.

TPTB is also correct re strict gun laws.  I like having my guns, and a Plan B's gun laws would be a factor in any plans to leave the USA.

There are no perfect places.

lissandra

LOTS of the world is that corrupt!  Peru (my beat when not here in the USA) is pretty corrupt at all levels, is not even too bad by developing country standards.

But, I know little about the Philippines, but I would imagine it is at least as bad as Peru.

I saw a lot of corruption just as a tourist in Egypt a long time ago.  Bet that hasn't changed much.

Then you have some of the "world leaders in corruption": start with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)...

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For everything but one bitmixer.io payment (a signature payment, one of which WAS delayed for over 40 hours), I have had no troubles at all with any transactions since I started changing my miner's fee payment to BTC0.0003 (roughly eight cents).

No other problems.  EIGHT CENTS is perfectly OK with me for a Bitcoin transaction.

You gotta roll with the punches, TPTB.  I am sure you already know that, though I have not suffered MS, but can imagine.

The issue I am now wrestling with is the probability spectra of what could go wrong in our futures:

-- TEOTWAWKI, or merely a Great Depression v 2?  (And intermediate)

-- 1984-style tyranny

-- Above would happen everywhere?  To different degrees?

-- How correct would our amigo " TPTB_need_war" be about the various wrinkles coming down the pike?

-- How fast/slow would various things happen (I liked your "Armageddon" YouTube you recommended)?

-- How do families (vs. single or DINKs) fit into this relative to each other (kids slow you down, but are the best legacy)?

-- How does a Knowledge Age work out with a 10%-er (best guess as to where I am at)?

-- Etc.  You get my point though.  A complex set of calculations & assumptions to review, ponder, collate and act upon...