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I am staying out of this little sub-argument here, but have an observation of TPTB's assertion that Chinese manufacturers' profits are down.
I do not know for a fact that they are (in general let's say), but I do wonder how they can be making any money selling many of their automotive bearings for so cheap. I cannot see how, even if they have robots in their plants.
Also it is in the media that companies are leaving China for Vietnam, Bangladesh and even Mexico (though I have no numbers).
China and the BRICS seem to be Poster Boyz for "Economic Devastation" for now.
I wonder if China's manufacturing base is at risk of being hollowed-out as companies leave for cheaper pastures... They DO have a huge manufacturing base, so likely they can hang on to it enough to benefit from TPTB's expected decline of America & Europe. Well, we'll see.
If the West declines enough, TARIFFS & QUOTAS will come back from the past. Not good for China.
^^ And you saw THAT here first! ^^
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Well if you want proof that Maxwell wants to make war with me, he moved the following thread from the Bitcoin Technical & Discussion thread, after I made the post pointing out I was AnonyMint and that his Andrew buddy has a flawed white paper: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1159691.0And not only that, but he didn't provide any "MOVED:..." thread link. I am messaging the superior moderators. If it is war he wants, then it is war he will get. And I am not referring to any action the owners of the forum obviously won't do. I am referring to destroying his company and Bitcoin. Now the fight is on. New thread?: Technological Totalitarianism  * * * Re bond yields and bond prices, yes, TPTB I understand that. But, I am not tempted to buy bonds at about 1.99%. 1.99% is only a little better than 0%, and the 1.99% would be taxed anyway. Sure bonds could go up (they have gone up A LOT). But, not for me. Not going to ride that tiger. |
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Just because most people are looking at CHINA now does not mean Greece & Europe have gone away.
Greece's continuing problems are still a big problem for the rest of Europe, which has its own other problems as well (ref. Zero Hedge article on crashing ocean container rates from China to Europe).
Germany is likely suffering lower exports to China, but I have not read anything about that yet. China is a BIG customer of German machinery. And luxury car sales (also cratering in China).
But, China, for now anyway, is still the bigger story.
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TPTB: do you have any thoughts on the "black monday" crash going on right now? Is this the start to the 2015.75 financial crash? A foreshadowing of things to come over the next couple months?
Any steps to take in the immediate future?
As I explained in my post in the MA thread today, this is the false move that causes the peak in bonds by Oct. 1. You should be selling gold, BTC, and bonds, and buying US dollar and US stocks on this low this week. Hold tight in that until Spring 2016, then diversify some into gold and crypto coins (especially mine  ) as they will bottom (<$700 and <$100). great, thanks for the response. So are the calls for an all out "collapse" (of banks, society, outright chaos) overblown? It seems like financial markets are getting much more volatile and risky, do you think those predictions are overblown? Or are they just misdirection? TPTB is right about the US dollar. It went down hard today vs. the euro and the yen because foreigners are cashing in their "Carry Trades" and taking their money home. The dollar should be pretty strong for the short to medium term, IMO. Sell bonds. The 10-Year now has a yield of just 1.99%. 1.99%? Ahh, no thanks. Moi? I sold a bunch of stock about three weeks ago, so am HODLING all else. Everyone's situation is different. |
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... Martin Armstrong is an economist who is busy trying to get a supercomputer to help him and his clients understand the future. He is very bright, beyond question. But, he may not be for everyone. In particular, .gov Venezuela would not like his take on Venezuela's hyperinflation (article today -- Sunday). He contends that it is their people's lack of confidence in the government and monetary system: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36109 |
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How can you state that gold will increase forever? Its been decreasing value per year for the past 5 years, reaching its all time lo this year. The only reason bitcoin succeeds gold is for its potential, because its value can increase 10 fold-100 fold but gold? No, I don't think so. I've seen companies gone which were there for a century, what is a shiny object in comparison? Things change. This is pretty easy to explain. Gold has been falling since 2012 (surely not the past 5 years) when the Fed finally stopped printing money as hell (QEs, actually Ctrl-P's). Till then gold had been soaring since the beginning of millennium. To reach back there it has yet to fall three times from where it is now... The bottom line is that gold will appreciate since the dollar is doomed to depreciate in the long run. This is a given Yes. Gold has also been around much longer than the dollar. 5000 years longer. Supply of dollars will almost surely expand than supply of physical gold. Even if BTC becomes used worldwide, there will always be lots of people (myself especially included) who will take gold. "There is always someone around who will take your gold." (meaning they would take it as payment) -- traditional "When you get gold, you have already been paid." (meaning FIAT$ need to be changed into food, services, etc.; EXCHANGED again) -- FOFOA |
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Economists and finance guys decrying the market virtues of a centrally planned resource? Surely not!
Many tinfoil hatters and doomsday economists visit zerohedge. Half of them believe the grid is going to go down and the only thing that will have value then is gold and ammo. It's a heavily biased "news" site that writes stories that are overly sensational. They have been yelling financial meltdown, crash, collapse of the dollar, etc every since they launched. I am one of those tinfoil hatters then apparently. This is symptomatic of the Information Age IMO, there are no authoritative information sources anymore. And when you discover that any previously authoritative sources were actually just very well placed to elude detection of the lies they were telling, you realise it was simply well developed psychological tactics all along. The Zerohedge editorial is clearly doomsday stuff. But you will not get the truths that are difficult to handle from other sources, they will tell you something soothing that is easy to cope with. Both positions are paradoxical; they are simultaneously true and false, depending on the timeframe you evaluate them over, and your emotional disposition. Zerohedge sum up the former brilliantly with their tagline: "On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero". It's incredibly nihilistic, but it's also the truth. It is beyond question that Zero Hedge has its place as a great financial news site busting through the Financial Happy Talk Paradigm. Yes, there are many preppers there. But, preparation is a spectrum of actions. I too prepare some. Not much for TEOTWAWKI, but because it is prudent to have some backup in case things turn bad. But, yeah, there are so many ZH-ers that assume "Lights Out" re their BTC comments that it makes me think they either hate BTC way too much, or that they have little understanding of the probability of such a disaster as the grid going down. |
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trollerc
Now THAT is pretty sick of Spain! She even took the photo down. Next time she ought to put the photo up in a more anonymous place.
This would also seem to fit Martin Armstrong's idea that .govs everywhere are just going for the money.
Money, nada mas!
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You did say that but small is unqualified and often people include their illiquid assets in the calculation.
I though you might have 5% of total networth in gold, thus perhaps up 20% of liquid networth. At those levels, I sense goldbug fever.
If you are safely within reasonable diversification, then my apology for prying into your personal matters.
I just get offended by "gold price manipulated" and other tinfoil hat-speak because I allowed myself to get suckered into that and held 80% of my liquid networth in silver and ended up being destitute by now partially because of that decision. Not because I didn't issue sell orders per my prediction of top at $45, but because in order for my physical silver to follow me to the Philippines it had to be placed with a local dealer who then ... I'd rather not say...
10-4. I do not believe that gold's price is any more manipulated than anything else. It's too large a market. There *may* be some manipulation around the edges, but, IMO it is pretty meaningless. And I don't care anyway. SILVER, ahh, the "Devil's Metal"... I have a tiny holding, mostly as a small hedge for a serious TEOTWAWKI. On the other hand, silver has NOT been used in any of the recent countries that have had hyperinflation. Silver was NOT used in Peru during their hyperinflation (1980s).You write gold may be over-hyped. Bet you have a good take re Ag hype... EDIT: If we act as optimists (to a degree anyway), there is a case for PLATINUM, as its use is likely to increase with an increase in world GDP (as a catalyst -- much needed in China for example). But, being optimistic seems to be dangerous now (DJIA down 1000 points last week). |
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TPTB & username18333
I do not hold gold to trade it. "Paper gold" is worth less to me than the real thing. So for me to monkey around with the GLD (etc.) is a non-starter. I have plenty of paper investments (stocks, bonds, etc.; that are really electrons in other peoples' computers).
My gold's role is to help me imitate the Old Rich Families in Europe: pass it down through the generations.
But, however, my wife has put the boot down: No More Gold! Which means no more... So, if all the other assets go up (dubious), then my gold %-age holdings go down. If gold goes WAY UP (say to $5000 in real 2015 dollars), yeah, OK, I will sell some. Some.
Rest easy (TPTB) that my gold is a small portion of my overall holdings, I thought I had explained that earlier.
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... With respect, TPTB, there's no way I am selling my gold. 5000 years + suggests a prudent holding is just smart. I am less able to predict the future than you are. You are an able and very smart programmer and observer. Which is great, most of the points you raise re the Knowledge Age seem about right. But, it may not happen. No one knows. Diversification.But, I keep an eye on what you and M.A. write, because there appears to be truth there. * * * TPTB! Please don't push CC to close his thread! His thread runs excellent interference for mine, helps keep things almost on track around here... |
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Unless it is very obvious that there would be a better crypto-candidate, should Bitcoin fail I would be OUT. At least for a while.
On some of the other threads (in "Economics") there is talk of better coins coming. We'll see.
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It does not have any real story . We humans are making a real story about it!!  I don't know if that's true... Most of the gold in the universe, I have read, was created in supernovae and/or large stars colliding. Gold (and platinum, etc.) is truly "star stuff", Supernova Born. And much of the gold and platinum-group metals sank to the core of the Earth when it was still hot. |
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Venezuela is a place where ugly things are happening, and the near-future looks to be even worse. Chavez/Maduro have so entrenched themselves (via ELECTIONS, among other things) that they look to be there for a LONG time.
I am by no means an expert on Venezuela. For a short time (three years or so in the 1990s) I sold auto parts to a manufacturer's rep there, and I visited twice. I saw that it was corrupt (the old two parties). I guess Venezuelans got tired of them.
But what they have now is far worse. And, as pointed out above, oil is down and crime is way up. Things will probably worse before they get better.
I do not wonder when I see "S.O.S. Venezuela" written on cars in my city.
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I've noticed here in the Philippines, the females are vehemently anti-abortion and anti-birth control. It is very, very difficult to get them to take birth control pills and they are not that happy about using a condom. These are real women who want to have the real happiness of bearing children and raising a family. My own mother criticizes me when I don't force the women I am involved with to use birth control pills!
How would, within your "Knowledge Age," such women compete with the "career woman"? I will allow TPTB to speak for himself, but women choosing to have babies (vs. a career) may very well be making the knowledgeable choice. Humanity must reproduce to be a going concern. Happy women tend to make happy mothers, who make happier children, who are then more likely to be positive and productive people (over-generalizing of course). Not all "careers" are created equal. |
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SpartanBit
Very nice video! I have a Ledger Nano, and it was interesting to see the company in action. Obviously I wish them well, and I look forward to buying another Ledger soon. I am very happy with mine.
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Yes, is very f*cked the situation here. 
A week ago, a woman stabs an old woman to stole her a package of diapers (That she bought doing row by hours) , that happened in a supermarket near my house.
A few years ago wasn't so insecure like now... 
So sad, but this will only get worse, people won't change... Typically in history we see that crime goes up when economies go down sharply. TODAY, WTI Crude Oil fell briefly under $40 / bbl. Lowest since 2009. Oil at around $40 (it bounced back up a small amount) means that Venezuela is likely to be hurting for a long time. And CHINA will not come to their rescue. China rescues NO ONE.* * * The stock market finally cratered in the past two days, over 5% here in the USA. |
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Anyone live there and want to sell these bills and make some money? I am willing to pay over the black market exchange rate for a couple stacks of these bills if someone is willing to pack them up and ship them to the U.S.
LOL! I now wish I had saved up a bunch of those old 1,000,000 Peruvian Inti banknotes (1980s). At then end (before they made a new currency, again...) they were worth about a buck. While Peru's hyperinflation was raging, you could get all kinds of denomination: the 50,000 intis note was worth something on one visit, the next time we went it was worth nearly ZERO. |
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