Well that's pretty handy. Tomorrow (11/28) at 2pm EST is the predicted split...though if the hash rate keeps increasing it could come a bit sooner. |
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I really don't see how it would go up until ASICs are out..and since I'm sure there will be a number of GPUs turning off, I can only suspect that the difficulty will decrease. This is, of course, ignoring price changes...but I haven't seen substantial volatility too recently, so my guess is that it won't have much of an effect on difficulty/mining yet (even if the price keeps going up).
This next week should give us some insights though!
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Excellent progress so far everyone. 3 weeks into the offering and we've sold 767 Notes, which is enough for 7 Single SCs so far.  Just a reminder, first dividends are set to be paid Friday (11/30). I'll make sure to be online that day to ensure everyone is paid properly. |
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Date Paid: November 24th 2012
Order Number: 13592
Trade-In (Y/N): N
Qty SC Jalapeno: -
Qty SC Mini Single -
Qty SC Single: 1
Qty SC Mini Rig: -
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I'm not suggesting he is a botnetter. I know he is a botnetter, he paid BTC 20 for the custom miner from a guy on Silk Road that installs itself on machines through a trojan horse and makes them into dedicated workers.
[...]
The people that run the botnets don't care if it's CPU or GPU, but they are more interested in harvesting good GPU machines. With most recent machines sporting some kind of GPU, they are actively being milked.
Check some of the stats individual people are getting on pools. A single individual that has 300 GH/s surely does not have all these machines in his own office.
Cool stuff. I wonder how sustainable the botnets actually are over time. Even so, I don't think "botnetting" ASIC devices will be all that possible until the general public utilizes them daily (assuming it ever reaches that point). They're way too much of a niche device, tailored to a subset of the bitcoin community. To presume these botters are going to utilize ASICs attached to PCs undetected is a bit absurd....though not impossible. |
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Analagous criticisms apply to bitcoin. Any system generating enough fees to deter attackers would also deter legitimate users, i.e. the only way to adequately protect bitcoin is to destroy it.
Since you seem awfully sure of yourself in this thread, explain [in detail] the arguments behind your latest statement. This should help to show us your thinking processes when developing an argument...and also shouldn't be a problem if you know what you're talking about  |
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Hmm... Korb Investments... Member of the mining cabal I see ↑. I understand why my statements may not have "made much sense." As a miner, you are paid to not understand them.
Ah, I see why your "ignore" button is so darkly colored now. Instead of making insightful posts to show why I am mistaken, you've resorted to " durr, you don't understand me". You've been presented with factual statements and definitions as to why Bitcoin cannot be a Ponzi Scheme, yet you're still arguing. Why? Obviously I must be missing something in this thread... |
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And people who lack the intellectual capacity to support their arguments with logic will quickly resort to misdirection and eventually trolling in an attempt to mask their shortcomings.
Let's review, since you missed it the last time OP wrote
Although I don't think bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, I think it does make some sense to see it that way.
The question is: 'why do people make a mental association between A and B (even though A and B are not the same)' You responded by saying that A and B are not the same. This indicates that you have trouble differentiating between logical reasoning and reasoning via analogies and symbols. On reviewing your writing, I believe you suffer from cognitive limitations. (e.g. Asperger's) I don't have anything more to say to you, other than a suggestion that you seek help for your condition. Sorry Cunicula...having just read this entire thread, I must say I agree with BTC-Joe. His statements are right on point when describing a "Ponzi Scheme" and how most members react to the phrase. After that, your posts haven't made much sense and have instead resulted in insults instead of thought out and flowing statements.  |
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Well thought out posts do indeed trump quantity. And I look for that over tenure on this site any day. You seem to have your head in the game about this, so I imagine this will go well. That said, I wish you the best in your venture. I can't say I'll be joining in on the fun given I've got my own business to worry about  I've got this thread watched, so keep posting detailed info. I'd like to see where this thread (and your business) goes --Korbman |
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On a more positive note, sales of Contracts are doing very well - much better than we anticipated. We have already ordered additional ASIC Hardware and are very close to ordering more! We are very excited about the new upcoming technology and we hope all of you are too. After receiving many requests to purchase more than the (25) Indefinite or (40) 1-Year Contracts we had previously limited, we decided to run some numbers and feel that we can raise this to satisfy our customer's requests without depreciating the value of our Contracts!
One thing I've learned while running my own business is that talk is cheap. As a potential investor, who are you ordering your devices from? Do you have any receipts for the transactions? In other words, prove that you are indeed generating interest...or are you just trying to bump your thread while pretending to do well I'm not trying to be harsh or anything. People who have followed me or my fund know I love detail...and I'm critical of people who show nothing to their investors except what they write on a forum. |
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If not, then it's possible to own a machine with ASIC already attached.
Absolutely. I'm not saying that taking over the device isn't possible, I'm saying that keeping it undetected would be difficult. My guess is that ASIC devices won't be customized to go slower, such as having a Jalapeno go 3GH/s instead of 4.5GH/s just be tweaking it (though someone tell me if they have proof otherwise). That said, if you've got one Single and suddenly it's not mining for your own account anymore, something tells me you might venture a look at what's going on. |
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This argument is mildly pointless.
An ASIC botnet? Bitcoin ASICs can be used for nothing but mining, subverting a machine used for one purpose will be quickly detected and rectified. It's not like a computer which can and will be left on for long periods of time, while idle.
You have your miner up and running, you expect it to give X performance. As soon as it doesn't do that, you check why. This would be a terrible "botnet".
Precisely on point. The equipment purchased for my fund is something that will be monitored 24/7 to ensure overall stable revenue (after accounting for difficulty, etc). And .... You're assuming regular folks won't one day be able to buy ASIC just as any plug-n-play devices at a reasonable price.
Shouldn't be too hard to code something to run only when idled or use x amount of resources.
.... won't be possible since A) the devices will never be idled and B) any variation in hashing rate will immediately draw my attention. It's one thing to have a GPU in your system for multiple purposes that can be utilized without the owners consent...but to utilize a standalone device (outside your computer) that only does one thing without the owner's knowledge? Not very likely... |
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People in general underestimate just how much work is involved in operating your own business. Those who dream of opening their own business so they don't have to answer to anyone and can work part-time are in for a rude shock and extremely likely to fail.
+1 I really wish this could be ingrained in anyone looking to start a business...bitcoin or not. Even I thought starting up mine would be easy, but as I generated my "To Do" list I found out quite quickly that this was no easy task. If you want your business to be started correctly and taken seriously, you've got to spend the time to be thorough...and that takes a lot of work. |
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I agree with the majority of the statements laid out here, though I do have just a bit to add.
To me, the most meaningful aspect in a business venture is transparency. Having a WOT account doesn't cut it. If you want me to invest in you, I want to know every detail about yourself and your business. In WOT, JohnDoe99 could have a 500+ rating from all his micro-transactions and other trades...but he may really suck at running a business. If that happens and his business goes sour, I want to know who I invested in to get my money back (if possible).
I understand the whole "anonymity" aspect with Bitcoin, and I don't have a problem with it when it comes to the general public. But if you're looking to raise money for a business or other project, I want to know who you are. To me, resistance in this area means you've got something to hide. It doesn't matter if I'm looking to invest 1 BTC or 500 BTCs... just as I am in real life, I don't invest in something I don't know. Anyone who has read through my Fund info knows I'm all about detail.
That said, I generally still agree with everything else noted in the intro. Get to the know the community...make meaningful posts...show people you're not some dumbass troll. If you make valid, well thought-out, arguments, meaningful posts, and you post elsewhere on the forums besides the 'Securities' section, then that indicates to me that you're invested and interested in this community.
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You are making some progress, 744 shares and counting! The whole GLBSE mess has certainly turned off many potential investors.
Slowly but surely building up! And you're quite right. Back in August I was thinking this would be easy...I mean, if people can invest $5 million into a ponzi scheme, how hard could it be to raise $100k for a legitimate business strategy?  Oh the things I've learned in 3 months... |
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GPU miners took a big risk by investing time and money into this project at an early stage.
Though I agree with the rest of your argument, I don't agree with this statement. If we're talking riskiness (on a scale of 1 [least] to 5 [more] risk), then I'd scale it like this: CPU - 1 GPU - 1 FPGA - 4 ASIC - 5 The reasoning behind this is because CPUs and GPUs can easily be used for other things besides mining. It was [is] super easy to just set up some software and mine with whatever current hardware you have in your system. Even if you invested quite a bit into GPUs specifically for mining, you can still quickly and easily resell the hardware when you're done with it because it serves secondary purposes. FPGAs can still be used in other situations besides mining, but they require quite a bit of work to reprogram them for another task. ASICs, on the other hand, serve one purpose. If they're developed specifically for hashing on the bitcoin network, then they will be completely useless if bitcoin disappears. Reselling them requires pandering to a specific niche market. |
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What would this do to the value of coins? I have ~2.7 coins (Can hit three by morning or noon tomorrow).
Sell or keep?
Keep. Or invest What with this 25 coin blocks I've heard about and the ASIC's, will coins be worth more or less later on?
Speculation is pointed toward "worth more". First, ignoring the 25 coin blocks, value spikes down for a week to two weeks before climbing up and stabilizing at around 175-300% of what value is now.
The trade off would be the payout rate would be lower due to higher difficulty. So basically, close to the same rate in USD per (unit of time), but you get larger, less frequent pay-outs.
So, I've read this statement a number of times and I'm not entirely sure what you're assuming. Payout rate would be lower due to higher difficulty? Larger, less frequent payouts?  Second, with the 25 coin blocks. The lower block requirement allows solo miners to dominate the market, since it would mean it would be less than eight months for payout with a Jalapeno or similar, which lowers pool reliability, and potentially cuts out a sizable portion of the lower-end miners. Part-time gamers with one or two GPU's that they run at night and during work/school to fund more games (Like me) would walk away before putting more wear on their system since it won't be worth it.
A split in the reward (from 50 to 25) doesn't correlate to block "requirements"...that's where difficulty comes in. Everything about mining bitcoins will be exactly the same as it is now, except instead of receiving 50 Bitcoins when you find a block, you get 25 instead. Last guess is that the system is not prepared for such a large power increase and will tank down to about that of the USD (I'd say $2-3) for a few months before rising back to about ~$15 after many people stop mining. However, if people are still making money (Even a little) and aren't being inconvenienced, they'll likely keep their ASIC running, so it could bottom out and stay there, which, provided the coins come faster, is perfectly fine.
A chicken is worth a chicken, whether you value it at $35 USD or 200 CNY.
The opposite actually. The "system" is very much prepared (and lustfully anticipating) the large power increase. The price won't get lower than it is now unless large sums of bitcoins are dumped into markets...and then those of us on the forums will spend time buying them all back up Overall, you're missing out on quite a substantial bit of information. I'd suggest searching and reading through the majority of Mining Speculation and Economic Speculation posts...they'll have answers to pretty much all of your questions. |
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Fantastic post again Organofcorti. If I had bitcoins to donate, I would Keep up the great work..I've got your website bookmarked! |
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I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)
Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles. And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital ) |
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Josh already stated that the 20k chips was more than enough to fulfill all current preorders (as of a couple of weeks ago)... so the existing orders are some combination of the above units, but not enough to use up 20k chips.
Which is awesome news since it puts us right on track to meet my predictions from my October Analysis |
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