Hahaha, that's pretty shitty...but still funny  Some people have nothing better to do than troll on the interwebz |
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The early Muslims are credited with inventing distillation and could distill just about anything - from alcohol to perfume. Hygiene is very important in the Muslim world so they invented and manufactured soap - centuries before the West - and hundreds of bathhouses were built throughout Muslim cities.
They understood the fundamentals of light and how we see, and gave us the camera obscure. They invented algebra and worked out the angle of the tilt of the earth. They built the first windmill, pioneered the concept of the crank rod, and designed the first ever torpedo.
Muslim creativity also led to the invention of a unique instrument called the astrolabe -- it could find the direction of Mecca, tell the time and, with the help of the stars, navigate you across deserts and oceans. But perhaps most important of all they pursued the cause of knowledge, translating and preserving the works of the ancients and building the world's largest libraries -- their 'houses of wisdom'.
That and so much more. The Arabic world was a fantastic place to live centuries ago. As my favorite Astrophysicist noted, it's all about Fundamentalism. I'll just leave this here  - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oxTMUTOz0w |
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Systems Administrator |
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Don't forget the ASIC order #'s started around ~1600. My estimate is the total network hashrate will be around 400TH/s by Jan 2013.
Already know. The majority of those orders are fakes or incomplete. They can't be used to create an accurate model of future hash rates. Any backing behind your estimate, or is it just a hunch? |
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Does it seem like at times that certain members of this community are protected?
I would imagine that Theymos is protected haha. But other than that, definitely people are protected...at least from the little stuff. You'd have to reallllyyyy mess up as a mod/admin/"super user" to fall into the scammer category. It's indeed just a forum, but it would be awkward, if business sections was not fair. Ideally it should be as neutral (6 confirmations?  ) to everything as bitcoin is. You don't just pick a side... A panel of 11 neutral people, and you need at least 6 confirmations to convict them of being a scammer (or general asshole) |
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Seems to be a hint to availability/function BFGMiner is the one that works best so far, but I'm sure CGMiner will work just as well when the code is added. From BFL_JoshGood find, thanks for posting that. |
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I haven't tried to order mining equipment in BTC but does BFL or other vendors adjust their prices in BTC to match an increasing USD-BTC exchange rate? If they don't do it, they what is the reason to not just exchange the BTCs you get into $$$ and buy with $$$? For the same amount of BTCs you might get 6 rigs instead of 5. I've noticed that your financials list $350,000 as the monetary goal. At the current rate, this goal can be achieved by issuing about 30,000 bonds.
BFL uses BitPay to instantly convert received BTC to USD. So, let's say I want to buy a rig right now with BTCs. Butterfly Labs would redirect me to their BitPay site. At current rates, a rig is $30,247 ($29,899 + $348 s/h). BitPay would charge me 2398.7470 Bitcoins.  BFL doesn't have to deal with BTC at all...they just get the cash from BitPay after converting at current market rates. To that end, converting back and forth between normal currency and BTC has a number of limitations. Aside from fees (which would add up quite quickly), Mt. Gox has a monthly withdrawal limitation of $50,000 (I'm verified there). Even if I sat on $50k cash, there comes the problem of moving it (which incurs more fees) and is a very very easy way to quickly gather government suspicion. The ease and simplicity of working solely in BTC makes this venture not only profitable for everyone involved, but a lot less complex as well. |
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whichever company has produced the asic first would be stupid not to wait with shipping until another company has finished it's asic.
mining in the meantime will make a fortune...
So company A creates ASICs, and starts mining on them. The difficulty triples (at least), and the entire network hates them. Company B comes out with an ASIC, and starts shipping, so Company A stops mining, and starts shipping? I can guarantee you, no one would ever buy from Company A again, and there would be many returns. Agreed. It's one thing to test out the hardware a bit here and there to make sure it meets specs, but if it turns out Company A was mining on the hardware to make some quick cash I'd be super pissed...mainly because they're now selling me a used product. |
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@Korb It's not that you're missing something. That's a good assessment on the ROI and the decision to buy or not to which I completely agree. I was talking about people that already pre-ordered and the race to start mining first and about people that would need to decide to keep the devices running once they will have them or buy more. And how difficulty and electricity price will influence all that. Not everybody has 30k to buy a minirig. If I run your 100x difficulty example through the calculator at http://bitcoinx.com/profit/index.php, with a 25 BTC reward, a 4.5 Gh/s Jalapeno and a 25W energy cost (jala + a netbook) I get all my profits eaten up by electricity. Power cost per time frame: 2.74 USD Revenue per time frame: 2.92 USD ... less power costs: 0.18 USD Ah Right, I see what you're saying that does make sense. Hopefully we won't have to deal with a 100x difficulty increase anytime soon |
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You get overwhelming student loans debt.
I put in as many chocolate coins that i can shove in
You get empty chocolate coin wrappers. I put in a "Mr. Hands" video |
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Hey Korb, what about the exchange rate changes?
Will you lower the number of bonds?
Actually, exchange rates don't really need to factor into this because everything can be done in Bitcoins, which is the beauty of it. The only thing the exchange rate changes is the price of the Mini Rigs in coins (right now, each is about 2500 BTC, which is a really good deal). Everything mined with the rigs is already in BTC, and is easily transferred back to the investors. Taking the exchanges out of the equation actually eliminates a lot of variance and uncertainty. As for 50,000 bonds, you're correct in thinking that's quite a bit of capital. If everything works out, I won't need that much by a long shot, which is why I established an 'Early Buyback' clause (I purchase bonds I don't need back before March 2013 at 1.005x the Par [original] Value). Overall, I've estimated that only about 10% of all bonds would be converted into USD, which would be used for real world transactions to cover storing the Rigs in a datacenter, bandwidth, insurance, and any maintenance. I won't know the final details until a) the IPO passes the GLBSE board, b) I know how many bonds were purchased, and c) I have the rigs ordered. |
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Ok, so I understand electricity implications on mining, but I don't understand why it's such a big deal...why is it so game changing?
Let's say I've got a 1.5TH/s mini rig at 1500 watts. At 1500 watts, I'm cranking through 36kWh per day, or 1,080kWh per month. I pay $0.15 per kWh, so that's $162 a month.
Even at 100x difficulty, the rig would still pull down almost $1,000 per month...so $162 is just a fraction of profits.
But why would I want to buy a $30,000 rig when the payback period is over 30 months?...electricity doesn't even come to mind when I think about ROI because it's so minuscule.
What am I missing?
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Im glad these are more like traditional bonds not tied to mh/s which constantly drops. Good luck. Thanks! I'm hoping it's received well compared to other mining bonds because, well, it's an actual bond. It's not for MH/s or GH/s, it's a loan to purchase company equipment. |
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Then lets do the 4x max per difficulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping. If 30 of the estimated 46.3 TH/s from BFL source go live, that puts the Network total to 53.144 Thash/s At 23.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 3,060,648 in 279 blks Add 43.6% to the Estimated Difficulty. At 53.2Thash/s the Estimated difficulty will be 4,395,090 add 6.5% for every 2 weeks that those 30Thash/s are not added to the network. S o if those 30Thash/s hit the network lets say November 7th 2012. We will see a new Estimated Difficulty the following week November 14th. Assuming the network speed at that time being 53.2Thash/s the difficulty would be 5,309,047.00I expect that there will be another 30Thash/s getting onto the network during difficulty cycle that started November 14th.By November 24th expect to see an Estimated difficulty increase between 8,302,870 and 8,703,651.The max potential increase in dificulty cycle and assume that there will be 3 difficulty cyles within two 4 weeks from shipping would be 4x of the previous deficulty. If we got a difficulty change in 5 days then 14 days the difficulty would be at a wapping 12,242,592 for the first difficulty increase ( 5-7 Days). Followed by the next estimated difficulty 4x 12242592 = 48,970,368. My personal numbers are calculated at the difficulty being as follows. November 7-14th 2012 @ 5,309,047
November 18th - 24th 2012 @ 8,703,651My personal maximum estimate because of other factors such as more ASIC's being added to the network then estimated. November 7-14th 2012 @ 12,242,592
November 18th-24th 2012 @ 48,970,368Note: This is my personal augmented reality perspective on the situation. Now THAT'S how you argue a point...by throwing down some arithmetic and reasoning to show how you got to your estimates Though I'm not sure I can picture reaching your "end of November" max numbers, I'm 100% with you on the minimums. |
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I read your paper, it was very good. I came up with a similar number in August, 8x, but for slightly different reasons. I just can't find the link where I posted it....  Thanks! But now the data is outdated, so I'll be reworking it this month at some point. I'll keep the original as a reference and see how much as changed in 2 months. That might also give me a glimpse of the future. Always happy to read other people's analyses as well, since it helps to give me a different perspective. If you find your post, link it here! I wonder if Inaba made his calculations of "under 10x" before or after he knew of the final specs...
I thought about that the other day as well. Even so, under 10x just means that the network rate will be under ~250TH/s [+/- 30TH/s] for the beginning of the ASIC changeover...which I still think is accurate even after the 50% increase for BFL. |
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I understand what you're saying, but I don't think that you drew the correct assumption. As a gamer, if I'm willing to drop 400-600 bucks on a new video card every time one releases, I shouldn't have any problem buying hardware in that same price range if I want to mine.... I could still see some fractional generation of btc as from a video card to 'test it out' enough to decide to buy hardware or not. At some point it becomes a way to earn vs a hobby.
And I'd rather spend on a product that will let me game while mining... Instead of having to choose between income and gaming time.
Right, but you're a dedicated miner with disposable income (or at least this is my assumption). What I'm saying is that the bar to entry has been raised for the average joe-shmoe, which makes it that much more likely they won't develop the same interest in bitcoin mining as me or you. |
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I put in a request for comical cartoon weaponry for my new minion Thomas.
HAHA yay Thomas! You get a very clean canary from the coal mine.
I put in a coin-sized ACME portable hole.
You get an exercise ball. I put in incriminating evidence from a crime scene. |
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That will make ASICs look like a good investment with a reasonable value of say, 10 +/-2 months for the time needed to recoup initial investment. A lot of pre-orders are in and when the "real" difficulty hits that ROI could jump to 12, 16, 24 months ...
That could definitely be the case. And if that happens either the miners will stick it out for that long hoping the difficulty falls when others leave, or we'll see some hardware hit the market at a discounted price. |
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You get a glass of water from the local water machine.
I put in a big mac, large coke and a side of onion rings.
You get diabetes I put in a rusty hacksaw |
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Holding some, selling some...but I also have cash ready to be converted back into BTC if so desired
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