Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.
I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.
I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all. That is an area of pure speculation. Right there. Regardless of what the payback period is, this offer still allows people like myself to be a part of mining (although not a very hands-on one) and be an active part of the bitcoin community. What method will you use for bookkeeping and payouts? Can we request payouts to a particular address? Do you plan to list on btct.co and allow shares to be traded? Thanks, Dave If those answers are not in the original post, I have failed as a writer. That's bad, bad news for a professor. I will use the blockchain. It will tell who paid, how much they paid, and who I should send the payments back to. It is the full audit trail, and it is viewable by anyone. You are anonymous or not, under your control. In time, I will write some software to directly read the blockchain and construct the payout TXns. In the present, I will just read on the web and click the mouse endlessly to make things go. The link in the original post leads to a transaction on blockchain.info that shows when I paid for the avalon. If you create a new payment address that is only used for this venture, the blockchain.info report on that address will show how much you have paid in, and how much your have received back. I will only pay to the address that bought into the venture. I can manually cash out someone, and they can sign up with a new address, and that will accomplish an address change. For a large group, this will become very tedious. You can look at the signup address, 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E, in blockchain to see how many people have signed up. It's a pretty quick read right now  I don't envision a way to trade this offer. |
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Don't be upset. Just run proper calculations with http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ taking into account a) current difficult, b) difficulty projection based on last two weeks increase, c) profitability decline, d) hashrate taking into account you won't get 24/7 uptime You will see that 99% it will be impossible to get 250 BTC back in 50 days with batch 2 Avalon. I hope I don't come across as upset. That calculator is a cool web page. Thanks for sharing it. I don't really have any idea of what numbers to plug into it. My electricity rates are below 8.2¢ / kwh. |
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There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon. I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.
This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day. I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest. jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number. 1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days. If that is too slow, don't buy in. Don't use my estimates, get your own. Your mileage may vary. BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.) jgarzik found 2 blocks in 1 day, and made BTC50 in 1 day, why aren't you including that in your numbers. Those numbers suggest a full payback in 5 days with the 1/250 share model. Thanks for mentioning them. I don't think I will have income that high. He was first, there will be 900 Avalons online when I am operational. |
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Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.
I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.
I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all. That is an area of pure speculation. A lot of bright people read these forums. Feel free to quote one of the more credible projections and build a case for a lower price. I assume it is fairly transparent that I want to fund an Avalon Batch #3 purchase, but my only asset at the moment is the Batch #2 confirmed purchase. I am willing to consider any reasonable changes to this offer with a view of producing liquidity soon. |
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There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon. I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.
This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day. I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest. jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number. 1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days. If that is too slow, don't buy in. Don't use my estimates, get your own. Your mileage may vary. BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.) |
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Next the conductivity tests!
thermal or electric conductivity? Electrical. You probably could do it with thermal, though. which of these 2 is harder to fake (by using impure silver or using core of different material(s)). I'd love to have some fake silver coins. Anyone have any? There is a factory in China that makes fake gold coins, so far as I know it has been making them for many years. They are made of tungsten, and gold plated. The density of Gold and Tungsten is nearly exactly the same, far to close to call. The electrical conductivity is very different, and so too I imagine is the thermal conductivity. Goldmoney.com use a sonar device to check all their bars for suspicious inconsistencies, and I am sure you would see a core of different material, but I am not sure if you would be able to tell if the whole bar was made of Tungsten and gold plated, as seems certain some are. So far as silver is concerned, there are (I suppose) many alloys that would have the right density, but the right conductivity would be impossible to fake - silver is the best metalic conductor known. I believe an induced eddy current method could work very well. One of the most amazing demos is to hang a gold coin by two threads, so it will swing but not spin. Place a super magnet just past the place where the coin will rest when it stops. Lift the coin back, release it, and watch as it swings into the magnet and comes to a dead stop. This is a variation of the "induced eddy current method" and it's totally cool. |
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Nice offer. Btw, you actually bought 4 units?
I only had funds for 1 unit. And Walletbit confused me a lot. So 3 of the purchases were not real, and were cancelled. I didn't expect my shopping cart to be public information, how did you find out? |
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If you're just transfering bitcoin its okay.
Give me a credible citation and I'll do away with the tax part. Also, i can't believe you're valuing it at 250 bitcoin.
ok. How about this. There are two auctions on eBay. I'll calculate the total cost in BTC this way: The final cost of the eBay auction for the USD equivalent, and the weighted average of the bid price on Bitfloor going back at least 1 hour before the eBay close, and at least 50 executions. and I will round down to the next smallest 10 btc. For example, $10,200 / 78.45 --> 1/130 of the income per BTCI'll even be generous and give you the better of the two deals. http://www.ebay.com/itm/140937986794?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2649http://www.ebay.com/itm/130873536329?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2648Also, it will not be generating 5 bitcoins a day for 50 days. Batch 3 is scheduled to start shipping 22 days after batch 2.
Give me a link for an analysis. |
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Most likely the difference in calculations are caused by impurity or different density of water due to temperature conditions. The error of +/- 2% might be caused by other factors and measurement tolerances. The scale is not laboratory grade but for most purposes even the cheapest 8$ scales are extremely accurate compared to what was available in labs 15 years ago.
Um, scales in labs 15 years ago could measure the weight of fingerprints. Yes. And the evaporation rate of the water. Those balances cost $5,000. Probable source: https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1619194&postcount=30I teach analytical chemistry. Undergrad analytical labs have balances that read 0.000 1 g. Well respected manufacturers include Mettler and Sartorius. Troemmler also comes to mind, though I don't remember if they make balances, or only calibration weights. I have my students do a very similar lab, and at that sensitivity level we can watch evaporation as it happens. We need to know the barometric pressure, to account for the buoyancy of the objects in air. The next level of sensitivity, 0.000 01 g, escalates the cost to about $25,000. |
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Someone must pay taxes on this income. This is complicated and evolving. If you are anonymous, I will deduct approximately 30% (to be determined) and give it to the IRS. If you provide your name, street address, email address, telephone number, and tax ID, and sign this information with the same address that I send payment to I will not deduct for taxes. I will fulfill any legal and tax obligations that I have in this area, including those I learn about in the future. I would think you only have to pay taxes if you exchanged it to fiat? Till its converted its not really income is it? I don't know. Has anyone checked on this? I'm thinking back to some comments made by Colossus on the Second Life currency exchange that he ran. If I can verify your opinion, I will keep a very low profile and not even look in the direction of the IRS. I absolutely will deal only in bitcoin, and not fiat. |
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What is the date and time this unit got confirmation from Walletbit of being fully paid for?
D
Receipt This is to confirm that you have created an order at Avalon ASIC of 56.25712356 BTC Payment Details Date: February 18, 2013 07:35:01 PM Amount Paid: 56.25712356 Batch Number: 18978 Txid: 5268c88176f24dcaae4e862e9ec1ad696a6915a20f1de9a7fe7042ad9b2f3b9b Thanks for choosing WalletBit Need Assistance? We're happy to help by phone at US: (702) 799-9950 or DK: 36 96 56 94, Monday to Friday 9:00am to 1:00 pm EST, or by email. |
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An event has happened, and this is notice that the auction is closing in 48 or more hours. Auction is partially closed atl block 235,532, which is expected near the time of my birthday. Bids included in later blocks will not win. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Number+of+minutes+until+3%3A15+AM%2C+May+10+divided+by+10Fixed price sale is closed. At this time, I have stopped accepting new payments to account 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E. I will open a new address to auction additional shares. The new details are posted below.High bids listed here. Hand crafted post, some delays exist. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I successfully purchased an Avalon Batch #2 unit, Order Number 2997, on Feb 18, 2013. I desire to purchase an Avalon Batch #3 unit now. Time is of the essence.
The Bitcoin address that transferred the funds for that order is visible to anyone on the blockchain.
For batch #3, a 3 module unit (63 GH/s) costs ฿72.36 and a 4 module unit (85GH/s) costs ฿99.14. I am willing to share my mining income from the Batch #2 unit in order to fund the Batch #3 purchase. You will be able to support a mining operation without investing the full amount of a miner.
No one knows whether a competing company will make an entry into the market, so it is not possible to make good estimates of future income. Other companies may experience delays and we will be very content. An unsuspected governmental player may turn on a large, privately developed farm and devastate us all.
However, this is a really good deal. I expect to have my Batch #2 unit under way before any Batch #3 units are shipped.
The Offer
You may purchase 1/100 (1 share) of the income of my Avalon Batch #2 ASIC Miner for each BTC 0.8683 paid to address 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E
(This is the direct replacement cost + 20% for early availability and make-ready for administration and utilities.)
You may buy any number of shares that you choose.
You may purchase shares at any time that you chose.
The transaction information at blockchain.info determines the time and amount of purchase transactions.
I will manage the unit and mine it as well as I am able.
I will only pay out from actual income.
I may mine in any mixture of mining pool or solo mining.
The system will have downtime, and you will not have recourse.
I will cover all operating costs.
I can walk to 2 wind turbines from here. Electricity is not that expensive.
I may buy back your shares at the same price at any time and for any reason.
I may allow overbooking in order to buy a 4 module Batch #3 unit.
Any buy-back will be Last Purchased, First Refunded and sent to the original purchasing address. Buy soon, not late!
The shared income will be paid from address 18bLcVkviErQi75zB8X39jZXxHNpSZggdC
Refunds will be paid from address 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E
I will pay by epochs. A new epoch begins when someone purchases shares.
An epoch ends when I receive mining income or when I refund shares; it may end each week or month by declaration.
No gaps exist between epochs.
You may remain anonymous. I don't need to know who you are, I will pay according to the blockchain.
Bitcoin is not taxed
Edited 2013-03-29 19:28:07 UT
I just made a deposit of 7.680025 BTC into the account. The first deposit, 0.9906 BTC, is also mine, so I have 9.985748 shares. These shares will be paid just like the others, and are the mechanism to guarantee the electric bill and other expenses. In time, I will make another payment so that I own exactly 10 shares. |
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My avalons arrived yesterday out of the blue. Yifu said the same thing, they were shipped.
DHL couldn't find them in their system I called a bunch of times. Even the morning they were delivered DHL found nothing in their system. So just because DHL can't find it doesn't mean it's not on it way.
Thank you for posting. Now that you have the package & attached paperwork, can you see a tracking number, and does it give any information that you wish you had earlier? |
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If there is enough interest in ordering a 5th unit, then I am Ok with that. The only reason why I stopped accepting deposits is because I did not think wed get enough BTC to get another. We have about 20 BTC in group funds. Please reply ITT if you are interested in investing in one more unit. If the 20 BTC + peoples replies here is close to 75 BTC, I will start accepting more deposits this evening. Now.. back to work  Bernie madoff used this tactic too. Act like the scheme is closed, then suddenly "oh, you're in luck, it's re-opened right now just for you, now send all your money" I can't imagine those refunds you talked about are going out any time soon now, i'm somehow not surprised. Frankie, you are the one who is playing out of bounds here. You can check that he did send refunds. The addresses of his investors is posted. For you to make these derogatory posts that disagree with the documentation is improper. One of the interesting things about Bitcoin is that the books are open for view to anyone in the world. You may easily see the transaction that refunded my money. The transactions have a time stamp and you can match it up with the postings in this thread. |
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I can still put avalon batch 3 into the cart. So maybe if theres still enough interest the groupbuy can be extended? Only an idea, i dont have bitcoins anymore but some users showed interest.
When I bought a Batch #2 unit, I found that units came up for sale at random times for a while. That is, the store changed back and forth from sold out to units in stock. This might happen with Batch #3 as well. I notice that OP returned my original payment (thank you) and I also notice that the FUD spreaders have already started work on this thread (wish they would only post what they can back up). I think it would work to our benefit if you kept our payments for several days, so that you can move quickly if another purchase opportunity presents itself. |
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I measured the density of my silver/gold coins unsing this setup  these are the results:  Here's how I did it: - Weigh the coin itself
- Put container with water and the coin attached to string on scale and reset scale to 0
- pull on string, effectively measuring weight of coin minus weight of displaced water
- calculate density (assuming water density is 1g/cm³) by dividing weight of coin by volume of coin (equals volume of displaced water)
I used a cheap scale I ordered from Hong Kong for around €5. Yet the results seem to be quite reassuring (error margin (EDIT: of my measurements) seems to be around 1%-2%) Comments? If you would put the spreadsheet on Google docs I might look at it more. I notice that one measurement for each coin is in disagreement with the later measurements on the coin. I would add some other calculations. From the average density of the coin, calculate the weight of water that you expect for the measured weight of the coin, also, calculate the expected weight of the coin given the measured weight of water. |
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Most likely the difference in calculations are caused by impurity or different density of water due to temperature conditions. The error of +/- 2% might be caused by other factors and measurement tolerances. The scale is not laboratory grade but for most purposes even the cheapest 8$ scales are extremely accurate compared to what was available in labs 15 years ago.
Um, scales in labs 15 years ago could measure the weight of fingerprints. Yes. And the evaporation rate of the water. Those balances cost $5,000. |
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Cut CoinHoarder some slack. Nobody twisted anybody's arm to order. He was probably up all night and day like I was (I was up 32 hours being on medicine call and stayed up another 9 hours to place my order). At this point there is nothing anyone can once they sent their BTC.
Let him send out the info in the morning. If he fails to do so then alert the mods for possible scammer alert, IP logging, etc.
Were you able to order? |
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Congrats everybody. Let's hash Yes! I can't wait to get these bad boys hashing! ATTENTION INVESTORS:The following transactions are unfortunately the unlucky people whom missed out on this group buy. Please check to see if this is you: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0HkaallvpmtRDFFSkFoS3E1RDA/edit?usp=sharingPlease get a hold of me to confirm which refund address you would like your coins sent to. I will need to go throguh all my PMs to figure out whose transactions these deposits are and that may take me a little time. If I do not hear from ya'll within a week or so and I can't find a refund address in my PMs for you, I will send these refunds back to the address from which they were sent. I am sorry everyone could not participate. Good luck with the venture. My transaction is https://blockchain.info/tx/974fb59ee584763a178ae3c72c654002bfabd60404906e809d2b080480e30d17For ease of accounting, please refund to the same address. |
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What's the total currently?
We are still at 174 BTC. I'm not sure what the price will be, so I'm still accepting investments. I would like to get at least one extra module for one of them, that would be legit! I'm going to stop accepting payments in about 20-30 minutes, because the transactions will need some time to be confirmed, and I want to make sure to get our order in.I will send 1 BTC from 16mo98ZmT2rVY6dedHU12iqJibyiUN564h as soon as the inputs are confirmed. |
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