For those of you who think it is easy to order chips and that YiFu could easily have done better and cheaper, I offer a challenge:

Make it so.

Yes, I agree.  I own an Avalon, and want to raise funds for a HashFast Baby Jet.  I want to envision a way to use my existing Avalon to build confidence in a group buy.  I can promise the income from the Avalon as a backup in case of non-delivery.

I need numbers that the community has commented upon.

For example, again neglecting a conversion to present value ( "and thus funds tied" )
1.  Remuneration for electricity:  800 W * 24 Hour / Day * 7 Day / week --> 134.4 kWh / week  At $0.085 / kWh * 1 BTC / 94.6 $ --> 0.120 7 BTC / week, or 5.31 BTC / 44 weeks.

Would anyone care to offer numbers?

I want to know the value of an Avalon miner.

I used this calculator with presets for a 3 module miner.
An additional step should be to discount each future week to the present value using some interest rate.  I have not done that step.

This gives me a value of about 70 BTC for an Avalon.

I am sure that many people would use different numbers for this.  For the power, I used 650 W * 80 GH / 65 GH --> 800 W, as it is overclocked.

I'd like to hear what other's think.

Changed options 1 hour ago:

--avalon-options 115200:24:10:d:355 --avalon-auto --avalon-freq 256-375 --avalon-temp 50

My match_work_count shows more spread:
min: 3001
max: 3288
0.5 * (3288-3001) / (3288+3001) --> 0.002_28

When the uptime is several days, these numbers become very close.

My freq dropped to 351 MHz.
The orange light is still blinking.
Temperatures are now 22, 46, 47°C
Fans are 2760, 3720, 3720 and seem to vary a lot, and the temperature wanders around also.

   [timeout] => 35


I show 3387 accepted, 4 rejects, 83372 diff1shares at 1h 11m 18s

I flashed 20130818 to an Avalon batch #2 at 11:20 CDT and kept the old settings.  I did not power off the system.  It has been running 58 minutes.

The Avalon now is at 350 MHz, up from it's typical 343-347 MHz.  Both temp2 and temp3 are at 50°C, temp1 is 22°C, the basement is 60°F.  This is hotter for temp2.  The fans are turning significantly faster, and they seem to change speeds frequently.

I think it is too soon to interpret the eligius statistics.  However, the preliminary impression is that variance is lower.

The orange led is flashing on and off at about 1 Hz.  I have never seen this behavior before.  I am curious what it means.


Edit -->

I bet it can get better.  Old config line:
--avalon-auto --avalon-freq 256-350 --avalon-temp 50

How should I incorporate the 'd' timeout option?  I have the idea that --avalon-auto & --avalon-options don't always play nice together.

I received a module early this week.  The owner had it cross-shipped to me.  It was packaged very well, in a custom made plywood box.  All cables were included.  The pins on various plugs were protected with foam. 

2.25 BTC

HashFast announced the 1st engineering run of their Baby Jet for Oct 20-30 delivery in order of payment.  The cost is $5,600, the power draw is 350 W, and the hashrate is 400 GH/s, next day shipping is approximately $200.  This is a limited production of 550 devices, and they are steadily selling.  At least 381 391 have been sold.

This pricepoint is similar to buying 5 Avalon 3 module systems at a cost of $1,120 each, with a credit for 2,900 W of electricity.

There is a lot of skepticism about pre-pay for systems at this time, and if you are a noobie who dreams of getting rich, I want to strongly discourage you from getting involved in my purchase.  I absolutely do not want to minimize the risk, and if HashFast takes the money and produces nothing I can not make it good for you.  Many ventures are promising to bring high hash rates online, and this will strongly dilute the earnings of everyone.  I am certain that the earnings, priced in BTC, will fall steadily.  It may fall so fast that this unit never earns as many BTC as it costs.  That is, it fails to achieve break-even.  

At least two fixed price group buys are open.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270853.0 waldohoover
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274055.0 DyslexicZombei
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274249.0 Moogle
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274798.0

I'm willing to collect money, administer the unit, and make the payouts.  I did this with a Batch #2 Avalon, and the hash rate as well as the payouts are visible to the public.

I offer 512 shares in a bitchain auction for 100% of the net output of 1 Baby Jet.  You may check my previous auction and see that I did return losing bids.

• If sufficient funds are paid, I will order the unit(s).  
  
• If the shop sells out or I otherwise do not place an order, I will return the funds promptly.  
  
• I may contribute my own funds to the auction.  
  
• I reserve the right to cancel the auction and return funds at any time, for any reason.
  
• I may purchase more than 1 Baby Jet from auction proceeds, and ownership will be prorated for the entire Baby Jet farm, and not restricted to a specific unit.  
  
• The auction will end when no additional units are available for sale, or at any earlier time.  
  
• I may purchase a Baby Jet with auction proceeds while the auction is still open and the winner list is not final.
  
• I may find windfall means to acquire more Baby Jet units after the auction ends, and add them to the Baby Jet farm with pro-rated earnings and shares.
  

I will stand ready to receive the machine, plug it in, and follow the instructions that are provided.  This is not a special skill, and you are not relying on any level of expertise on my part.  I anticipate that many owners will attempt to overclock or modify their devices, and that firmware updates may be issued;  these are not special skills within this community, and I may or may not do so.  I will report publicly and factually the actions that I do take.  In order to be qualified to bid, you must have these same skills to own and operate a Baby Jet yourself.

I have plugged some numbers into a mining profit calculator.  In particular, I moved the estimated delivery date to 2013/12/20.  I made similar calculations back on February 18 when I bought my Avalon, and I am making significantly less than those calculations indicated.  You should make plans that these calculations are wildly optimistic.  I do not guarantee these numbers.  I don't have any expertise in making any prediction on the future difficulty, or the future value of bitcoin.  This calculator suggests that the Baby Jet will have an end of life the week of 2014/12/26.  For purposes of this group-buy & auction, I declare that the Baby Jet has no value beginning 2014/12/26 and full ownership of it will be abandoned to me at that time.  I may chose to declare this venture closed on or after 2014/12/26 with no additional discussion or obligations.  I may re-furbish or otherwise change the Baby Jet, or leave it unchanged, and mine with it as my own private machine after ownership has been abandoned to me.

Nonetheless, this calculator suggests that a Baby Jet could earn 92 bitcoins.  A naive calculation gives each of the 512 shares a value of about 0.1796 BTC.

The 1st 2.0 BTC mined by each Baby Jet will be paid to me for establishing this auction.  I will deduct 0.10 BTC each week for electricity, internet, & housing.  If other costs arise, I will document them and deduct them.  One such cost would be any registration of bitcoin miners that is required by US, Minnesota, Texas, or other regulators.  My administrative time is free for routine operations.  When a Baby Jet is ordered, the corresponding auction proceeds become mine to do with as I choose.

The mechanics of the auction:

• You pay from an address where you can receive bitcoins and sign messages.  If you don't know how to sign messages, please don't bid, as it will make both of us unhappy.  You may want to buy 1 share, or many shares.  I have provided several addresses as a shorthand to make bids on a block of shares.
  
• It is good practice to pay from an address that you newly create and fund for this auction.
  
• I will calculate the price / share that each bid-address pays each submit-bid address.  This is calculated on the total balance, not on a per transaction basis.
  
• I will order these as equivalent 1 share bids from largest to smallest.
  
• I will count up to some integer multiple of 512 shares.  Those bids will be winning bids.
  
• There is no minimum pay-in.
  
• When a portion of a block-bid has been outbid, I will continue to hold the funds until the auction is over.  This will allow the possibility of buying more than 1 Baby Jet.
  

I do this manually.  It is tedious.  And slow.  This is an opportunity for a block-chain savvy programmer.

• The submit-bid addresses are
  
  • 512 shares 14eBzhQBYBCiDy7SV8s6iR9oUKHnBadnYH
    
  • 256 shares 1JJnWS4pc4vsrjHS1bp5NN9qdeavWsXGjm
    
  • 128 shares 1JUeHwXiXh3uPQo2gxwWhako3BftFsvwGB
    
  • 64 shares 1GYMDePfXJNBUVZ5wRbnb84FSsiMU5eumg
    
  • 32 shares 1G6vNho8Z3hAjZovHNAs4AKmCg6Wbc9gre
    
  • 16 shares 1GMTHS4u55BpJRZzSkuqLApuoG8sQSFp7L
    
  • 8 shares 11tc9cNnwLeY6xwfWsWHwSm6YaXeCCcbp
    
  • 4 shares 1Fgsy1h5MUPMdL69B42mfyhAtfeSi65HaM
    
  • 2 shares 17LoTP4vTjqi9eWvNLoDKRVZxxVEjZGGx2
    
  • 1 share 16xfBv9YHnLLqrRayAMhGzFSjXeGayFGYh
    
• The admin address is 17AMeSmnZwW1MGykLEmAngQcxqnyEfrLET.  Transactions to or from this account are not bids and are not refunds.  Do not pay to this address.
  
• The mining-proceeds address 1BiEPg9oANN8ow3wzRKftsdRsotVPk6bav will receive the mining proceeds, and initiate the payouts.
  

Yifu is alive.  The Chinese mob is interested in easy money, his team's family was approached and they took some time to protect the team.  He did not say that, without the team, no further deliveries can occur.  Someone mentioned customs, but I no longer can remember if it was Yifu, or a detractor.

He claims that things are settled enough to begin shipping again.  Some interpret this as a "to the minute" guarantee and they are beginning to feel betrayal and create their own drama.  Others take this as a general guideline in a setting of Chinese business, and are feeling hopeful.

The community is divided as to whether they believe him.  One side finds some fact that can be interpreted as bad behavior and claims it as proof, and calls for various kinds of escalation, some of which is ethical, some of which is not.

The other side notices that several interpretations can fit the known facts, such as the blockchain.

A call for additional facts, such as the manufacturing codes on any known Avalon chips, is outstanding.

In summary, it is following the story-line in the threads for Batch #1, Batch #2, and Batch #3.  The characters are the same, the personalities are the same, the angst is useless but real, and nobody can tell the future.

Meanwhile, the majority of Batch #1, #2, and #3 customers are mining away.  Burnin has received chips from Zefir's 1st chip order and he has shipped his clone units.  Performance and modification reports are arriving from the field.  In addition, the non-clone design with Avalon chips is also shipping and boards are hashing in the wild.

Meanwhile, I want to acquire 1 working chip.  

In unrelated news, HashFast has announced a pre-order of their Baby Jet for $5,600.  It is announced for October 20-30 at 400 GH/s.  They made a unit mistake on their announcement, and said 1.0 W/GH  instead of either 1.0 J/GH or 1.0 J/GH/s.  I confidently interpret this to mean that no scientist or engineer proof read that page.

A former student turned 21, and her boyfriend bought me a shot.  I have not finished my coffee, and all of this may be wrong.

I like graphs and data.  It would be interesting, to me, to know all the payment from Batch #2, and see what the blockchain can tell us.  To get that, the people who ordered the 600 units would have to divulge the transaction numbers of their payments.  I personally don't think we would get a high level of cooperation with that.  But anyway, show perhaps a timeline and all the transactions where the Batch #2 payments were inputs.

I am glad you read again.

1.75 BTC

The pattern of holes attaching the heatsink to the bottom plate is different between batch #2 and batch #2.  Batch #2 uses 7 holes, Batch #3 uses 5 holes.

Has anyone made a hole matching plate, perhaps 3 mm aluminum with countersunk holes?

The question, I think, is whether you want to bid for a share and whether that is a nice deal for you.

It gets worse.  I can't figure out how to move it, either.

   Where to?

This auction is canceled.  I will delete this topic in a day or two.

The HashFast Baby Jet is offered for sale in limited quantity, delivered in order of payment.

they ask for $5,600 payable in bitcoin.  Prepaid.  Delivery estimated for October 20-30.  Estimated hash-rate 400 GH/s.  Estimated energy efficiency 1.0 J/GH.

Previously, I sold income shares in a Batch #2 Avalon.  This Avalon is hashing, and the mining income and disbursements are visible on the blockchain.  Delivery on this Avalon was anticipated in late March and actual delivery occurred in mid July.  The actual hash rate for the Avalon is 80/65 of the advertised rate, and the earnings are less than 1/4 of the rate at the time when many people paid.

I have not placed a Baby Jet order.  This auction is an attempt to raise about 60 BTC in order to do so.  I will only sell about 1/2 of the future income for that amount.  Many people in the community have experienced regret in placing pre-paid orders.

Due to delays and ecosystem changes, purchasers of other bitcoin offerings are worried that they cannot break even on their purchases.  There is significant risk that this group buy will not work out well.  I cannot do anything to "make good" on unfortunate events.  Some Avalon owners have had smoke and sadness.  This is one example of unfortunate events.

I will receive the machine, plug it in, and follow the instructions that are provided.  This is not a special skill, and you are not relying on any level of expertise on my part.  I anticipate that many owners will attempt to overclock or modify their devices, and that firmware updates may be issued.  These are not special skills within this community, and I may or may not do so.  I will report publicly and factually the actions that I do take.

I am offering about 0.5 of the income from the BabyJet for the total price of $5,600 in shares targeted at about $25/each.  This sets the share at 0.002 (0.2%) of the net mining income.   You will have very small exposure, but you will pay approximately twice the manufacturer's price.  I will deduct an electricity fee equivalent to 350 W at at the current BTC-e exchange rate before dividing the funds. My current rates are below $0.09 / kWh but they are not guaranteed.

If sufficient funds are paid, I will order the unit.  If the shop sells out, I will return the funds promptly.  I may contribute my own funds.  I reserve the right to cancel the auction and return funds at any time, for any reason.

The mining lifetime of this unit is administratively declared as 20 weeks, and begins when the unit begins hashing.  I chose this number based on my own thoughts and cannot justify it.  During the mining lifetime, I will pro-rate the cost of 1 share and offer buy back offers from time to time.  This will give people the option to recover cash due to unforeseen circumstances.  After 20 weeks, I may quit mining at any time that I chose, and the equipment becomes fully owned by me and no liquidation & payout will occur.

The bitcoin world is difficult for both buyers and sellers.  Please be careful.  I strive to be fair and sensitive, but also to impartially follow the rules, and the thread for the previous auction may provide interesting reading for you.  I have returned bids that were clearly blunders, and I have refused to return bids that I thought were simply buyer's remorse.

• The submit-bid address to is 14eBzhQBYBCiDy7SV8s6iR9oUKHnBadnYH
  
• The admin address is 17AMeSmnZwW1MGykLEmAngQcxqnyEfrLET.  Transactions to or from this account are not bids and are not refunds.  Do not pay to this address.
  
• The mining-proceeds address 1BiEPg9oANN8ow3wzRKftsdRsotVPk6bav will receive the mining proceeds, and initiate the payouts.
  

The auction will run according to the rules that I posted last May.  My previous auction is included by reference.  I have not declared a partial winning schedule, and I may or may not do so.  I call particular attention to the fact that I may reduce or increase the number of winning bids.  

Discussion is welcome.  Links to discussions of HashFast, my previous auctions, or other matters that may help people make informed decisions are all on topic.  Factual discussions of success or disappointment may be particularly valuable.  Threats of lawsuits or violence against any vendor for any reason are off topic.  Disclosure of personal information is off topic unless it is your own (but seriously, why?)

I kept the old settings.  My file /etc/config/cgminer is very similar to the following.  I am set to fail-over, not balance, but I don't see that interpretation reading this file.  I usually have the chip frequency option set very low, perhaps 256, because the fans stop for a while when I reset things, and I want to stop building up heat.

Updated: [Firmware Version] => 20130814
about 9:00 AM CDT today.
I am watching the pool statistics reported by eligius.

No opinion yet, I'll let it run for a while.
My temp1 runs about 20-22°C, my ambient temp in the basement runs 65-68°F.

I have an Avalon.  I think that 1,500 orders have been received through their web site.

With that many cutting edge gadgets, there are failures in the field.  I have repaired 1 Avalon for a customer, and there are reports of other failures resulting from various owner actions.

I think it would make sense to have Avalon bitcoin insurance.  Insurance is a regulated business, and my sense is that the regulations protect existing companies at least as much as they protect the purchasers of insurance.  That is, the insurance companies would be quick to produce unwelcome paperwork for anyone who set up insurance without all the i's dotted and t's crossed.

Nonetheless, someone should pursue this.

You might put a link to this auction in your signature.  All of the signatures in all of your posts will be updated.
Of course, please feel free not to as well :-)