Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

If bitcoin is destined to become worlds money (or digital gold at first), then this bear is where you have to buy the heck of it (not an advice).
I don't know where the bottom would be, but here are some numbers (from the daily closing top of 67566, not going to use 68-69K as it was intraday):

Currently: -70% at $20.4K (to me, it is enough considering that we did not spike, but bad markets could cause it not to be the ultimate bottom)
-80% at $13.5K (numerically, a typical bitcoin bear, but from the blow-off tops beforehand)
-90% at $6.8K
-95% at $3.4K
-90 and -95% are, of course, ridiculous and can only happen if the whole market would be in an absolute despair (like SP500 at 2000).

However, in an unfortunate situation of a deep dive it would clear the slate for a 20 year super-cycle, just like AMZN started it's supercycle after 95% decline in 2000-2001 (from $6 to $3700-a 620X in 20 years). Both bitcoin and AMZN are networks with progressively increasing numbers of customers, dominating their fields, so the dynamic could be comparable.

Several people propose that SP500 would bottom at the peak of inflation. Bitcoin should bottom slightly earlier because it is more forward looking (could be there already or in vicinity).
I will try to catch that bottom and if not, then something close to it.
I like this game better than DCAing blindly. To each their own.

[death_wish]

goldkingcoiner:  Last chance to show, at least, that you are not a cheap talker.  I will not continue chasing after you as you evade—well, not in WO.  You are doing paid advertising for a casino in your signature and avatar, but you won’t bet your own money on Dabs’ personal hounour?  LOL.

I am sure that from death_wish's perspective, Dabs's charity for starving children is a reportable offense as well. And if I were to take his stupid bet, I am sure he would consider children's charity a form of "begging" as well and nag me for my money until I gave up.

Since you are a stupid n00b, I must explain to you how this works:

You and I each transfer money to escrow.  Reputable deep-green escrow, with a long history of handling large escrow deals on this forum (much larger than 1.1 BTC total!).  Someone with no conflicts of interest (including no personal conflicts with anyone involved here).  I have someone in mind—a neutral party, with whom I have no prior COI relationship (and also no personal conflict).  It would be someone acceptable to every reasonable forum member—not one of my pals.  If that escrow declines to handle this wager, then I would consider others.

The escrow takes the deal with a precisely stated contract—with terms digitally signed by you, and digitally signed by me.  Reputable escrows refuse to handle a deal, unless there is a precisely stated contract.

After evidence comes out (or if a deadline passes with no adequate evidence), then the escrow releases money according to the terms of the contract.  There is no “nagging you for money”.  I don’t trust you to pay up, anyway:  That is why I require escrow.  I myself am happy to pay upfront into escrow, so you will have no worries that I renege.  The escrow will have my money and your money.  100% above-board, fair on both sides.

All of this must occur in public, so that everyone can see that the wager is fairly settled.

Bonus:  If you win the bet, then you take away my money—and if you want, you can give it to to Dabs!  Or you can stipulate in the contract that your winning is payable to Dabs.  0.1 BTC to Dabs.  You are so “very sure”.  Are you willing to risk 1.0 BTC of your own money on Dabs’ honourable history?  If you are sure, then go ahead:  Crush me, and get 0.1 BTC assistance to Dabs at no cost to yourself!

You have insulted me egregiously.  You have said you are “more than sure”.  How much of a coward are you?


Approximate terms of wager—pre-alpha version rough draft, with informal language; I would tighten up and formalize it with proper contractual terms, before submitting it to escrow:

I say that there will soon^* appear in public a preponderance of evidence that in the past, long before the current market crash (say, >= 1 year ago), Dabs PMed a stranger with whom he had no prior relation, told some hard-luck story, and requested money to assist himself.  [Edited to add (archive of unedited original):  This was when Dabs was already high-rank, high-trust, and had a long-established escrow business plus long-running charity threads.  Not even something that anyone could even try to excuse as clueless-newbie misbehaviour.]

goldkingcoiner says that’s outrageous—never happened!

If the statement that I have hereby made is true as to fact, then I win the bet.

If the statement that I have hereby made is false as to fact, then goldkingcoiner wins the bet.

^* “Soon” means a deadline—say, prima facie evidence within 24 hours after the bet contract is fully formalized, and escrow confirms receipt of funds from both parties.  (If the evidence is disputed, then reasonable further time may be allowed on both sides to develop a preponderance of evidence.)  If no adequate evidence appears before the deadline, then goldkingcoiner wins the bet by default.

The bet shall be settled upon judgment of escrow, precisely according to the terms of the contract, in a public thread where everyone can see that it is fairly judged.  I absolutely require escrow for this.  All funds from both sides must be paid upfront into escrow.

I offer to bet 0.1 BTC against goldkingcoiner’s 1.0 BTC (10x odds).  I would wager more, but I will need to take upfront extreme losses and risks just to scratch together 0.1 BTC.  That’s a worthwhile cost, to win 1.0 BTC.  Sacrificing and risking to gather 0.1 BTC and then losing it would destroy what little is left of me; it would largely demolish my emergency reserves, to the degree of “I wish I could continue eating”.  I am obviously quite confident that I will win the bet.

Moreover, I think that the contract should also stipulate that the deep-green DT escrow shall give negative trust feedback to the loser of the bet:  To me for defaming Dabs, or to goldkingcoiner for defaming me and smearing me as a liar.  Both sides agree in advance to accept this permanently, without protest.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

This place sure gets weird when Bitcoin is going down.   And since most of the people here have been through a bear or 2 it's even weirder than weird.

[OROBTC]

This place sure gets weird when Bitcoin is going down.   And since most of the people here have been through a bear or 2 it's even weirder than weird.

The whole world is getting weirder, quickly, and in a very bad way.  Weirder than during the last bear market for sure.

My uninformed guess, of little value, is that it's all some kind a cultural thing(s).  The USA and Europe have slid into a kind of cultural degeneracy that is absolutely inexplicable to me (Drag Queens teaching First Graders in the NYC public schools how to apply DQ makeup?  Spend more .gov money to slow inflation?  "Green Energy"?  Corruption at all levels?  Loss of fundamental liberties practically every day?  Begging for increased foreign oil production when we have so much oil (and natural gas) here?  Etc.)

I struggle to decide how best to provide what I can for my grandchildren in such an uncertain and toxic environment.  But, no one can do much to help far into the future, especially with the instability we face.

I think I'll start fitting myself for a Tinfoil Hat.  I have crossed over to the other side.  Looks like some of the conspiracy theorists are right.  "It's not incompetence, it's deliberate"

[ivomm]

How BTCitcoin price is looking now:

[pakhitheboss]

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

I look at it as kind-of a trap. They can own more of it, sure. They just can't print more of it.

This is how they have survived for so long. The only good part is that they can only buy some of the Bitcoin and not all of it as they cannot print it.

[Richy_T]

I'm least excited about Wall Street buying into Bitcoin (also ETFs and other BS), it's money for the people, not money for money bags, but the technology is such that anyone can own bitcoins so obviously money bags will have the most of it.

I look at it as kind-of a trap. They can own more of it, sure. They just can't print more of it.

Doesn't stop them from trying with all sorts of derivatives and shit. But I do hope it all bites them in the ass, so "trap" sounds about right.

Derivatives are a trap in themselves. The issue is when they fuck up with them, they get bailed out.

[Biodom]

Well, that makes me very not whimpy, if I understand your criteria correctly LOL

I don't get his "whimpy" criteria with respect to myself (I guess because I don't DCA in principle).
I told him/her many times that I also mined before (had to stop a few mo ago) to no avail.
I am fine to be a strawman, though, sometimes it is even fun.

having said that @jjg is much better that the "other" one, especially lately.
Not sure what it is all about in the latter case, lol.
Maybe a social experiment like "poisoning the well"?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Wilhelm]

I was not begging for him, I was asking WO if we could help him out and suggesting any unwanted BTC can go towards that goal. Neither am I sure whether or not he is sincere. But why would an old member with so much trust, merit and history on his profile on Bitcointalk be lying about a despicable situation that he is trying to get out of? And all that for a few peanuts? That does not make sense to me. Report me if you want, you're still a jackass in my book either way.

Consistently with the note that I appended at the end of my prior post before I saw your reply:

I am not accusing Dabs of lying about whatever situation he claims to be in.  You are inserting that here as your strawman, goldkingcoiner.

Some people repeatedly get themselves into desperate situations.  (I know this, all too personally.)  Maybe he was telling the truth before—maybe not.  Maybe he is telling the truth now—maybe not.  It is irrelevant to anything that I said.

I said that Dabs has PM-begged before—and now, you are publicly begging on his behalf.  Right in front of someone who is clearly at least as desperate as Dabs, but who is taking the high road.  You’re the jackass.  Don’t you care about my desperate situation?

Incidentally, this is why begging is against forum rules.  Lots of people are genuinely in need.


So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?


Edited to add, for the record:  goldkingcoiner is also lying about his own post when put it in terms of “any unwanted BTC”.  His post started with that, then segued immediately into a general beg.  (Not that asking for “any unwanted BTC” would be ok, but that’s not even what this was.)

Post archived in multiple places (archive.ph, Wayback), because it is drastically changed from the original (LoyceV, backup, more backup):

[...]

You could donate it to Dabs if you don't want it. As he told me, he is in an uncomfortable financial situation and could use any and all help. Maybe WO should help him out?

I said any UNWANTED BTC (In this case accumulated BTC DUST) can go to him as a donation. And then I said he could use any and all help. Help can be in many forms. I am helping him find a job, for example.
And then I said maybe WO wants to help?

I do not see the part where I begged on his behalf. I wanted to do a good thing for a good man with a green trust reputation who has been doing good deeds on this forum for a long time.

Here is Dabs doing charity for kids: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=300631.0
is this considered "begging" in your book, too? Do you report the hungry children or dabs for "begging" for them? Go ahead, report the whole thread.

Were you unloved by your parents and now you want everyone to be as miserable as you?

Edit:

Death_wish, lets see who else can back up your claim of dabs "begging" per PMs in the past. If you are making reputation-damaging accusations without providing witness or evidence, that is called slander Libel. An action seen as illegal in many countries. And I will also not let that pass if your accusations are untrue.

So:
Can anyone other than death_wish confirm prove that dabs has been "begging" via pm in the past for personal gain?

Checked my PM and I've got a dabs begging PM. Death_wish is correct.
I've reported this to the admin because begging is not allowed IMO.
I sincerely feel for dabs but I and many have lost it all and had to rebuild.
I've lost coins in cryptsy and btce and have never begged.

Proof:

My stack is significant... but won't let me buy a ship like that .... yet

Hey there, hello fellow Wall Observer thread poster ...

How significant is it for you?


For me, I've lost everything since last year, but somehow managing to survive ... it's not easy.

I am hoping against hope that maybe perhaps you'd like to help those less fortunate than you.


Dabs

P.S. I don't know if you've read my little story here the past few months.

[ivomm]

Not a cat bounce? Not even a tiny V shape jump from the bottom? This is looking bad for the 20x longs. There are 3 options:

1. Going below 20K for a few hours, say to 18-19K, and then V shape recovery 20%+ and possibly a new short-term bull run to 40K.
2. Going below 20K for a longer period, say to 15K and then the V shape recovery 20%+ which starts a new short-term bull run to 30K.
3. Going steady up without a dip under 20K and longs realizing profit. Now, this is something I've never seen so far. May be there is a theoretical chance for that, but this would be new. Since someone said that in 2018 crash to 3100 there was no V-recovery, I beg to differ. I remember clearly that the price was falling to 3120 until it jumped and reached 4200 in a week, which is almost 40%. And 40% now will lead us to 28K, which I don't see happening. And earlier in 2018, when the price fell for the first time to 6K, which is 70% from the top, in 2 weeks it almost doubled to 11.5K.

Therefore, the probabilities I would give are:
1. 50%
2. 45%
3. 5%

Edit. Literally 1s after I postied this the price fell below 20K. Let's see how it develops from now.

[somac.]

Here we go

[somac.]

Figured they would take advantage of the low weekend liquidity.

If this doesn't get bought back quickly, we'll be under 20k for a while I think.

Big volume spike. Somebody wanted to just break this thing.

[death_wish]

[...trimmed by death_wish...]

Some people repeatedly get themselves into desperate situations.  (I know this, all too personally.)  Maybe he was telling the truth before—maybe not.  Maybe he is telling the truth now—maybe not.  It is irrelevant to anything that I said.

I said that Dabs has PM-begged before—and now, you are publicly begging on his behalf.  Right in front of someone who is clearly at least as desperate as Dabs, but who is taking the high road.  You’re the jackass.  Don’t you care about my desperate situation?

Incidentally, this is why begging is against forum rules.  Lots of people are genuinely in need.


So, are you a betting man, goldkingcoiner?

[...trimmed by death_wish...]

[...trimmed by death_wish...]

Were you unloved by your parents and now you want everyone to be as miserable as you?

Edit:

Death_wish, lets see who else can back up your claim of dabs "begging" per PMs in the past. If you are making reputation-damaging accusations without providing witness or evidence, that is called slander Libel. An action seen as illegal in many countries. And I will also not let that pass if your accusations are untrue.

So:
Can anyone other than death_wish confirm prove that dabs has been "begging" via pm in the past for personal gain?

Checked my PM and I've got a dabs begging PM. Death wish is correct.

Proof:

My stack is significant... but won't let me buy a ship like that .... yet

Hey there, hello fellow Wall Observer thread poster ...

How significant is it for you?


For me, I've lost everything since last year, but somehow managing to survive ... it's not easy.

I am hoping against hope that maybe perhaps you'd like to help those less fortunate than you.


Dabs

P.S. I don't know if you've read my little story here the past few months.

Thanks for stepping forward.  It speaks to your personal honesty.

I had no idea that he PM-begged to you.  (How many others?)

He begged to you in 2019.  The one that I have in mind is from a different year!  Now, he has goldkingcoiner soliciting WO for personal donations in 2022.  (How many others?)

This habituated beggar has an escrow service, and is widely trusted to collect donations for allegedly charitable purposes.

I will be doing the community a service by outing this all the way.

A few posts before that:

Well, that makes me very not whimpy, if I understand your criteria correctly LOL

I don't get his "whimpy" criteria with respect to myself (I guess because I don't DCA in principle).
I told him/her many times that I also mined before (had to stop a few mo ago) to no avail.
I am fine to be a strawman, though, sometimes it is even fun.

having said that @jjg is much better that the "other" one, especially lately.
Not sure what it is all about in the latter case, lol.
Maybe a social experiment like "poisoning the well"?

That is an ill-concealed mention of me.

Do you want to take the bet that I offered to goldkingcoiner?  (Archived, newer version with edit to strengthen contested statement; archive of unedited original.)

Regardless, I will expect from you a retraction and apology.  You are poisoning the well as to my reputation, gossiping to insinuate vague, unspecified badness about me as pure FUD.  And you are even worse a coward than goldkingcoiner:  You don’t dare to contradict me directly, or to call me out by name.

New offer:  Everyone who believes that I am lying can pool together on the opposite side of the bet.  Y’all together bet 1.0 BTC total, againt my 0.1 BTC payable to Dabs if I lose.  Escrowed, settled publicly, 100% above-board.  Deal?

When you lose the bet, consider it my payment for the public service of causing this to be exposed.  And it will make this all the more spectacular, if I ever decide to offer a concise public proof that suchmoon is a filthy, lying character-assassin.

I say that there will soon^* appear in public a preponderance of evidence that in the past, long before the current market crash (say, >= 1 year ago), Dabs PMed a stranger with whom he had no prior relation, told some hard-luck story, and requested money to assist himself.  [Edited to add (archive of unedited original):  This was when Dabs was already high-rank, high-trust, and had a long-established escrow business plus long-running charity threads.  Not even something that anyone could even try to excuse as clueless-newbie misbehaviour.]

goldkingcoiner says that’s outrageous—never happened!

If the statement that I have hereby made is true as to fact, then I win the bet.

Modification of terms:  I say that there is also at least one other PM, in addition to the one to Wilhelm (which I did not know about).

Accruing evidence of habitual PM-begging.

[serveria.com]

So, it happened for the first time in BTC history... weekend bearish attack on the last cycle's ATH succeeded? 

[somac.]

So, it happened for the first time in BTC history... weekend bearish attack on the last cycle's ATH succeeded?  

Yep, looked like a massive market dump from one person though, was pretty instant. Whale trying to manipulate maybe.

Huge volume on the 15min at stamp and bid side loaded.

[serveria.com]

Seems to be a massive dump and a fierce battle in $19xxx ... how low can we go?  

[YourMother]

"Hedge against inflation"

This absolute dogshit coin BTC is trading at $19k which adjusted to inflation is like $17k or less.... That's -$2k under the ATH of 2017. That's half a fucking decade ago LOL

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation