Martin Armstrong Discussion

[iamnotback]

Whales will do what makes the most economics sense, i.e. that which is most profitable. Thus they will do what I wrote.

Math and economics game theory isn't something you can argue with. It is either stated correctly, or you must point out the error. There was no valid error pointed out by anyone about my logic.

I wrote "I think" as a way of saying I am open to reading anyone valid errors in my logic. So far, I have seen no such valid errors pointed out.

The future has not yet come to prove (or disprove) anyone's logic.

To say one's logic of the future is correct as of today, is to suggest self-fulfilling prophecy.

Spiritually, that is akin to handing one's creative power to a 3rd-party that does not have one's interest at heart.

The only way I can see that the fees won't rise egregiously on BTC on chain (with $trillionaire/$billionaire whales free riding on the rest of us) is if something can compete with Bitcoin such that the whales feel they are losing control of the blockchain (and eventually global) economy, and/or if fungible money can be removed as important from civilization.

Neither of those two caveats are likely to come true in the near-term. TPTB already have their master plan underway for collapsing the global economy in sovereign debt collapse with $quadrillions of derivatives, war, and pestilence. This will accelerate this May 2017 and even more egregiously accelerate in 2018.

Such caveats might start to become competitive with the plans of the global elite after another decade or so. In the meantime, such caveats will be nascent fledging saplings that are growing very fast, but not yet large enough to compete with TPTB.

[1715293894]

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[1715293894]

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[dwieyani]

A hoax for the Europeans that they are not all under the dictatorship, just like the Scotsman has ever done.

[r0ach]

Armstrong is a shill for TPTB.  The gold to national debt chart, which has a 91% correlation, shows the price of gold should be around $1800-$2000 right now:



While the historical DOW to gold ratios show that gold should be $4000-$7000 an ounce with the DOW this high:



In reality, instead of gold going to $4k-$7k, it's more likely the DOW should collapse in half and gold goes to $2000-$3500.  Silver would likely go to $66-$116 in that scenario with around a 30:1 ratio.  This is just speaking in a normal market without a currency collapse or something happening.  If the bond market or currency blows up, metals would obviously be much higher.  Metals are in a giant inverse bubble right now, and the reason is they attempted to manipulate them down even lower than normal to try and facilitate NIRP/ZIRP.

And whoever thinks metals aren't manipulated (like lying Armstrong), here's a chart showing the price of silver more than halving as demand skyrockets at the same time.  Most (downward) manipulated, inverse bubble market on earth:

[sidhujag]

Market is efficient.. your not the only one who knows the ratios.. theres a reason the correlation is broken its because gold is dead and goimg back to commodity use levels. Did you read szabos post I linked to you earlier? That explains why commodities are not a safe bet right now.

[r0ach]

Market is efficient.. your not the only one who knows the ratios.. theres a reason the correlation is broken its because gold is dead and goimg back to commodity use levels. Did you read szabos post I linked to you earlier? That explains why commodities are not a safe bet right now.

Bullshit.  Nobody is going to stand around saying "Who needs a reduction in counterparty risk!  I'll just be at the mercy of whatever the govt does!".  Gold and silver have nowhere to go but up in terms of utility for humans.  We are not going into some Star Trek utopia where nobody uses money like you and Anonymint like to make believe.  And cryptocurrency has no Nash equilibrium and doesn't solve any counter party risk problems.

Civilization also bends down towards it's average or lowest common denominator, and the dumbest people on earth like inner city rappers are reproducing the fastest.  You do not go into a Star Trek "knowledge age" with demographics like that.

Also, listen to Armstrong's new stupid idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcuYmUZrOqo

He thinks the govts of the world should run on a standard of a basket of pegged currencies.  He then says the SDR is bad, but his idea basically is the SDR LOL.  We also already have a basket of pegged currencies with a bunch of trash fiats pegged to the dollar.  This guy is high on whiskey just talking bullshit.

But the most important point and why Armstrong is a lying shill, is he wants to leave control of the currency with malevolent, jewish central bankers issuing a debt based currency to enslave you by usury.  He's a shill for the jew banks.

[sidhujag]

Market is efficient.. your not the only one who knows the ratios.. theres a reason the correlation is broken its because gold is dead and goimg back to commodity use levels. Did you read szabos post I linked to you earlier? That explains why commodities are not a safe bet right now.

Bullshit.  Nobody is going to stand around saying "Who needs a reduction in counterparty risk!  I'll just be at the mercy of whatever the govt does!".  Gold and silver have nowhere to go but up in terms of utility for humans.  We are not going into some Star Trek utopia where nobody uses money like you and Anonymint like to make believe.  And cryptocurrency has no Nash equilibrium and doesn't solve any counter party risk problems.

Civilization also bends down towards it's average or lowest common denominator, and the dumbest people on earth like inner city rappers are reproducing the fastest.  You do not go into a Star Trek "knowledge age" with demographics like that.

Also, listen to Armstrong's new stupid idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcuYmUZrOqo

He thinks the govts of the world should run on a standard of a basket of pegged currencies.  He then says the SDR is bad, but his idea basically is the SDR LOL.  We also already have a basket of pegged currencies with a bunch of trash fiats pegged to the dollar.  This guy is high on whiskey just talking bullshit.

But the most important point and why Armstrong is a lying shill, is he wants to leave control of the currency with malevolent, jewish central bankers issuing a debt based currency to enslave you by usury.  He's a shill for the jew banks.

But you keep missing the important pieces.. btc has no less counterparty risk than gold yet it also provides much more benefits. Lets agree to disagree here dont bother replyinf on that part I already understand your argument. More importantly commodities all tend towards industrial cost and usage which means gold has much more downside coming while bitcoin keeps trumping you after you sold.. it wont get back to your reload zone any time soon not atleast $10k is hit first.

I agree armstrong sucks but i also understand that bitcoin is much safer to hold than gold here.

[iamnotback]

Is BitFUnix and the Tether dollar USDT about to crash the Bitcoin market?

Re: BTC doing good after this big dump

The floor is really around $1050-1100 right now and it's unlikely to break that due to the strong resistance in the market.

We went from $1200 to $1165, it's staying up nicely, so we must hope that we don't go below $1100 and I think we are reasonably ok and good to go for the next $1300 test.

Just like what others said, I don't go for it that it was a big dump. It's only a very small fluctuation compare to what happened from the past like Mt.Gox and with the BTU drama.The price right now is at $1,199 on preev and it will keep on moving and stable at that rate. We'll see that $1,300 very soon.  

as far as I know a correction shouldn't be sharp. it is usually a slower drop. the sharp dips usually show some kind of manipulation and followed by panic sell. mostly starting with the expectation of a drop (in this case the SegWit drama by F2Pool) and then weak hands jump.

Expect some event to serve as a distraction from the Scalepocalyspe reality that we are enslaved by the shadow elite.

This market is flat out fraud.  $30 $41 spread between Finex and Bitstamp.  Since we all know Bitfinex is an insolvent exchange that trades against it's own customers and also steals their money, I'm guessing that spread is also propped up by non-existent money just like Gox.  Why are people willing to put up a $2 million buy wall on Bitfinex but no other exchange to try and prop up price?  Because Bitfinex probably isn't even using real money, just imaginary exchange digits.  

I've been saying BitFinex is the new Gox forever and here it is.  There is no valid price of bitcoin as long as Bitfinex is the market maker.

The current chart looks like shit and is forming a down channel and you got fraudsters on Bitfinex trying to manipulate it up with imaginary money that probably doesn't exist:

BitFUnix has probably been paying off old thefts with new Ponzi money incoming per recent news.

Making excuses about not being able to make wire transfers.

Also note that Tether was involved in that lawsuit, so perhaps USDT token is also not safe to hold:

Court records show that yesterday, lawyers for the plaintiffs – iFinex (the owner and operator of the exchange), its two British Virgin Islands-based subsidiaries and digital asset transfer firm Tether – filed a notice of voluntary dismissal in the US District Court for the Northern District of California.

The reason for the 2 - 3% discrepancy between BitFUnix/Poloniex and Bitstamp is because the former at quoting in USDT, which is the Tether dollar. The market believes the Tether dollar is worth 2 - 3% less than the real US dollar.

You can rest assured that Tether dollars are a private fractional reserve system. The list of those who can redeem USDT for real US dollars is controlled by Tether, so they can prevent a run on the bank. If the market ever senses that the USDT is not backed by anything or is in danger of being regulated non-compliant for exchanges, then all those holding USDT would probably see the value of their USDT go "proof, and it's gone". I am suspecting that the way BitFUnix has remained afloat is by scheming with those who created Tether so they get a kickback for using USDT instead of actual dollars on their exchange. Ditto perhaps Poloniex. The collapse of USDT could cause another flash crash to Bitcoin.

[iamnotback]

Re: Well, well, well, now we know what Jihan Wu’s been up to.

I finally figured out the most likely reason Jihan is blocking SegWit both on Bitcoin and Litecoin.

Bitmain as the manufacturer of 70% of the mining ASICs, see the issuance of tokens as their exclusive domain. In other words, they very powerful shadow elite who are backing Bitmain want all the tokens issued for themselves. Yes I suspect MP is an owner/investor of Bitmain.

So therefor they need to control that the price doesn't rise faster than the supply of hashrate so that marginal miners (those not in their cabal of mining farms with subsidized electricity) are never significantly profitable. In this way, all the economic value from mining ends up in Bitmain's pocket with which they can purchase the tokens for their shadow elite investors/owners.

But SegWit would enable Core to make upgrades in the future to Bitcoin's ecosystem without needing hashrate activation. Thus Core could in the future push the price up and down, removing that control from Bitman.

This is probably why miners are pushing extension blocks instead as a scaling solution.

Miners will support a change to Litecoin's protocol which allows LN to be added for Litecoin, but Jihan will probably block the features of SegWit which allow softforking version changes. Also I don't think LN (off chain scaling) will ever be allowed for Bitcoin because I explained else where that it causes instability of the block chain and no need to risk for the $billionaire's settlement blockchain which is what Bitcoin is to become.

On Litecoin, Jihan enabled the hype to push the price up so he could presell the April 15 and May 15 batches of L3+ miners at what seemed like a bargain at current LTC price and hashrate, but he probably knows he is going to block SegWit activation and crash the price as well raising the hashrate with those new L3+ miners shipping.

[r0ach]

btc has no less counterparty risk than gold

You need to be flat out lying to claim bitcoin has equal or less counterparty risk than gold.  It requires ONLY TWO parties in order to complete a transaction if there is no counterparty risk involved.  Since you need things like active miners, active node archivers, and numerous other parties, bitcoin has QUANTIFIABLY HIGHER counterparty risk than gold and silver.  There's ALWAYS more than two people involved in the equation, and the Nash equilibrium doesn't even exist in the first place, nullifying it's entire purpose.

[sidhujag]

btc has no less counterparty risk than gold

You need to be flat out lying to claim bitcoin has equal or less counterparty risk than gold.  It requires ONLY TWO parties in order to complete a transaction if there is no counterparty risk involved.  Since you need things like active miners, active node archivers, and numerous other parties, bitcoin has QUANTIFIABLY HIGHER counterparty risk than gold and silver.  There's ALWAYS more than two people involved in the equation, and the Nash equilibrium doesn't even exist in the first place, nullifying it's entire purpose.

Better than government confiscating your gold at will or taking down serial numbers and throwing anyone in jail that owns that gold bar.. nullifying its entire purpose. Atleast with miners they have incentive to do good and there is no jurisdiction of miners where governments may implement policy without assessing risk to the whole but only for selfish reasons in their own jurisdictions.

Tainted coins can be fixed with ct and valueshuffle while gold cant do anythinf theres no fungibility (banks wont take gold bars without serial numbers and is too heavy anyway. Gold and silver are going backwards as an ideal money where bitcoin is asymptotically closer to ideal according to nash. Even fiat is more ideal than gold.

[OROBTC]

...

Lot of different issues to comment on here now, I will limit myself to two, and comment on any others later.

I think that r0ach is right re gold.  Both that the price is way out of historical norms, and some kind of snap back to a more normal range is to be expected.  And there are a lot of ideas and theories as to how high gold will go (I do not know silver well, in fact last week I traded 200 oz of Ag and $600 for 3 oz of Au).  I suspect that gold will go up A LOT given time.

Also, re counterparty risk, if you look at the risk of a counterparty NOT fulfilling a deal/contract, it is clear that BTC being spent depends on performance by counterparties...  Assuming you own gold, you have already been paid!

*  *  *

iamnotback has just made another very clear call (sell BTC).  I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment), but almost surely I will HODL at least some BTC with the hope that the Developers and the Miners will finally grow a set and resolve the BTC scaling issues.

She it!  Should imanotback get this one right like his recent call on LTC, I'll be following his advice much more often.  

[sidhujag]

...

Lot of different issues to comment on here now, I will limit myself to two, and comment on any others later.

I think that r0ach is right re gold.  Both that the price is way out of historical norms, and some kind of snap back to a more normal range is to be expected.  And there are a lot of ideas and theories as to how high gold will go (I do not know silver well, in fact last week I traded 200 oz of Ag and $600 for 3 oz of Au).  I suspect that gold will go up A LOT given time.

Also, re counterparty risk, if you look at the risk of a counterparty NOT fulfilling a deal/contract, it is clear that BTC being spent depends on performance by counterparties...  Assuming you own gold, you have already been paid!

*  *  *

iamnotback has just made another very clear call (sell BTC).  I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment), but almost surely I will HODL at least some BTC with the hope that the Developers and the Miners will finally grow a set and resolve the BTC scaling issues.

She it!  Should imanotback get this one right like his recent call on LTC, I'll be following his advice much more often.  

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

[OROBTC]

...

Lot of different issues to comment on here now, I will limit myself to two, and comment on any others later.

I think that r0ach is right re gold.  Both that the price is way out of historical norms, and some kind of snap back to a more normal range is to be expected.  And there are a lot of ideas and theories as to how high gold will go (I do not know silver well, in fact last week I traded 200 oz of Ag and $600 for 3 oz of Au).  I suspect that gold will go up A LOT given time.

Also, re counterparty risk, if you look at the risk of a counterparty NOT fulfilling a deal/contract, it is clear that BTC being spent depends on performance by counterparties...  Assuming you own gold, you have already been paid!

*  *  *

iamnotback has just made another very clear call (sell BTC).  I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment), but almost surely I will HODL at least some BTC with the hope that the Developers and the Miners will finally grow a set and resolve the BTC scaling issues.

She it!  Should imanotback get this one right like his recent call on LTC, I'll be following his advice much more often.  

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

Actually I did read your post.  Sure, the government could come along and ban holding gold, ban Au exports, or tax any transactions very highly.  In my opinion, that is unlikely.  Gold will likely be considered the BEST capital should the US$ and other currencies have a bad ending.  Smart governments (granted, many are NOT smart) will likely make it EASY for gold owners to come out "the other side" and invest after a severe financial crisis.

COUNTERPARTY, as it is usually understood, refers to your counterparty (perhaps a seller of something in exchange for your gold) failing to fulfill his end of a deal.

[sidhujag]

...

Lot of different issues to comment on here now, I will limit myself to two, and comment on any others later.

I think that r0ach is right re gold.  Both that the price is way out of historical norms, and some kind of snap back to a more normal range is to be expected.  And there are a lot of ideas and theories as to how high gold will go (I do not know silver well, in fact last week I traded 200 oz of Ag and $600 for 3 oz of Au).  I suspect that gold will go up A LOT given time.

Also, re counterparty risk, if you look at the risk of a counterparty NOT fulfilling a deal/contract, it is clear that BTC being spent depends on performance by counterparties...  Assuming you own gold, you have already been paid!

*  *  *

iamnotback has just made another very clear call (sell BTC).  I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment), but almost surely I will HODL at least some BTC with the hope that the Developers and the Miners will finally grow a set and resolve the BTC scaling issues.

She it!  Should imanotback get this one right like his recent call on LTC, I'll be following his advice much more often.  

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

Actually I did read your post.  Sure, the government could come along and ban holding gold, ban Au exports, or tax any transactions very highly.  In my opinion, that is unlikely.  Gold will likely be considered the BEST capital should the US$ and other currencies have a bad ending.  Smart governments (granted, many are NOT smart) will likely make it EASY for gold owners to come out "the other side" and invest after a severe financial crisis.

COUNTERPARTY, as it is usually understood, refers to your counterparty (perhaps a seller of something in exchange for your gold) failing to fulfill his end of a deal.

well I'd say the use of(or lack thereof), of that gold is just as important than the trade of it and ofcourse with bitcoin you can spend without anyone's permission the problem roach was saying was that miners have the final say on which txs go in the chain and could be corrupted... but that is a smaller chance than governments placing obtuse restrictions on their citizens like China did by confiscating gold that tried to leave country, or like US did decades ago. The issues with bitcoin are there, but there are bigger issues with gold should the SHTF moment come and gold is used for barter (backing of fundamental currency controls) for which we already know how that script played out and also is the only reason gold has speculative value over what it is intrinsically worth.

Gold is there for speculative value simply because there was no other option, you had gold and then fiat ( a more ideal money) and when people lost hope in fiat they only had gold to fall back on... now that there is another option which is more ideal, it will take over regardless but we just don't know how much time it will take, will it be in our lifetime? In the game of investing and trading risk:reward is based on statistics and essentially this gives a higher risk:reward ratio in gold than bitcoin because the market will slowly but surely shift to the ideal option when it becomes aware or the top down hierarchy starts to collapse and "give in".

The proof of this can be seen as you now notice bitcoin being traded as a safe haven, it has safe haven status as well as ideal money status. Any problems in bitcoin are mitigated because any competitor to cryptocurrency has bigger issues. Maybe one day we will have a better form of ideal money but it has to shift away from bitcoin such that it will be another radical shift in the way we think about money. Those that do not understand that statement will fail to appropriately place their investment to maximize their potential during their lifetime. Those that do will benefit the most and most likely be the new breed of elite.

[r0ach]

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

No, the gold can't be blacklisted because it's actually fungible, unlike bitcoin.  You see, if you live in America or most 1st world countries, the govt themselves already issues coinage without serial numbers on it.  There is no plausible scenario where they outlaw small coinage but allow only large serialed bars.  That idea makes no sense whatsoever.  Canadian coins, however, are not actually fungible because they have their little micro-engraving feature (but you could always just melt them down anyway and it's fungible again).

I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment)

http://www.jmbullion.com and http://silvergoldbull.com both accept bitcoin now and don't seem to have the shipping delays Provident does.

[sloanf]

Also, listen to Armstrong's new stupid idea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcuYmUZrOqo

He thinks the govts of the world should run on a standard of a basket of pegged currencies.  He then says the SDR is bad, but his idea basically is the SDR LOL.  We also already have a basket of pegged currencies with a bunch of trash fiats pegged to the dollar.  This guy is high on whiskey just talking bullshit.

But the most important point and why Armstrong is a lying shill, is he wants to leave control of the currency with malevolent, jewish central bankers issuing a debt based currency to enslave you by usury.  He's a shill for the jew banks.

This charlatan has been talking bs for decades. Because that's what he does for a living. He takes your money in exchange for his bs. It is that simple. Now, look at this moronic interviewer who introduces MA like a messiah. In all other interviews MA sold him exactly the same crap with all the same wrong forecasts and yet this clown keeps licking his ass and begging him for more interviews. But I digress.

Watch at 5:40 where this uneducated scamster tells you right in your face how he 1) consulted Swiss gov 2) told them the peg would collapse. What a bunch of utter bs that even unbelievable idiots like @iamnotback wouldn't buy anymore. First, this charlatan never consulted any government in his entire con life. And how could any government ask an uneducated criminal (who lost most of investors' money and got jailed for stealing the rest of what remained after his "brilliant" management) for financial\economic advice? You gotta be kidding! And then you have his "brilliant" call on the swiss franc https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-swiss-for-year-end-2014/ where he predicted that chf would fall against the usd. Just two weeks later the franc soared 30%. And after 2.5 years it's still there where it was in the end of 2014.

So no, he is not a shill for jews or anybody. He is just a broke and delusional con who tries to position himself as a guru, a messiah etc in order to get your money. He is so desperate for your money (because he's broke) that it doesn't really matter which bs to sell as long as gullible idiots like @iamnotback keep coming back with their money for more and more.

[sidhujag]

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

No, the gold can't be blacklisted because it's actually fungible, unlike bitcoin.  You see, if you live in America or most 1st world countries, the govt themselves already issues coinage without serial numbers on it.  There is no plausible scenario where they outlaw small coinage but allow only large serialed bars.  That idea makes no sense whatsoever.  Canadian coins, however, are not actually fungible because they have their little micro-engraving feature (but you could always just melt them down anyway and it's fungible again).

I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment)

http://www.jmbullion.com and http://silvergoldbull.com both accept bitcoin now and don't seem to have the shipping delays Provident does.

Gold isnt fungible at all. Again you missed my point. Say government of nebula decides because roach on mars says gold std needs to come back so they need.to confiscate 10 percent of everyones gold because they need it in theie vaults or they go bankrupt.. ok how would they make that work? First ban fine or jail merchants taking gold without serials or any serials that are blacklisted simar to what modi just did with india. Sorry my problem is that I assume people get what im saying im a programmer so inherently lazy in explaining concepts through this forum I hope.you get it now.

So with that in mind revisit my reply to you to know what im saying.about jurisdictions.

[OROBTC]

...

sidhujag

We are now arguing over the semantics of counterparty and government.

A solution re which to hold (gold or Bitcoin) is easy.  As I have long argued, and have the battle scars to prove it, HODLing both Bitcoin and gold neatly addresses some of your concerns.  Since no one can predict the future, having some holdings of each reduces risk of Black Swan events taking your wealth.

Gold IS wealth.  Wealth is something you own, that costs currency to get.  With gold you are already paid.  Bitcoin needs a transaction...

I am very curious to see if iamnotback's latest speculative calls (SELL cryptos, a tad over-simplifying) is going to come true.

[frowsiter]

I did not really understood the whole picture. But I got the point that bitcoin might go over the heads of bank. Lol.

[OROBTC]

You didnt read my post.. even if you own that gold it can essily be blacklisted

No, the gold can't be blacklisted because it's actually fungible, unlike bitcoin.  You see, if you live in America or most 1st world countries, the govt themselves already issues coinage without serial numbers on it.  There is no plausible scenario where they outlaw small coinage but allow only large serialed bars.  That idea makes no sense whatsoever.  Canadian coins, however, are not actually fungible because they have their little micro-engraving feature (but you could always just melt them down anyway and it's fungible again).

I may trade some for gold (Provident Metals accepts BTC as payment)

http://www.jmbullion.com and http://silvergoldbull.com both accept bitcoin now and don't seem to have the shipping delays Provident does.

Hmm.........

Provident's parent company is called Elemetal.  Two of their subsidiaries have lately gotten into trouble.  One for being involved with the Peruvian gold smuggling ring.  The other for holding gold in unallocated accounts (while charging for storage), and just the other day ELEMETAL sent out a letter apologizing to their clients for stealing their money.

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it."

Thanks for reminding me that JM Bullion takes BTC too.  I have not bought from them, but they are serious in the business, good reputation.

EDIT: adding links:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article144472714.html    <== (NTR Metals buying smuggled gold)

http://thedailycoin.org/2017/04/12/elemetal-scandal-fallout-letter-video/

(Chris Duane, second link, has been called whacko, but it was the first decent link I got via Google discussing the Elemetal letter, the news is real)