Martin Armstrong Discussion

[OROBTC]

...

I am re-reading N N Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness.  Taleb is probably an even more influential thinker than Martin Armstrong.  The book is the one he wrote before writing his most famous book: The Black Swan.  He is the guy who made the "Black Swan" idea famous.

His main theme in the book I am reading again is that random events are MUCH more important than is generally credited, even by "experts".

Drop by my thread about Taleb's book and feel free to discuss his ideas as many of you have done re Martin Armstrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4952382.new#new


/end threadjack

[1714285679]

1714285679

[Viendong6158]

Much appreciated guys. now his blog updates make more sense (thought broad top 2015.75 was the prediction)

[squog]

From an average guy's point of view, i really though that i would be overwhelmed by the information in this article. But it turns out that after a while i kind of begin to understand what is going on. Although not completely, but the main concept i think i grasped.

[Thekees]

Has anyone tried to work out whats going to happen the next few months with gold, the pound and EURUSD?
Armstrong posted the arrays of all three and I am hoping we can start a discussion about what everyones thoughts are on where price will go.

Here is my a summary and what I think will happen.

Gold elected a monthly bearish and august was a turning point with the next in November. For September there is a directional change, high volatility and a Panic cycle! so it looks like gold is in for a ride!
Also, according to the weekly turning points Socrates sometimes posts, 03-09 and 17-09 are important turning points, (I´m not sure if they are correct since they are provided sporadically) 
In any case im thinking maybe next week will be the low intra day or closing and then a big move up.

Pound is similar, elected monthly bearish and august was a turning point with October likely the next one. September is also has a directional change, high volatility and again a panic cycle! Armtsrong wrote "When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against the dollar into October". Price closed below this level so this implies there wont be a rally? will price just consolidate for now as the both the pound and the USD lose value?

And lastly the EURUSD, august was also a turning point until ideally october, september also has a small panic cycle. Armsrong also wrote that a close above the bearish monthly reversal of 1.1550 would imply a rally because there was a monthly bullish at 1.1429 which we have now elected at 1.40-1.45% away so we may have a 1% rule in play.
According to the weekly turning points 20-08 was one and the next is 03-09.
The 20-08 turning point was spot on as highest close, this week made a intraday high and closed making nice bearish pin bar.
So putting all this together I am expecting the EURUSD will move lower next week and atleast touching the elected bullish reversal at 1.1429 making a intraday or weekly low close and then turn back up the week of 10-09.

I could of course be completely wrong .

any thoughts?

[Thekees]

Armstrong says the Monthly Bearish is at 1194 and 1271 is the Bullish. He says gold can bounce from the August low. September does not have a direction change, just volatility and panic cycle. Because August was a turning point, that means it was the low- as you said, either closing or intra. So maybe gold can be bought in September and then sold in November.     
       
I do not know much about the pound, but October is a turning point.   

Although the Euro can bounce into October as Armstrong says, he also said that there are no immediate buy signals unless it closes above 12100 that day.     
     
It's a shame so few people discuss his work. Forecasting is supposed to be the Holy Grail of finance and therefore, even if there is a small chance of it working, investigation should be pursued. Maybe the ones who believe it keep it under wraps.

Your right about the gold not having a Directional change, I was a bit to quick.
 

Anyway, why I think the EURUSD will go up is because of something Armstrong has said about the use of reversals in combination with arrays. He says you can just buy/sell the reversals but you can also trade against them when the timing is right. So say there is a turning point in the array and price just cant manage to close above the bullish reversal, this could be a good sell signal, so your selling off the bullish reversal.

Have you seen this video of Martin at a WEC https://vimeo.com/198896912? The German guy in the second half goes into some detail about how to use the arrays and reversal. He says things like, the time was up and price could not elect the bullish reversal and so it turned down.
I am going to rewatch it since its been a while, il probably get more out of it this time around.

I think your right about the believers keeping under wraps. Armstrong has even said that his clients don´t want him on Mainstream media because they want people to trade against, they want to keep him secret. Maybe there is some private forum for people to discuss his stuff and you can get invited when you go to the WEC.
Going to a WEC is definitely on my to do list btw.

[Gumbi]

Has anyone tried to work out whats going to happen the next few months with gold, the pound and EURUSD?
Armstrong posted the arrays of all three and I am hoping we can start a discussion about what everyones thoughts are on where price will go.

Here is my a summary and what I think will happen.

Gold elected a monthly bearish and august was a turning point with the next in November. For September there is a directional change, high volatility and a Panic cycle! so it looks like gold is in for a ride!
Also, according to the weekly turning points Socrates sometimes posts, 03-09 and 17-09 are important turning points, (I´m not sure if they are correct since they are provided sporadically) 
In any case im thinking maybe next week will be the low intra day or closing and then a big move up.

Pound is similar, elected monthly bearish and august was a turning point with October likely the next one. September is also has a directional change, high volatility and again a panic cycle! Armtsrong wrote "When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against the dollar into October". Price closed below this level so this implies there wont be a rally? will price just consolidate for now as the both the pound and the USD lose value?

And lastly the EURUSD, august was also a turning point until ideally october, september also has a small panic cycle. Armsrong also wrote that a close above the bearish monthly reversal of 1.1550 would imply a rally because there was a monthly bullish at 1.1429 which we have now elected at 1.40-1.45% away so we may have a 1% rule in play.
According to the weekly turning points 20-08 was one and the next is 03-09.
The 20-08 turning point was spot on as highest close, this week made a intraday high and closed making nice bearish pin bar.
So putting all this together I am expecting the EURUSD will move lower next week and atleast touching the elected bullish reversal at 1.1429 making a intraday or weekly low close and then turn back up the week of 10-09.

I could of course be completely wrong .

any thoughts?

 I agree with everything except for the Gold turning point the one you are referring to was posted on the 20th August. This is the latest Gold Array(27th Aug) posted which points to 9/10 and not 9/3 as a turning point which lines up with the gold benchmark due the week of 9/10.

"Centering on time using the Array, prospective Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 8/27, 9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 9/24, 10/8, 10/15, 10/22 and 10/29. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. Despite everything, the primary targets are, 8/27, 9/10, 9/24, 10/15 and 10/29. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Sep. 10, 2018 and Mon. Sep. 24, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of September 10th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 8/27 until 9/24 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 5-week period. "

"Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of June 11th at 131300 for 9 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of August 13th. "

[miscreanity]

A brief discussion of Armstrong's latest crypto-related blog post:

While he is certainly correct about the presence of thousands of coins being untenable from a human perspective, there is nothing preventing localized or private coin usage for small-scale purposes. This is especially relevant for machine-machine communication and transactions; while they would not carry much value outside of their local system, it could still be worthwhile in certain situations such as sensor networks.

I think comparing Bitcoin to silver is borderline disingenuous. The former is a technology with properties of several asset classes while silver is a physical commodity material with monetary properties, not in itself a technology. This makes me think that Bitcoin would be more inline with NASDAQ or a tech stock, and comparing those does show similarities with an accelerated time-frame in the case of Bitcoin.

The Socrates computer system has certainly been able to call the patterns, but the reasons for those patterns unfolding are not necessarily what Armstrong touts in his opinion. As he has stated so many times, human opinion cannot consistently describe markets - only an unbiased and objective computer has the potential for that. Perhaps Armstrong's perspective has been colored a bit too much by the existing paradigm of this world and led to his own bias.

There's a good take from Daniel Jeffries on people accurately forecasting the future, but in exactly the inverse to what actually happens. A quote from that post:

Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. Baloney.

His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems. Wrong!

Jeffries also correctly points out that the most significant advance of Bitcoin is it's functional implementation of triple-entry accounting, only the third advance in accounting for all of human history.

Now read the following with that in mind:

BitCoin is a trading vechicle. Trade it with that in mind ONLY. It will never replace the dollar, become a reserve currency, and it will not soar to $100,000. Those who believe such nonsense will be easily separated from their money. Trade it that way.

Okay, we'll see...

Bitcoin is not just a trading vehicle even if it is behaving as such right now. It is also a highly tamper-resistant sequential-ordering chain, a cryptographic registry, a programmable contract platform - and the list goes on.

That said, it certainly is not going to be a short-term process for Bitcoin to reach stratospheric levels or be established as a reserve currency; it may happen a lot sooner than many expect but it will still take years. Regardless of where it may go, the advice to never marry the trade is absolutely appropriate.

[Klongkhunosi]

Like Boston/NYC, too, I suppose London relies on glamour and nightlife to reel in the under-30s, who haven't really figured out the workings of the world yet. So there are some misguided young career people around; some of them will change their tune as they mature, but many will continue to work in the financial centre for years. After all, once you've settled into a career, we're talking about big salaries and a hefty mortgage to service. It's difficult breaking out of that, because it means a total lifestyle change.

[Inspiretk]

Woah check this out:
ROTHSCHILD OWNED & CONTROLLED BANKS:
Afghanistan: Bank of Afghanistan
Albania: Bank of Albania
Algeria: Bank of Algeria
Argentina: Central Bank of Argentina
Armenia: Central Bank of Armenia
Aruba: Central Bank of Aruba
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia
Austria: Austrian National Bank
Azerbaijan: Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic
Bahamas: Central Bank of The Bahamas
Bahrain: Central Bank of Bahrain
Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bank
Barbados: Central Bank of Barbados
Belarus: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus
Belgium: National Bank of Belgium
Belize: Central Bank of Belize
Benin: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Bermuda: Bermuda Monetary Authority
Bhutan: Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan
Bolivia: Central Bank of Bolivia
Bosnia: Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana: Bank of Botswana
Brazil: Central Bank of Brazil
Bulgaria: Bulgarian National Bank
Burkina Faso: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Burundi: Bank of the Republic of Burundi
Cambodia: National Bank of Cambodia
Came Roon: Bank of Central African States
Canada: Bank of Canada – Banque du Canada
Cayman Islands: Cayman Islands Monetary Authority
Central African Republic: Bank of Central African States
Chad: Bank of Central African States
Chile: Central Bank of Chile
China: The People’s Bank of China
Colombia: Bank of the Republic
Comoros: Central Bank of Comoros
Congo: Bank of Central African States
Costa Rica: Central Bank of Costa Rica
Côte d’Ivoire: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Croatia: Croatian National Bank
Cuba: Central Bank of Cuba
Cyprus: Central Bank of Cyprus
Czech Republic: Czech National Bank
Denmark: National Bank of Denmark
Dominican Republic: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic
East Caribbean area: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
Ecuador: Central Bank of Ecuador
Egypt: Central Bank of Egypt
El Salvador: Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea: Bank of Central African States
Estonia: Bank of Estonia
Ethiopia: National Bank of Ethiopia
European Union: European Central Bank
Fiji: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Finland: Bank of Finland
France: Bank of France
Gabon: Bank of Central African States
The Gambia: Central Bank of The Gambia
Georgia: National Bank of Georgia
Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank
Ghana: Bank of Ghana
Greece: Bank of Greece
Guatemala: Bank of Guatemala
Guinea Bissau: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Guyana: Bank of Guyana
Haiti: Central Bank of Haiti
Honduras: Central Bank of Honduras
Hong Kong: Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Hungary: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Iceland: Central Bank of Iceland
India: Reserve Bank of India
Indonesia: Bank Indonesia
Iran: The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Iraq: Central Bank of Iraq
Ireland: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland
Israel: Bank of Israel
Italy: Bank of Italy
Jamaica: Bank of Jamaica
Japan: Bank of Japan
Jordan: Central Bank of Jordan
Kazakhstan: National Bank of Kazakhstan
Kenya: Central Bank of Kenya
Korea: Bank of Korea
Kuwait: Central Bank of Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan: National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia: Bank of Latvia
Lebanon: Central Bank of Lebanon
Lesotho: Central Bank of Lesotho
Libya: Central Bank of Libya (Their most recent conquest)
Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay
Lithuania: Bank of Lithuania
Luxembourg: Central Bank of Luxembourg
Macao: Monetary Authority of Macao
Macedonia: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
Madagascar: Central Bank of Madagascar
Malawi: Reserve Bank of Malawi
Malaysia: Central Bank of Malaysia
Mali: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Malta: Central Bank of Malta
Mauritius: Bank of Mauritius
Mexico: Bank of Mexico
Moldova: National Bank of Moldova
Mongolia: Bank of Mongolia
Montenegro: Central Bank of Montenegro
Morocco: Bank of Morocco
Mozambique: Bank of Mozambique
Namibia: Bank of Namibia
Nepal: Central Bank of Nepal
Netherlands: Netherlands Bank
Netherlands Antilles: Bank of the Netherlands Antilles
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Nicaragua: Central Bank of Nicaragua
Niger: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Nigeria: Central Bank of Nigeria
Norway: Central Bank of Norway
Oman: Central Bank of Oman
Pakistan: State Bank of Pakistan
Papua New Guinea: Bank of Papua New Guinea
Paraguay: Central Bank of Paraguay
Peru: Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Philip Pines: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Poland: National Bank of Poland
Portugal: Bank of Portugal
Qatar: Qatar Central Bank
Romania: National Bank of Romania
Russia: Central Bank of Russia
Rwanda: National Bank of Rwanda
San Marino: Central Bank of the Republic of San Marino
Samoa: Central Bank of Samoa
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
Senegal: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Serbia: National Bank of Serbia
Seychelles: Central Bank of Seychelles
Sierra Leone: Bank of Sierra Leone
Singapore: Monetary Authority of Singapore
Slovakia: National Bank of Slovakia
Slovenia: Bank of Slovenia
Solomon Islands: Central Bank of Solomon Islands
South Africa: South African Reserve Bank
Spain: Bank of Spain
Sri Lanka: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Sudan: Bank of Sudan
Surinam: Central Bank of Suriname
Swaziland: The Central Bank of Swaziland
Sweden: Sveriges Riksbank
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank
Tajikistan: National Bank of Tajikistan
Tanzania: Bank of Tanzania
Thailand: Bank of Thailand
Togo: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Tonga: National Reserve Bank of Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia: Central Bank of Tunisia
Turkey: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Uganda: Bank of Uganda
Ukraine: National Bank of Ukraine
United Arab Emirates: Central Bank of United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom: Bank of England
United States: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Vanuatu: Reserve Bank of Vanuatu
Venezuela: Central Bank of Venezuela
Vietnam: The State Bank of Vietnam
Yemen: Central Bank of Yemen
Zambia: Bank of Zambia
Zimbabwe: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
The FED and the IRS
FACT: US Federal Reserve is a privately-owned company, sitting on its very own patch of land, immune to the US laws.
Q

[Inspiretk]

Check when the FED was created
Check when the Titanic Sank
Check Who DIDN'T go on the Titanic at the last minute
Check Who died on the Titanic

So you have to think, who was opposed to the creation of the FED, and if they died on the Titanic.

* 14 years BEFORE Titanic sank, a book called “Wreck of the Titan" by Morgan Robertson was published, and is very similar to how the Titanic Sank. Morgan Robertson died when? 24 March 1915. Titanic sank when? 14 April 1912 – 15 April 1912. So 3 years later, Author dies [killed?].

People who opposed the creation of the FED: Benjamin Guggehneim, Isa Strauss, Jacob Astor [VERY RICH AT THE TIME], all died on the Titanic.

Who was it that cancelled going onto the Titanic on the last minute? You guessed it - JP Morgan was booked on the voyage but canceled at the last second.
Who paid for the titanic to be built? The Titanic was funded by the International Mercantile Marine Company, owned by American J.P. Morgan.

Interesting how JP Morgan DIDN'T go on the Titanic on the last minute?

When was the FED formed? 23 December 1913
Titanic sank 1912, FED formed 1913. Wow what a coincident!

I know Martin don't believe in this theory crap, but I beg to differ. It's too much of a coincident for it to be impossible to be a coincident. It was all planned by these sick people. They want to control the money supply to suck the money out of the people and into their pockets.

You have to say, all the above is very accurate. Check all the dates and names if you want to debunk anything.

[Thekees]

Has anyone tried to work out whats going to happen the next few months with gold, the pound and EURUSD?
Armstrong posted the arrays of all three and I am hoping we can start a discussion about what everyones thoughts are on where price will go.

Here is my a summary and what I think will happen.

Gold elected a monthly bearish and august was a turning point with the next in November. For September there is a directional change, high volatility and a Panic cycle! so it looks like gold is in for a ride!
Also, according to the weekly turning points Socrates sometimes posts, 03-09 and 17-09 are important turning points, (I´m not sure if they are correct since they are provided sporadically) 
In any case im thinking maybe next week will be the low intra day or closing and then a big move up.

Pound is similar, elected monthly bearish and august was a turning point with October likely the next one. September is also has a directional change, high volatility and again a panic cycle! Armtsrong wrote "When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against the dollar into October". Price closed below this level so this implies there wont be a rally? will price just consolidate for now as the both the pound and the USD lose value?

And lastly the EURUSD, august was also a turning point until ideally october, september also has a small panic cycle. Armsrong also wrote that a close above the bearish monthly reversal of 1.1550 would imply a rally because there was a monthly bullish at 1.1429 which we have now elected at 1.40-1.45% away so we may have a 1% rule in play.
According to the weekly turning points 20-08 was one and the next is 03-09.
The 20-08 turning point was spot on as highest close, this week made a intraday high and closed making nice bearish pin bar.
So putting all this together I am expecting the EURUSD will move lower next week and atleast touching the elected bullish reversal at 1.1429 making a intraday or weekly low close and then turn back up the week of 10-09.

I could of course be completely wrong .

any thoughts?

 I agree with everything except for the Gold turning point the one you are referring to was posted on the 20th August. This is the latest Gold Array(27th Aug) posted which points to 9/10 and not 9/3 as a turning point which lines up with the gold benchmark due the week of 9/10.

"Centering on time using the Array, prospective Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 8/27, 9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 9/24, 10/8, 10/15, 10/22 and 10/29. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. Despite everything, the primary targets are, 8/27, 9/10, 9/24, 10/15 and 10/29. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Sep. 10, 2018 and Mon. Sep. 24, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of September 10th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 8/27 until 9/24 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 5-week period. "

"Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of June 11th at 131300 for 9 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of August 13th. "

Ok Cool, I diden´t see the new turning points for gold. Interesting that both EURUSD and gold have a turning point for 10-09 while most other currencies have their turning points 03-0-.

I re watched the WEC video I posted yesterday and I recommend everyone to watch if you want to learn about arrays and reversal. What I diden´t take in to account in my post is that since it is a panic cycle for gold, EURUSD and GBPUSD there is a good chance that price will break previous monthly low before a bounce, lets wait and see.

[Traxo]

Shelby responded to Martin's recent blog and updated his analysis:

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@anonymint/re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-goldgoatsnguns-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-rises-because-land-is-becoming-worthless-20180905t155947492z

[Yasinionela]

Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

[sidhujag]

Is the idea that housing prices would initially go up as USA becomes a safe heaven until the eventual collapse?  And then housing plummets? I guess the question is Would you buy a house in California this year?

its a global market.. here in vancouver looks like top is in.. id assume.it tops globally because australia was the other hot market which topped too

[STT]

Doesnt Canada benefit from Chinese money cycling out of the country and could possibly see that money long term if China becomes opposed to holding dollar debt long term in order to retain a fixed worth to their national currency then it might be places like Canada that benefit as that value flows to things like houses or land for retirement for example

buy a house in California this year

Better to buy a property or in an area that suffered some damage and rebuild with some attempt to mitigate some of the fire risks.  I dont know about investment safe haven so much but the house has a utility worth to it and its ideal to acquire that usage as cheaply as possible so that maintenance is feasible and far cheaper then renting

[sidhujag]

Doesnt Canada benefit from Chinese money cycling out of the country and could possibly see that money long term if China becomes opposed to holding dollar debt long term in order to retain a fixed worth to their national currency then it might be places like Canada that benefit as that value flows to things like houses or land for retirement for example

buy a house in California this year

Better to buy a property or in an area that suffered some damage and rebuild with some attempt to mitigate some of the fire risks.  I dont know about investment safe haven so much but the house has a utility worth to it and its ideal to acquire that usage as cheaply as possible so that maintenance is feasible and far cheaper then renting

no they added foreign buyer tax

[florianuhlemann]

thank you, I will read, but I also want to say that the opinion about the economy can not be formed on the views of one person

[Xisunheber]

I believe the monetary system is heading for a total collapse around mid 2017, you want to hedge against government so timing the lows for private assets before the stampede will be most important, but I agree with staying away from real estate.

[mark 5]

I've been following Martin Armstrong recently and I think he's on point so far with 2015.75. It's not exactly a certain day that something will happen but rather we are now in a period of downturn for the next few years.
 

[PiPiNoooo]

I thought the question was about the top of US and other western markets, so that's why I said that Armstrong is not expecting the top at 2015.75 in the US market. I answered to the question exactly same what you are saying that according to Armstrong the top will be around 2017 in the US market.