Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Gumbi]

I wonder if using the strongest targets exclusively will yield superior results? I also see that, even if the arrays we're wrong, Armstrong's posts update as things go even before hand, which helps avoid some potentially wrong things. I acknowledge that, even without the February volatility call, many of his forecasts were correct this year in the volatility. For example, a Direction change in one of the weeks of June. The market had been sideways for a couple of weeks up till then, so it warned that the breakout would happen that time, which did. There's also a Euro forecast which can be a 'big trade', says Armstrong. I'll try and post that one later today so we can analyze it.

The higher the bars the higher the probability of success when using the array. I also don't think you should be posting things from Armstrong's PRIVATE blog we should have a forum just as soon as the trader service comes out. Regarding the big trade if the monthly reversal is elected you get a big GAP to the next reversal with no support in between and its as simple as that.

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[bangkit tri]

I wonder if using the strongest targets exclusively will yield superior results? I also see that, even if the arrays we're wrong, Armstrong's posts update as things go even before hand, which helps avoid some potentially wrong things. I acknowledge that, even without the February volatility call, many of his forecasts were correct this year in the volatility. For example, a Direction change in one of the weeks of June. The market had been sideways for a couple of weeks up till then, so it warned that the breakout would happen that time, which did. There's also a Euro forecast which can be a 'big trade', says Armstrong. I'll try and post that one later today so we can analyze it.

the edge is you. What you are doing is essentially a random walk.. when you start to see price action around s&r and understand what herd is doing and apply some proper money management you can be successful. Most traders arent consistent with their systems. Blindly following numbers is another way to donate money.

right, not being consistent with yourself being a bomerang, so it is detrimental. for that, learn discipline about trading targets and stop losses. fix every mistake, until we can make consistent profits

[TheReverend]

well actually I like the idea, but in my opinion over time, the way people make money is of course different.
people used to invest in gold only and of course only rich people can make investments, but now no longer, everyone can invest according to their finances.
and also various types of investments, making it easier for people to do it.

[Thekees]

I wonder if using the strongest targets exclusively will yield superior results? I also see that, even if the arrays we're wrong, Armstrong's posts update as things go even before hand, which helps avoid some potentially wrong things. I acknowledge that, even without the February volatility call, many of his forecasts were correct this year in the volatility. For example, a Direction change in one of the weeks of June. The market had been sideways for a couple of weeks up till then, so it warned that the breakout would happen that time, which did. There's also a Euro forecast which can be a 'big trade', says Armstrong. I'll try and post that one later today so we can analyze it.

The higher the bars the higher the probability of success when using the array. I also don't think you should be posting things from Armstrong's PRIVATE blog we should have a forum just as soon as the trader service comes out. Regarding the big trade if the monthly reversal is elected you get a big GAP to the next reversal with no support in between and its as simple as that.

The trader thing was supposed to come out a long time ago. I don't think it is coming soon. The posts were to illustrate validity, or lack thereof, of Armstrong's predictions. So far, his forecast that came out last week in that this week would be a directional change for all 3 indices coupled with a Wednesday-Thursday low is coming to fruition. Again, we need to make a Monday high intraday or close to have it correct. For the Euro, I think he said entry was for this week or something if it failed to close above the bullish- one of those 'running out of time' trades.

The Euro is quite interesting. He said we elected a minor weekly reversals so we will likely have a high 01-10. He then said that according to his what-if models that if the 01-10 was indeed a high then there would be a bearish reversal at 1.2200, so really far away, and so a pretty bullish signal for the dollar. What I find interesting is that price has now dropped below the quarterly bearish at 1.1661, one day before the quarterly closing. He also said in a previous post that there could be a October high followed by a big move lower in the euro for November. So lets see if he is correct, will we elect the quarterly bearish and next week see a high then followed by the euro moving lower?

It will also be interesting to see if the Dollar index can elect the monthly bullish at 95.16, there are also additional reversal weekly and monthly for AUD, NZD and USDJPY so I guess ff these get elected i means the dollar should start/continue to strengthen over the next few months.

[Inspiretk]

Woah check this out:
ROTHSCHILD OWNED & CONTROLLED BANKS:
Afghanistan: Bank of Afghanistan
Albania: Bank of Albania
Algeria: Bank of Algeria
Argentina: Central Bank of Argentina
Armenia: Central Bank of Armenia
Aruba: Central Bank of Aruba
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia
Austria: Austrian National Bank
Azerbaijan: Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic
Bahamas: Central Bank of The Bahamas
Bahrain: Central Bank of Bahrain
Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bank
Barbados: Central Bank of Barbados
Belarus: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus
Belgium: National Bank of Belgium
Belize: Central Bank of Belize
Benin: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Bermuda: Bermuda Monetary Authority
Bhutan: Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan
Bolivia: Central Bank of Bolivia
Bosnia: Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana: Bank of Botswana
Brazil: Central Bank of Brazil
Bulgaria: Bulgarian National Bank
Burkina Faso: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Burundi: Bank of the Republic of Burundi
Cambodia: National Bank of Cambodia
Came Roon: Bank of Central African States
Canada: Bank of Canada – Banque du Canada
Cayman Islands: Cayman Islands Monetary Authority
Central African Republic: Bank of Central African States
Chad: Bank of Central African States
Chile: Central Bank of Chile
China: The People’s Bank of China
Colombia: Bank of the Republic
Comoros: Central Bank of Comoros
Congo: Bank of Central African States
Costa Rica: Central Bank of Costa Rica
Côte d’Ivoire: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Croatia: Croatian National Bank
Cuba: Central Bank of Cuba
Cyprus: Central Bank of Cyprus
Czech Republic: Czech National Bank
Denmark: National Bank of Denmark
Dominican Republic: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic
East Caribbean area: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
Ecuador: Central Bank of Ecuador
Egypt: Central Bank of Egypt
El Salvador: Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea: Bank of Central African States
Estonia: Bank of Estonia
Ethiopia: National Bank of Ethiopia
European Union: European Central Bank
Fiji: Reserve Bank of Fiji
Finland: Bank of Finland
France: Bank of France
Gabon: Bank of Central African States
The Gambia: Central Bank of The Gambia
Georgia: National Bank of Georgia
Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank
Ghana: Bank of Ghana
Greece: Bank of Greece
Guatemala: Bank of Guatemala
Guinea Bissau: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Guyana: Bank of Guyana
Haiti: Central Bank of Haiti
Honduras: Central Bank of Honduras
Hong Kong: Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Hungary: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Iceland: Central Bank of Iceland
India: Reserve Bank of India
Indonesia: Bank Indonesia
Iran: The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Iraq: Central Bank of Iraq
Ireland: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland
Israel: Bank of Israel
Italy: Bank of Italy
Jamaica: Bank of Jamaica
Japan: Bank of Japan
Jordan: Central Bank of Jordan
Kazakhstan: National Bank of Kazakhstan
Kenya: Central Bank of Kenya
Korea: Bank of Korea
Kuwait: Central Bank of Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan: National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia: Bank of Latvia
Lebanon: Central Bank of Lebanon
Lesotho: Central Bank of Lesotho
Libya: Central Bank of Libya (Their most recent conquest)
Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay
Lithuania: Bank of Lithuania
Luxembourg: Central Bank of Luxembourg
Macao: Monetary Authority of Macao
Macedonia: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
Madagascar: Central Bank of Madagascar
Malawi: Reserve Bank of Malawi
Malaysia: Central Bank of Malaysia
Mali: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Malta: Central Bank of Malta
Mauritius: Bank of Mauritius
Mexico: Bank of Mexico
Moldova: National Bank of Moldova
Mongolia: Bank of Mongolia
Montenegro: Central Bank of Montenegro
Morocco: Bank of Morocco
Mozambique: Bank of Mozambique
Namibia: Bank of Namibia
Nepal: Central Bank of Nepal
Netherlands: Netherlands Bank
Netherlands Antilles: Bank of the Netherlands Antilles
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Nicaragua: Central Bank of Nicaragua
Niger: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Nigeria: Central Bank of Nigeria
Norway: Central Bank of Norway
Oman: Central Bank of Oman
Pakistan: State Bank of Pakistan
Papua New Guinea: Bank of Papua New Guinea
Paraguay: Central Bank of Paraguay
Peru: Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Philip Pines: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Poland: National Bank of Poland
Portugal: Bank of Portugal
Qatar: Qatar Central Bank
Romania: National Bank of Romania
Russia: Central Bank of Russia
Rwanda: National Bank of Rwanda
San Marino: Central Bank of the Republic of San Marino
Samoa: Central Bank of Samoa
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
Senegal: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Serbia: National Bank of Serbia
Seychelles: Central Bank of Seychelles
Sierra Leone: Bank of Sierra Leone
Singapore: Monetary Authority of Singapore
Slovakia: National Bank of Slovakia
Slovenia: Bank of Slovenia
Solomon Islands: Central Bank of Solomon Islands
South Africa: South African Reserve Bank
Spain: Bank of Spain
Sri Lanka: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Sudan: Bank of Sudan
Surinam: Central Bank of Suriname
Swaziland: The Central Bank of Swaziland
Sweden: Sveriges Riksbank
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank
Tajikistan: National Bank of Tajikistan
Tanzania: Bank of Tanzania
Thailand: Bank of Thailand
Togo: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
Tonga: National Reserve Bank of Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia: Central Bank of Tunisia
Turkey: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Uganda: Bank of Uganda
Ukraine: National Bank of Ukraine
United Arab Emirates: Central Bank of United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom: Bank of England
United States: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Vanuatu: Reserve Bank of Vanuatu
Venezuela: Central Bank of Venezuela
Vietnam: The State Bank of Vietnam
Yemen: Central Bank of Yemen
Zambia: Bank of Zambia
Zimbabwe: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
The FED and the IRS
FACT: US Federal Reserve is a privately-owned company, sitting on its very own patch of land, immune to the US laws.
Q

With date of creation for those that's interested:
Country   Date
Sweden: Sveriges Riksbank   1668
United Kingdom: Governor and Company of the Bank of England   1694
Spain: Bank of Spain   1782
France: Bank of France   1800
Finland: Bank of Finland   1812
Netherlands: Netherlands Bank   1814
Austria: Austrian National Bank   1816
Norway: Central Bank of Norway   1816
Denmark: National Bank of Denmark   1818
Netherlands Antilles: Bank of the Netherlands Antilles   1828
Portugal: Bank of Portugal   1846
Belgium: National Bank of Belgium   1850
Russia: Central Bank of Russia   1860
Peru: Banco Central de Reserva del Peru   1871
Bulgaria: Bulgarian National Bank   1879
Colombia: Banco Nacional   1880
Romania: National Bank of Romania   1880
Japan: Bank of Japan   1882
Serbia: National Bank of Serbia   1884
Italy: Bank of Italy   1893
Colombia: Banco Central de Colombia   1905
Ethiopia: National Bank of Ethiopia   1906
Morocco Banque d'Etat du Maroc   1906
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank   1907
Australia: CommBank   1911
United States: Federal Reserve   1913
United States Fed Bank of New York   1914
Estonia: Bank of Estonia   1919
South Africa: South African Reserve Bank   1921
Latvia: Bank of Latvia   1922
Lithuania: Bank of Lithuania   1922
Peru: Central Reserve Bank of Peru   1922
Colombia: Bank of the Republics   1923
Hungary: Magyar Nemzeti Bank   1924
Albania: Bank of Albania   1925
Chile: Central Bank of Chile   1925
Ecuador: Central Bank of Ecuador   1925
Madagascar: Central Bank of Madagascar   1925
Mexico: Bank of Mexico   1925
Greece: Bank of Greece   1927
Bolivia: Central Bank of Bolivia   1928
Turkey: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey   1930
El Salvador: Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador   1934
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand   1934
Argentina: Central Bank of Argentina   1935
Canada: Bank of Canada – Banque du Canada   1935
India: Reserve Bank of India   1935
Southern Rhodesia Currency Board   1938
Zambia: Bank of Zambia   1938
Afghanistan: Bank of Afghanistan   1939
Venezuela: Central Bank of Venezuela   1939
Thailand: Bank of Thailand   1942
Ireland: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland   1943
Guatemala: Bank of Guatemala   1945
Poland: National Bank of Poland   1945
United Kingdom: Bank of England Nationalized   1946
Dominican Republic: Central Bank of the Dominican Republic   1947
Iraq: Central Bank of Iraq   1947
China: The People’s Bank of China   1948
Pakistan: Bank of Pakistan Order   1948
Philip Pines: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas   1949
Costa Rica: Central Bank of Costa Rica   1950
Cuba: Banco Central de Cuba   1950
Honduras: Central Bank of Honduras   1950
Korea: Bank of Korea   1950
Sri Lanka: Central Bank of Sri Lanka   1950
Vietnam: National Bank of Vietnam   1951
Paraguay: Central Bank of Paraguay   1952
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency   1952
Central African Currency Board   1953
Indonesia: Bank Indonesia   1953
Cambodia: National Bank of Cambodia   1954
Israel: Bank of Israel   1954
Libya: Central Bank of Libya   1956
Nepal: Central Bank of Nepal   1956
Germany: Deutsche Bundesbank   1957
Ghana: Bank of Ghana   1957
Surinam: Central Bank of Suriname   1957
Nigeria: Central Bank of Nigeria   1958
Tunisia: Central Bank of Tunisia   1958
Benin: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Burkina Faso: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Côte d’Ivoire: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Guinea Bissau: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Malaysia: Central Bank of Malaysia   1959
Mali: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Morocco: Bank of Morocco   1959
Niger: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Senegal: Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)   1959
Togo: Central Bank of West African States   1959
Australia: Reserve Bank   1960
Iran: The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran   1960
Nicaragua: Central Bank of Nicaragua   1960
Sudan: Bank of Sudan   1960
Egypt: Central Bank of Egypt   1961
Iceland: Central Bank of Iceland   1961
Jamaica: Bank of Jamaica   1961
Algeria: Bank of Algeria   1962
Cyprus: Central Bank of Cyprus   1963
Lebanon: Central Bank of Lebanon   1963
Sierra Leone: Bank of Sierra Leone   1963
Brazil: Central Bank of Brazil   1964
Jordan: Central Bank of Jordan   1964
Rwanda: National Bank of Rwanda   1964
Trinidad and Tobago: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago   1964
Zimbabwe: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe   1964
Guyana: Bank of Guyana   1965
Tanzania: Bank of Tanzania   1965
Burundi: Bank of the Republic of Burundi   1966
Kenya: Central Bank of Kenya   1966
Uganda: Bank of Uganda   1966
Mauritius: Bank of Mauritius   1967
Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay   1967
Malawi: Reserve Bank of Malawi   1968
Malta: Central Bank of Malta   1968
Bermuda: Bermuda Monetary Authority   1969
Kuwait: Central Bank of Kuwait   1969
Bangladesh: Bangladesh Bank   1971
Singapore: Monetary Authority of Singapore   1971
The Gambia: Central Bank of The Gambia   1971
Yemen: Central Bank of Yemen   1971
Barbados: Central Bank of Barbados   1972
Came Roon: Bank of Central African States   1972
Central African Republic: Bank of Central African States   1972
Chad: Bank of Central African States   1972
Congo: Bank of Central African States   1972
Equatorial Guinea: Bank of Central African States   1972
Gabon: Bank of Central African States   1972
Bahrain: Central Bank of Bahrain   1973
Papua New Guinea: Bank of Papua New Guinea   1973
Qatar: Qatar Central Bank   1973
Bahamas: Central Bank of The Bahamas   1974
Oman: Central Bank of Oman   1974
Pakistan: State Bank of Pakistan   1974
Swaziland: The Central Bank of Swaziland   1974
Botswana: Bank of Botswana   1975
Mozambique: Bank of Mozambique   1975
Monetary Authority of Belize   1976
Vietnam: The State Bank of Vietnam   1976
Lesotho: Central Bank of Lesotho   1978
Haiti: Central Bank of Haiti   1979
United Arab Emirates: Central Bank of United Arab Emirates   1980
Comoros: Central Bank of Comoros   1981
Vanuatu: Central Bank of Vanuatu   1981
Belize: Central Bank of Belize   1982
Bhutan: Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan   1982
East Caribbean area: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank   1983
Fiji: Reserve Bank of Fiji   1983
Seychelles: Central Bank of Seychelles   1983
Solomon Islands: Central Bank of Solomon Islands   1983
Samoa: Central Bank of Samoa   1984
Aruba: Central Bank of Aruba   1986
Tonga: National Reserve Bank of Tonga   1989
Vanuatu: Reserve Bank of Vanuatu   1989
Croatia: Croatian National Bank   1990
Namibia: Bank of Namibia   1990
Armenia: Central Bank of Armenia   1991
Georgia: National Bank of Georgia   1991
Kyrgyzstan: National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic   1991
Macedonia: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia   1991
Moldova: National Bank of Moldova   1991
Mongolia: Bank of Mongolia   1991
Slovenia: Bank of Slovenia   1991
Tajikistan: National Bank of Tajikistan   1991
Ukraine: National Bank of Ukraine   1991
Azerbaijan: Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic   1992
Belarus: National Bank of the Republic of Belarus   1992
Czech Republic: Czech National Bank   1993
Hong Kong: Hong Kong Monetary Authority   1993
Kazakhstan: National Bank of Kazakhstan   1993
Philip Pines: New Central Bank Act   1993
Slovakia: National Bank of Slovakia   1993
Bosnia: Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina   1997
Cayman Islands: Cayman Islands Monetary Authority   1997
Cuba: Central Bank of Cuba   1997
European Union: European Central Bank   1998
Luxembourg: Central Bank of Luxembourg   1998
United Kingdom: Bank of England Public   1998
European Central Bank   1999
Macao: Monetary Authority of Macao   1999
Montenegro: Central Bank of Montenegro   2001
San Marino: Central Bank of the Republic of San Marino   2005

[Inspiretk]

I think it's best to take Armstrong as another indicator. Don't believe in blind faith. Nobody is 100% accurate. I believe he's more accurate than your normal Economist that's for sure!

I mean future will prove past. So Armstrong has said Bitcoin will NOT reach 100k. I recken it'll hit 1 million as predicted by John McAfee. We'll see if Armstrong is right or not. I think Armstrong is wrong on bitcoin, he just don't understand it, or don't want to understand it, or lying about bitcoin. We'll see.

Also for the record, Hillary was going to start world war 3 if she had became President. There was a 16 year plan. 8 years Obama to setup the war, and Hillary was going to start the war and with her 8 years.

Trump won, and now they're at war taking down the Cabal, Good vs Evil. When Trump won the Presidency, he took out the Bush family and Clinton Family. He's now taken out the House of Saud (Saudi Arabia). His next target is Rothchilds, and then Soros. Right now, Trump has appointed his own people in the Fed, so he's working on the Rothchilds now.

Also, there's a real war right now. America is still in a state of war, since 9/11. Trump has taken this and continued it. It's Good vs Evil now. He's targeting the Cabal. Giving power back to the people.

[Gumbi]

Got the Monday high. Tomorrow is a Panic Cycle so its possible that it can be a Tuesday intraday high. Looking for places to short

70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

The next level of resistance on the daily channel price targets for the Dow is at 26926 area which could be a good place to short the market. So far the daily array has been very accurate even though as Armstrong has said The Reversal System is the only game in town. If we exceed the September high we should move higher into year end.

The trader service should come out this month or early November I am certain because Armstrong has said it is in the final stages and will be live well in advance of the WEC which is being held on November the 16th.

[NotFromReddit]

Today was a Directional Change. I do not have arrays on the daily timeframe beyond that, but it was a minor turning point as well, so today might be the low.

Week of 10/15 shows high volatility, but also the highest Composite reading. How do you interpret this?

[MA_talk]

I may have said this in the previous posts, but Armstrong said in an email (from his assistant) that the bars in the array represent the price levels.  I also asked the color coding of the bars, and he said that when it changes direction, the color changes.  Prior to that, I always thought that there are some magic or crypto info embedded.  But after that, I found that most of the direction change or turning points are at where the actual bars (price levels) change directions (which is obvious, by the definition of turning point).  There were some that aren't like that, but most that I've found are like that.  I'm not too sure why.

Regardless, "bars represent the actual price levels".  And you would think the FIRST row, composite, would be the most significant, which combines all of his timing models.

In order to figure out whether Armstrong's arrays are useful, you MUST apply the same criterion every time.  For example, you must measure the percentage of prediction success for EVERY turning point.  You cannot cherry-pick the one that he got, and ignore 5 other ones that he missed.  Or you can see if the bars in the composite arrays tell the correct relative price levels for each timeframe.

If not, adding your own thoughts and interpretation on top of his array information, is basically adding your trading skills/edges on top of his raw information.

For the longest time reading his blog/array, when that net result of "my thinking on top of his array" is wrong, I thought that I must have interpreted his array incorrectly.
When the net result is correct, I thought that "wow, Armstrong is CORRECT!".

Do yourself a favor.  Collect the actual statistics by measuring the information from his array OBJECTIVELY.  If it's not even 60% correct, throw yourself a dice next time before you want to make a trade.

[MA_talk]

I read his blog for 16+ years, and he NEVER said that anywhere, until I paid his useless reports that were filled with 97% history, but just 3% ambiguous forecast, and tried to ask him those questions.

His assistant emailed me back with the answers, and I was told that "the bars ARE the price levels".

What I'm saying here is collaborated by someone else who attended his WEC seminar (in one of the link that I posted at straightdope.com)  He essentially doesn't explain much of anything about the arrays.  Instead he gets another person to "explain" and confound you further.

If there is anything worthwhile in the arrays, I think at the minimum, people who bought into WEC seminars, should have been told.

[MA_talk]

Again, over so many years, Armstrong "did" say MANY things.  You cannot judge the accuracy by just one thing that he said.

What's most important is that HOW MANY of that were correct?  And you will only remember the most memorable/accurate, if you don't keep the actual statistics.

He kept saying that long term forecast is a lot easier and more accurate than the short-term forecasts.

Well, plague NEVER happened in 2014, nor 2015, nor 2016, nor 2017, nor 2018, which he kept postponing the doomsday.

And war nor civil war did NOT happen either at the scale that he was indicating with his "cycle of wars".  He was comparing to World War 1, 2, etc.

And earthquakes?!  And European disintegration, fall of euro?

Again, by his own words, if you are not looking at things globally, any of your forecast cannot be correct.  And since he did NOT get the plague, war, or earthquake correct, according to his own words, there is NO WAY that he can get things correct at the global level either, since "in his own words",  such events like plagues, weather, earthquakes, will affect the global economy dramatically, and his "AI computer" is watching these events closely.

He cannot even get the peak of the current bull correct, and has been trying to "sneak in" a peak call here and there since 2012.  Shouldn't he be able to forecast the stock market for the long term??  NO, instead, he walks you down via reversal systems, and decision trees, etc.  Why?  Because the long-term future is not something that he can forecast at all.  So he needs to continuously change his calls, based on the market conditions.  And then give you the "cycle inversion" so that the peak could be extended indefinitely.

For an analyst with integrity, either you call it years ago, and stick with that.  Or admit that you cannot do ANY long-term forecast.  Don't change your answers, as you see it, and as time goes by.

And then for the short-term forecast, just LOOK at the bars, and see if the relative price levels are even correct.

[Inspiretk]

He cannot even get the peak of the current bull correct, and has been trying to "sneak in" a peak call here and there since 2012.  Shouldn't he be able to forecast the stock market for the long term??  NO, instead, he walks you down via reversal systems, and decision trees, etc.  Why?  Because the long-term future is not something that he can forecast at all.  So he needs to continuously change his calls, based on the market conditions.  And then give you the "cycle inversion" so that the peak could be extended indefinitely.

Do you have link for Armstrong sneaking in the peak call? From my memory, Armstrong has stated this is the longest hated bull run. I havn't seen him forecast a drop. Would be nice if you have links?

[Kiwibird]

I was under the impression that highs/lows sync with the Reversals. So if a Reversal is elected, then the opposite move should be small. Because if they were price levels, then what would the point of the Reversals even be? This is also referring to one of his 'running out of time' trades, where, if the Reversal is not elected, then the price must turn all the way back. For example, If a Bullish Reversal is elected, then support moves up. Assuming support it holds, that price should be exceeded on the upside. Armstrong also said that the Dow elected the Bullish Reversal while the Nasdaq did not, reflecting capital flow change into large cap companies. After analyzing various companies, I bought some XLV and XLI ETFs today. They have recently outperformed, and I expect this trend to continue. We'll see.

His forecasts, as he admits, are not set in stone. He gives possibilities. Eg the peak can happen in either 2032 or 2022 (as far as I know). If X happens, then Y, but if not, then if A, then B. Who knows. A lot of what he says is like that. Even so, he has given specific forecasts (a close below X today means we will his support, closing even lower at Y means it will happen this week, etc.) Again, I cannot speak for him over the years, but he has specifically stated that going above the September high this month means new highs in November. So we need the Dow to make a high in November for him to be right.

In previous articles Armstrong says the 8.6 year US Share Market cycle last fell on 1st Oct 2017. 8.6 yrs after this date is Jan 28/29 2022.  Could that be the high?  Socrates sometimes outlines 2022 as an important date for the DOW.
Using his cycle calculation within that 8.6y period starting from 1 Oct 2017, the next TIME target for the US Share Market is next month 7 Nov 2018..also the 21/22 Nov 2018 is a peak date for the ECM (which is the economic confidence model for the whole world).  Worth keeping an eye on 7 Nov 2018 perhaps?!

[MA_talk]

I cannot find his attempted call on stock peaks.  I recalled he tried to sneak in about 3 times.  But using search, I came up with his call on peak in bond markets:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-peak-in-government-a-low-in-interest-rates/

And that was NOT correct.  The peak of interest rate indicated by TLT US bonds, or European bonds was NOT on ANY ECM dates.  Peak for TLT was July 8th, 2016.  He never defined exactly what is "peak of confidence in government" for the ECM in 2015.75, but it's obvious to ANYONE that confidence in government should have been measured by the government bond prices, just like the above link, as he was trying to allude to it as well.  BUT he didn't get the peak of bond prices correct AT ALL, and everybody knows that this would have been the bubble to pop, as the bond bull market has gone on for some 30 years.

Notice his wording in his post that allows him to claim credit, in case he is correct.

bikefront, I kept repeating this.  You MUST "measure" his prediction success SYSTEMATICALLY.
Of course, he "ALLOWS" possibilities, so that he can get everything correct.  What about all the long term forecasts that he claims he can make, and that he claimed he made.
Anyone predicts like he does can get everything correct.  If it's not correct, just say that the alternative scenario has been elected.  But who will be stuck with the trading losses?

Kiwibird, I posted how ECM length canNOT be 8.6 years, because that is simply NOT the right number, according to Armstrong HIMSELF (he posted different dates for 2015.75).  You can scroll back and look at what I posted.  8.6 is a MYTH.  If it's a science, then it is repeatable.  It cannot be 8.615 now, and 8.600 later, and 8.61513, and then 8.59.  According to Armstrong, ECM is accurate to the day.  So 8.6 MUST be accurate within 0.3%.  But it's not.  In fact, it's just whatever closest number that will make the math & dates correct.

[Kiwibird]

I found this video of the 2016 WEC to be very helpful.  https://vimeo.com/198896912
In the 2nd part, Erwin Pletsch outlines how to use the Reversals and Arrays.  You also have to read Models & Methodologies (see the website) in tandem with the video to get to grips with how to forecast.  I understand why he gets Erwin to do the workshop - holding a 48hr event like this must be hard work for someone like Armstrong who is in his late 60s - spread the load and Erwin has been around Socrates since the 80s, so he knows it inside out. 

MA did forecast at the 2016 WEC that the DOW would enter a Phase Transition and rise for the next 2 years into 2018 as long as it elected the Monthly Bullish 18,625 which it did at the end of November 2016 : https://vimeo.com/198896912 - (listen at 2 hours+50mins & 3 hours+25mins).

I also urge you to watch The Forecaster on vimeo (like $5).  I met his good friend Larry Edelson back in 2015 when he was doing a Q&A at the documentary screening where i live.  In the bar afterwards he said that Armstrong sleeps only 4hrs at a time (and I guess possibly naps during the day) and is up late writing..the blog is free and I think he does it during these dark hours, hence the spelling, punctuation etc...chronological order would be amazing but I doubt he has the time to do this. 
I'm under the assumption that his bread and butter comes from advising major institutions etc and that he cannot personally trade as this would mean he's conflicted.

Here is one of the latest podcasts from 25 September..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9PPaVAkZ4

I personally don't trade but try to invest long term with the trend - so far he has been spot on regarding longterm forecasts.. as Erwin says, day and week trading there is too much 'noise'. 

[trc4949]

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash ?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/

[MA_talk]

I heard that one before.  He called gold "the greatest trade of the CENTURY" before.  That's his usage of sensationalism to trap readers.

Hey, what about the validity for his long term forecast?  He SAID it's for the CENTURY for gold too.

KiwiBird, it will be very difficult to find another person who has read as much on Armstrong as I did.  I read ALL of his public posts since year 1999, except for the last 2 or 3 years.  I "know" everything about his "methodologies" which are not very useful, and I can tell you all about cycle inversion, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, PI, 26, 37.1, 8.6, 8.615, 224 or 223, 52, and all of the magic numbers.

There is nothing magically about sleeping 4 hours.  I sleep 5 hour everyday.  And many people sleep just 4 hours.  He doesn't trade because he probably cannot make a profit.

For the longest time, I thought he answers his readers' questions, until I caught a typo in his readers' questions.  And it happened two times.  If a reader actually emails him, he should simply cut & paste over the question.  He shouldn't re-type it.  As you know very well, Armstrong has quite a lot of typos in his posts, and I'm extremely sensitive to any typos.  The typo that he made in readers' questions was fire instead of hire (or it may be the other way around).  There was absolutely NO WAY for anyone to make sense out of it EXCEPT for the person who is typing it (and made the typo).  It took me several minutes to realize that typo, to be able to proceed to understand the entire sentence.

After that, I realized that probably over 50% of the sent-in questions by readers are ALL FAKE.

As I posted in one of the earliest posts, his vice-president of Princeton Economics Institute was found guilty ALLOCATING profitable trades to his/PEI account.  Are you going to tell me that Armstrong, as SMART as he is, would know NOTHING about this stealing under his nose??  The only guaranteed profits would be theft from customers' accounts.  And it's super easy to do.  Simply go short/long at the same time, and profits goes to yours, while losses go to customers'.

I have already given up on Armstrong, and doesn't even bother anymore to keep track, as I have seen so many failures.  What he does BEST is that at the high volatility of any markets, he will come out and make the swing, and either scare you, or say "I told you so".  Because of that, reading such posts from him actually will cause you to lose money most of the time, because it's at the peak of the emotion, and you simply follow him and panic.  So I refrain from reading him now, realizing what he is doing, and what the effects are on me.

I checked out what he kept claiming about Barron's post on his stock market forecast back in about 2011.  The only thing that I could find is that he said stock market will go up long term.  There was NOTHING else or specific that he said.  DUD!  I don't need anyone to tell me that.  Yet, he kept taking credit for forecasting this current rise of stock market.

I also realize what his "business model" is all about.  Price it super-high, and make it seems to be valuable due to its price.  And there is ALWAYS some takers who will try.  It's like the internet ads.  I don't click on ANY, but because of the huge number of people, someone is bound to click OR mis-click on the ads.  And same for institutional services.  There will ALWAYS be some institutions who want to give it a try.

ALL of his reports that I bought are 97% history, which you canNOT argue with him, since they're historical facts, and then 3% ambiguous forecasts, which can be either way.  Darn, the war cycle is ONLY 25 years, AND he said from year N to year N+7, with rising intensity.  DARN, that's MORE than 25% of the cycle length.  You just need some headline in that 25% of the cycle length to hit, and of course, he is going to tell you that "see, I said so".  How about some more specific forecast?

At the end of days, it's all the same.  You cannot make any real profits out of it.  I can also forecast CORRECTLY on earthquake too, if I keep saying that the intensity is picking up and picking up, especially with California haven't been hit with a BIG ONE for so many years now.  If I simply make such forecast towards the tail end of either earthquake, or the 30+ years of the bull market in bonds, and I keep throwing my darts at target every year, but change what I say if it doesn't happen, then I will for sure hit the JACKPOT sooner or later.

If you don't believe me that BAR HEIGHT is the PRICE (as he said in an email), then please tell WHAT in the hell should be IN the forecast array.  The two most important things about ANY markets are PRICE and VOLUME.  And he PUT that thing in the FIRST ROW.  It's got to be important to be put in the first ROW.  So if he is not telling you about the price, then that's the volume?  Well, it's not volatility, since he already has another row for that.  Tell me what it can be.  Or is that just garbage, something that you shouldn't know about, and so that you don't need to pay attention to?

Anyway, I wanted to make a website, documenting every little details on Armstrong, but I have been just too busy.

[MA_talk]

Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.

[THX 1138]

For the longest time, I thought he answers his readers' questions, until I caught a typo in his readers' questions.  And it happened two times.  If a reader actually emails him, he should simply cut & paste over the question.  He shouldn't re-type it.  As you know very well, Armstrong has quite a lot of typos in his posts, and I'm extremely sensitive to any typos.  The typo that he made in readers' questions was fire instead of hire (or it may be the other way around).  There was absolutely NO WAY for anyone to make sense out of it EXCEPT for the person who is typing it (and made the typo).  It took me several minutes to realize that typo, to be able to proceed to understand the entire sentence.

After that, I realized that probably over 50% of the sent-in questions by readers are ALL FAKE.

Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.

Fascinating stuff. Must have been rather a shock for you to reveal these, shall we say, "inconsistencies" after following his work for all this time.

I've been reading his blog for over four years and these revelations really leave a sour taste. At times I had the vague impression of repeated similar sentence contruction in questions, but not sufficiently so to make me doubt their veracity.

So in the light of what you've discovered, do you see any value at all now in the ECM, or anything he writes?

EDIT:
Have the posts with the "hire" and "fire" typos been edited by Armstrong since you discovered them? And if so, I wonder if the originals might be on Wayback Machine - though I imagine you would already have tried this.

[magnat7691]

It is always useful to re-read the classics of economic analysis. Without an understanding of the basics of economics, it is not possible to become a professional trader.