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Author Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion  (Read 573648 times)
STT
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August 20, 2018, 06:59:11 AM
 #4441

ofc i told roach yrs ago that when btc beats gold price it will be for long term instead he sold at $600.

yesterday the selloff in pms lined up with rise in crypto. This is ideal money at work.

Long term its efficiency which will grant gold or BTC the higher price but it cant be said easily as the Bitcoin protocol can be changed for some efficient use.   At present BTC is too expensive in its costs I think. 

Stronger dollar in 2018 has hurt gold and BTC also I think, both seem well contained and out of favour.  The dollar declined for most of 2017 and I think was part of the story for the large rise in Bitcoin and its momentum to end the year so well.   It could do this again but right now Dollar is still climbing while appearing strong, I'm not sure I can be bullish BTC until USD does crest expectations and start a negative trend again. 

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August 20, 2018, 12:32:15 PM
 #4442

Socrates' technical analysis aims to be objective. As for inputs, a database of historical patterns for the sake of pattern recognition allows it to see similar psychology in the past and match it. Yes, they may buy back because of fundamentals, and if there is enough buying, it would reflect in the chart and show that the price is going somewhere. It may even elect a Reversal and change into an uptrend.

People are selling to bank it. That's why the price went down. Also note that the vast majority of people still measure the value Bitcoin in USD. BTC went as high as it did due to the Chinese using it to transfer wealth.     
     
Technical resistance for now for the dollar lies at about 99-100, then 103.82. If we really are getting a big dollar rally as Armstrong says, expect it to punch through those levels. I agree that dollar would need to weaken to strengthen Bitcoin.
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August 20, 2018, 04:37:38 PM
 #4443

We also have a turning point this week, ideally making a high on Monday, Wednesday, or Friday, into a few more weeks of choppiness.
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August 21, 2018, 02:02:12 AM
 #4444

ofc i told roach yrs ago that when btc beats gold price it will be for long term instead he sold at $600.

yesterday the selloff in pms lined up with rise in crypto. This is ideal money at work.

Long term its efficiency which will grant gold or BTC the higher price but it cant be said easily as the Bitcoin protocol can be changed for some efficient use.   At present BTC is too expensive in its costs I think. 

Stronger dollar in 2018 has hurt gold and BTC also I think, both seem well contained and out of favour.  The dollar declined for most of 2017 and I think was part of the story for the large rise in Bitcoin and its momentum to end the year so well.   It could do this again but right now Dollar is still climbing while appearing strong, I'm not sure I can be bullish BTC until USD does crest expectations and start a negative trend again. 
due to ideal money bitcoin cannot be changed.. you have to work around it while preserving security for the usecase.

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August 21, 2018, 02:48:29 AM
 #4445

You can't just do Technical and/or Fundamental analysis. If you understand how the world works, another market can affect the market you are analyzing. So your analysis even though it's correct, will be affected by an outside force sooner or later. You just need to keep that in mind, and never marry your trade. I don't have any answers, I just keep eyes out and see what's happening and follow people to see if they're right or not and ignore those that's wrong, and keep following those that's more right.
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August 21, 2018, 07:27:32 PM
 #4446

STT, Shelby wanted me to ask you to do some reading because he strongly disagrees with you about gold:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4920367.msg44422077#msg44422077
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August 22, 2018, 12:18:40 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #4447

STT, Shelby wanted me to ask you to do some reading because he strongly disagrees with you about gold:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4920367.msg44422077#msg44422077


Very solid points!!!

Gold and Silver's potential to be a viable medimum of exchange, is only decreasing as the time goes by. This also has an effect on its use as a store of value, as the value will continue to go down.

Now, if society were to completely fall apart, to the point that government has little control of a few select cities, and almost zero control outside of them, sure, gold and silver would become more relevant, but not by a whole hell of a lot, and the gap in value between gold/silver and crypto would increase exponentially in such a scenario.

So then in what conditions would gold/silver be a good choice?

Now that crypto is here, I would think everyone that has even a limited grasp on the dynamics of crypto, would see this as a no brainer?

Im really strugging to see where Im wrong here? Especially after reading Shelbys linked post. Whats the argument after reading that?

Im not trying to be a smartass when I say, that Im surprised that people think that gold/silver would even compare to cryptos potential in any case!

Many thought silver would take off because of its use in industry, but we see what we got from that.

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August 22, 2018, 03:11:55 PM
 #4448

You can't just do Technical and/or Fundamental analysis. If you understand how the world works, another market can affect the market you are analyzing. So your analysis even though it's correct, will be affected by an outside force sooner or later. You just need to keep that in mind, and never marry your trade. I don't have any answers, I just keep eyes out and see what's happening and follow people to see if they're right or not and ignore those that's wrong, and keep following those that's more right.

Socrates purports to correlate the world and generating outputs based on that. Your method is correct imo though.
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August 23, 2018, 10:49:21 PM
 #4449



So then in what conditions would gold/silver be a good choice?

Now that crypto is here, I would think everyone that has even a limited grasp on the dynamics of crypto, would see this as a no brainer?

Im really strugging to see where Im wrong here? Especially after reading Shelbys linked post. Whats the argument after reading that?

Im not trying to be a smartass when I say, that Im surprised that people think that gold/silver would even compare to cryptos potential in any case!

Many thought silver would take off because of its use in industry, but we see what we got from that.

The case for either metal is quite simple, they require no maintenance to continue in value.   Where as BTC has a network that must be maintained,  I dont especially see the two standards of metal and electronic transfer as being in competition.   If BTC achieves qualities gold will never have then they can both appreciate at the same time.    
Also for gold there is qualities it has that are not replaced by the existence of BTC.   It is a unique element, there is no immediate argument between the two as they do different things, I see both retaining value going foward.  The main issue is that neither is being used commonly.

When US dollar standard fails as it appears it must for the world to carry on untroubled then I would never assume the USD will fall perfectly intact never a flaw until it hits the ground completely unused.    Whats far more likely is the global reserve of using just one nation for world trade is fractured, the idea itself is a failure and in that process the value held by USD distributes to many different types of monetary transfer.   So we'll have alternate FIAT standards with presumably proper interest being paid, we'll have value placed in metal and commodities and we'll very likely have some value attributed to online blockchains.    There will be paper currency partially backed by gold, thats just historic reversion and it worked previously no reason to doubt it wont be tried and tested most likely working similarly in future.

 I dont believe any one standard will replace USD as a duplicate in size and form as it transacts daily right now

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August 25, 2018, 12:07:15 AM
 #4450

...

I am re-reading N N Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness.  Taleb is probably an even more influential thinker than Martin Armstrong.  The book is the one he wrote before writing his most famous book: The Black Swan.  He is the guy who made the "Black Swan" idea famous.

His main theme in the book I am reading again is that random events are MUCH more important than is generally credited, even by "experts".

Drop by my thread about Taleb's book and feel free to discuss his ideas as many of you have done re Martin Armstrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4952382.new#new


/end threadjack
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August 30, 2018, 04:08:16 PM
 #4451

Wondering if anyone was also trying to day-trade with socrates using the strategy in the guide? The prices seem to react to certain points that it mentions.
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August 30, 2018, 05:36:37 PM
 #4452

Much appreciated guys. now his blog updates make more sense (thought broad top 2015.75 was the prediction) Wink Wink
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August 30, 2018, 10:13:54 PM
 #4453

From an average guy's point of view, i really though that i would be overwhelmed by the information in this article. But it turns out that after a while i kind of begin to understand what is going on. Although not completely, but the main concept i think i grasped.

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September 02, 2018, 07:15:05 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #4454

Has anyone tried to work out whats going to happen the next few months with gold, the pound and EURUSD?
Armstrong posted the arrays of all three and I am hoping we can start a discussion about what everyones thoughts are on where price will go.

Here is my a summary and what I think will happen.

Gold elected a monthly bearish and august was a turning point with the next in November. For September there is a directional change, high volatility and a Panic cycle! so it looks like gold is in for a ride!
Also, according to the weekly turning points Socrates sometimes posts, 03-09 and 17-09 are important turning points, (I´m not sure if they are correct since they are provided sporadically) 
In any case im thinking maybe next week will be the low intra day or closing and then a big move up.

Pound is similar, elected monthly bearish and august was a turning point with October likely the next one. September is also has a directional change, high volatility and again a panic cycle! Armtsrong wrote "When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against the dollar into October". Price closed below this level so this implies there wont be a rally? will price just consolidate for now as the both the pound and the USD lose value?

And lastly the EURUSD, august was also a turning point until ideally october, september also has a small panic cycle. Armsrong also wrote that a close above the bearish monthly reversal of 1.1550 would imply a rally because there was a monthly bullish at 1.1429 which we have now elected at 1.40-1.45% away so we may have a 1% rule in play.
According to the weekly turning points 20-08 was one and the next is 03-09.
The 20-08 turning point was spot on as highest close, this week made a intraday high and closed making nice bearish pin bar.
So putting all this together I am expecting the EURUSD will move lower next week and atleast touching the elected bullish reversal at 1.1429 making a intraday or weekly low close and then turn back up the week of 10-09.

I could of course be completely wrong Smiley.

any thoughts?

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September 03, 2018, 06:06:31 PM
 #4455

Armstrong says the Monthly Bearish is at 1194 and 1271 is the Bullish. He says gold can bounce from the August low. September does not have a direction change, just volatility and panic cycle. Because August was a turning point, that means it was the low- as you said, either closing or intra. So maybe gold can be bought in September and then sold in November.     
       
I do not know much about the pound, but October is a turning point.   

Although the Euro can bounce into October as Armstrong says, he also said that there are no immediate buy signals unless it closes above 12100 that day.     
     
It's a shame so few people discuss his work. Forecasting is supposed to be the Holy Grail of finance and therefore, even if there is a small chance of it working, investigation should be pursued. Maybe the ones who believe it keep it under wraps.
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September 04, 2018, 07:20:02 AM
 #4456

Armstrong says the Monthly Bearish is at 1194 and 1271 is the Bullish. He says gold can bounce from the August low. September does not have a direction change, just volatility and panic cycle. Because August was a turning point, that means it was the low- as you said, either closing or intra. So maybe gold can be bought in September and then sold in November.     
       
I do not know much about the pound, but October is a turning point.   

Although the Euro can bounce into October as Armstrong says, he also said that there are no immediate buy signals unless it closes above 12100 that day.     
     
It's a shame so few people discuss his work. Forecasting is supposed to be the Holy Grail of finance and therefore, even if there is a small chance of it working, investigation should be pursued. Maybe the ones who believe it keep it under wraps.

Your right about the gold not having a Directional change, I was a bit to quick.
 

Anyway, why I think the EURUSD will go up is because of something Armstrong has said about the use of reversals in combination with arrays. He says you can just buy/sell the reversals but you can also trade against them when the timing is right. So say there is a turning point in the array and price just cant manage to close above the bullish reversal, this could be a good sell signal, so your selling off the bullish reversal.

Have you seen this video of Martin at a WEC https://vimeo.com/198896912? The German guy in the second half goes into some detail about how to use the arrays and reversal. He says things like, the time was up and price could not elect the bullish reversal and so it turned down.
I am going to rewatch it since its been a while, il probably get more out of it this time around.

I think your right about the believers keeping under wraps. Armstrong has even said that his clients don´t want him on Mainstream media because they want people to trade against, they want to keep him secret. Maybe there is some private forum for people to discuss his stuff and you can get invited when you go to the WEC.
Going to a WEC is definitely on my to do list btw.

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September 04, 2018, 05:46:15 PM
 #4457

I had not seen that video before. I do remember him saying something like that before though, about running out of time.
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September 04, 2018, 06:29:14 PM
 #4458

Has anyone tried to work out whats going to happen the next few months with gold, the pound and EURUSD?
Armstrong posted the arrays of all three and I am hoping we can start a discussion about what everyones thoughts are on where price will go.

Here is my a summary and what I think will happen.

Gold elected a monthly bearish and august was a turning point with the next in November. For September there is a directional change, high volatility and a Panic cycle! so it looks like gold is in for a ride!
Also, according to the weekly turning points Socrates sometimes posts, 03-09 and 17-09 are important turning points, (I´m not sure if they are correct since they are provided sporadically) 
In any case im thinking maybe next week will be the low intra day or closing and then a big move up.

Pound is similar, elected monthly bearish and august was a turning point with October likely the next one. September is also has a directional change, high volatility and again a panic cycle! Armtsrong wrote "When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against the dollar into October". Price closed below this level so this implies there wont be a rally? will price just consolidate for now as the both the pound and the USD lose value?

And lastly the EURUSD, august was also a turning point until ideally october, september also has a small panic cycle. Armsrong also wrote that a close above the bearish monthly reversal of 1.1550 would imply a rally because there was a monthly bullish at 1.1429 which we have now elected at 1.40-1.45% away so we may have a 1% rule in play.
According to the weekly turning points 20-08 was one and the next is 03-09.
The 20-08 turning point was spot on as highest close, this week made a intraday high and closed making nice bearish pin bar.
So putting all this together I am expecting the EURUSD will move lower next week and atleast touching the elected bullish reversal at 1.1429 making a intraday or weekly low close and then turn back up the week of 10-09.

I could of course be completely wrong Smiley.

any thoughts?

 I agree with everything except for the Gold turning point the one you are referring to was posted on the 20th August. This is the latest Gold Array(27th Aug) posted which points to 9/10 and not 9/3 as a turning point which lines up with the gold benchmark due the week of 9/10.

"Centering on time using the Array, prospective Weekly targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are the weeks of 8/27, 9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 9/24, 10/8, 10/15, 10/22 and 10/29. Keep in mind that each target will normally produce the opposite event except during a Cycle Inversion, which is indicated when two targets produce the same type of event. Despite everything, the primary targets are, 8/27, 9/10, 9/24, 10/15 and 10/29. The two main targets to pay attention to are Mon. Sep. 10, 2018 and Mon. Sep. 24, 2018. The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of September 10th for a turning point ahead. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 8/27 until 9/24 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 5-week period. "

"Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of June 11th at 131300 for 9 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of August 13th. "


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September 05, 2018, 03:24:58 AM
 #4459

A brief discussion of Armstrong's latest crypto-related blog post:

While he is certainly correct about the presence of thousands of coins being untenable from a human perspective, there is nothing preventing localized or private coin usage for small-scale purposes. This is especially relevant for machine-machine communication and transactions; while they would not carry much value outside of their local system, it could still be worthwhile in certain situations such as sensor networks.

I think comparing Bitcoin to silver is borderline disingenuous. The former is a technology with properties of several asset classes while silver is a physical commodity material with monetary properties, not in itself a technology. This makes me think that Bitcoin would be more inline with NASDAQ or a tech stock, and comparing those does show similarities with an accelerated time-frame in the case of Bitcoin.

The Socrates computer system has certainly been able to call the patterns, but the reasons for those patterns unfolding are not necessarily what Armstrong touts in his opinion. As he has stated so many times, human opinion cannot consistently describe markets - only an unbiased and objective computer has the potential for that. Perhaps Armstrong's perspective has been colored a bit too much by the existing paradigm of this world and led to his own bias.

There's a good take from Daniel Jeffries on people accurately forecasting the future, but in exactly the inverse to what actually happens. A quote from that post:

Quote from: Daniel Jeffries
Quote from: Clifford Stoll
Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. Baloney.
His biggest mistake is the sixth and final reason people are blind to the future. He took current inventions, air lifted them forward and imagined them as the solution to future problems. Wrong!

Jeffries also correctly points out that the most significant advance of Bitcoin is it's functional implementation of triple-entry accounting, only the third advance in accounting for all of human history.

Now read the following with that in mind:
Quote from: Martin Armstrong
BitCoin is a trading vechicle. Trade it with that in mind ONLY. It will never replace the dollar, become a reserve currency, and it will not soar to $100,000. Those who believe such nonsense will be easily separated from their money. Trade it that way.

Okay, we'll see... Roll Eyes

Bitcoin is not just a trading vehicle even if it is behaving as such right now. It is also a highly tamper-resistant sequential-ordering chain, a cryptographic registry, a programmable contract platform - and the list goes on.

That said, it certainly is not going to be a short-term process for Bitcoin to reach stratospheric levels or be established as a reserve currency; it may happen a lot sooner than many expect but it will still take years. Regardless of where it may go, the advice to never marry the trade is absolutely appropriate.
Klongkhunosi
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September 05, 2018, 09:29:23 AM
 #4460

Like Boston/NYC, too, I suppose London relies on glamour and nightlife to reel in the under-30s, who haven't really figured out the workings of the world yet. So there are some misguided young career people around; some of them will change their tune as they mature, but many will continue to work in the financial centre for years. After all, once you've settled into a career, we're talking about big salaries and a hefty mortgage to service. It's difficult breaking out of that, because it means a total lifestyle change.
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