Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[Chrystora123]

It is the best thing for the Euro we can imagine now but the pandemic has its potential to last longer. Although its possibility to last longer, next year if it will be still exist, I expect its severity will drop considerably and the world have better preparation (from today's lessons) to contain it better.

With the paid race for discovering vaccines, I will be surprised if we will have not a vaccine or drugs before the end of this year.

He said a realistic target for a vaccine would be in the 18-month range. The WHO has also said a vaccine is at least 18 months away.
“It might happen sooner but I think that’s unrealistic,” Kelvin told Global News. “18 months to two years would be really fantastic if we achieved that target.”

source: https://globalnews.ca/news/6666876/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/

I can't imagine having to wait this long to get back to betting normally.  I am curious in the future, what will happen to the German league and other major leagues around the world because according to "WHO" estimates, 18 months is a very realistic time to be able to find the vaccine.

[coinlocket$]

source: https://globalnews.ca/news/6666876/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/

I can't imagine having to wait this long to get back to betting normally.  I am curious in the future, what will happen to the German league and other major leagues around the world because according to "WHO" estimates, 18 months is a very realistic time to be able to find the vaccine.

That is for a brand new vaccine since I'm in Italy I had read a lot during these days, the best HOPE is for this one from Migal

https://www.yonkerstribune.com/2020/03/dr-itai-bloch-on-israels-covid-19-vaccine-by-marilyn-stern

TDLR, they found out that this virus is very similar to a 4 years old Aviaria Virus, they modded the vaccine and they should start trials in days.


Also, this is a different thing from the older Virus/Vaccine like Sars and Mers which is more common and a world race worth of billions trillions of $ is on.
At this point, if I can remember correctly already 30 possible vaccines are "almost ready" if they work.
The time is 1 month to 2 years for all of them, 2 in this month/April ready for humans tests.

[Koal-84]

It would be the right step to cancel the EM, it is not absolutely necessary and can easily be postponed for a year.

Should the situation not relax in a month you can actually declare the leagues in Europe to be over or you can let them play in autumn. A football game without fans is in my opinion, unnecessary!

[bullrun2024bro]

It looks like the Bundesliga might resume on April 2nd with games played behind closed doors. Let's see how everything develops. Personally I have no idea what will happen. The situation basically changes every day, but even if I prefer matches with fans, matches played behind closed doors might be the only solution for the Bundesliga for now.

Here are some quotes from todays press conference with DFL boss Christian Seifert:

Decision of the DFL's extraordinary general meetings with clubs: The Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga will be suspended until at least 2 April.

DFL boss Seifert: "The 612 Bundesliga matches a season create around 56,000 jobs. Many other jobs depend on football. I don't want to dramatize the situation, but it's clear that many jobs and the future of the clubs are at stake."

Seifert: "Games behind closed doors are the only solution in the near future. Otherwise, there will no longer be 18 or 20 professional clubs"

Seifert: "Tomorrow, UEFA will decide on Euro 2020. Then it will become clearer for us which options we still have to finish the season"

Seifert: "At the moment the situation changes every day. That makes it so difficult to talk about specific scenarios, about fixed ending or starting points. All clubs aspire to end the season somehow as legally possible and healthily justifiable"

[Rengga Jati]

The situation basically changes every day, but even if I prefer matches with fans, matches played behind closed doors might be the only solution for the Bundesliga for now.

We are in an unusual situation, it is understandable if it changes every day. Coronavirus easily spreads and infects people, they have no choice unless preventing fans/supporters to come to the stadium. It will be a disaster if they continue to provide the matches as usual. So, I also agree that it is the only solution (closed-door matches).

[Bitcoin_Arena]

It looks like the Bundesliga might resume on April 2nd with games played behind closed doors. Let's see how everything develops. Personally I have no idea what will happen. The situation basically changes every day, but even if I prefer matches with fans, matches played behind closed doors might be the only solution for the Bundesliga for now.

Very tough decisions to make right there... because this is the life of people we are talking about much as football is a form of entertainment and also a sport which involves lots of deals, contracts and money.

It would be very sad if players were forced to play behind closed doors, them a couple of the contract the virus and die. What would the federations say in defense?

[bullrun2024bro]

Not exactly related to the Bundesliga, but the German DFB team will donate about €2.5m to overcome the Covid-19 pandemic. Let's see if other Bundesliga stars follow this example and start donating some money too.

Source:

The DFB Team players will donate together a total of 2.5 million euros to help overcome the corona crisis [dfb]

[bullrun2024bro]

It looks like the Bundesliga will be suspended until April 30th. In my opinion that makes sense. No one expected the Bundesliga to continue at the beginning of April as announced earlier. Hopefully we will be able to finish the season, but everything depends on the health situation in Germany.

The DFL presidium will recommend a further suspension of the Bundesliga until at least April 30. The presidium does not want to recommend a complete cancellation of the season because "the responsibility for an industry with 56,000 direct and indirect employees is too great."

The DFL states that the goal remains to finish the season by June 30, as long as this is legally and healthily permissible.

[Indymoney]

It looks like the Bundesliga will be suspended until April 30th. In my opinion that makes sense. No one expected the Bundesliga to continue at the beginning of April as announced earlier. Hopefully we will be able to finish the season, but everything depends on the health situation in Germany.

The DFL presidium will recommend a further suspension of the Bundesliga until at least April 30. The presidium does not want to recommend a complete cancellation of the season because "the responsibility for an industry with 56,000 direct and indirect employees is too great."

The DFL states that the goal remains to finish the season by June 30, as long as this is legally and healthily permissible.

Health and safety is first priority for all so its better may be this will extented because still we are in worst not looking better for few next weeks but hopefully things could be better for all in near future and we will be able to have this all as normal mode in near future becasue missing this all very seriously now.

[bullrun2024bro]

Guys this thread is about the German Bundesliga and is not another Covid-19 thread. If you wan't to discuss about vaccines, the Iraqi Ministry of Health and other stuff, feel free to do that, but don't spam this thread. Stay on topic and talk about German football and the Bundesliga. Thank you!

[tyKiwanuka]

Looks like Bundesliga will get suspended at least until April 30th. There are 9 rounds left to be played, plus the relegation matches and the cup matches. Next season is set to start July 31st for 2. Bundesliga and August 21st for Bundesliga. Counting from May on, this is 15 weeks until the new season starts for 2. Bundesliga. The players should be well rested, so no problem with playing double fixture weeks until the end of the season.

For 2. Bundesliga the regular season could be finished by the end of May then. There are no teams left in cup matches from this league, so each team has two months of preparation until the new season starts (apart from the team that plays relegation to Bundesliga).

For Bundesliga, it's a little bit more difficult, since you have the cup matches and EL/CL, but the new season starts 3 weeks later. So this should be fine as well; all competitions should be finished by middle/end of June.

If, which is quite possible, suspension is extended for more weeks, there is still the possibility to postpone the start of next season into September/October and get rid of the winter break, which will save another 4 weeks.

And if nothing helps, I could think of a 17-round-season for 2020/2021, which will start end of the year then.

[Naida_BR]

Looks like Bundesliga will get suspended at least until April 30th. There are 9 rounds left to be played, plus the relegation matches and the cup matches. Next season is set to start July 31st for 2. Bundesliga and August 21st for Bundesliga. Counting from May on, this is 15 weeks until the new season starts for 2. Bundesliga. The players should be well rested, so no problem with playing double fixture weeks until the end of the season.

For 2. Bundesliga the regular season could be finished by the end of May then. There are no teams left in cup matches from this league, so each team has two months of preparation until the new season starts (apart from the team that plays relegation to Bundesliga).

For Bundesliga, it's a little bit more difficult, since you have the cup matches and EL/CL, but the new season starts 3 weeks later. So this should be fine as well; all competitions should be finished by middle/end of June.

If, which is quite possible, suspension is extended for more weeks, there is still the possibility to postpone the start of next season into September/October and get rid of the winter break, which will save another 4 weeks.

And if nothing helps, I could think of a 17-round-season for 2020/2021, which will start end of the year then.

April 30th is the optimistic scenario. But see what is going on in Europe.
Spanish pandemic is now rampant. La Liga was discussed to start in the end of April as well but I don't think that this is going to happen. Germany and Bundesliga are going to be another station of the virus and will possibly affect the restart of the league

[tbct_mt2]

Looks like Bundesliga will get suspended at least until April 30th. There are 9 rounds left to be played, plus the relegation matches and the cup matches. Next season is set to start July 31st for 2. Bundesliga and August 21st for Bundesliga. Counting from May on, this is 15 weeks until the new season starts for 2. Bundesliga. The players should be well rested, so no problem with playing double fixture weeks until the end of the season.

For 2. Bundesliga the regular season could be finished by the end of May then. There are no teams left in cup matches from this league, so each team has two months of preparation until the new season starts (apart from the team that plays relegation to Bundesliga).

For Bundesliga, it's a little bit more difficult, since you have the cup matches and EL/CL, but the new season starts 3 weeks later. So this should be fine as well; all competitions should be finished by middle/end of June.

If, which is quite possible, suspension is extended for more weeks, there is still the possibility to postpone the start of next season into September/October and get rid of the winter break, which will save another 4 weeks.

And if nothing helps, I could think of a 17-round-season for 2020/2021, which will start end of the year then.

All of those plans are too far, for now, when the epidemic in Germany and the pandemic on the globle have still been very seriously.

All of those solutions are only potential ones and they totally depends on how the epidemic in Germany will go next weeks. The massive testing campaign in Germany help to temporarily reduce the CFR (case fatality ratio) at the nation, like what we see in South Korea but over time the total number of death tolls will increase. The lower CFR figure (compares to figures of Italy or Spain) makes us feel Germany is safer than the rest nations in Europe but it might be wrong. I have a belief that the epidemic in Germany will end sooner and that will help both Bundesliga and 2 (even months). Bundesliga to finish the season with a little delay. Nevertheless, I am not sure about the severity of death toll at the end in the nation.

[tyKiwanuka]

All of those plans are too far, for now, when the epidemic in Germany and the pandemic on the globle have still been very seriously.
(...)
All of those solutions are only potential ones and they totally depends on how the epidemic in Germany will go next weeks.

I am pretty sure, we will see Bundesliga come May again, but behind closed doors. There are more and more people demanding to relax the curfew and at some point authorities have to give in. Some Bundesliga teams train again in small groups and the infected german players are healed. These are all young people (some coaches/staff are older) and younger people will be allowed to go out again after Easter.

Only scenarios, where I don't see Bundesliga starting in May again are a) if the situation in Germany gets really bad or b) if the situation in China worsens again after they are slowly re-starting their economy (which is happening right now).

[Juggy777]

Looks like Bundesliga will get suspended at least until April 30th. There are 9 rounds left to be played, plus the relegation matches and the cup matches. Next season is set to start July 31st for 2. Bundesliga and August 21st for Bundesliga. Counting from May on, this is 15 weeks until the new season starts for 2. Bundesliga. The players should be well rested, so no problem with playing double fixture weeks until the end of the season.

For 2. Bundesliga the regular season could be finished by the end of May then. There are no teams left in cup matches from this league, so each team has two months of preparation until the new season starts (apart from the team that plays relegation to Bundesliga).

For Bundesliga, it's a little bit more difficult, since you have the cup matches and EL/CL, but the new season starts 3 weeks later. So this should be fine as well; all competitions should be finished by middle/end of June.

If, which is quite possible, suspension is extended for more weeks, there is still the possibility to postpone the start of next season into September/October and get rid of the winter break, which will save another 4 weeks.

And if nothing helps, I could think of a 17-round-season for 2020/2021, which will start end of the year then.

April 30th is the optimistic scenario. But see what is going on in Europe.
Spanish pandemic is now rampant. La Liga was discussed to start in the end of April as well but I don't think that this is going to happen. Germany and Bundesliga are going to be another station of the virus and will possibly affect the restart of the league

All of those plans are too far, for now, when the epidemic in Germany and the pandemic on the globle have still been very seriously.

All of those solutions are only potential ones and they totally depends on how the epidemic in Germany will go next weeks. The massive testing campaign in Germany help to temporarily reduce the CFR (case fatality ratio) at the nation, like what we see in South Korea but over time the total number of death tolls will increase. The lower CFR figure (compares to figures of Italy or Spain) makes us feel Germany is safer than the rest nations in Europe but it might be wrong. I have a belief that the epidemic in Germany will end sooner and that will help both Bundesliga and 2 (even months). Bundesliga to finish the season with a little delay. Nevertheless, I am not sure about the severity of death toll at the end in the nation.

I am pretty sure, we will see Bundesliga come May again, but behind closed doors. There are more and more people demanding to relax the curfew and at some point authorities have to give in. Some Bundesliga teams train again in small groups and the infected german players are healed. These are all young people (some coaches/staff are older) and younger people will be allowed to go out again after Easter.

Only scenarios, where I don't see Bundesliga starting in May again are a) if the situation in Germany gets really bad or b) if the situation in China worsens again after they are slowly re-starting their economy (which is happening right now).

There’re so many scenarios listed out here and no one here knows which will pan out, but I’m sincerely hoping that this virus disappears for good and we can complete this season. Also It’ll be horrible if this season is declared null and void, because in my personal opinion it was by far one of the most entertaining season I have seen in the German league and I strongly felt that Bayern would loose the title.

[bullrun2024bro]

Some interesting stats on the Bayern goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who just turned 34. Even though he's older, he's still one of the best goalkeepers in the world. In my opinion, he is still by far the best one we got in the German Bundesliga.

Since joining Bayern in 2011, Manuel Neuer has the best passing accuracy among all goalkeepers in the Bundesliga (82%) [Opta]

Source: https://twitter.com/iMiaSanMia/status/1243535183862812672

[tyKiwanuka]

In my opinion, he is still by far the best one we got in the German Bundesliga.

All things considered, he certainly is. Otoh there is not a lot of great goalkeepers in Bundesliga nowadays, so rather easy for a world class keeper like him to win that category by miles. I am waiting for Leipzig to make some move to sign a better goalkeeper, since I don't rate Gulacsi that high and money is no problem for them. His contract was extended to 2023, but well, a contract is just a contract. From the so called top-keepers in Bundesliga I think Sommer is easily the worst, but I can't back it up with stats. He just lacks presence in the box imo and is a bit short too (only 1.83m).
I like that Pavlenka guy from Bremen and think he will get signed by some good team, if Bremen relegates (even if not, he might be gone).

That passing accuracy stat is funny and a bit meaningless. Most teams don't press against Bayern, so Neuer is doing a lot of short passes, while the other keepers have to go for the long ball more often than not. But Neuer is of course a very good footballer, so even if the opponents were pressing more, he would probably lead that statistic.

Germany always had multiple world class keepers; thats one position they were never short of:

Sepp Maier
Toni Schumacher
Bodo Illgner
Oliver Kahn
Jens Lehmann
Manuel Neuer

Those were the main keepers for german NT in the last 50+ years. Impressive list. Lehmann was probably the worst of those and he had quite a career too.

[cygan]

and please don't forget Marc-André ter Stegen (fc barcelona)
in my opinion also a very good goalkeeper who can also do a lot with the ball on his foot 

[bullrun2024bro]

Germany always had multiple world class keepers; thats one position they were never short of:

Sepp Maier
Toni Schumacher
Bodo Illgner
Oliver Kahn
Jens Lehmann
Manuel Neuer

Those were the main keepers for german NT in the last 50+ years. Impressive list. Lehmann was probably the worst of those and he had quite a career too.

Yep, you are right. Lehmann was by far the worst of the ones you mentioned. Nevertheless he made it to Dortmund and Arsenal, that's okay I guess. My top three from your list above would be:

1. Manuel Neuer - 2. Oliver Kahn - 3. Sepp Maier

But of course everyone rates this differently. It's also pretty hard to compare a goalkeeper who plays today with a goalkeeper who played 40 years ago. Football itself has evolved and you play a totally different style nowadays.

and please don't forget Marc-André ter Stegen (fc barcelona)
in my opinion also a very good goalkeeper who can also do a lot with the ball on his foot 

But can he do this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOL3A9Y_e0M 

[tyKiwanuka]

Some I-am-so-bored-stats for home wins in 2019/2020 season, which shows the good work the bookmakers (or their computers) are doing and why it is so hard to make money pre-match in big leagues like Bundesliga:

• 224 matches were played in Bundesliga so far.
• We saw 97 (43.30%) home wins and 127 times (56.70%) the home team failed to win.
• Converting the percentages into odds, this would give us 2.30 for home win and 1.76 for X2, if there was no juice.

Now checking the odds at Oddsportal, the average winning odds for the home teams were 2.20. Just betting blindly on home win for every match with your favourite bookmaker, will result in a loss - vice versa for blindly betting on X2; you have to reduce the juice. By shopping for odds, you can nearly bet without juice and more or less easily get the 2.30/1.76 on average to break even. Well, then you broke even, which is quite an accomplishment in itself already, but of course we want to make money and not just exchange it back and forth with various bookmakers.

Forget about diving deep into major stats, H2H, injuries, suspensions etc., these things are all already priced in and you won't beat the market like that. You need to go the extra mile. More sophisticated computer-based statistical analyses combined with inside information. Now this is pretty hard to achieve for average Joe's (like me), so no option for 99,99% of punters.

The only way to do more than break-even is to study the game and the teams and bet inplay. Live markets, even in the biggest leagues, are still very imperfect imo. There is so many variables and dynamics, which on top change all the time during the 90 minutes, that no bookmaker with their computer or even the most well-equipped shark can be that good with compiling their odds like they are able to do pre-match, where all factors are more or less fixed.

Thoughts ?