🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

[JackpotRacer]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

well said and I would like to point to a very nice read  "the Law of large numbers"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

[DebitMe]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

[Helix61be]

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume.  I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

Nothing if you don't want a calculation that needs years upon years and even with that time you still got all the variables

For anyone that want to know 1 month it turned 16,7% 2nd month it was 10,5%, 3rd month it was maybe 0-2%

[dooglus]

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

No, it's just wrong. He's saying you can divide the returns the bankroll should earn over a year by the bankroll amount to get an estimate of your expected earnings on an annual percentage basis.

Suppose the bankroll is 2000 BTC and the expected earnings are 1000 BTC per year. Using QS's formula that gives 1000/2000 = 0.5 as his annual percentage expected earnings whereas in reality earning 1000 from 2000 is more like 50%. I think he forgot a factor of 100 somewhere.

[dooglus]

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.

That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.

[Helix61be]

And then the bankroll More then doubles in a few months and the ammount waggered goes down.
I get the preddiction but i think it's just An average that's all

[Quickseller]

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

No, it's just wrong. He's saying you can divide the returns the bankroll should earn over a year by the bankroll amount to get an estimate of your expected earnings on an annual percentage basis.

Suppose the bankroll is 2000 BTC and the expected earnings are 1000 BTC per year. Using QS's formula that gives 1000/2000 = 0.5 as his annual percentage expected earnings whereas in reality earning 1000 from 2000 is more like 50%. I think he forgot a factor of 100 somewhere.

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

100 * 1.825 is 182.5. 182.5 divided by the 100 bankroll is 1.825 which expressed as a percentage is 182.5%.

All of the above assumes 100% "luck", no variance, and earnings being immidiatly withdrawn.

My statement might have been poorly worded.

[RHavar]

That is called short term variance.  In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit.  Its just math and you can't argue with that.  2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough.  I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

Nope. It might be maths, but it's wrong. Over a long or infinite period of time, MP investors are *not* guaranteed to be an expected profit.

Case to consider: Imagine a casino that has a 1% house edge, but risks 99.99% of it's bankroll each bet. Over an long enough period of time, how much money do you think the casino will have?  (Answer: It's bankroll is always going to keep getting wiped out to near zero and despite infinite amount of EV the house will never make money).

That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.

I believe that is a fallacy itself (as can seen by this thread). It only holds under a set of preconditions that MP doesn't currently satisfy.

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

Isn't this still off by 3.33x?

36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets.



On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll).
 

tldr;  Don't try to predict how much you'll make  

[Quickseller]

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

Isn't this still off by 3.33x?

36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets.

I was assuming that the HE was 0.5% after all the commissions are paid for.

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.

On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll).

There is also the possibility that the owner of the casino is able to get betting volume growth to be greater then bankroll volume to be greater then bankroll growth, which would have the opposite effect as the above. IDK if there are any reliable stats/theories regarding what to expect over the long run about bankroll growth verses betting growth.
 

tldr;  Don't try to predict how much you'll make 

I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

[RHavar]

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.

It used to be, but it's now 70% (50% for app, 20% for MP)

I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

Fair enough. What I would do is to try estimate the EV of the investment as a whole (which is a total crap shoot that involves pulling numbers from your ass for things like counter-party risk) and then use that to determine how much I should risk in the investment itself (which itself uses the kelly <3). But lets say I guestimated the total EV of investing in MP at 1 BTC for the year, I would never actually personally "expect" to make that because there's so many variables (I could easily lose the entire investment, or make double it)

[ranlo]

My understanding is (this may be incorrect), that MP will take 1/2 of the HE between their own commission and the app owner commission, and 1% HE seems to be pretty standard to me.

It used to be, but it's now 70% (50% for app, 20% for MP)

I would disagree with this. A bankroll investor will need to risk the possibility that a casino operator will run away will the coins in the bankroll, that the seeds will somehow leak, allowing someone to cheat, and drain ~the entire bankroll, that the coins are otherwise stolen from the casino and the operator cannot afford to cover the cost of the theft, among other possible risks. In order to measure how appropriate it is to take these risks, a potential bankroll investor will need to know how much they should expect to earn by taking these risks.

There are other investments that a potential bankroll investor can make (eg investing in a company, lending for margin loans on an exchange, investing in the stock market), and an investor should invest his money in what he believes have the best risk/reward proposition.

Fair enough. What I would do is to try estimate the EV of the investment as a whole (which is a total crap shoot that involves pulling numbers from your ass for things like counter-party risk) and then use that to determine how much I should risk in the investment itself (which itself uses the kelly <3). But lets say I guestimated the total EV of investing in MP at 1 BTC for the year, I would never actually personally "expect" to make that because there's so many variables (I could easily lose the entire investment, or make double it)

People also need to take into consideration divestment/investment betting as well. There are so many variables. One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.

[Deuceisgood]

I was invested in the MP bankroll from late April until mid-May, when I withdrew to Bitfinex in order to short bitcoin around $680. (Due to luck more than anything, my coin was out of BFX at the time of hack - this post isn't about the BFX hack per se.) I have one suggestion to make, and one question to ask:

Suggestion A: MP needs an app or other function to allow investors & gamblers opportunity to hedge and/or leverage their btc. I wouldn't have withdrawn my btc at that time if I could have hedged/shorted within the MP domain. (I'm sharing this because almost certainly I was not the only MP user who had this experience.) When MP has a hedging function, maybe a CFD app, then MP will be significantly 'stickier' for users. If MP links up with Augur when it launches, that would be HUGE. Alternately I hope MP finds an app that has btc CFDs. Throw in some equity indices and commodities, and that would be over the top. It will require a different revenue/profit model (not 'provably fair'), but certainly something can be worked out? The poker site 'Bitlegit' wasn't provably fair, so it appears MP is ready to go that route.

Question B: In that ~2 month window roughly leading up to the DDOS attack and extended downtime the bankroll was booking profits on the order of 0.50% per day. I tracked my returns daily and on June 15 my daily CAGR (constant average growth rate) was running 0.56%. Yes, that is over 600% per annum. According to my hand-recorded stats, there was one 53-day stretch during which only 6 days saw a loss.

Since returning to operations following the DDOS bankroll returns have been decidedly negative. I haven't been keeping exact figures but we can see that investor profits have fallen from about 434 btc in mid-July to a current 368 btc.

Are the DDOS attack and the subsequent operating recovery related in some way to the dramatic fall in bankroll returns? Have there been any changes since the DDOS/server migration that would alter expected bankroll returns?

[RHavar]

One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.

Yeah, I think you should definitely do it. I'd probably make it monthly, as updating it every week will get exhausting and monthly will be smoother.

Question B: In that ~2 month window roughly leading up to the DDOS attack and extended downtime the bankroll was booking profits on the order of 0.50% per day. I tracked my returns daily and on June 15 my daily CAGR (constant average growth rate) was running 0.56%. Yes, that is over 600% per annum. According to my hand-recorded stats, there was one 53-day stretch during which only 6 days saw a loss.

Since returning to operations following the DDOS bankroll returns have been decidedly negative. I haven't been keeping exact figures but we can see that investor profits have fallen from about 434 btc in mid-July to a current 368 btc.

Are the DDOS attack and the subsequent operating recovery related in some way to the dramatic fall in bankroll returns? Have there been any changes since the DDOS/server migration that would alter expected bankroll returns?

Variance. It's a bitch. No matter how much you understand how much of a bitch variance is, it'll always surprise you. (It's a bit like software estimates, even if you know they're always off they'll still always be off).

As an example, this is the profit from ~4 months of the site I run:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/o5m3b06g.png

Looks pretty stable, eh? Well, with the same amount of volume and absolutely no changes last year I had a **four** month period in which the site hadn't made any. At one point I started to seriously think someone had discovered the server seed and was subtly siphoning off all the profits, so the site neither made nor lost money. (but nah, was just variance and some aggressive loss chasers)


--

Also to add to that, the style of play by the whales on the site will make a massive difference. MP has been extremely lucky to have some whales who just seem to deposit and then grind the money away, and then repeat -- which is why it had some pretty steady reliable growth. But if your whales are loss chasers / martingalers, you'll notice a pattern more like one from betking:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/a6x747dr.png

Reverse martingalers (or people who like to gamble hard with their profits) will tend to create an inverse looking chart  (steady gains, then big unexpected drops) etc.

[paying_mlm]

NOTE:   Re-posting to moneypot thread to get more exposure...

Hello,

I appreciate any help/guidance from members in following area:

1.  How to implement progressive jackpot using moneypot API (just like bit-exo.com)
2.  How to raise house edge to more than 1% but pass on only 1% house edge to moneypot api?  Additional house edge will be used to fund jackpot and other freebies.
3.  How does max-subsidy parameter of bets endpoint of moneypot api work?
from moneypot api docs:
max_subsidy (optional, float) a value (in satoshis) of the most your app is willing to pay for this bet to be placed. This money is given to investors, from your app, when otherwise the bet would be too unattractive for investors to accept. We minimize the total subsidy given so his functions a pure limit. This defaults to 0, and is only settable in the confidential flow. It can also be set to a negative number, if you want the bet to be rejected unless you make a certain amount of profit.

4.  Can I take hash from moneypot api today and use it (or place a bet against) after two days or so?  Normally, what is validity period for such server seed hashes?

PS:  I know that the moneypot support/admin team is the best resource for my queries, and I am in contact with them and I am getting all the help and support they can provide.  This post is to widen my knowledge and get other perspective/view on the subject

Thank you in advance for any help/guidance you may provide.

[ranlo]

NOTE:   Re-posting to moneypot thread to get more exposure...

Hello,

I appreciate any help/guidance from members in following area:

1.  How to implement progressive jackpot using moneypot API (just like bit-exo.com)
2.  How to raise house edge to more than 1% but pass on only 1% house edge to moneypot api?  Additional house edge will be used to fund jackpot and other freebies.
3.  How does max-subsidy parameter of bets endpoint of moneypot api work?
from moneypot api docs:
max_subsidy (optional, float) a value (in satoshis) of the most your app is willing to pay for this bet to be placed. This money is given to investors, from your app, when otherwise the bet would be too unattractive for investors to accept. We minimize the total subsidy given so his functions a pure limit. This defaults to 0, and is only settable in the confidential flow. It can also be set to a negative number, if you want the bet to be rejected unless you make a certain amount of profit.

4.  Can I take hash from moneypot api today and use it (or place a bet against) after two days or so?  Normally, what is validity period for such server seed hashes?

PS:  I know that the moneypot support/admin team is the best resource for my queries, and I am in contact with them and I am getting all the help and support they can provide.  This post is to widen my knowledge and get other perspective/view on the subject

Thank you in advance for any help/guidance you may provide.

1) pseudocode: if bet { progressiveJackpot += houseEdgeofBet*0.5*percentProfittoAllocate }
2) if houseEdge > 1% runLocal(); else sendtoMP();
3) Can't answer this one myself
4) Also can't answer. I believe as long as you're logged in and on the same app it will remain, but I'm not 100% sure on that.

[JackpotRacer]

NOTE:   Re-posting to moneypot thread to get more exposure...

Hello,

I appreciate any help/guidance from members in following area:

1.  How to implement progressive jackpot using moneypot API (just like bit-exo.com)
2.  How to raise house edge to more than 1% but pass on only 1% house edge to moneypot api?  Additional house edge will be used to fund jackpot and other freebies.
3.  How does max-subsidy parameter of bets endpoint of moneypot api work?
from moneypot api docs:
max_subsidy (optional, float) a value (in satoshis) of the most your app is willing to pay for this bet to be placed. This money is given to investors, from your app, when otherwise the bet would be too unattractive for investors to accept. We minimize the total subsidy given so his functions a pure limit. This defaults to 0, and is only settable in the confidential flow. It can also be set to a negative number, if you want the bet to be rejected unless you make a certain amount of profit.

4.  Can I take hash from moneypot api today and use it (or place a bet against) after two days or so?  Normally, what is validity period for such server seed hashes?

PS:  I know that the moneypot support/admin team is the best resource for my queries, and I am in contact with them and I am getting all the help and support they can provide.  This post is to widen my knowledge and get other perspective/view on the subject

Thank you in advance for any help/guidance you may provide.

1) pseudocode: if bet { progressiveJackpot += houseEdgeofBet*0.5*percentProfittoAllocate }
2) if houseEdge > 1% runLocal(); else sendtoMP();
3) Can't answer this one myself
4) Also can't answer. I believe as long as you're logged in and on the same app it will remain, but I'm not 100% sure on that.

is this thread now instead of the slack channel? just asking because I was send to the slack channel with my questions.

why dont you invite him to the slack channel? maybe he will get there the answers he needs because you answered actually that you dont know the answers for his questions

[Xanidas]

why increase the minimum transaction fee you will deduct on our withdrawal but still pay less than 10k sats on my transaction? not a big amount but isn't it like stealing? deducting 20k sats on our WD and you will only pay 4k sats?

[ranlo]

why increase the minimum transaction fee you will deduct on our withdrawal but still pay less than 10k sats on my transaction? not a big amount but isn't it like stealing? deducting 20k sats on our WD and you will only pay 4k sats?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1366689.msg15790842#msg15790842
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1366689.msg15791380#msg15791380