r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[hmachado]

Rub it in r0ach Awesome weekend!

ETH and THE DAO are doing fine though, even if it seems nothing will ever happen in THE DAO.

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[razen489]

When bitcoin bulls https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/bitcoin/usd
alts drop out?

[keystroke]

Rub it in r0ach Awesome weekend!

ETH and THE DAO are doing fine though, even if it seems nothing will ever happen in THE DAO.

Pretty bizarre they are still doing OK. The main thing ETH had going for it were illusions of replacing bitcoin.

[Spoetnik]

Fuck yeah man !

I TOLD YOU SO LIPPY RETARDS !

I AM RIGHT.

I AM ALWAYS RIGHT

..and so is roach

[sadasa]

I hope the price of some coins drop to a good price level so that I can buy more. We need efforts from some forum members.

[freshman777]

I TOLD YOU

No you didn't.
Can you quote a post of yours where you did, mark your predictions in bold?

[Spoetnik]

I TOLD YOU

No you didn't.
Can you quote a post of yours where you did, mark your predictions in bold?

Should not be hard to find.. you do the work.
I created a Bitcointalk search plugin that is not hard to find or use the search box

PS:
Enjoy your negative rating.. don't worry i negged your other ETH Shill scam account too LOL

[iamnotback]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/nigel-farage-on-the-future-of-immigration-post-brexit/

The majority of the money had bet on a failure of the BREXIT:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/brexit-sterling-euro/

Unless TPTB somehow steal this election or do some other actions to nullify a "Leave" result (which would also drive volatility/uncertainty crazy), the "Leave" vote should cause volatility/uncertainty to skyrocket. So instead of getting a sustained deadcat rally in the Euro up to 1.25 which I expected if BREXIT failed, we could instead see the Euro collapse soon and the dollar rally blast off sooner. This might also drive private (safe haven) assets up sooner (e.g. US stocks, gold, and BTC), but if this reversal is too precipitous then it could also cause a liquidity crunch which might cause a selloff in liquid assets such as gold and BTC.

Note I've read that the UK leaving will take a minimum of 2 years and they have to negotiate with the EU to leave, which could take much longer than 2 years. So this could get very politically messy. Volatility/uncertainty appears to be on the verge of skyrocketing.

Gold moved back up when the Fed didn't raise rates. BTC seems to be on a vertical rise after finally completing a U bottom (which was my alternative scenario to a topping < $500 and continued decline to a lower low) won what appears to be an attempt to retest $1200, which normally one would expect a 33 - 67% pullback from such a vertical move out of a long-winded U bottom. The halving may be a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Perhaps the coming SegWit hard fork later this year is also inspiring some confidence in Bitcoin being able get forward movement on scaling transaction rate and towards Lightning Networks for instant transactions (btw all of that I think is flawed and won't scale to millions of users any time soon so I'd expect an exhale as the reality of those Rube Goldberg designs come to light). Btw, I am very happy about BTC moving up so much as it means a lot more wealth and interest in altcoins since as you know I am working on an altcoin.

Gold and BTC have always been out-of-phase, so gold had its rally to $1300 first then dumped. BTC is having its rally, and then I expect a dump once it is done.

The question is what impact will the BREXIT have on Fed interest rates and the movement of international capital. I think it going to cause immediately a strong dollar, which will send gold down. I think BTC will follow gold down but out-of-phase later (let's say a drop from $1200 to $800 or $400).

These smaller markets such as gold and BTC are more dependent on the dollar strength and interest rates because they are still for the moment primarily liquidity driven markets and not yet safe haven stampede driven markets. Eventually dollar, US stocks, gold, and BTC will all align as safe haven private assets as the world comes to realization of severity of the sovereign debt implosion ahead. But as this gathers inertia in the initial stages, then capital is still likely to be conservative and choose the dollar and then US stocks. Will the Fed view this influx of capital as an opportunity to unload its balance sheet and restore interest rates or continue to keep rates low to help Europe and China?

If the money initially moving into the dollar is into US Treasury bonds, the Fed might view raising interest rates as a way to deflect that capital since rising interest rates make bond investments loose value. Remember it is reverse of the way most people think. They think higher interest rates mean more yield (true), but if you buy a bond at 0.5% rate and the rate rises to 1%, then you sell the bond for less than you paid for it.

So a rush of conservative big money capital into the dollar is likely to be into US Treasuries for the last big hooray for US sovereign bonds, causing the Fed to finally start signaling rising rates to drive that capital out of bonds and  the dollar, hoping this will sustain the Euro. But instead, that will drive the money crazy (not conservative) and into US stocks.

So this is why I am saying we can initially get a contagion that takes gold and BTC down. Maybe not. But maybe yes.

So OROBTC, in answer to your question, yes I would sell BTC at the peak of this move. Keep an eye on it. Looks like it can move higher still perhaps to $1200. The halving has not yet occurred. Then I would stay in dollars until gold has bottomed. Then repurchase gold and/or crypto-currencies on their pull backs.

But if you observe that the BREXIT instead causes a sustained up move into gold and BTC, with gold moving well above $1300s, then I'd presume I was wrong and the bottom in gold is behind us.

P.S. The BREXIT is one of those black swans that can't be predicted with cycles. The conflagration of the contagion in Europe in general is following cycles of nation building and collapse. The UK has always maintained an exceptional position in the EU and it may pull away for one last deadcat bounce on the former British Empire. The UK would be exception to the organism in the Petri dish that can't escape from its predicament (as I had written with "Understand Everything Fundamentally" where I predicted in 2010 that EU would not tear apart), because the UK has only had one foot in the EU and the other foot outside. The other EU nations are unlikely to be able to exit. The EU Troika will become much more ruthless now, so as to make sure the UK lead does not cause others to vote to leave. I think this BREXIT will begin the hot wars in Europe. TPTB use war when necessary when there is no other option. We are entering a very dangerous phase now.

Edit: appears that an exodus from ETH that is probably going to soon be a stampede, might be contributing to the BTC rise?

[iamnotback]

Edit: appears that an exodus from ETH that is probably going to soon be a stampede, might be contributing to the BTC rise?

...

tabnloz, if the British pound skyrockets w.r.t. to the Euro, then UK will end up with a large trade deficit and exporters will be crushed. This would tend to send capital to the dollar as safe haven last resort in 2017. Also all the political upheaval that is coming down the pike now.

It seems at some point we have to get some liquidity contagion (similar to what Hoover wrote about the Great Depression was like chairs on the deck of the Titanic being tossed from side-to-side in confusion and volatility) and this could initially take speculation assets down.

Armstrong's models predict gold to continue rising through 2024 and the monetary reset not to be fully invoked until then. The period until 2020, is more about the end of cash and rise of capital controls and war.

Don't be premature thinking gold and BTC are already the "go to safe haven assets of first choice". They are still primarily speculations at this point and strong dollar and rising interest rates can interrupt them.

Treat all huge gains in these tiny speculative market caps as profit taking opportunities. Ditto anyone who was in ETH should have taken some profits after the ~100X gain to $15 from the IPO.

Build a core position from non-nose bleed price levels. This will be a multi-year bull market. When the speculative assets move up too fast relative to their market cap, they are getting ahead of reality (e.g. for example their actual adoption rate not just speculation value) and need a correction.

It appears that both ETH and BTC are making a nose-bleed run right now, and I expect this is phase transition up to a top and pullback. For BTC, it has a solid U bottom base, so the pullback might be moderate say 33 - 67% from what the peak ends up being. ETH appears it might be destroyed by the DAO, so the wasteland crash that follows might be of epic proportions. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

[danherbias07]

I dont know if this is a thread to talk about the alt market or is this a fight against hero members. Or they are fighting/arguing for their own altcoins stomping each other? 

[Spoetnik]

The replies in this thread just shows how many scammers there are in the alt space.  Everyone and their mom knows alts crater when BTC goes on a bull run, yet you have all these fraudsters posting in this thread pretending the opposite happens.  Notice they all have paid sig ads too.  

You don't even need a long memory to know it.  It was only a few months ago when BTC was rising and every single coin on Bologniex would be in the double digit deep red.  The coins with the biggest recent rises like Eth will crater the most as people attempt to momentum trade the new bull market.  You might have an entire two months before it happens, but it could happen any second.

Yup exactly.. well said !

And call them "fraudraisers" ..not fund raisers LOL

PS:
Spoetnik is on the wing of your plane muahhahahahah
..stalking your "Shattners"

[Nxtblg]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

[iamnotback]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

...

Note I've read that the UK leaving will take a minimum of 2 years and they have to negotiate with the EU to leave, which could take much longer than 2 years. So this could get very politically messy. Volatility/uncertainty appears to be on the verge of skyrocketing.

From MA on the 31st May:

...It just so happens that the United Kingdom was born under Queen Ann on May 1, 1707, which was 1707.331. If the BREXIT vote is rejected, civil unrest will start in Britain 309.6 years from that date, which will be 2016.931 or December 5th/6th, 2016...

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/let-the-voter-fraud-begin-in-brexit-ready-set-rig-it/

***

An academic [Dr Lars Mosesson] from Buckinghamshire New University has said there is no legal obligation for the result of the EU referendum to be implemented following the vote...

..."The European Union Referendum Act 2015 only provides for holding a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU: it does not provide that the government is legally obliged to take action on whatever the public decides."
...
...should the public vote to leave, the government could decide not to begin the formal process. He also said that it was possible for the House of Commons, the House of Lords or the Queen to decide not to approve the legislation that would be needed, adding: "If the Queen decided to withhold royal assent, it would be the first time the Monarch has exercised this right since Queen Anne did so for the Scottish Militia Bill in 1707..."

http://bucks.ac.uk/content/newsroom/2016/Dr_Lars_Mosesson

[Kellor]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

At the moment, there is a period of uncertainty, so the asset price is low, it is better to buy now and sell after the refereendum.

[iamnotback]

r0ach how is your 666 TrojanHorse ButtCON investment going to protect you in the upcoming nation-states collapse and 666 lurch to eliminate cash and institute expropriation?

Bend over my friend and prepare to take it deep.

Side chains are nasty hacks that add more problems than they solve, as is the lightning network, segwit and all the other "work arounds".

Agreed. They are Rube Goldberg designs.

Of egregious note, is that SegWit delegates validation to centralized nodes who then have control over which transactions are accepted, thus very easy to implement the 666 ChainAnchor plan from MIT. And SegWit involves trust without verification of validation, thus puts Nash equilibrium on more shaky foundation wherein we trust centralization, i.e. Blockstream is moving Bitcoin towards a fiat system. It appears the Chinese mining cartel and Blockstream are in bed together because you can note that the Chinese cartel used the lame and technically incorrect excuse that the Great Firewall of China prevented them from approving larger block size increases of Bitcoin XT and Classic. But what is really going on, is as explained in my discussion with Professor Jorge Stolfi, that the Chinese cartel wants to be able to control the block size increase so as to maximize the equation for transaction fees.

How do you calculate that Blockstream is for small blocks 

Blockstream is for making sure they and the Chinese mining cartel control how fast the block size increases, so they can squeeze maximum transactions fees that the market will bear. You could read the Reddit discussion between Professor Jorge Stolfi and TPTB_need_war, which explained this.

And SegWit is all about centralization of validation, so that we get a 666 enslavement system. Do you think the powers-that-be invested $70 million in Blockstream for no reason. Come on. You don't think (Mr. ZIRP and Russian oligarchy maker) Larry Summers (who is on the board of 21 Inc.), Peter Thiel (BitPay, gifted $100k to Vitalik @ Ethereum, etc), and other banksters elite are in on that. Come on.

There is only one possible way you defeat those bastards. And that is to make something so popular, that can't be centralized. Once it is very popular, they will have a difficult time taking it away from the people.

Even the French presidential candidate Le Pen, is advocating banning Bitcoin because she has realized AnonyMint was correct in 2013 when he wrote Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch:

http://www.coindesk.com/french-presidential-hopeful-bitcoin-ban/

Some people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is a Trojan Horse planted to force nation-states off of cash and into a digital enslavement.

[darlidada]

so do we have bottom of alts? can we buy back?

[axxo]

so do we have bottom of alts? can we buy back?

I think so, since the price of BTC going down again. Might be good to buy them back.

[AlexGR]

Well I was fairly adamant that the BREXIT would fail (i.e. "Remain"), but it is increasingly looking like the British may vote to "Leave" which is a quick turn of unexpected events: (snip)

Regarding Brexit, I read that the referendum is "advisory": in other words, it's not binding. If the Leave side wins, Cameron and the Tories aren't compelled to do anything except say, "We are taking it under advisement."

The above actually makes it easier to vote "Leave". Legally, since the referendum is non-binding, voting that way is essentially a protest vote: a way of sticking it to The Man.

The Greek referendum was binding... still the government turned it upside down violating the constitution.

If brexit is voted in the UK, and not followed upon, the elite will also lose control of the government in the longrun (UKIP boost by several tens % to enforce the ignored referendum). That's supposing the ukip is not elite-controlled, and I'm not that good at UK-politics to make that determination.

[Spoetnik]

so do we have bottom of alts? can we buy back?

I think so, since the price of BTC going down again. Might be good to buy them back.

Did the halving happen yet ?
Nooope 

I love seeing all the guys line up who fumbled over themselves to say nothing would happen.
And they did not just disagree but they were super arrogant and mouthy and insulting to Roach & i about it too.

We rub it in your scammy tardlet noses pricks.. look who is right AGAIN HA HAHHAHAHAHAHAH

FUCK YOU LOSERS - YOUR ALL STUPID .

b
l
o
w

m
e

 

[Spoetnik]

I think you want to say alts will get bigger and bitcoin will have the floor fall out.

Maybe in an episode of the Twilight Zone or Outer Limits where things do the opposite of reality.  Maybe a Spoetnik gremlin will be on the wing of the plane screwing with the engine too.

and..

I told you so