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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
John999
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January 21, 2017, 09:50:46 PM
 #1141



If Bitcoin ramps, on a Chinese economic crash, due to millions of panicked tech savvy Joe Chungs trying to get their wealth out of CNY.....

.......then the PBOC could close Bitcoin down with a snap of their fingers............even if they never ever do, the fact that this very real danger exists makes Bitcoin a total no go area for any serious big capital.


Chinese have been getting their money out for years already, except not through bitcoin. PBOC has lost 1 trillion in FX reserves over last two years. Not into bitcoin but global real estate, acquiring overseas companies etc. Bitcoin is a $16bn market; what ever amount is flowing out via bitcoin is a blip.

And, if we have a Chinese economic crash, the PBOC & the world will have fuckloads more to worry about than bitcoin.

But, I do believe there is something to capital being worried about Chinese dominance. It's a possibility that hopefully bitcoin will morph around.



16 billions market is starting to be more than a blip. All the silver in the world is worth less than that.
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January 21, 2017, 09:53:13 PM
 #1142

On Trump and Gold you may be right, but about PBOC and Bitcoin I think you're very wrong. It's doubtful they will order all Chinese Bitcoin miners to close down, but even if they do it will not be the end of Bitcoin at all. Non-Chinese miners will be very happy to pick up the slack and besides a short-lasting dip in hashrate and perhaps the price as well I don't see how this would stop Bitcoin. China banning Bitcoin is so 2013... we'll see though I will probably still be here around that time and looking forward to see how Bitcoin will be doing compared to Gold during the next 4 years of Trump presidency. Smiley

If Bitcoin ramps, on a Chinese economic crash, due to millions of panicked tech savvy Joe Chungs trying to get their wealth out of CNY.....

.......then the PBOC could close Bitcoin down with a snap of their fingers............even if they never ever do, the fact that this very real danger exists makes Bitcoin a total no go area for any serious big capital.


and all this shit about the difficulty readjusting and other miners picking up the slack....bullshit. China houses 80% of Bitcoin mining capacity, turn that off overnight and there will be a backlog of transactions spanning weeks, combined with a huge panicked sell off, combined with a dramatic rearrangements in percentage of total mining capacity. Face it, Bitcoin would not survive such trauma, thus the PBOC can indeed kill Bitcoin and unlike in the West, the Chinese government can implement policy upon a whim and nobody will challenge it.

You think that all Chinese miners will just turn off their miners overnight when being told to do so? I don't think so. Bitcoin will definitely survive such a trauma I am willing to make a bet on it. Don't think we'll ever actually find out though but if we do I'm here if you want to take that bet. Bitcoin is much more resilient than you give it credit for, and you give the powers that be way too much credit.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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January 21, 2017, 10:56:30 PM
 #1143

16 billions market is starting to be more than a blip. All the silver in the world is worth less than that.

$16 billion dollar market based on a price that is derived from about 2% of all coins regularly being passed around between bots on Chinese 0% fee exchanges, whilst USD exchange volume grows increasingly thin?

People need to keep in mind what Market Cap actually means. It most certainly does not mean that all the Bitcoin in the world are worth $16 billion.....if even just 1% of those Bitcoin were forced to liquidate with immediate effect, the result would be to cut Bitcoin's value in half.
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January 22, 2017, 12:24:37 AM
 #1144

gold will fucking sky rocket, along with the price of everything else of course....including Bitcoin.....until the PBOC order the miners to close down.

Gold should currently be around $2200 even in their highly downward manipulated system where metals never reflect true price.  I have looked at numerous inflation metrics, though.  It's hard to quantify because there are now more goods and services, higher population, etc, than their was 50 and 100 years ago, but some of these inflation metrics actually show the price of gold being right where it's supposed to be right now ($1200).  Like I said, these metrics do not take all the right variables into account, but those metrics that lowball the price of gold show the exact opposite for silver.  They show the price of silver needing to be at $25 right now and it's $17 instead. 

I think silver is really going to shock people when the metals break free.  Shills like Martin Armstrong, who are some of the most bearish on gold, say it will still go to $5000.  Gold going to $5k would likely bring silver to 30:1 GSR or lower in the bull run ($166 an ounce), so I think no matter what you believe, there is a lot of compelling evidence that you should own some silver because it's likely to highly outperform gold.


I suspect that Donald Trump is going to spend big

Rather than just inflate the currency, I would not be surprised to see something much more drastic as I talk about below:

https://steemit.com/news/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-9-how-trump-might-accidentally-help-soros-and-his-band-of-international-financiers-by-fighting-them


If this was the NSA' secret plan to float an alternative currency now that China, India etc are owning all the gold, then they have surely fucked this one up

Bitcoin has a pretty clear endgame:

You don't understand how disruptive technologies work.

Please, can you not mindlessly repeat Antonopolous slogans like they actually mean something?  Antonopolous is just a salesman or religious evangelist.  The internet isn't some wild west where you can get away with whatever you want.  The state rules the internet and most sectors of the globe are censored already.  There are only two endgames for bitcoin, either the state bans it or co-opts it.  The mining pools are such enormous physical attack vectors that they can shut down Bitcoin just as easily in the physical domain as the digital one even if you were able to magically camouflage all your Bitcoin packets.

So we already know the state can easily wipe out Bitcoin if they want.  The next option is of course co-opting it.  To do this, all they're going to do like I said before, is create a static address, alias system wrapper that goes around Bitcoin and sign laws that you're forced to use it or be considered a criminal launderer.  Then once they have everyone on-boarded, they will divorce the alias system away from the native Bitcoin unit into their regular old fiat system run by the state with the bonus that they were also able to ban cash in the process to totally lock you in their system.

For the 5000th fucking time, Ted Kaczynsky was right and increasing technology always leads to loss of freedom.  There is no way around it whatsoever no matter what your original intention was.  The only way you're getting any freedom is by operating solely in the physical space (transacting in a fungible substance like metals), not digital, because the state never has the resources to monitor every square inch of the earth, but they can easily do so for the digital space!

All you're really doing is making it easier for the state to enslave and destroy you.  Bitcoin came out before the era of them trying to ban cash at every second of the day.  The thing you should be afraid of right now isn't the possibility of a bitcoin ban, it's the fact they aren't trying to ban bitcoin at all!

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January 22, 2017, 12:45:46 AM
 #1145


$16 billion dollar market based on a price that is derived from about 2% of all coins regularly being passed around between bots on Chinese 0% fee exchanges, whilst USD exchange volume grows increasingly thin?

People need to keep in mind what Market Cap actually means. It most certainly does not mean that all the Bitcoin in the world are worth $16 billion.....if even just 1% of those Bitcoin were forced to liquidate with immediate effect, the result would be to cut Bitcoin's value in half.

So just like every other market on the planet including everyone's precious precious metals.

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January 22, 2017, 08:33:57 AM
 #1146


$16 billion dollar market based on a price that is derived from about 2% of all coins regularly being passed around between bots on Chinese 0% fee exchanges, whilst USD exchange volume grows increasingly thin?

People need to keep in mind what Market Cap actually means. It most certainly does not mean that all the Bitcoin in the world are worth $16 billion.....if even just 1% of those Bitcoin were forced to liquidate with immediate effect, the result would be to cut Bitcoin's value in half.

So just like every other market on the planet including everyone's precious precious metals.

Lol, no.  It's actually the exact opposite.  The price on the Comex will go near $0 as they default on delivery and nobody will want to put in a bid there, while the real world OTC price will skyrocket far higher than Comex ever was.  I'm surprised how few people know the metals markets on these boards nowadays.  

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January 22, 2017, 10:03:42 AM
 #1147


$16 billion dollar market based on a price that is derived from about 2% of all coins regularly being passed around between bots on Chinese 0% fee exchanges, whilst USD exchange volume grows increasingly thin?

People need to keep in mind what Market Cap actually means. It most certainly does not mean that all the Bitcoin in the world are worth $16 billion.....if even just 1% of those Bitcoin were forced to liquidate with immediate effect, the result would be to cut Bitcoin's value in half.

So just like every other market on the planet including everyone's precious precious metals.

Lol, no.  It's actually the exact opposite.  The price on the Comex will go near $0 as they default on delivery and nobody will want to put in a bid there, while the real world OTC price will skyrocket far higher than Comex ever was.  I'm surprised how few people know the metals markets on these boards nowadays.  

Well it won't happen if we get a deflationnary cliff. In this case the price of gold will probably halve.
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January 22, 2017, 10:11:41 AM
 #1148

Why Bitcoin is currently a roach motel:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1760723.0

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January 22, 2017, 10:30:25 AM
 #1149

Of the four possible, rapid deflation, slow deflation, slow inflation and rapid inflation I think the first is most unlikely.   That would require a strong dollar in order to see the prices of elements such as gold change rapidly.  
To have strong dollar would require default and stronger interest rates, that might mean 10% on treasury bonds and on 20 trillion of debt that apparently would consume the government national tax intake;  they would have no budget left to spend beyond interest.  That is without further issuing debt .

That is not just unlikely, its more probably impossible.  For Trump to swing from a deficit to surplus in that way doesnt seem to be on the agenda and gives him way too much credit of character and ability by himself and every person required during that process.
In two years the FED and congress which oversees it raised rates half a percent as part of their tightening strategy and while continuing QE.

Quote
If the dominant global power chooses BIG inflation, then the world has no choice but to go along with that.
Im interested to know what China chooses next.    I think they have a use for bitcoin in that it effectively exports cheap energy costs from hydro and coal usage, they only have to tax companies profiting from that.  I presume that is why China has come to dominate in an advanced technology.
I dont think PBOC is hard on bitcoin until its far more overtly behind Gold as a standard.  Bitcoin is weaker now through lack of diversification. gold still has that advantage as despite accumulation China's reserves of gold do not match the Western powers



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January 22, 2017, 10:35:04 AM
 #1150

Of the four possible, rapid deflation, slow deflation, slow inflation and rapid inflation I think the first is most unlikely.  

Well, the goal as per thread topic is for us all to lose our money as fast as possible with MatTheMat, so we will need to figure out which one is the most optimal to accomplish the task.

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January 22, 2017, 11:56:38 AM
 #1151

Of the four possible, rapid deflation, slow deflation, slow inflation and rapid inflation I think the first is most unlikely.  

Well, the goal as per thread topic is for us all to lose our money as fast as possible with MatTheMat, so we will need to figure out which one is the most optimal to accomplish the task.

rapid deflation followed by rapid inflation will do the trick.
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January 23, 2017, 06:25:26 AM
 #1152

Well I think you may be right,  I heard a quote from hundreds of years ago after a period of turmoil stating very similar not sure you meant to reference it.   Hope google finds it, here it is famous dude indeed -

Quote
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

Papers of Thomas Jefferson Digital Edition
Thomas Jefferson Retirement Papers

The worst mistakes are repeated and there is probably some historical precedent for what happens next, we'll all be surprised anyhow as its new to us.   I only read 1929 being discussed, just noting history and extrapolating into future events is TA but this would be on an epic scale and maybe theres not enough record of prices at that time, rates, etc

[There is some idea on sources discussing the quote is not true, I dont know but I still think history would give us a good account of what happens to large debts unwinding.   A whipsaw effect seems probable]


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January 23, 2017, 08:14:22 AM
 #1153

Current bitcoin fundamentals:

A settlement layer has to compete with or beat gold as a store of value.  Bitcoin cannot accomplish that task so it has to do something else besides being a settlement layer or there is no point!

This is the gorilla in the room.  It turns out Roger Ver is wrong because slightly bigger blocks solves nothing.  Bitcoin would require a full blown LN capacity or it doesn't really have a value proposition.  The only question is, can the LN actually function?  It seems like to me you would have to place all channel closing in a centralized queue, so I have my doubts about LN.  And that is the real fundamental analysis of Bitcoin that most people in this thread either can't comprehend or sort of know there are issues like this but choose to ignore them and hope someone will pump it anyway.

So for bitcoin holders to have any value for their coins would need both miners to adopt segwit and LN to actually work in a decentralized manner, and there is currently no assurance for either one.  Although, I think it's likely they will pass segwit once people figure the conclusion I derive is true.  But then you still need LN to work in a decentralized manner or it's just some obfuscated form of Paypal.  Economy of scale might already cause terminal centralization for the 1st tier bitcoin network in the first place though, by driving the reqs to participate to corporation level.

From a fundamental perspective, people that can actually understand how all these variables interact (which I think are very few) know that in current state bitcoin is relatively broken in terms of long term workability.  The only question is how high can the price go before people figure that out.

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MatDerKater
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January 23, 2017, 01:29:45 PM
 #1154

Time for a correction and test of V bottom imo.

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January 23, 2017, 03:54:55 PM
 #1155

Lol @r0ach

So salty about bitcoin lately, must have caught the PM conspiracy hysteria bug and liquidated all his BTC in exchange for Gold

All that Gold huffing and puffing...that's what people do when they try to justify their book position   Wink
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January 23, 2017, 05:43:13 PM
 #1156

Lol @r0ach

So salty about bitcoin lately, must have caught the PM conspiracy hysteria bug and liquidated all his BTC in exchange for Gold

All that Gold huffing and puffing...that's what people do when they try to justify their book position   Wink


Or he is letting the burn show from the massive hit he took on Finex (but publically denied)......


.......or he cashed out a tad too early on the last ramp, and allowed himself to go chasing the market like a n00b.....and got burned.



Whatever, he is correct. In the long run, only gold is true wealth and once Trump is done spunking the USD into Oblivion and the currency devaluation race with China really gets underway, it shall have it's moment in the sun once again. In the meantime, Bitcoin is a volatile high risk low return asset, controlled by a bunch of Chinamen and built on very shaky foundations (Bitcoin is first of it's kind prototype afterall).....it will give everyone there share of thrills n spills, until one day it blows up in everyone's face leaving anyone heavily involved in a whole world of shit........


........I have a hunch that Monero (XMR) could be slowly lining itself up to replace Bitcoin....already a few darknet markets that are accepting it, partially due to users ability to remain truly anonymous, not too mention fast transaction times.....(1 minute instead of 10 minutes going on 3 hours).
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January 23, 2017, 07:07:14 PM
 #1157

[...] Monero (XMR) [...] users ability to remain truly anonymous, not too mention fast transaction times.....(1 minute instead of 10 minutes going on 3 hours).

It has been increased a while ago from 1 to 2 minutes per block. The block reward doubled as well, so no change in the distribution speed. This to decrease the chance of an orphan block.

That said, once your Bitcoin transaction is settled it is obviously more secure than a single Monero confirmation. Therefore most exchanges consider one Bitcoin confirmation sufficient, while Monero requires 8 (on Poloniex that is).

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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January 25, 2017, 12:53:25 AM
Last edit: January 25, 2017, 01:40:58 AM by r0ach
 #1158

Or he is letting the burn show from the massive hit he took on Finex (but publically denied)......

Lost 0 at Bitfinex.  I told everyone I know to remove funds from there after Brexit because it appeared someone (probably Finex owners) were naked shorting with infinite money as I talked about here:

https://steemit.com/news/@r0achtheunsavory/bitfinex-is-lying-about-the-hack-and-i-can-tell-you-exactly-what-likely-happened

I even have screenshots still of right when Bitfinex came back online post-goxing.  See anything fishy in this picture?  An insolvent exchange in which nobody is actually going to put money on has all these big staggered walls on the sell side clearly all belonging to one entity (the house).  Bitfinex is an actual bucketshop 100%.



The fact that not Bitstamp or any other exchange passed Finex in volume post-finex collapse and Finex is still leading in volume even with no margin enabled shows how big of a scam the current bitcoin market is.  It's as if whenever a Karpeles Willy bot dies, a new one just pops up on a different exchange to trade with customer funds.  What happened on Finex appears to be no difference whatsoever with what happened on MtGox, yet Finex was somehow not forced out of business while Gox was.



Whatever, he is correct. In the long run, only gold is true wealth

From my analysis as I talk about in the following link, the only reason gold has value is prevention of counter party risk.  Since gold alone is not capable of such a task, if gold is monetized in any way, silver value always comes along with it:

https://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-vol-8-the-real-fundamentals-involving-gold-silver-and-copper-as-money

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January 25, 2017, 02:14:05 AM
 #1159

I barely lost anything on Finex and I had a $13,000 worth trading account at the time of the hack. Sold my BFX coins recently at $0.69, so I lost less than 10% of my account in the hack. The account is actually worth around $18,500 now because the Bitcoin price increased and I also made some money with trading since the hack. I must admit I feel pretty lucky not having lost any money there. I've withdrawn some of my coins there to reduce my exposure but I'm still happily trading at Bitfinex currently. I don't buy the theories r0ach is coming up with regarding naked shorting, that's just conspiracy bullshit imo. BFX is not MtGox, that hack was much bigger and impossible to recover from. There is always risk keeping money on any exchange though.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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January 25, 2017, 02:30:54 AM
 #1160

I don't buy the theories r0ach is coming up with regarding naked shorting, that's just conspiracy bullshit imo.

Lol, it's conspiracy that other exchanges operate similar to how MtGox did?  Since we're all aware MtGox actually existed, that's not "conspiracy theory", it's precedent for the Bitcoin market.

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