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Author Topic: Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!  (Read 85740 times)
Ibian
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February 04, 2017, 10:28:26 PM
 #1181

MattD if you are out of the Bitcoin market, then why do you care?

Oh wait... closed your short yet?  Grin
He's a narcissist.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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February 05, 2017, 05:16:38 PM
 #1182


Is bitcoin not going back to 900 or even 800 something this month? I want to buy some when my salary comes. I think it will. Maybe in hearts day?   Grin
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February 06, 2017, 02:23:47 AM
Last edit: February 06, 2017, 02:37:42 AM by MatDerKater
 #1183


Is bitcoin not going back to 900 or even 800 something this month? I want to buy some when my salary comes. I think it will. Maybe in hearts day?   Grin

Wouldn't put a time scale on it, bit far more probability that Bitcoin will sharply reverse here, than there is that Bitcoin will keep on ploughing up the chart. Wouldn't want to try and short this, cos Bitcoin is a raging bull atm, and there is always the chance that Bitcoin will keep popping just that little bit higher against the grain, but certainly not a buying point here.......and for anyone who says that it is, I could point them in the direction of loads of better (less risk, higher potential reward) trades than Bitcoin right now.

If I was looking to buy Bitcoin right now, I would be looking closely at the lower $900s, where there is quite strong support (and by 'strong' support, I mean strong relative to the total nosebleed territory that Bitcoin is in). If Bitcoin gets down to $900 in the midst of any kind of violent sell off, I would risk a bid at around $850, along the 61.8% retrace from the $750 - $1140 move.
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February 18, 2017, 05:27:44 PM
 #1184

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.


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February 18, 2017, 06:04:09 PM
 #1185

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.




You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.
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February 18, 2017, 06:38:47 PM
 #1186

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.

I don't think that type of analysis is really valid for something that has the cost of production double overnight.  Bitcoin is designed from the ground up as some type of money making scheme that has to rapidly increase in price or fail entirely.  The thing is always going to be resembling something like a 45 degree up angle or the price will be 0 with no real in-between.  Conventional TA doesn't apply to something like this.  You're either going to make money or lose all your money.

Anyway, I'm happy buying gold like $20 off the floor, but I have more silver:


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afbitcoins
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February 18, 2017, 09:57:45 PM
 #1187

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.

I don't think that type of analysis is really valid for something that has the cost of production double overnight.  Bitcoin is designed from the ground up as some type of money making scheme that has to rapidly increase in price or fail entirely.  The thing is always going to be resembling something like a 45 degree up angle or the price will be 0 with no real in-between.  Conventional TA doesn't apply to something like this.  You're either going to make money or lose all your money.

Anyway, I'm happy buying gold like $20 off the floor, but I have more silver:

*snipped image*

Everyone has their own appetite for the risks involved in crypto. Personally I wouldn't be able to relax if 100% in bitcoin and so yes I also like precious metals. But still I couldn't sit on the side and not be part of what bitcoin is doing.
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February 18, 2017, 10:14:32 PM
 #1188

Now we know what happened to MatTheMat:


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MatDerKater
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February 22, 2017, 03:57:10 PM
 #1189

You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.

The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.
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February 22, 2017, 10:24:49 PM
 #1190


The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.

Thats actually interesting, cheers
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February 23, 2017, 03:01:31 PM
 #1191

You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.

The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.
The rules of bitcoin are, people who are short on bitcoin lose. Even my mom has made four times what she started with. That's how fucking hard it is to make money in bitcoin, even little old ladies can do it.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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February 23, 2017, 03:25:13 PM
 #1192

Even if Matt had held on to his bitcoin that he bought in 2013 @ ~$800 (which wasn't a great entry point), he'd still be up right now 43% in basically 3 years.  Which by any relative accounts is an outstanding return. Now guys would kill to enter at $800. Go figure.

But no, he sold then. Then he didn't buy @ ~$200-ish (a bottom that he actually called).  Or $300. Or $400. Or even $800 again.

He didn't even try to DCA over the last couple of years.  What a pity.

Shit, I'm up 260% on bitcoin I bought years ago.  And I don't even trade, never will.  Don't need to.

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February 23, 2017, 03:31:45 PM
 #1193

Holding was and still is the best advice there is. If you need something and you can buy it with Bitcoin just convert the fiat at the spot.

Is MatTheCat out of the game? to bad for him, it must be a major pain in the ars watching Bitcoin rocket to new highs.

Greed oh yes greed!
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February 23, 2017, 04:26:53 PM
Last edit: February 23, 2017, 04:37:00 PM by MatDerKater
 #1194

Thats actually interesting, cheers

When you know how to work with Gann Squares, they can offer a fantastic 'road map' (no good for taking trade setups off, though..need other tools for that) for any given market. The trick is getting the scale correct. i.e. how many units of price = 1 Gann unit of price (I just scale so that 45 degree line represents average price at point off swing high). There is obviously no arguing with the unit of time, which Gann himself stated should be weekly trading intervals, although Gann Squares can be applied to shorter time intervals and still provide good price road maps.


Even if Matt had held on to his bitcoin that he bought in 2013 @ ~$800 (which wasn't a great entry point), he'd still be up right now 43% in basically 3 years.  Which by any relative accounts is an outstanding return. Now guys would kill to enter at $800. Go figure.

But no, he sold then. Then he didn't buy @ ~$200-ish (a bottom that he actually called).  Or $300. Or $400. Or even $800 again.

He didn't even try to DCA over the last couple of years.  What a pity.

Shit, I'm up 260% on bitcoin I bought years ago.  And I don't even trade, never will.  Don't need to.

I did actually buy at $240 Torque. And held all through 2015, watching position increase by around 35%, then crash right back down, before recovering.....I sold at $335, just prior to the Nov 2015 ramp....then bought back in at $390......then despair sold at......$300! At this point, I decided to learn to trade and was gradually improving and was getting to the point where I was regularly turning out a profit.....and then I got robbed on two different exchanges. On Kraken, I got my account emptied by a 'hacker', with Kraken support offering nothing more than 'sorries for your losses, but you must have had your computer hacked, not our fault, now fuck off' (even though small scale Kraken thefts of this nature happen regularly), and then of course the Bitfinex scam came shortly thereafter.

This was the point, that I decided that I was finished with Bitcoin for good, even although I was very confident that Bitcoin was going to $1500 in the fullness of time. I stated as much in this thread when Bitcoin was still in $500 range (although obviously, I had no clue as to which course Bitcoin would take to finally get up there....with hindsight, seems like Bitcoin opted for a pretty direct route, in the face of some ugly fundamentals i.e. increased heat from PBOC).

Over the piece, I have lost thousands in Bitcoin and other cryptos. I am not stupid, in fact, I am quite smart, but I have to concede that somehow, my karmic blueprint is just not well adapted to the whole 'get rich quick' trading game and I seem emotionally compelled to repeatedly do the wrong things at the wrong time. Sept 2016. Whacked out Mescaline hit that was so strong, it sent me into a DMT entities world. It was coming down off that, that I seen Bitcoin being driven up to $1500 and no mistake about it. At the time was totally confident in this prediction due to where it came from. Told everyone in real life, and posted it on web forums......but I didn't give a fuck. I was 100% through with Bitcoin and all the sharks and crooks swimming around pretty much anything to do with Bitcoin.

I reasoned, and still do reason, that even if my nominal wealth gets wildly pumped through holding Bitcoin, the nature of Bitcoin is such, that you can lose everything, pretty much at the click of a finger. The exchanges pull whatever stunts they wish with utter impunity and the whole project can be turned off overnight by the PBOC.

In the long run, all the current crop of crypto is gonna fail, and in the long long run, global currencies are either gonna fail, or experience some kind of reset or 'consolidation' event. If Trump and his cronies get their way (and I suspect that Trump may prove to be an even bigger dark horse than he has already proven himself to be), he is going to hyperinflate the USD, bringing all those trillions of stored up M0 from post 2009 QE, into Main Street. Crypto good prove very interesting through this period, but at the same time, ever so fragile. Only safe place to be in the end will be in physical gold. Russian and Chinese governments are stock piling gold, not Bitcoin.
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February 23, 2017, 08:38:52 PM
 #1195

I predict that if you ever do buy a bunch of gold, half of it will turn out to be tungsten. And you will blame other people yet again.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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February 24, 2017, 01:15:05 AM
Last edit: February 24, 2017, 05:29:44 PM by MatDerKater
 #1196

I predict that if you ever do buy a bunch of gold, half of it will turn out to be tungsten. And you will blame other people yet again.

Already have some gold and a bunch of silver.....

.....bought it years ago....watched it all double in value and then come right back down again.....but the big BIG pump* is yet to come.....
Shouldn't really call it a pump, cos unlike Bitcoin, the massive precious metals ramp is not going to come about due to the machinations of a few strong hands controlling the market, but despite those strong hands controlling the market.


übrigens.....

looks like Bitcoin is on it's way to $1500.....ATH and Gann arc taken out, and no signs of any blow out top, be sure to take profits though, cos what goes up, must come down.
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March 12, 2017, 04:07:55 PM
 #1197

Ted E. Bare
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March 12, 2017, 04:20:59 PM
 #1198

My feline friend, I advised you to buy and hold at 600 bucks. You suck big time.

I am not interested in holding a big pile of vapour, that I paid $600 per piece for.

Had you followed my advice you would be rich now. It took only ± 6 months and no effort.

Same applies today, buy and hold. Don't look at it. Store your coins away. We talk again a year from now.
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March 12, 2017, 04:32:24 PM
 #1199

Eh, Ted don't waste your breath.  

MattD will still be here in this forum 2-3 years from now, when bitcoin is like $10K/btc, still whining "I wouldn't hold this worthless cra...."  Roll Eyes
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March 12, 2017, 05:19:09 PM
 #1200

Had you followed my advice you would be rich now. It took only ± 6 months and no effort.

Same applies today, buy and hold. Don't look at it. Store your coins away. We talk again a year from now.

June 2016.

That was before I got my Kraken account emptied, and Before I got 'finexxed'.
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