Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[afbitcoins]

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.

You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.

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[r0ach]

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.

I don't think that type of analysis is really valid for something that has the cost of production double overnight.  Bitcoin is designed from the ground up as some type of money making scheme that has to rapidly increase in price or fail entirely.  The thing is always going to be resembling something like a 45 degree up angle or the price will be 0 with no real in-between.  Conventional TA doesn't apply to something like this.  You're either going to make money or lose all your money.

Anyway, I'm happy buying gold like $20 off the floor, but I have more silver:

[afbitcoins]

So here Bitcoin is again, for a 2nd test of the 4th Gann Arc, so I think it is worthwhile posting this chart again. Same message as last time, far more probability of Bitcoin failing here and reversing sharply, than there is of Bitcoin bursting right through.......With that said, I have no skin in the game and wouldn't have the stomach to have any skin in the game either, neither long nor short. That is one parabolic looking chart for a worthless digital token, yet a worthless digital token with more than it's fair share of zealots and manipulators.

I don't think that type of analysis is really valid for something that has the cost of production double overnight.  Bitcoin is designed from the ground up as some type of money making scheme that has to rapidly increase in price or fail entirely.  The thing is always going to be resembling something like a 45 degree up angle or the price will be 0 with no real in-between.  Conventional TA doesn't apply to something like this.  You're either going to make money or lose all your money.

Anyway, I'm happy buying gold like $20 off the floor, but I have more silver:

*snipped image*

Everyone has their own appetite for the risks involved in crypto. Personally I wouldn't be able to relax if 100% in bitcoin and so yes I also like precious metals. But still I couldn't sit on the side and not be part of what bitcoin is doing.

[r0ach]

Now we know what happened to MatTheMat:

[MatDerKater]

You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.

The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.

[afbitcoins]

The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.

Thats actually interesting, cheers

[Ibian]

You might have said the same thing the second time bitcoin reached about $250, following that small fractal spike at the beginning. But bitcoin did burst right through it. You might also have said the same thing when bitcoin reached $32 for the second time, but bitcoin did burst through it.

The rules of the Gann arcs are, that if price bursts right through a Gann Arc, then price will come right back down to retest that Gann arc, which Bitcoin certainly did. The Gann arc was applied by scaling the chart so that a 45° line represented average price from the period at the start of the Gann Square, to the ATH. The spike up to $250 is taken as the point of first resistance, hence the first arc is positioned on that high. It can be seen that Bitcoin shot right through the 2nd arc at around $250, and then again through the 3rd arc, finally failing at the 4th (green) arc, at around $1200. Since price had burst right through the 3rd arc, and also the 2nd arc, the rules of Gann state that these arcs should then be retested, which they both were in as spectacular fashion as they were taken out to the upside. I put this chart together in late 2015. It has since predicted the $780 top, and price is doing as it should on the current Gann arc, and is struggling to get through it, having been violently rejected on the first attempt. Most likely, (i.e. in terms of statistical probabilty) price will fail here once again, and Bitcoin will get whacked back down a bit and be forced to consolidate. If Bitcoin just burst right on through here however, then it can be expected that this arc will be retested somewhere down the line...........


.......with all that said, I still like Bitcoin up until at least $1500 before this pump is said and done.....will probs go a good bit higher as well.

The rules of bitcoin are, people who are short on bitcoin lose. Even my mom has made four times what she started with. That's how fucking hard it is to make money in bitcoin, even little old ladies can do it.

[Torque]

Even if Matt had held on to his bitcoin that he bought in 2013 @ ~$800 (which wasn't a great entry point), he'd still be up right now 43% in basically 3 years.  Which by any relative accounts is an outstanding return. Now guys would kill to enter at $800. Go figure.

But no, he sold then. Then he didn't buy @ ~$200-ish (a bottom that he actually called).  Or $300. Or $400. Or even $800 again.

He didn't even try to DCA over the last couple of years.  What a pity.

Shit, I'm up 260% on bitcoin I bought years ago.  And I don't even trade, never will.  Don't need to.

[Paashaas]

Holding was and still is the best advice there is. If you need something and you can buy it with Bitcoin just convert the fiat at the spot.

Is MatTheCat out of the game? to bad for him, it must be a major pain in the ars watching Bitcoin rocket to new highs.

Greed oh yes greed!

[MatDerKater]

Thats actually interesting, cheers

When you know how to work with Gann Squares, they can offer a fantastic 'road map' (no good for taking trade setups off, though..need other tools for that) for any given market. The trick is getting the scale correct. i.e. how many units of price = 1 Gann unit of price (I just scale so that 45 degree line represents average price at point off swing high). There is obviously no arguing with the unit of time, which Gann himself stated should be weekly trading intervals, although Gann Squares can be applied to shorter time intervals and still provide good price road maps.

Even if Matt had held on to his bitcoin that he bought in 2013 @ ~$800 (which wasn't a great entry point), he'd still be up right now 43% in basically 3 years.  Which by any relative accounts is an outstanding return. Now guys would kill to enter at $800. Go figure.

But no, he sold then. Then he didn't buy @ ~$200-ish (a bottom that he actually called).  Or $300. Or $400. Or even $800 again.

He didn't even try to DCA over the last couple of years.  What a pity.

Shit, I'm up 260% on bitcoin I bought years ago.  And I don't even trade, never will.  Don't need to.

I did actually buy at $240 Torque. And held all through 2015, watching position increase by around 35%, then crash right back down, before recovering.....I sold at $335, just prior to the Nov 2015 ramp....then bought back in at $390......then despair sold at......$300! At this point, I decided to learn to trade and was gradually improving and was getting to the point where I was regularly turning out a profit.....and then I got robbed on two different exchanges. On Kraken, I got my account emptied by a 'hacker', with Kraken support offering nothing more than 'sorries for your losses, but you must have had your computer hacked, not our fault, now fuck off' (even though small scale Kraken thefts of this nature happen regularly), and then of course the Bitfinex scam came shortly thereafter.

This was the point, that I decided that I was finished with Bitcoin for good, even although I was very confident that Bitcoin was going to $1500 in the fullness of time. I stated as much in this thread when Bitcoin was still in $500 range (although obviously, I had no clue as to which course Bitcoin would take to finally get up there....with hindsight, seems like Bitcoin opted for a pretty direct route, in the face of some ugly fundamentals i.e. increased heat from PBOC).

Over the piece, I have lost thousands in Bitcoin and other cryptos. I am not stupid, in fact, I am quite smart, but I have to concede that somehow, my karmic blueprint is just not well adapted to the whole 'get rich quick' trading game and I seem emotionally compelled to repeatedly do the wrong things at the wrong time. Sept 2016. Whacked out Mescaline hit that was so strong, it sent me into a DMT entities world. It was coming down off that, that I seen Bitcoin being driven up to $1500 and no mistake about it. At the time was totally confident in this prediction due to where it came from. Told everyone in real life, and posted it on web forums......but I didn't give a fuck. I was 100% through with Bitcoin and all the sharks and crooks swimming around pretty much anything to do with Bitcoin.

I reasoned, and still do reason, that even if my nominal wealth gets wildly pumped through holding Bitcoin, the nature of Bitcoin is such, that you can lose everything, pretty much at the click of a finger. The exchanges pull whatever stunts they wish with utter impunity and the whole project can be turned off overnight by the PBOC.

In the long run, all the current crop of crypto is gonna fail, and in the long long run, global currencies are either gonna fail, or experience some kind of reset or 'consolidation' event. If Trump and his cronies get their way (and I suspect that Trump may prove to be an even bigger dark horse than he has already proven himself to be), he is going to hyperinflate the USD, bringing all those trillions of stored up M0 from post 2009 QE, into Main Street. Crypto good prove very interesting through this period, but at the same time, ever so fragile. Only safe place to be in the end will be in physical gold. Russian and Chinese governments are stock piling gold, not Bitcoin.

[Ibian]

I predict that if you ever do buy a bunch of gold, half of it will turn out to be tungsten. And you will blame other people yet again.

[MatDerKater]

I predict that if you ever do buy a bunch of gold, half of it will turn out to be tungsten. And you will blame other people yet again.

Already have some gold and a bunch of silver.....

.....bought it years ago....watched it all double in value and then come right back down again.....but the big BIG pump* is yet to come.....
Shouldn't really call it a pump, cos unlike Bitcoin, the massive precious metals ramp is not going to come about due to the machinations of a few strong hands controlling the market, but despite those strong hands controlling the market.


übrigens.....

looks like Bitcoin is on it's way to $1500.....ATH and Gann arc taken out, and no signs of any blow out top, be sure to take profits though, cos what goes up, must come down.

[MatDerKater]

[Ted E. Bare]

My feline friend, I advised you to buy and hold at 600 bucks. You suck big time.

I am not interested in holding a big pile of vapour, that I paid $600 per piece for.

Had you followed my advice you would be rich now. It took only ± 6 months and no effort.

Same applies today, buy and hold. Don't look at it. Store your coins away. We talk again a year from now.

[Torque]

Eh, Ted don't waste your breath.  

MattD will still be here in this forum 2-3 years from now, when bitcoin is like $10K/btc, still whining "I wouldn't hold this worthless cra...." 

[MatDerKater]

Had you followed my advice you would be rich now. It took only ± 6 months and no effort.

Same applies today, buy and hold. Don't look at it. Store your coins away. We talk again a year from now.

June 2016.

That was before I got my Kraken account emptied, and Before I got 'finexxed'.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin is practically a toxic asset now with markets like this:

This market has turned full blown scam. 

Price up 1.6% from pre-ETF decision pump of $1200?  Not down....not even 5% down...but UP instead? LOL.  If there was any exchange on earth besides Bitfinex being the market leader to determine price world-wide, I might let it slide, but we're talking about the second coming of Mt Gox here - an exchange that already appeared to be naked shorting their own customers during the halving, admittedly traded on their own exchange while knowing where all margin positiosn are, probably traded with customer funds too, and then ranomly out of the blue stole something like $70 million of bitcoin from customers. 

Is this a dream?  How does Bitfinex STILL control the world-wide price of bitcoin while being completely insolvent and still owing customers something like $60 million dollars???

[MatDerKater]

Bitcoin is practically a toxic asset now with markets like this:

This market has turned full blown scam.  

Price up 1.6% from pre-ETF decision pump of $1200?  Not down....not even 5% down...but UP instead? LOL.  If there was any exchange on earth besides Bitfinex being the market leader to determine price world-wide, I might let it slide, but we're talking about the second coming of Mt Gox here - an exchange that already appeared to be naked shorting their own customers during the halving, admittedly traded on their own exchange while knowing where all margin positiosn are, probably traded with customer funds too, and then ranomly out of the blue stole something like $70 million of bitcoin from customers.  

Is this a dream?  How does Bitfinex STILL control the world-wide price of bitcoin while being completely insolvent and still owing customers something like $60 million dollars???

A toxic asset is precisely what Bitcoin is. None of the major markets can be trusted and the vast majority of the Bitcoin are in very few hands, thus the market is cornered and controlled.

With that said. Whilst Bitcoins are in my view, worthless, the price action is the price action.

Do I think that 'they' are going to drive Bitcoin higher? For Sure! Fast profits to be had for shark traders with the stomach to tolerate the by now massive downside risk, but for anyone thinking about investing in Bitcoin for their retirement or kiddies college fund, i.e., the true believers, these people are going to get absolutely fucking slaughtered. When this worthless Chinese controlled flawed, bloated, manipulated digital token fails, it will fail very quickly.

To answer 'Ted E Bare':
In June 2016, I was correct to not want to buy Bitcoin, as significant downside was yet to come. Little was I to know that the downside target would be reached with news of the so called Bitfinex hacks. In Sept 2016, with Bitcoin in the $500 range, I called $1500 Bitcoin. Look back in this thread. It is there in black and white. I also stated that after having two Bitcoin accounts plundered, with the most likely culpritts being rats within the exchanges themselves, that I was finished trading, holding, and investing in Bitcoin, because aside from the entire Bitcoin sphere being utterly toxic and corrupt, Bitcoin is in the grander scheme of things, absolutely fucking worthless. Gold is real wealth. Bitcoin may cost more than an Oz of gold at the moment, but over the test of time, gold will always be valued as wealth whereas Bitcoin's destiny is to be revealed as the vapour that it really is.

A grand idea perhaps, but also the definition of a prototype.

[sgbett]

In June 2016, I was correct to not want to buy Bitcoin...

Since bitcoin came out there has pretty much *never* been a time that was true.

[MatDerKater]

In June 2016, I was correct to not want to buy Bitcoin...

Since bitcoin came out there has pretty much *never* been a time that was true.

Technically speaking, you aint wrong...

...but hindsight is 20/20 and you have been around long enough to know that the arse can fall out of Bitcoin with a moments notice.