Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[rizla.plus]

Thanks for the forecast.  Does this take into account any speculation of the next generation miners that will raise the collective hashrate?  I would love the excel spreadsheet to manipulate some price speculation of my own.

Here it is:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1m3xac87ptylj0/hash%20forecast.xlsx?dl=0

I've set the numbers specifically for running an S9 in the US starting Jan 18.
The main numbers to play with are:
- BTC/month in Jan 18 (currently a 13.5Th S9 makes about 0.053 BTC / month)
- Power cost / month (currently set at $150 for a 1400W S9)
- BTC - USD exchange rate (currently set at $11500 as it was earlier today)

You can adjust the first two to whatever miner specs you have in mind, and the 3rd to whater you think Bitcoin will do this year.
You can play with the forecast formulas as well if you're confident with that.

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[rizla.plus]

If bitcoin mining isn't profitable for you right now, you either aren't using the right miners/the right amount of miners, or are doing something else totally wrong.

It would be very profitable if you bought miners last year, for sure.

[krisgt30]

If bitcoin mining isn't profitable for you right now, you either aren't using the right miners/the right amount of miners, or are doing something else totally wrong.

It would be very profitable if you bought miners last year, for sure.

Even if you literally just purchased 20 machines right this second to mine from bitmain. The overall percentage of revenue coming from transaction fees according to blockchain is 23.39%. Regardless of difficulty increase these online calculators are not accounting for nearly a quarter of a miners revenue stream.

[rizla.plus]

Even if you literally just purchased 20 machines right this second to mine from bitmain. The overall percentage of revenue coming from transaction fees according to blockchain is 23.39%. Regardless of difficulty increase these online calculators are not accounting for nearly a quarter of a miners revenue stream.

I know but I am,
Have a look at the spreadsheet,
I've set the BTC mined per month for Jan 18 at 0.053, currently the online calculators are saying 0.045. So I have added about 25% to that.

[krisgt30]

I took your .045 monthly btc earnings (multiplied them by 20 for 20 s9s purchased in q1 2018). .9BTC x 23.9%(tx fees conservative average for entire upcoming year) (.2151) = 1.1151BTC a month. My commercial power rates for my company mining are .099/kwh. This is what you get on your spreadsheet. Of course cable/cooling is excluded but that is minimal where I reside. Also as a business, the cost of the purchase of said hardware/rent/electrical/cable is all tax deductible. It still is way more profitable than just flipping on ebay when you factor all these things in.
https://imgur.com/UJK43PZ

[rizla.plus]

I took your .045 monthly btc earnings (multiplied them by 20 for 20 s9s purchased in q1 2018). .9BTC x 23.9%(tx fees conservative average for entire upcoming year) (.2151) = 1.1151BTC a month. My commercial power rates for my company mining are .099/kwh. This is what you get on your spreadsheet. Of course cable/cooling is excluded but that is minimal where I reside. Also as a business, the cost of the purchase of said hardware/rent/electrical/cable is all tax deductible. It still is way more profitable than just flipping on ebay when you factor all these things in.
https://imgur.com/UJK43PZ

I don't believe you set the power cost correctly in the image you've attached. You set your total power cost per month to $99.79, to run 20 miners at 1400W each! That would be awesome :-)
If you pay $.099/kwh than one miner would cost roughly $100/month @ 1400W.
20 miners would cost $2000/month to run, you need to put that number in the Power $/month field.

[rizla.plus]

I've just updated the spreadsheat as well to include initial investment cost, and added 3 columns that show your "position" each month, this shows where you break even and start making money on your investment.

[krisgt30]

Sorry it’s late and my son is sick, bound for an error or two. I fudged the power. The great thing about mining under a business is that although you have a tax burden for capital gains, all your expenses incurred to achieve these gains make it very profitable. What other company can you start up with an ROI under 6 months?

[rizla.plus]

Sorry it’s late and my son is sick, bound for an error or two. I fudged the power. The great thing about mining under a business is that although you have a tax burden for capital gains, all your expenses incurred to achieve these gains make it very profitable. What other company can you start up with an ROI under 6 months?

Understand,
I'll leave the spreadsheet on my dropbox for a while so you can play with it a bit more later if you want to.
Like I said, it will now also calculate if/when you will break even in the 3 different scenarios.

[CarrollFilms]

I think Bitmain took a great advantage of this dip. Bitcoin dips, price per bitcoin falls.

People pay a lot more coin for each miner.

1 month passes and their bitcoin stockpile has fucking exploded in value.

It's so dirty

[mustangy]

I think Bitmain took a great advantage of this dip. Bitcoin dips, price per bitcoin falls.

People pay a lot more coin for each miner.

1 month passes and their bitcoin stockpile has fucking exploded in value.

It's so dirty

or they open usd wire again and jihan will buy more bch or btc
usd value up crypto down great time to sell
guys track backward the bch or btc you paid it is much more than ebay miner price today.
So basically keep bitcoin is better than buy because they sell at tricky times

[The Demon Slick]

I don't think the profitability counter graph is accounting for HODL. I think if you are counting on cashing out for a revenue stream, then yes, it's reflective, and that's what a lot of the bigger miners are doing, because they have such large investment. Or a little guy with a few machines trying to make a little extra. I'm getting s9's to mine and hold. Buying 10k btc is a one way dead end street. Spend 10k on 2-3 s9's, put them in a spare room, pay the electric from my regular job, and in a couple years, let's see what btc price is. Years later when I calculate my profit I'll ignore my electric costs to make my profit look better to me 

[CrypotoCreanis]

I don't think the profitability counter graph is accounting for HODL. I think if you are counting on cashing out for a revenue stream, then yes, it's reflective, and that's what a lot of the bigger miners are doing, because they have such large investment. Or a little guy with a few machines trying to make a little extra. I'm getting s9's to mine and hold. Buying 10k btc is a one way dead end street. Spend 10k on 2-3 s9's, put them in a spare room, pay the electric from my regular job, and in a couple years, let's see what btc price is. Years later when I calculate my profit I'll ignore my electric costs to make my profit look better to me 

Doing similar, but I am cashing out 75% and hodl 25% at 1st until b/e and paying down some debt, then I will increase hodl percentage

[Par Avion]

I don't think the profitability counter graph is accounting for HODL. I think if you are counting on cashing out for a revenue stream, then yes, it's reflective, and that's what a lot of the bigger miners are doing, because they have such large investment. Or a little guy with a few machines trying to make a little extra. I'm getting s9's to mine and hold. Buying 10k btc is a one way dead end street. Spend 10k on 2-3 s9's, put them in a spare room, pay the electric from my regular job, and in a couple years, let's see what btc price is. Years later when I calculate my profit I'll ignore my electric costs to make my profit look better to me 

Doing similar, but I am cashing out 75% and hodl 25% at 1st until b/e and paying down some debt, then I will increase hodl percentage

bingo! this is what small time mining is all about.

[rifleman74]

Guys,

Do you think that with the price collapse now, Bitcoin (or Bitcoin Cash) mining difficulty will be corrected downwards too? I guess some people will switch their miners off, or I am wrong?

You may see more for sale...part of the reason Bitmain is dumping s9's on the market.

[kenji]

Guys,

Do you think that with the price collapse now, Bitcoin (or Bitcoin Cash) mining difficulty will be corrected downwards too? I guess some people will switch their miners off, or I am wrong?

Of course the difficulty will correct following the price. Always has, likely always will. That's how bigger miners remain profitable.

Even if the profitability drops, keep mining anyway. It means you're getting coins on the cheap for when the price eventually - whether it be a month, or a year - bounces back to new all time highs.

The last time we saw a big crash like this - especially if it keeps dropping over the next few weeks - was 2013. It took years for the price to bounce back to what it is today, but when everyone was crying "bitcoin is dead" when it was $275, we kept mining and kept holding our coins, because we knew that one day the price would bounce back to new all time highs. This game takes balls of steel to play.

[rifleman74]

Guys,

Do you think that with the price collapse now, Bitcoin (or Bitcoin Cash) mining difficulty will be corrected downwards too? I guess some people will switch their miners off, or I am wrong?

Of course the difficulty will correct following the price. Always has, likely always will. That's how bigger miners remain profitable.

Even if the profitability drops, keep mining anyway. It means you're getting coins on the cheap for when the price eventually - whether it be a month, or a year - bounces back to new all time highs.

The last time we saw a big crash like this - especially if it keeps dropping over the next few weeks - was 2013. It took years for the price to bounce back to what it is today, but when everyone was crying "bitcoin is dead" when it was $275, we kept mining and kept holding our coins, because we knew that one day the price would bounce back to new all time highs. This game takes balls of steel to play.

what kenji said.   You're mining for tomorrow.

[Sandal_Hat]

Guys,

Do you think that with the price collapse now, Bitcoin (or Bitcoin Cash) mining difficulty will be corrected downwards too? I guess some people will switch their miners off, or I am wrong?

Of course the difficulty will correct following the price. Always has, likely always will. That's how bigger miners remain profitable.

Even if the profitability drops, keep mining anyway. It means you're getting coins on the cheap for when the price eventually - whether it be a month, or a year - bounces back to new all time highs.

The last time we saw a big crash like this - especially if it keeps dropping over the next few weeks - was 2013. It took years for the price to bounce back to what it is today, but when everyone was crying "bitcoin is dead" when it was $275, we kept mining and kept holding our coins, because we knew that one day the price would bounce back to new all time highs. This game takes balls of steel to play.

Actually, why would difficulty drop? Electricity cost difference issue between some home miners and some bitcoin miners. Is it high rental cost? Or having to be locked in a rental contract for 2 years? Having to pay rent when u cant run your machines is sad. But if it drops historically, and it drops later, then great. I guess for some people, it is not worth running it for tiny profit.

[CryptoCrane]

FYI, our Dec 20-30 Jan 11-20 order finally shipped.

[CrypotoCreanis]

FYI, our Dec 20-30 Jan 11-20 order finally shipped.

Same here. Already got the call from ups for my SS info. Expected to be stateside Friday