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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 02:14:27 AM |
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Its been like this many times in the past. People use all kinds of weird logic and math to come up with awesome profit scenario's to justify mining. Mining rigs fly off the proverbial shelf with manufacture's getting interest free loans from investomers! Most newbs don't understand a basic fact about Bitcoin POW mining. Mining was designed as a "near" zero sum game and the network is constantly making its way towards that goal.
Another often over looked perspective is that mining can be looked at as a bet AGAINST diff increase. Based on available data this doesn't like a good bet to me right now! I think a lot of people will find this out over the coming months!
That's exactly what I'm trying to explain here and the numbers show this so very clearly. Only in the most optimistic scenarios will your miners make some money for some time. For those who have S9's on hand now, new, used or coming soon, sell'em now!!! You will make a massive profit given the prices they sell for on Ebay right now. Your miner will never make that kind of money, the numbers are just not in your favor no matter how you put it. But, wait a month or 2 and they will be worth peanuts and your miner will be making little or no money at all. Again, It's really NOT about the bitcoin price, it's about the growing network hashrate and given Bitmain has been dumping S9's like there is no tomorrow in the last month or two, the most pessimistic line on the graph above might well not be pessimistic enough. I made this chart a little while ago when I was deciding whether or not to sell my S9 miner (which I did at a massive profit), and looking at what the network hashrate has actually done since then: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l, It appears to be tracking well above the middle line towards the pessimistic line. (I had it at 14.9E at Jan 1st, it was actually 15.4E) You couldn't possibly know that in a month or two the S9 will make little or no money at all. The price of bitcoin could continue dropping, the difficulty continue rising, and the S9 would still be profitable, so how in the world is it that you think in 2 months it will be making little to no money at all? Just look at the numbers, even the most optimistic scenario where total network hashrate growth (and thus also difficulty growth) decreases only makes you a small profit by the end of the year. And be honest, is there anyone in their right minds who believes that will happen? Hashrate/difficulty has never gone down other then a blip here and there, it has always increased and rate at which it increases has always increased as well. Again, bitcoin exchange rate has nothing to do with it because if you put that money in btc now, it would equally go up/down. You can say "the hashrate/difficulty has never gone down other than a blip here and there" the same way that I can say the price of bitcoin has never gone down other than a blip here and there over the course of it's lifetime. Every time bitcoin tanks people come out of the woodwork and say the end is near, mining won't be profitable anymore, sell your miners now, and every time they've been wrong. They've always been wrong because bitcoin has always rebounded to reach new all time highs. Whether it takes a month to do so, or a year, it has always happened. Now is no different. If you don't believe bitcoin will rebound, then yes sell your miners, sell your bitcoin, sell it all, the end is near. If you do however believe in bitcoin and it's future, then of course you would be a fool to sell your miners. It just depends on what you believe will happen, which is why I say you can't possibly think you know what will happen. I’ve said it in every post now and I’ll say it again: this has nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate, which is unpredictable as you say, I totally agree with that. You need to see it as if your initial investment was done in BTC, not USD. And also your power consumption gets added to that in BTC btw. It has everything to do with network hashrate/difficulty and that is very predictable, within ceratin tolerances as I have done. I look after forecasting systems in our business and I can tell you, those numbers are the most forecastable I have ever seen, I wish our products were forecastable like that, we could manage our stock levels a hell of a lot better. Anyway, you want to bet the network hashrate is not going to increase at those rates, all I can say is good luck, and I would call that wishful thinking at best. Why does this have nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate? Why do I need to see it as if my initial investment was done in BTC, not USD? Who made up that rule, you? |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 02:47:18 AM |
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Darn close, I'd have to add everything up. Initially I was having so much fun I didn't do much record keeping. Anyway why would the spreadsheet only be for an S9? I mean difficulty and hashrate don't care right? It's simply how much I paid for the machine vs. how much it can produce? I do agree that earnings can and will be affected by difficulty, that is a given. I am just trying to understand how a machine can go non-profitable in such a short amount of time. Because again if that's true then S7's or any old miner for that matter should not be profitable either.
Pretty sure they make next to nothing anymore depending on what you pay for power where you are, see: https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=4700.00&p=1293.00&pc=0.2&pf=0.00&d=2227847638503.63000000&r=12.50000000&er=12294.11000000&hc=0.00 |
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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 02:51:22 AM |
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Darn close, I'd have to add everything up. Initially I was having so much fun I didn't do much record keeping. Anyway why would the spreadsheet only be for an S9? I mean difficulty and hashrate don't care right? It's simply how much I paid for the machine vs. how much it can produce? I do agree that earnings can and will be affected by difficulty, that is a given. I am just trying to understand how a machine can go non-profitable in such a short amount of time. Because again if that's true then S7's or any old miner for that matter should not be profitable either.
Pretty sure they make next to nothing anymore depending on what you pay for power where you are, see: https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=4700.00&p=1293.00&pc=0.2&pf=0.00&d=2227847638503.63000000&r=12.50000000&er=12294.11000000&hc=0.00$0.20/kWh is widely agreed to be too high to be mining with. Cut that number in half to a realistic number of $0.10/kWh and it still makes $100/mo, I wouldn't call that next to nothing! |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:04:26 AM
Last edit: January 18, 2018, 03:14:44 AM by rizla.plus |
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Why does this have nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate? Why do I need to see it as if my initial investment was done in BTC, not USD? Who made up that rule, you?
NO, of course I haven’t it’s simple maths. Maybe I’ve confused you with those extra columns so let me explain differently: Only look at what BTC/USD is right now (around $11500) and look at the first set of 3 columns where I predict how much BTC your miner will make in the 3 scenarios. Don’t look at the other sets of columns because they make assumptions about the BTC price in the future. Now, Scenario 1: You buy an antminer today for $3000 (incl. PSU, shipping & tax), you get it straight away and start mining. You’re down $3000 you have an antminer in hand and 0 BTC in your wallet. Scenario 2: You buy $3000 worth of BTC which equals 0.2608BTC. So you’re also down $3000 you have no miner but you have 0.2608BTC in your wallet. In scenario 1 look at the 3 columns on the spreadsheet that predict how much BTC you make per month (again: THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT BTC/USD WILL DO ON THE FUTURE) At which point have you actually made 0.2608BTC in each of the 3 scenarios and can you start getting ahead on scenario 2? In the standard forecast its September, in the pessimistic one it’s right at the end of the year. And what we have not done (because we’re ignoring the next 2 sets of numbers) is add in power cost, so it’s actually much worse but we cannot predict that unless we assume today’s BTC/USD exchange rate. Also if we do that we would have to increase the value of the investment in scenario 2 by the same amount every month and add that to those 0.2608BTC, so you would always stay behind. Now at that point in time (where you’ve reached 0.2608BTC), your miner is making next to nothing unless you look only at the most optimistic scenario where difficulty/ hashrate decrease, so your asset is worth next to nothing at that point as well. Hence, my conclusion… |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:07:46 AM |
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Yep sorry, I had that number too high. $.057 is awesome BTW!!! |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:09:22 AM |
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Like I said before, if your miner is paid off then sure. If that $100/month (and decreasing every month) goes towards paying off that miner (at $3000), it's definitely next to nothing in my view. In any case $100/month can only be seen as a hobby in my view. |
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Raymond_B
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January 18, 2018, 03:16:54 AM |
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Like I said before, if your miner is paid off then sure. If that $100/month (and decreasing every month) goes towards paying off that miner (at $3000), it's definitely next to nothing in my view. In any case $100/month can only be seen as a hobby in my view. I **did** have to pay off my miner. That's what I am trying to get you to see. I bought it, it had a cost, I must recover that cost to be profitable. If you'd look at my posted pic you can see clearly how much it's earning. And again that's why I am questioning your math, that miner, as old as it is, should not be making anything at all. But it is, now you're qualifying what's profit and what is not. That's not math, that's subjective  |
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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 03:23:32 AM |
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Why does this have nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate? Why do I need to see it as if my initial investment was done in BTC, not USD? Who made up that rule, you?
NO, of course I haven’t it’s simple maths. Maybe I’ve confused you with those extra columns so let me explain differently: Only look at what BTC/USD is right now (around $11500) and look at the first set of 3 columns where I predict how much BTC your miner will make in the 3 scenarios. Don’t look at the other sets of columns because they make assumptions about the BTC price in the future. Now, Scenario 1: You buy an antminer today for $3000 (incl. PSU, shipping & tax), you get it straight away and start mining. You’re down $3000 you have an antminer in hand and 0 BTC in your wallet. Scenario 2: You buy $3000 worth of BTC which equals 0.2608BTC. So you’re also down $3000 you have no miner but you have 0.2608BTC in your wallet. In scenario 1 look at the 3 columns on the spreadsheet that predict how much BTC you make per month (again: THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT BTC/USD WILL DO ON THE FUTURE) At which point have you actually made 0.2608BTC in each of the 3 scenarios and can you start getting ahead on scenario 2? In the standard forecast its September, in the pessimistic one it’s right at the end of the year. And what we have not done (because we’re ignoring the next 2 sets of numbers) is add in power cost, so it’s actually much worse but we cannot predict that unless we assume today’s BTC/USD exchange rate. Also if we do that we would have to increase the value of the investment in scenario 2 by the same amount every month and add that to those 0.2608BTC, so you would always stay behind. Now at that point in time (where you’ve reached 0.2608BTC), your miner is making next to nothing unless you look only at the most optimistic scenario where difficulty/ hashrate decrease, so your asset is worth next to nothing at that point as well. Hence, my conclusion… I'm just not following along with your spreadsheet. Are you assuming in your predictions that the price of bitcoin remain constant, whilst the difficulty continues to rise? That wouldn't make sense if so. You keep saying it has nothing to do with BTC/USD yet I see a bunch of figures in USD. |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:25:35 AM |
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Like I said before, if your miner is paid off then sure. If that $100/month (and decreasing every month) goes towards paying off that miner (at $3000), it's definitely next to nothing in my view. In any case $100/month can only be seen as a hobby in my view. I **did** have to pay off my miner. That's what I am trying to get you to see. I bought it, it had a cost, I must recover that cost to be profitable. If you'd look at my posted pic you can see clearly how much it's earning. And again that's why I am questioning your math, that miner, as old as it is, should not be making anything at all. But it is, now you're qualifying what's profit and what is not. That's not math, that's subjective I know, I believe you. You did, indeed have to pay it off, BUT, when difficulty/hashrate was much lower, that miner would have been making much more than it does today no? Also, your initial investment was much lower as well. And there is one thing you can be (almost) sure of, it will make less and less as time progresses. And that is what I am trying to show in this spreadsheet for the S9 specifically, bought today at $3000, But you could adjust the numbers to an S7, bought today at ~$700 and see what you get. And to answer your question from before, the reason miners can(will) go from being profitable to non-profitable in such a short amount of time is because the difficulty is increasing at ever increasing rates. If they were increasing in a linear manner, you would be able to put a fixed "profitability" time on a miner, but the curve is not linear, it's exponential. |
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Raymond_B
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January 18, 2018, 03:31:56 AM |
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Like I said before, if your miner is paid off then sure. If that $100/month (and decreasing every month) goes towards paying off that miner (at $3000), it's definitely next to nothing in my view. In any case $100/month can only be seen as a hobby in my view. I **did** have to pay off my miner. That's what I am trying to get you to see. I bought it, it had a cost, I must recover that cost to be profitable. If you'd look at my posted pic you can see clearly how much it's earning. And again that's why I am questioning your math, that miner, as old as it is, should not be making anything at all. But it is, now you're qualifying what's profit and what is not. That's not math, that's subjective I know, I believe you. You did, indeed have to pay it off, BUT, when difficulty/hashrate was much lower, that miner would have been making much more than it does today no? Also, your initial investment was much lower as well. And there is one thing you can be (almost) sure of, it will make less and less as time progresses. And that is what I am trying to show in this spreadsheet for the S9 specifically, bought today at $3000, But you could adjust the numbers to an S7, bought today at ~$700 and see what you get. And to answer your question from before, the reason miners can(will) go from being profitable to non-profitable in such a short amount of time is because the difficulty is increasing at ever increasing rates. If they were increasing in a linear manner, you would be able to put a fixed "profitability" time on a miner, but the curve is not linear, it's exponential. Yes sir, I understand and agree with everything you're saying. However my disagreement is simply with the accelerated rate to 0 you propose. True enough that difficulty is not linear, however it is not as predictable as you lay out either. And that in my noob, uneducated opinion, is the flaw in the math. |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:35:59 AM |
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Why does this have nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate? Why do I need to see it as if my initial investment was done in BTC, not USD? Who made up that rule, you?
NO, of course I haven’t it’s simple maths. Maybe I’ve confused you with those extra columns so let me explain differently: Only look at what BTC/USD is right now (around $11500) and look at the first set of 3 columns where I predict how much BTC your miner will make in the 3 scenarios. Don’t look at the other sets of columns because they make assumptions about the BTC price in the future. Now, Scenario 1: You buy an antminer today for $3000 (incl. PSU, shipping & tax), you get it straight away and start mining. You’re down $3000 you have an antminer in hand and 0 BTC in your wallet. Scenario 2: You buy $3000 worth of BTC which equals 0.2608BTC. So you’re also down $3000 you have no miner but you have 0.2608BTC in your wallet. In scenario 1 look at the 3 columns on the spreadsheet that predict how much BTC you make per month (again: THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT BTC/USD WILL DO ON THE FUTURE) At which point have you actually made 0.2608BTC in each of the 3 scenarios and can you start getting ahead on scenario 2? In the standard forecast its September, in the pessimistic one it’s right at the end of the year. And what we have not done (because we’re ignoring the next 2 sets of numbers) is add in power cost, so it’s actually much worse but we cannot predict that unless we assume today’s BTC/USD exchange rate. Also if we do that we would have to increase the value of the investment in scenario 2 by the same amount every month and add that to those 0.2608BTC, so you would always stay behind. Now at that point in time (where you’ve reached 0.2608BTC), your miner is making next to nothing unless you look only at the most optimistic scenario where difficulty/ hashrate decrease, so your asset is worth next to nothing at that point as well. Hence, my conclusion… I'm just not following along with your spreadsheet. Are you assuming in your predictions that the price of bitcoin remain constant, whilst the difficulty continues to rise? That wouldn't make sense if so. You keep saying it has nothing to do with BTC/USD yet I see a bunch of figures in USD. No, the spreadsheet does a lot more, I agree, but specifically my last post was just to explain to you why you would always be behind when buying a miner, I am comparing a scenario where you convert $3000 in a miner to make you BTC, and another scenario where you convert that $3000 directly into BTC (even ignoring power cost) Hence what only matters is today's exchange rate. Now it does not really matter that much if you do include the other columns either because the value of your initial investment in BTC also fluctuates but it gets more complicated then, lets keep it simple for now... |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:42:49 AM |
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Yes sir, I understand and agree with everything you're saying. However my disagreement is simply with the accelerated rate to 0 you propose. True enough that difficulty is not linear, however it is not as predictable as you lay out either. And that in my noob, uneducated opinion, is the flaw in the math.
Like I said, I have quite a lot to do with forecasting in our business and I can assure you, based on the history this is the most predictable set of numbers I have ever had to forecast. Even excel can do a pretty good job at it using the standard forecast function :-) Even by hand. Just look at this chart, draw it on a piece of paper or print it out, and try to predict with a pen & ruler where the next point will be: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/5y?c=m&g=15&t=aIt's really not that hard :-) I'm sure you'd have a pretty good idea where that point will be based just on what you see there. Now that said, just assume your miner's revenue decrease is exactly proportional to that increase, I'm sure you see where I'm getting at. |
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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 03:44:17 AM |
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Why does this have nothing to do with the bitcoin/usd exchange rate? Why do I need to see it as if my initial investment was done in BTC, not USD? Who made up that rule, you?
NO, of course I haven’t it’s simple maths. Maybe I’ve confused you with those extra columns so let me explain differently: Only look at what BTC/USD is right now (around $11500) and look at the first set of 3 columns where I predict how much BTC your miner will make in the 3 scenarios. Don’t look at the other sets of columns because they make assumptions about the BTC price in the future. Now, Scenario 1: You buy an antminer today for $3000 (incl. PSU, shipping & tax), you get it straight away and start mining. You’re down $3000 you have an antminer in hand and 0 BTC in your wallet. Scenario 2: You buy $3000 worth of BTC which equals 0.2608BTC. So you’re also down $3000 you have no miner but you have 0.2608BTC in your wallet. In scenario 1 look at the 3 columns on the spreadsheet that predict how much BTC you make per month (again: THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT BTC/USD WILL DO ON THE FUTURE) At which point have you actually made 0.2608BTC in each of the 3 scenarios and can you start getting ahead on scenario 2? In the standard forecast its September, in the pessimistic one it’s right at the end of the year. And what we have not done (because we’re ignoring the next 2 sets of numbers) is add in power cost, so it’s actually much worse but we cannot predict that unless we assume today’s BTC/USD exchange rate. Also if we do that we would have to increase the value of the investment in scenario 2 by the same amount every month and add that to those 0.2608BTC, so you would always stay behind. Now at that point in time (where you’ve reached 0.2608BTC), your miner is making next to nothing unless you look only at the most optimistic scenario where difficulty/ hashrate decrease, so your asset is worth next to nothing at that point as well. Hence, my conclusion… I'm just not following along with your spreadsheet. Are you assuming in your predictions that the price of bitcoin remain constant, whilst the difficulty continues to rise? That wouldn't make sense if so. You keep saying it has nothing to do with BTC/USD yet I see a bunch of figures in USD. No, the spreadsheet does a lot more, I agree, but specifically my last post was just to explain to you why you would always be behind when buying a miner, I am comparing a scenario where you convert $3000 in a miner to make you BTC, and another scenario where you convert that $3000 directly into BTC (even ignoring power cost) Hence what only matters is today's exchange rate. Now it does not really matter that much if you do include the other columns either because the value of your initial investment in BTC also fluctuates but it gets more complicated then, lets keep it simple for now... But you can't base the full value of the miner on today's exchange rate alone, which is why this prediction that "you'll always be behind by mining" doesn't make sense. You assume the difficulty will continue to rise, yet not the price of bitcoin. This prediction is made in an unrealistic vacuum that isn't applicable to real life, at least not the way that I'm understanding it. You're also not factoring in that when you go to resell your miner you will make back a lot of what you originally spent. |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 03:52:32 AM |
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But you can't base the full value of the miner on today's exchange rate alone, which is why these predictions don't make sense. You assume the difficulty will continue to rise, yet not the price of bitcoin. This prediction is made in an unrealistic vacuum that isn't applicable to real life, at least not the way that I'm understanding it.\
Yes you can, if you convert that $3000 into BTC TODAY and you hold from that point on in both scenarios you absolutely can. BTC/USD exchange rate is not relevant anymore because we're comparing BTC-BTC at that point. You're also not factoring in that when you go to resell your miner you will make back a lot of what you originally spent.
I sure was, that's why I said (look at what I put here in bold): At which point have you actually made 0.2608BTC in each of the 3 scenarios and can you start getting ahead on scenario 2?
In the standard forecast its September, in the pessimistic one it’s right at the end of the year.
And what we have not done (because we’re ignoring the next 2 sets of numbers) is add in power cost, so it’s actually much worse but we cannot predict that unless we assume today’s BTC/USD exchange rate. Also if we do that we would have to increase the value of the investment in scenario 2 by the same amount every month and add that to those 0.2608BTC, so you would always stay behind.
Now at that point in time (where you’ve reached 0.2608BTC), your miner is making next to nothing unless you look only at the most optimistic scenario where difficulty/ hashrate decrease, so your asset is worth next to nothing at that point as well. Good luck selling the miner at that point in time, once it becomes worthless to you, it is worthless to others as well. This is exactly why I'm making the case for selling S9 miners now instead of mining. People are not aware of the numbers presented above, they only look at what they would earn today (on those online calculators), and so they are willing to pay massive prices for miners available today, more than double what you pay for them from Bitmain. Money you can convert into BTC today! This is the opportunity today but it will not last and your miner will never make you that kind of BTC anyway, that's what the hashrate predictions show. |
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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 04:05:25 AM |
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But you can't base the full value of the miner on today's exchange rate alone, which is why these predictions don't make sense. You assume the difficulty will continue to rise, yet not the price of bitcoin. This prediction is made in an unrealistic vacuum that isn't applicable to real life, at least not the way that I'm understanding it.\
Yes you can, if you convert that $3000 into BTC TODAY and you hold from that point on in both scenarios you absolutely can. BTC/USD exchange rate is not relevant anymore because we're comparing BTC-BTC at that point. You can't because you won't know what the difficulty will do without knowing how BTC/USD is doing. The two are correlated, we just don't know how. It's like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg. Does the difficulty go up because BTC/USD is doing well, or is BTC/USD doing well because the difficulty is going up? You can't assume that the difficulty is going to just keep rising without BTC/USD rising with it, or people wouldn't keep plugging in their miners, as mining would no longer be profitable in terms of USD, which is what people use! You could have made the same spreadsheet and made the same predictions a year ago and said: "Look, the difficulty is predicted to keep rising, it would be better to just buy BTC and not a miner because a couple months from now, your miners won't be making anything". That wouldn't have worked then for the same reason it doesn't work now, because you're not assuming anything about BTC/USD! |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 04:23:40 AM |
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You can't because you won't know what the difficulty will do without knowing how BTC/USD is doing. The two are correlated, we just don't know how. It's like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg. Does the difficulty go up because BTC/USD is doing well, or is BTC/USD doing well because the difficulty is going up?
You can't assume that the difficulty is going to just keep rising without BTC/USD rising with it, or people wouldn't keep plugging in their miners, as mining would no longer be profitable. Yes BTC/USD and network hashrate are very likely correlated. But here's the thing, there is a massive lag between the numbers (caused by Bitmain mostly), so the enormous amount hashing power coming online now and in the next few months is a result of BTC/USD increase over the last 6 months. It could very well flatten out again once this all settles but what the spreadsheet shows is that you would need it to flatten out very, very, very, soon, like in the next month or two, even quicker than the most optimistic scenario presented in the spreadsheet, for an S9 to pay itself back and become profitable in 2018. And be serious, look at this chart: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/5y?c=m&g=15&t=aYou really think that is realistic? You could have made the same spreadsheet and made the same predictions a year ago and said: "Look, the difficulty is predicted to keep rising, it would be better to just buy BTC and not a miner because a couple months from now, your miners won't be making anything". That wouldn't have worked then for the same reason it doesn't work now, because you're not assuming anything about BTC/USD!
You are spot on. Up until very recently mining has never been profitable for most of the Western world, only where power is dead-cheap was it profitable but on average most of us were just breaking even or below the profit line. In the Western World it was always more of a hobby thing, you could always make more money investing directly into your favorite crypto. It's only because BTC value has increased so much over the last 6 months that all of the sudden an opportunity has presented itself for everyone to make money. But network hashrate is quickly catching up again, and BTC value is now staggering so it will probably even overshoot before bringing things back to balance. (meaning a period of profit for nobody at worst) |
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kenji
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January 18, 2018, 04:38:42 AM |
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You can't because you won't know what the difficulty will do without knowing how BTC/USD is doing. The two are correlated, we just don't know how. It's like asking which came first, the chicken or the egg. Does the difficulty go up because BTC/USD is doing well, or is BTC/USD doing well because the difficulty is going up?
You can't assume that the difficulty is going to just keep rising without BTC/USD rising with it, or people wouldn't keep plugging in their miners, as mining would no longer be profitable. Yes BTC/USD and network hashrate are very likely correlated. But here's the thing, there is a massive lag between the numbers (caused by Bitmain mostly), so the enormous amount hashing power coming online now and in the next few months is a result of BTC/USD increase over the last 6 months. It could very well flatten out again once this all settles but what the spreadsheet shows is that you would need it to flatten out very, very, very, soon, like in the next month or two, even quicker than the most optimistic scenario presented in the spreadsheet, for an S9 to pay itself back and become profitable in 2018. And be serious, look at this chart: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/5y?c=m&g=15&t=aYou really think that is realistic? You could have made the same spreadsheet and made the same predictions a year ago and said: "Look, the difficulty is predicted to keep rising, it would be better to just buy BTC and not a miner because a couple months from now, your miners won't be making anything". That wouldn't have worked then for the same reason it doesn't work now, because you're not assuming anything about BTC/USD!
You are spot on. Up until very recently mining has never been profitable for most of the Western world, only where power is dead-cheap was it profitable but on average most of us were just breaking even or below the profit line. In the Western World it was always more of a hobby thing, you could always make more money investing directly into your favorite crypto. It's only because BTC value has increased so much over the last 6 months that all of the sudden an opportunity has presented itself for everyone to make money. But network hashrate is quickly catching up again, and BTC value is now staggering so it will probably even overshoot before bringing things back to balance. (meaning a period of profit for nobody at worst) Sure, the past 8 months has seen a huge surge in price, but if you look at the difficulty, that has surged almost right along with it. I think you're right in that the recent surge in price has increased profits for miners, but not to the extreme that you make out. I think the recent spike in profit is going to drop back down to normal levels with these new S9's being released in the coming months. That's where our opinions differ. I think it's going to be to where the S9 is no longer going to be extremely profitable, just back down to where profits were before, which was normally profitable to start with. It's not like mining wasn't profitable 8 months ago before the price of bitcoin surged 1000%. I've been turning a profit mining for years, only recently has it become stupidly profitable, and of course we're all expecting that to go away. What we're not expecting is your prediction that our miners will be making nothing in a couple of months. |
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rizla.plus
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January 18, 2018, 04:46:04 AM |
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Sure, the past 8 months has seen a huge surge in price, but if you look at the difficulty, that has surged almost right along with it.
I think you're right in that the recent surge in price has increased profits for miners, but not to the extreme that you make out. I think the recent spike in profit is going to drop back down to normal levels with these new S9's being released in the coming months. That's where our opinions differ. I think it's going to be to where the S9 is no longer going to be extremely profitable, just back down to where profits were before, which was normally profitable to start with. It's not like mining wasn't profitable 8 months ago before the price of bitcoin surged 1000%. I've been turning a profit mining for years, only recently has it become stupidly profitable, and of course we're all expecting that to go away. What we're not expecting is your prediction that our miners will be making nothing in a couple of months.
I think I will leave it at that, I don't think my numbers will ever convince you so lets wait and see, and agree to disagree for now. Can I suggest one last thing? Download the spreadsheet if you haven't already done so, and set an alarm in your calendar for the 1st of March, I will do the same. Lets compare the hashrate/earnings forecast with what has actually happened at that point in time and see how far I was off. We can discuss further then perhaps? I'll be back on here :-) (Maybe in the mining speculation thread though, where this belongs) |
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The Demon Slick
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January 18, 2018, 08:54:22 AM |
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What if hashrate drops? Say China goes down. Or S. Korea. Just for the sake of argument.
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