Avalon batch [2] countdown!

[pikeadz]

I am mining with house money because I cashed out my initial investment a long time ago.  This is play money for me, icing on the cake.  I feel anyone who is so stressed about their Avalons arriving a little late that they are demanding updates from the owner is a little too emotional about all this.  You are a gambler, not an investor.  Never forget that.  You are 1 DDOS away from your calculated ROI being reduced to peanuts.  Exchange rate is everything, and what you should really be stressing over (if you must).  The level of emotion in here is mindblowing.  Did any of you invest before this, or just gamble?

All investment is a gamble. When I gamble or invest, I like to plan to maximise my retunr. I am emphatically not playing with play money. I'm investing real money.

As I said before, I'm not pissed or emotional or demanding anything from Yifu. Can you point to anything where I appear emotional? The current delivery schedule is well within my planned-for possibilities.

My point is simply:
1. If the delivery is late, it will have a significant impact on my investment, and
2. Many have made an actual investment. For us this is not play money.

My point is that you cannot and should not try to plan for a certain level of return to the point that you are upset if it doesn't materialize.  I am not going to sift through previous posts to see if it was you or someone else, but there are some definite feathers already ruffled over absolutely nothing.  I will just leave this here.  I hope it helps a few people here.  Best of luck anyway.

http://zenhabits.net/unknowing/

[1715352783]

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[1715352783]

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[1715352783]

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[jspielberg]

I believe my situation is similar to pikeadz --- I am pretty much using old BTC wins for my investing/gambling whatever.

I started mining with a couple of GPUs in early 2011 and stopped in 2012.  Kind of took a year break as I didn't feel like joining a pool (all my previous mining was solo), but came back when the recent run up started. I foolishly sold half my stash at ~ $45 in march, and pretty much the little remaining I have put into an Avalon B3 order.  Anyway, I am enjoying the excitement around ASICs and trying to keep some perspective about the whole thing.

The last month or so has been quite the ride.

[organofcorti]

I am mining with house money because I cashed out my initial investment a long time ago.  This is play money for me, icing on the cake.  I feel anyone who is so stressed about their Avalons arriving a little late that they are demanding updates from the owner is a little too emotional about all this.  You are a gambler, not an investor.  Never forget that.  You are 1 DDOS away from your calculated ROI being reduced to peanuts.  Exchange rate is everything, and what you should really be stressing over (if you must).  The level of emotion in here is mindblowing.  Did any of you invest before this, or just gamble?

All investment is a gamble. When I gamble or invest, I like to plan to maximise my retunr. I am emphatically not playing with play money. I'm investing real money.

As I said before, I'm not pissed or emotional or demanding anything from Yifu. Can you point to anything where I appear emotional? The current delivery schedule is well within my planned-for possibilities.

My point is simply:
1. If the delivery is late, it will have a significant impact on my investment, and
2. Many have made an actual investment. For us this is not play money.

My point is that you cannot and should not try to plan for a certain level of return to the point that you are upset if it doesn't materialize.  I am not going to sift through previous posts to see if it was you or someone else, but there are some definite feathers already ruffled over absolutely nothing.  I will just leave this here.  I hope it helps a few people here.  Best of luck anyway.

http://zenhabits.net/unknowing/

I absolutely agree with you. If you can't reconcile yourself with the fact that your purchase may never appear, then you're approaching this the wrong way. However being (unemotionally) concerned about your investment is a different matter.

The tenor of the last few pages is that there is no point even making plans, and I think that either indicates an inability to plan, or the fact that (as in your case) your investment is not a significant business venture.

I think that for most people who are treating mining as a business, an actual business plan is important.

[alexuk]

any updates on shipping?

[Wayne_Chang]

At least I haven't got any information although I am in China.

[Rampion]

As long as you make about $2000 from each machine, it's a good investment. Further, bitching to Avalon won't make them ship faster. Perhaps Yifu might delay your machines just to troll you, who knows.

No, I'd consider that a complete failure as an investment.  I paid 77 coins per batch 2 machine I ordered.  If I do not earn 77BTC back (per machine) in a reasonable time frame, then it was a losing investment.

Heh. I did the smart thing and pegged it to USD. As long as I get it back and then some, I'm golden.

Define reasonable time frame.
A realistic ROI on investments IRL is 5-10% yearly, at best.

Not on BTC mining investments. Due to difficulty increases, if your device doesn't pay for itself in the first year it never will. Probably the first 6 months, TBH. Resale value will be next to nothing.

This. Hopefully now that BFL is shipping we will have some batch #4 Avalons with a competitive price, let's say 25BTC for 45GHs and 50BTC for 90GHs. That would ROI in 30 days at 27 million difficulty, which I think is the minimum diff. we will see when batch #4 Avalons start to arrive to customers hands.

[rudrigorc2]

As long as you make about $2000 from each machine, it's a good investment. Further, bitching to Avalon won't make them ship faster. Perhaps Yifu might delay your machines just to troll you, who knows.

No, I'd consider that a complete failure as an investment.  I paid 77 coins per batch 2 machine I ordered.  If I do not earn 77BTC back (per machine) in a reasonable time frame, then it was a losing investment.

Heh. I did the smart thing and pegged it to USD. As long as I get it back and then some, I'm golden.

Define reasonable time frame.
A realistic ROI on investments IRL is 5-10% yearly, at best.

Not on BTC mining investments. Due to difficulty increases, if your device doesn't pay for itself in the first year it never will. Probably the first 6 months, TBH. Resale value will be next to nothing.

This. Hopefully now that BFL is shipping we will have some batch #4 Avalons with a competitive price, let's say 25BTC for 45GHs and 50BTC for 90GHs. That would ROI in 30 days at 27 million difficulty, which I think is the minimum diff. we will see when batch #4 Avalons start to arrive to customers hands.

We can start talking about batch 4 after batch 2 and 3 gets delivered. And Looks like the batch3 with ROI of 30 days at diff 10.000.000 is already far away from reality.

[Elokane]

http://mineforeman.com/2013/04/23/butterfly-labs-ship-jalapenos-asic-bitcoin-miners-to-customers/

Butterfly Labs ship Jalapeños ASIC Bitcoin miners to customers

[creativex]

http://mineforeman.com/2013/04/23/butterfly-labs-ship-jalapenos-asic-bitcoin-miners-to-customers/

Butterfly Labs ship Jalapeños ASIC Bitcoin miners to customers

WOW. Can't even imagine how p1ssed single sc and minirig customers that pre-ordered in June of 2012 are right now. Now they get to compete with people that ordered from the same company after they did and they still don't have a shipping date. What happened to the silly 1/3 shipping plan I read about for months? Right out the window?

[Bowjob]

It seems to me that Avalon 2 is late.. Probably what happened is Avalon is installing their SMT and will ship Batch 2 and 3 simultaneously.

[jspielberg]

I imagine they will be built in order and shipped back to back.  I would be very surprised if any batch 3 orders end up shipping before batch 2.

[Frequency]

I imagine they will be built in order and shipped back to back.  I would be very surprised if any batch 3 orders end up shipping before batch 2.

Was batch 2 only option for 66gh / 3unit version???

Batch 3 was 66gh /3units and 85gh/4units option but also  4 or 5 times more  expensive

I am a b3 customer and would be supprised if both batches got shipped at ones...but who knows...!!

[cedivad]

Batch 3 was 66gh /3units and 85gh/4units option but also  4 or 5 times more  expensive

BTC side, it wasn't. And you calculate the return of a btc miner in btc. Don't you?

It seems to me that Avalon 2 is late.. Probably what happened is Avalon is installing their SMT and will ship Batch 2 and 3 simultaneously.

Seriously? God, your powers of observation are surprising!

I imagine they will be built in order and shipped back to back.  I would be very surprised if any batch 3 orders end up shipping before batch 2.

That's another interesting point of view, thanks for sharing!

[creativex]

I imagine they will be built in order and shipped back to back.  I would be very surprised if any batch 3 orders end up shipping before batch 2.

Was batch 2 only option for 66gh / 3unit version???

Batch 3 was 66gh /3units and 85gh/4units option but also  4 or 5 times more  expensive

I am a b3 customer and would be supprised if both batches got shipped at ones...but who knows...!!

I paid only .046BTC/Gh more for Avalon 3 than Avalon 2. The price was nearly identical for those that managed to order on 2/2 & 2/3, it was only later when BTC/USD rose sharply that Avalon 2 appeared cheaper. This only happened because of walletbit's fail.

[Elokane]

I didn't buy more BTC to replace those I spent for the Avalons solely because of Walletbit's delayed confirmation. I didn't know whether my payment actually counted towards the miners (or if it even existed) and it prevented me from getting those again for 20$. By the time they bothered communicating with me the price increased a few times over.

THANKS WALLETBIT!

[kaerf]

ASICMINER closes on sale last week and a few days later units are delivered.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.msg1922054#msg1922054

Avalon closes sale...takes vacation 

[cedivad]

ASICMINER closes on sale last week and a few days later units are delivered.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.msg1922054#msg1922054

Avalon closes sale...takes vacation  

Thanks for the much needed laugh 

[creativex]

ASICMINER closes on sale last week and a few days later units are delivered.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.msg1922054#msg1922054

Avalon closes sale...takes vacation 

For the price those guys paid for the ASICMiner blades...I'll wait for my Avalons tyvm. :p

[jermwerty]

Waiting for Avalon Batch #2 is like riding in a car where every second you get closer to your destination you have to pee that much more....

Totally sucks while its happening but the relief at the end will be worth it!


-->>> countdown to B#2 continues!

[Bowjob]

What bothered me was Batch 1 "shipped" on January 20th.... fill in the rest. Without CNY, realistically we will start seeing batch 2s at the end of May. Timeline: April 30th, SMT line finished. 1st week of May: Build 300 units. 2nd week: last 300 units. 3rd week: Ship all units, takes 1 week to reach customers.