Avalon batch [2] countdown!

[josh_nc]

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.



I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

[1715348660]

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[shmadz]

@ Bowjob: sorry to hear of your problems. Without knowing the location and condition/details of your parents house it is difficult to know what your best course of action might be.

(my parents are in a similar position, with a large amount still owing on their property, and approaching retirement (and the fixed "income" that entails) luckily for us, their house has not dropped in value, (yet) and they are doing massive renovations to try to increase value before they sell and move into something more modest)

best of luck, and "may your avalons arrive soon and hash promptly" 

[shbtc]

If they did mine with them before shipping (which I doubt slightly), I don't see a blatant breach of contract. Those units will be leaving the network anyway. I think the month delay is more serious, which if you compare to BFL is almost laughable.

Anyway, good luck to us all batch2-ers! Hoping for the best.

BTW, is anyone else sweating this miners "being a money-transmitter" business? I have a pretty face and wouldn't fare well in the pen.

You're only a MSB if you transact more than $1,000 in a day.  You can mine all you want in bitcoins.  You can even convert $999 a day and you won't be a MSB.  That is an amount most people should be able to live off of.  Mining coins is not a transaction unless you were to receive the proceeds in dollars.  Stay in bitcoin and you will be fine.

Disclaimer:  I am not a lawyer and this is not legal advice.  You can read the official version here though:  http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/definitions/msb.html

If I'm wrong, I have an ugly face so perhaps I would do quite well in the pen.

I believe a "money transmitter" is different than a MSB.  You can be a transmitter without being an MSB so you still have to follow the transmitter rules ... I think.

FinCEN’s regulations, as amended, define the term “money transmitter” to
include a person that provides money transmission services, or any other person engaged
in the transfer of funds. The term “money transmission services” means the acceptance
of currency, funds, or other value that substitutes for currency from one person AND the
transmission of currency, funds, or other value that substitutes for currency to another
location or person by any means.3
The regulations also stipulate that whether a person is
a money transmitter is a matter of facts and circumstances, and enumerates business
models where a person’s activities would not make such person a money transmitter.
Generally, the acceptance and transmission of funds only integral to the sale of goods or
the provision of services, other than money transmission services, will not cause the
person that is accepting and transmitting the funds to be a money transmitter.”4

http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/pdf/FIN-2012-R004.pdf

I'm no lawyer but I think it could be easily argued that these miners don't transmit money, only verify financial transactions. But with this Mt. Gox investigation, there's no telling what they'll do next. Fortunately for us, this is not a fight the gov can win.

[greaterninja]

@ Bowjob: sorry to hear of your problems. Without knowing the location and condition/details of your parents house it is difficult to know what your best course of action might be.

(my parents are in a similar position, with a large amount still owing on their property, and approaching retirement (and the fixed "income" that entails) luckily for us, their house has not dropped in value, (yet) and they are doing massive renovations to try to increase value before they sell and move into something more modest)

best of luck, and "may your avalons arrive soon and hash promptly" 

if his parents paid 500k, maybe they should just walk away from the house...hate to say it but many people in north america buy houses they cannot afford.  they live above their means.

[organofcorti]

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.



I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

No, that's variance. The estimate you link to is affected by variance significantly. Try using the 14 day estimate on bitcoin.sipa.be. I also make an estimate for my own uses:

From both sources it's pretty obvious that a 25Ghps drop in three days is incorrect, or at least extremely unlikely.

[cosurgi]

Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?

sunday @1:30p

http://www.bitcoin2013.com/uploads/1/4/9/4/14946598/bitcoin_2013_schedule_updated_5-8-13.pdf

That's today!

[josh_nc]

Would anyone have a factual explanation for the approx. 25 THash/sec recent drop? It is the equivalent of some 380 avalons stopping mining.



I'm wondering if most of the FPGA miners have wrapped it up... or could it be Avalon mining with our rigs before re-starting deliveries (the timing matches)?

There is no 25 Ghps drop in hashrate.

~101 THash/sec down to ~76 THash/sec between May 13 and May 16. That's the ~25 THash/sec drop.

No, that's variance. The estimate you link to is affected by variance significantly. Try using the 14 day estimate on bitcoin.sipa.be. I also make an estimate for my own uses:

From both sources it's pretty obvious that a 25Ghps drop in three days is incorrect, or at least extremely unlikely.

Yes, I see what you mean. There are several peaks and valleys in any given month if you look at it on a day-to-day. I wonder what causes them... Likely the FPGAs going on and off. If all you had were ASICs I'd imagine people would not be turning them off as much. So, as time goes by and more ASICs come online this variance should reduce significantly, wouldn't you agree?

[organofcorti]

[ ... ]
Yes, I see what you mean. There are several peaks and valleys in any given month if you look at it on a day-to-day. I wonder what causes them... Likely the FPGAs going on and off.

No. The problem is that we don't actually know what the hashrate is, we can only estimate it. There are various methods this can be done, but all of them are affected by "luck". You can estimate hashrate from the number of blocks solved in a given (constant) period of time, or from the amount of time it takes to solve a given number of blocks. Either way this result varies significantly - the 10 minute hashrate varies from 0 Thps to a few hundred 0 Thps. |There's no way to determine the actual hashrate from the chart you posted, unfortunately - it's just affect too much by "luck".

If all you had were ASICs I'd imagine people would not be turning them off as much. So, as time goes by and more ASICs come online this variance should reduce significantly, wouldn't you agree?

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

[abracadabra]

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

• non-homogenous
• Poisson processes
• geometric distribution
• Variance

 

[organofcorti]

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

• non-homogenous
• Poisson processes
• geometric distribution
• Variance

 

Dammit! You caught me out. I was of course pulling all those words out of my butt

[phoenikx]

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

[Bowjob]

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

You think that's abracadabra.. try this. http://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~motizuki/Inter-universal%20Teichmuller%20Theory%20II.pdf

Apparently he could be Satoshi.

[abracadabra]

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

You think that's abracadabra.. try this. http://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~motizuki/Inter-universal%20Teichmuller%20Theory%20II.pdf

Apparently he could be Satoshi.

My brain started hurting just reading the title on that thing.

[Bowjob]

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

You think that's abracadabra.. try this. http://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~motizuki/Inter-universal%20Teichmuller%20Theory%20II.pdf

Apparently he could be Satoshi.

My brain started hurting just reading the title on that thing.

It's actually a 4 part series; the one I linked is part 2. Apparently no one could really understand it either.

[jmsanto123]

It all sounds like abracadabra to me...... 

You think that's abracadabra.. try this. http://www.kurims.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~motizuki/Inter-universal%20Teichmuller%20Theory%20II.pdf

Apparently he could be Satoshi.

OMG (mathematics)     

[josh_nc]

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

• non-homogenous
• Poisson processes
• geometric distribution
• Variance

 

Dammit! You caught me out. I was of course pulling all those words out of my butt

So, would you say the approach below would be a better way to determine the hash rate?
This of course takes into account the maximum likelihood. L() is in fact the likelihood function. I've always been terrible with statistical models but this one may give you a more coherent distribution than Poisson's which smells really fishy wink wink



 

[organofcorti]

L(\theta|X,Y) = \prod_{i=1}^m \frac{e^{y_i \theta' x_i} e^{-e^{\theta' x_i}}}{y_i!}

 

I don't read mathjax or laTeX or whatever - mind rephrasing in something both I and SMF understand?

[josh_nc]

Corrected above.

Mind you this can always be skewed by tweaking with localization functors and realified global structures... but I wouldn't advise this method as it is prone to cause too much bias from the mean deviation.  

[ProfMac]

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

• non-homogenous
• Poisson processes
• geometric distribution
• Variance

 

Is there any reason you chose the most extreme values in the red graph, when you also had the choice of some more moderate values in the green graph, when you were trying to understand what was happening?

[organofcorti]

Again, no. Sorry! This is all very tricky and I suggest you read about non-homogenous Poisson processes and the geometric distribution. Variance will increase as the hashrate increases, but it will remain a nearly constant proportion of the hashrate.

Now you're just throwing crazy words out there left and right! Do you realize how much time it would take someone to google all these words?

• non-homogenous
• Poisson processes
• geometric distribution
• Variance

 

Is there any reason you chose the most extreme values in the red graph, when you also had the choice of some more moderate values in the green graph, when you were trying to understand what was happening?

Neither of them should be used. Did you quote the wrong person?