Avalon batch [2] countdown!

[kano]

I, for one, would appreciate Kano posting any evidence (even circumstantial) that would lead one to believe that Avalon has been mining with the Batch II units that they do not own.  
As to how Yifu spends his own money, I do not care.   If someone is using (or stealing) my money, then I do care and will take action.  
So Kano, come on, prove that you are not just a scorned troll and post something with meat.

I forgot about this but there is another possibility for why the avalons have been delayed and don't include them just mining with our units and making a killing and thats the phenominon known as "because china"

they sounded pretty adamant that they were shipping 20 out immediately to test shipping and the rest would start "next week".   because china applies to things that are two weeks away not to 20 units that are there and ready to ship.
I want Kano to reply though.   He has made the accusations, so I want him to show some reason to believe him

Well
Firstly regarding "because china", I presume most know, but they are actually shipping them in a very problematic manner
That's the truth of the first batch problems (currently ngzhang's last post in the forum over 5 weeks ago)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163795.msg1722018#msg1722018

...
why we use such a screwed work flow?

1, save shipment cost.
2, if we go to DHL directly, they didn't accept this device, there is PSU and FANs in it, which is contraband. only these agent can send them out by doing some bribery work. if we tell them we are not satisfied, they simply ask us to deal with DHL ourself instead.

fuck

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? )

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

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[Raize]

No news to add to my thread in my signature as well. I'm relatively certain that I was one of the first trade-ins cause I shipped them back and they were signed for on the Friday after the Monday when we were told to ship them back in.

I'm not gonna lie. I'm regretting having sent something that was making me money for four lost weeks of mining profits.

It would seem to me we're owed some sort of notification or something, but whatever, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

As ngzhang once said, "BFL's business flow is: announce dreamlike specs -> taking pre-orders -> find people to development -> if succeed, release and shipment. if fail, run. BFL sell products at super low price because their customer take all risks."

My response would be, "Avalon's business flow is: deliver promised ASICs from first batch -> take two new batches of pre-orders -> spend one month waiting -> ask customers to send in FPGAs -> wait one more month. Avalon bases price on one month ROI because customer takes all risks."

I'm more than happy to work with Avalon, but they should not have asked us to send in our trade-ins one month prior to shipping, IMHO. I suppose this is a difference between Eastern culture and Western culture. In China, people owe their entire lives to their employer. Whenever there is a suicide at a Foxconn plant, it speaks ill of the employer. That's why you hear about that in the news coming out of Asia. In the US, no one commits suicide, because employers here are far too lax, and the unions have all the control. In China, the company has control, and their customers know it and respect them for allowing them to have the product. This seems so contrary to all of Western civilization, but it's just how business is done.

I don't fault the Avalon team or BitSyncom for respecting their employees over their customers, it's just really hard to adapt to this as someone living in the West.

Eagerly awaiting my chance to pay the difference for my Icarus trade-in towards a new Avalon...

[tempt]

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.

[kano]

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.

Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

[tempt]

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.

Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.

[Qbert]

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.

Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.

I believe he is implying that avalon is mining with customers' units.  Which would not surprise me at all, seeing as several customers of batch one complained that their units appeared used and had fans coated in dust. I believe that the community consensus is that mining with customers' unit on the network is unethical and I would venture a guess that it is tantamount to theft.

[fcmatt]

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

ASICMINER didnt just add 4TH, they are at 19TH or sth.

Yes I mentioned that.
(from the graph ASICMINER has 1TH in there)

So what are you implying? Maybe avalon just ships when all batch 2 units are build and running.

I believe he is implying that avalon is mining with customers' units.  Which would not surprise me at all, seeing as several customers of batch one complained that their units appeared used and had fans coated in dust. I believe that the community consensus is that mining with customers' unit on the network is unethical and I would venture a guess that it is tantamount to theft.

But they clearly stated you are not customers. You are whiney miners who want something for nothing. Suck it up.
That is the main reason I never pulled the trigger on any batches with them. I just could not send my money to people
who had such a crappy attitude and service.

In the end I lost out due to not ordering batch #1 (i think) but the amount of stress saved was worth it. Sometimes trying
to make a few bucks is not worth the bother when you have to place all the trust on people who do not care about you
as a customer.

[Minor Miner]

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? )

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

[tempt]

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? )

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.

[cedivad]

They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.

[tempt]

They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.

Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).

[cedivad]

They where already millionaires (batch 3/chips). There was no need to scam us and force their investors to lose money.

Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).

Batch 2 was paid more than 75btc so I don't see how we should not be "crying"... Your 1 year estimates are fairly optimistic. I should not judge them for wanting to have more than a miserable million? Really?
We will see who was right.

[creativex]

Sure, but once you got your first million you want more. Dont judge them. Also, our ROI will be in the worst case something about 1year(talking about batch 3, batch 2 has no reason to cry at all).

The idea that batch 2 was cheap is not correct. Early batch 2 orders(2/2 - 2/3) paid the same for their purchases as batch 3 orders did. The rapidly rising exchange rate would've had little effect on batch 2 pricing if a competent payment processor had been employed, but that wasn't the case. As a result later batch 2 orders got a 33%+ discount. Early batch 2 customers have every right to complain about these delays.

[kaerf]

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? )

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.

thank you thank you thank you for not taking a dump in my mouth. you're too kind.

[rudrigorc2]

Now again Back in January they implied they could make 12 devices a day
They also clearly stated how good their original release date was
They also stated delivery dates for Batch #2

What has gone wrong?

They suddenly can't make the chips they made before?
They didn't get almost $2mil from batch #2 and batch #3?
Everyone making the first batch quit or was fired?
Capacitors are scarce in China?

While I'm at it I'll work on a graph: (click for full size)


Anyone feel free to make some more detailed comments about the above graph however,

1) From Avalon Shipping to Network reaching 48TH/s (earliest Avalon could have added 20TH/s + Asicminers extra 4TH/s) is approx 23-Mar
That assumes there is NO OTHER addition to the network while the price of BTC continued to climb slowly ...

So what is the 26THs rise from then (23-Mar) to 25-April
Clearly a % at least of people coming on board with GPUs due to the price - but could 2xmore people have joined BTC in that month with GPUs than existed in the 2 years before that?

Of course the network value for 'today' at 83GH/s is in question - and wont be considered reliable probably for another week at least - but that would actually make one wonder how ASICMINER managed to add 14TH/s yet the network only went up 9TH/s (maybe they were mining early also? )

FYI the network graph is of course from: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
P.S. Yes I used the 14 day window - the others are simply way too unreliable

I think is a very well thought out and argued position.   Personally, I believe Kano and I think that Yifu's and Zhang's muteness on these delays make the probability that they are mining much higher.   I do not want to believe that since that would mean that all the values and virtues that Avalon kept preaching were just lies (that would be pretty devastating to find out).
YIFU or Dr. Zhang, I think after one month we deserve your reply to the above and assurance that this is not true.

Money changes people. It is nothing to blame them for. Just try to think of yourself in that position, 1 year earlier just a regular student with some bitcoins, right now you are a millionair on paper and can make some million a month by simply delaying a product. This is a once in a lifetime chance for you.

Better be thankful that they dont scam us.

IMHO, this is one hell of a short shighted point of view. why make money while burn you reputation with the people that made you rich? the delay maybe because  another uncontrolable forces. if you got the skills and resources that allow you to live confortably, with the right mindset the future can be much more brighter than one account full of money.

[edgar]

who exactly is responsible for shipping delays?

i have no issue with things being slow if there is a valid reason,  but if that reason is merely so someone can mine as much as they can until the difficulty makes it almost not worth mining....

i hear these 'names' time and again but i dont even know if they are real names, real people or anything...

when new projects are announced we see the community dig deep and expose what is what and who is who no matter how much hiding and distorting they do, is this not possible with the receivers of millions of usd worth of btc?

do any of you buyers really want to pay another penny towards what could well be redundant tech by the time it arrives?

[el_rlee]

who exactly is responsible for shipping delays?

It is not Avalon's primary goal to deliver batch 2 as fast as possible, so they didn't outsource pretty much anything I guess and decided to do that on their own production line. Of course ramping up production always means delay and trouble.

[cosurgi]

Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?

[kaerf]

Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?

sunday @1:30p

http://www.bitcoin2013.com/uploads/1/4/9/4/14946598/bitcoin_2013_schedule_updated_5-8-13.pdf

[cosurgi]

Yifu's speaking at bitcoin 2013 in a week. We could lay out the welcome mat for him...

When exactly?

sunday @1:30p

http://www.bitcoin2013.com/uploads/1/4/9/4/14946598/bitcoin_2013_schedule_updated_5-8-13.pdf

Someone please ask him if he will give the tracking numbers! Nobody wants to have his package stolen or lost.