Avalon batch [2] countdown!

[creativex]

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

That calculator rules...
based on a 1.5month delivery time till most batch 2 are delivered, current price, & diff increase of 1.3%/day over next 12 months
ROI is 5 days
Profit is nearly 12k USD

 shoulda sold my unit when people offered 30k for it =P
heres to hoping price of btc goes up =)

Based on 2.5month delivery for batch 3, cost of hardware 7200$, hashrate 90gh - ROI 17 days, profit is 6300$ in 12months

Those USB miners people are gobbling up... ROI is never =P, they would be out 130$ given market conditions remain same.

Very interesting projections.
I think the avy batch 2 has the most projected profit behind 1.5TH BFL product - if its even 1.5TH anymore, somewhere I read they downgraded it to 500GH for future orders...

my current 3300mh/s GPU setup which already reached roi long ago, still has bout 1100$ of profit projected for 12 months, by comparison.

Nice analysis GT. Yeah those USB miners are cute, but the pricetag is whack. Great deal for ASICMiner shareholders and those that want stocking stuffers(in June?), but no so great if you want to mine for profit.

Come on Avalon...get those rigs outtha door mang!

[1715288277]

1715288277

[1715288277]

1715288277

[onealfa]

http://www.coinish.com/calc/#

That calculator rules...

     Wow, thanks for the great link, GenTarkin!
I agree,  i made some wrong assumptions before.
If we expect difficulty  to grow as in last 4 month, then it makes 85x times increase per year, or +8.92% per week, or +1.228% per day.
Avalon was really $1500, not 75 BTC, and hardly one pays for power more then myself  - $0.19/kWh
If AVALON arrives in 2 month, AUG-1, then we may have 25 mln dif. With these corrections we have
https://i.imgur.com/KIsyGdj.png
And these 2 calculators show a surprisingly good match.
Enjoy !

[SolarSilver]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

[GenTarkin]

nice, although the increase in diff in coming months will more be like a curve rather than linear... but if I had to guess, at some point it will taper off to a less increase so , one could say they will eventually average each other out. Meaning less profit toward the beginning .. and smoother over time.

[GenTarkin]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

All depends on how you count your pennies man! Sure, I paid 55btc for avy batch 2... Ill probably make that back, but in USD equivalent Ill for sure make it back if I cash that out at appropriate time =P

[btcsql]

Still nothing with regards to my batch 2.

[creativex]

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases.  I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining. <sigh> <end rant>

[btcsql]

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases.  I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining. <sigh> <end rant>

In the same boat as you friend, it is really something...

[creativex]

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

I am keeping track of some Avalon purchases.  I update it every day or two:

http://cointext.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-an-example/

Awesome for you. Congrats.

For me I'm struggling to not be annoyed. I attempted to order that day(Feb 2), but I only had two hours with which to place an order. Walletbit's incredible incompetence + having to go to work foiled my plans. On Feb 3 I was successful...I think, though I've never received confirmation of anything batch 2 related from Avalon themselves(6 unanswered tickets). Here you've been mining with gear you ordered hours ahead of me for nearly two weeks. Others that ordered days after I did are also mining. <sigh> <end rant>

In the same boat as you friend, it is really something...

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

[pikeadz]

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

Wait what?  Are you saying they are mixing batch 3s with 2s?  I wish this is true, as I am b3, but I am pretty sure batch 3 is shipping after 2 is complete.  Yifu said this in the video that was posted.

[creativex]

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

Wait what?  Are you saying they are mixing batch 3s with 2s?  I wish this is true, as I am b3, but I am pretty sure batch 3 is shipping after 2 is complete.  Yifu said this in the video that was posted.

I'm merely trying to find some pattern to their selection of "chosen people" to ship products to first and when. As batch 2 has been delayed to the point that it's overlapping batch 3's original shipping date and shipping from China to the rest of the globe is expensive it's not unreasonable to think they'd try to save time and money by combining orders. As I said, this does not seem to be the case, and I still have no idea whatsoever what they're looking at when they determine who to ship to and when.

[RoadStress]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC. Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

[BenTuras]

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC. Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

Batch 2.1, February 2/3 was around 76.5 BTC
Batch 2.2, February 18 was around 56.8 BTC

[pikeadz]

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

Wait what?  Are you saying they are mixing batch 3s with 2s?  I wish this is true, as I am b3, but I am pretty sure batch 3 is shipping after 2 is complete.  Yifu said this in the video that was posted.

I'm merely trying to find some pattern to their selection of "chosen people" to ship products to first and when. As batch 2 has been delayed to the point that it's overlapping batch 3's original shipping date and shipping from China to the rest of the globe is expensive it's not unreasonable to think they'd try to save time and money by combining orders. As I said, this does not seem to be the case, and I still have no idea whatsoever what they're looking at when they determine who to ship to and when.

I guess I will start checking my store account soon then.  If they are shipping problematic (aka walletbit) orders late, maybe they will start shipping batch 3 before those.  Sucks for those customers but it makes sense from a production/shipping standpoint if you have units to ship but each one takes forever to figure out payment details.  As the car dealers say, you gotta move the metal.

[creativex]

First I thought perhaps they(Avalon) decided to simply combine batches 2 & 3. IOW perhaps I screwed myself by ordering from batch 3 as well and they'll ship together, but according to the link HELP.org posted he too ordered from batch 3. Now I think they just toss darts at a board or draw lots to determine who to ship to and when.

Wait what?  Are you saying they are mixing batch 3s with 2s?  I wish this is true, as I am b3, but I am pretty sure batch 3 is shipping after 2 is complete.  Yifu said this in the video that was posted.

I'm merely trying to find some pattern to their selection of "chosen people" to ship products to first and when. As batch 2 has been delayed to the point that it's overlapping batch 3's original shipping date and shipping from China to the rest of the globe is expensive it's not unreasonable to think they'd try to save time and money by combining orders. As I said, this does not seem to be the case, and I still have no idea whatsoever what they're looking at when they determine who to ship to and when.

If they are shipping problematic (aka walletbit) orders late, maybe they will start shipping batch 3 before those.  Sucks for those customers but it makes sense from a production/shipping standpoint if you have units to ship but each one takes forever to figure out payment details.  As the car dealers say, you gotta move the metal.

The problem is that both batch 2.1 and batch 3 customers paid significantly more(in terms of BTC) for their Avalons than batch 2.2 customers did. This situation exists only because walletbit(allegedly a payment processor) was unable to process payments with any degree of success on Feb 2 & 3. Avalon has had months to sort out these problems but has apparently chosen not to do so.

[SolarSilver]

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC.

Obviously you were not one of the early birds that jumped as lemmings on the first wave of batch #2 orders

You also did not have to deal with Walletbit at their shiny best...

Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

First of all, you are only getting today BTC 2.3 per machine. The BTC 2.8 you quote is obsolete due to rising difficulty. The next jump is projected to be 9%. Up.

The revenue curve you'll get will drop down to the X-axis really quick if ASICminer keeps shipping blades and USB sticks. Perhaps even flatter if BFL gets their act together. And by July/August a lot of new (cloned) open source projects will hit the road making this a very interesting summer

If you integrate the accumulated BTC under that curve, you must realize that even if you mine until eternity, the total surface is limited and if you paid too much BTC up front, you will never be able to recoup your investment. Even after a year. Or longer.

The later you start plotting your curve (earning BTC), the less likely you'll be able to ever earn back your investment.

Do you even run a real business?

[cryptograd]

Batch 2 was paid 75 btc. Care to share your genius?

Grab your calculator, and put it in your trash ! 

Let's see one of the worst scenarios:
75 BTC on FEBR-18 was x $27 = i.e.  $2025
Lets say we will not see our batch #2 ASIC's for another 2 month, and by 1 AUG difficulty will rose more then double, to the whopping 30 mln
Then, say your electricity is the most expensive of all of us, $0.25 /kwh
Finally, lets assume the terribly bad Profitability decline per year - 0.2 (would you believe this???)
Want see what we got?    after 6 month of mining >>>  https://i.imgur.com/eZSjr1i.png
& Still FAR FAR from negative ROI 's
Unless the http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ calculator is a junk as well.
But I love it !

If you paid through walletbit(the only available option) on Feb 18th, Avalon charged your account exactly $1,500.00 USD, meaning 56 BTC (the exact walue of $1,500.00 USD on feb 18th) was transferred from your account to Avalon.

lulz at the baseless speculating

[cedivad]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC. Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

I'm tired of people like you...

[rudrigorc2]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC. Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

I'm tired of people like you...

Batch two first day was 75 bitcoin, the bitcoin was 20 USD at the time.  Walletbit presented a failure system, they postponed for two weeks, price raised a little bit, people from second wave orders pay less bitcoin. And now guess what? I read somewhere, first come first serve but buyers from the first day are not getting the machines first,

[cedivad]

Batch 2 was exactly 1500$! Batch 3 was 75 btc!

Please stop counting in USD... We all count in BTC as we invested BTC.

If you invested BTC 76.2 for a batch #2 machine, you need to be able to generate those BTC 76.2 back,
otherwise you don't break even.

It does not matter what the underlying USD exchange rate is, unless for those who need to pay their electricity bills

If you want to see the exact prices people paid for each batch, check my earlier post

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140539.msg1615368#msg1615368

Right now you can mine ~2.8 bitcoins per day with a Batch 2 Avalon. Now you tell me how will the roi be negative please.

With more and more ASIC coming online, those 2.8 BTC /day will dwindle to fractions of that, thus making it harder and harder to catch up with those BTC 76.2

See the trend?

But you didn't invest 76.2 BTC for a batch #2!!! Why do you people keep saying that? You invested around 55 BTC. Considering that you mine ~2.8 BTC per day then you need less than one month to breakeven. Even at 75 BTC you still breakeven in one month. So why are we talking about getting a roi of 100% in less than 1 year (like a real business)

I'm tired of people like you...

Batch two first day was 75 bitcoin, the bitcoin was 20 USD at the time.  Walletbit presented a failure system, they postponed for two weeks, price raised a little bit, people from second wave orders pay less bitcoin. And now guess what? I read somewhere, first come first serve but buyers from the first day are not getting the machines first,

That is because Avalon is trolling us...
Anyway, I see many Feb 3 and Feb 17 orders delivered, but not many Feb 2/Feb 18. Why is that? I remember that during the 17 of Feb there where 5 units that you could order from the shop, to test it I suppose...