Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying  ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? -  naaaaah"  

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

[ShroomsKit]

This whole silly auction thing reminds me of last summer when the sale of Satoshi Dice led to a good chunk of coins (126k?) being paid out to shareholders.

Some fools thought they would all hit the exchanges and sink the price, leading to an immediate flash crash from $98 down to $86. Even though there was no appreciable impact of the payout the next day (prices actually rose), it took over a week to recover.

It seems the kind of people who held shares in SD were also the kind of people to hold their bitcoins, actual Bitcoin people and not just traders. Surprise, surprise.

When the list of bidders in the auction was leaked it should have been fairly obvious that they probably weren't going to immediately sell them, let alone at exchanges.

The whole thing was a non-issue.

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

[empowering]

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying  ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? -  naaaaah"  

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

Sarcasm?

  fair play.

[trepper]

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

[aminorex]

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

Rational discounting leads to a valuation scenario which renders anything but buying at the maximum holding level questionable at best.  For that reason, the emotional explanation of the bull case seems irrelevant.

I know I should expect FUD factors at random intervals, since that is history, but it is very hard to see how btc has not overcome all of the major threats at this point, save one or two in reserve.  (Fungibility being one that seems inevitable to me, but not yet.  It should show signs in the media before it becomes a price issue.)  Those items aside, that leaves only the adoption rate in question.

[ShroomsKit]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

[aminorex]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Or, the non-event this week may have immunized the market, inured it against such concerns.

[keithers]

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

"Oh my god!  It even has a watermark"

[Raystonn]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Won't happen.  Seized foreign currencies are immediately turned to USD on an approved exchange and sent to the Treasury.  By the time this court case is over there will be an approved Bitcoin exchange, and more than enough liquidity to absorb the coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

[abercrombie]

Alex Water is supposed to bid "live on air" at 3pm on Bloomberg...  2:20

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/u-s-to-auction-17-4m-cache-of-bitcoins-KXmFXKwlTrmpruPRBIPf5w.html

[N12]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

[TERA]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

[aminorex]

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Not over one year though.

[Raystonn]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Excellent find.  This is very comprehensive.  Great job Blitz.

[aminorex]

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Thanks, very relevant.  It includes a lot I intentionally do not, and suggests some I didn't think of.  I'm focused on a peculiar sort of risk, the risk of a "bitcoin is dead" consensus.  After feedback I will try to collate and update the table.

[MadGhost]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

quite detailed study , it will take me some time to understand it .Thanks for the link.

[elebit]

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Those things takes time. It has taken five years for Bitcoin to be where it is now.

Even if something so insanely smart so it is to Bitcoin what Bitcoin was to whatever was before it (e-Gold?), you probably have five years of trading between Bitcoin and the new hotness before it could possibly be "dead" in any way.

And some people are going to be early adopters, trade in their Bitcoins the first few years (and any new cryptocurrency WILL be denominated in Bitcoin the first few years, that is completely and utterly irreversible) and make a fortune. And there will be discussions again how be new currency favors early adopters and is unfair. History will repeat itself in every way.

But before that there's going to be thousands upon thousands of scamcoins which do not improve state of the art in any way and will ultimately be worthless. If you do not realise the new hotness before anyone else and move with the average pack, you will still be able to trade your Bitcoins pretty much 1:1. Roughly.

This is the one future prediction I can and will make of which I believe to be absolutely certain.

[kireinaha]

This was supposed to be the big one. Our "Silk Road Event" from 2013... the cataylst to the new ATH. So many people have been claiming that these coins will sell for a premium and catapult the market upward. So if it doesn't happen, then I know who's full of shit and who's worth listening to  

Hell I'm a perma-bull, and even I don't think this.  Even if the coins are sold for a premium above market (whatever that means), and it leaks out to the public (never gonna happen), I wouldn't expect a huge rally or anything.  In fact, I'd place my bets on some really stupid fake FUD leak coming out on Monday saying that the coins sold for $200 a piece or some shit.  Prompting yet again another mass panic sell off for no reason at all.  Either that, or maybe next week comes and goes without anything major happening.

You see, bubbles are actually created (ie., fabricated) by whales who wait for the perfect market conditions to happen + advanced insider knowledge of some major announcements coming down the pipe.  Then they start slowly pre-seeding the market with mega dollars to begin the rally.  The bubble then feeds on itself, and is catapulted higher with mega media attention + the reveal of the major good news announcements near the middle.  This is all planned ahead of time, months in advance.  This happens in the stock market as well.

So I just don't see the next 2 weeks as that perfect storm.  Perhaps we are still 6-8 weeks away.  Or perhaps, not even until next year sometime.  I still see a slow steady rise in price regardless of what happens this year.

Edit: Oh you were being sarcastic.  Got it.

I was being a bit facetious, yes, but the gist of what I wrote was true. I notice a lot of people back peddling now, but there was a lot of talk from the usual cheerleaders claiming that today would be huge. Now it's more like, the coins will sell for approximately market value, and we may not even know for sure. Whereas a week ago, people were saying they'd sell for much higher than market value and other bullshit. Does anyone still believe this?

Anyone? ... anyone?

*chirp* *chirp*