Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

This whole silly auction thing reminds me of last summer when the sale of Satoshi Dice led to a good chunk of coins (126k?) being paid out to shareholders.

Some fools thought they would all hit the exchanges and sink the price, leading to an immediate flash crash from $98 down to $86. Even though there was no appreciable impact of the payout the next day (prices actually rose), it took over a week to recover.

It seems the kind of people who held shares in SD were also the kind of people to hold their bitcoins, actual Bitcoin people and not just traders. Surprise, surprise.

When the list of bidders in the auction was leaked it should have been fairly obvious that they probably weren't going to immediately sell them, let alone at exchanges.

The whole thing was a non-issue.

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[JorgeStolfi]

In fact, I'd place my bets on some really stupid fake FUD leak coming out on Monday saying that the coins sold for $200 a piece or some shit.

That would be pathetic amateur FUD.  Professional FUD will be more like this "Source inside the USMS revealed that only three of the 10 lots were bidded at, and the bids were so low that the USMS decided to cancel the auction, since the paperwork needed to execute the sale would mean a net loss for the US Treasury.  The coins will be returned to the FBI, and will likely be used by the agency to trap llegal e-commerce sites, money launderers, fraudulent exchanges, and the customers thereof."   

[Parazyd]

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

[empowering]

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

[ShroomsKit]

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying  ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? -  naaaaah"  

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

[ShroomsKit]

This whole silly auction thing reminds me of last summer when the sale of Satoshi Dice led to a good chunk of coins (126k?) being paid out to shareholders.

Some fools thought they would all hit the exchanges and sink the price, leading to an immediate flash crash from $98 down to $86. Even though there was no appreciable impact of the payout the next day (prices actually rose), it took over a week to recover.

It seems the kind of people who held shares in SD were also the kind of people to hold their bitcoins, actual Bitcoin people and not just traders. Surprise, surprise.

When the list of bidders in the auction was leaked it should have been fairly obvious that they probably weren't going to immediately sell them, let alone at exchanges.

The whole thing was a non-issue.

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

[empowering]

Huh?? I don't think you understand what i'm saying haha. Nevermind.

Oh ok then ... I was very simply saying  ... "this auction the biggest thing in BTC? -  naaaaah"  

If there was some sort of special secret meaning , that I have missed in your last few messages- then yeah I do not understand you.

Ok, what i'm saying is you need to update your sarcasm detector.

Sarcasm?

  fair play.

[trepper]

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

[aminorex]

As usual the only thing that is sinking the price is the panic sellers sinking the price because they are afraid the price might sink. Every single time.

Yes, but...
As usual the only thing that is rising the price up is the panic buyers rising the price because they are sure the price will go to da moon. Every single time.

Rational discounting leads to a valuation scenario which renders anything but buying at the maximum holding level questionable at best.  For that reason, the emotional explanation of the bull case seems irrelevant.

I know I should expect FUD factors at random intervals, since that is history, but it is very hard to see how btc has not overcome all of the major threats at this point, save one or two in reserve.  (Fungibility being one that seems inevitable to me, but not yet.  It should show signs in the media before it becomes a price issue.)  Those items aside, that leaves only the adoption rate in question.

[ShroomsKit]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

[aminorex]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Or, the non-event this week may have immunized the market, inured it against such concerns.

[keithers]

Wait a second. Has Wall Street already started trading BTC? This trend throughout the past month is so lipsum.

"Oh my god!  It even has a watermark"

[Raystonn]

I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.

Won't happen.  Seized foreign currencies are immediately turned to USD on an approved exchange and sent to the Treasury.  By the time this court case is over there will be an approved Bitcoin exchange, and more than enough liquidity to absorb the coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

[abercrombie]

Alex Water is supposed to bid "live on air" at 3pm on Bloomberg...  2:20

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/u-s-to-auction-17-4m-cache-of-bitcoins-KXmFXKwlTrmpruPRBIPf5w.html

[N12]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

[TERA]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

[aminorex]

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Not over one year though.

[Raystonn]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Excellent find.  This is very comprehensive.  Great job Blitz.