Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fonsie]

Since I already lost 2 million dollars, I think I'm going to ride this one out. But don't worry, I should be safe because I only invested about 0.5% of my wealth.

May I ask then, if you are that wealthy, why are you bothering with a cheap-ass referral link in your signature?

So that people can find a reliable solution for securing their bitcoins, with the affiliate link I can monitor the amount of sales that are being done...

Ah right. Is that you, Bruce Wayne?  

ssshhhh, don't blow my cover.

I don't want to create another false identity called NotLampChop.

[btcney]

Lots of old coins are moving.

[fonsie]

Lots of old coins are moving.

Some graphs/proof please or should we take your word for it.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Dropping like a stone

[fonsie]

Dropping like a stone

Like some small pebbles you mean.

[inca]

Ok the price is going nowhere. Off out for a few pints.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Dropping like a stone

Like some small pebbles you mean.

Gravity tends to not discrimintate

[fonsie]

Dropping like a stone

Like some small pebbles you mean.

Gravity tends to not discrimintate

Doesn't it?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

 

[btcney]

Lots of old coins are moving.

Some graphs/proof please or should we take your word for it.

http://btc.blockr.io/block/info/328067

[Fatman3001]

But why would they decide to spend money on a long-term pump when they have the shorting bonanza of legends right now for free?

On the other hand, with all the VC money flowing into bitcoin why don´t any of these entrepreneurs do anything to stabilize the price of bitcoin? They sort of depend on bitcoin being an attractive proposition.

Just look at the pump from 300- to 400+, why they did that? Profit. You may think they are net buying during a pump but that is seldom the case. Regarding venture capitalists, most of them are rich kids that will lose all the money their dad has hard-earned during a lifetime. Some of them get lucky, once in a while, but that is all. Do not count on them stabilizing the price.

And now we are back to ≈$300 and peering into the abyss. What could result in bitcoin not plummeting every time it climbs a bit? I understand speculators manipulate the market quite fiercely, but a pump without some new influence on the fundamentals would have to be a bubble, even if it´s from $10 to $100. What would make anyone here honestly believe we where heading up?

We need some news , good news .  Paypal is one of them .

But Paypal is here, it didn´t help. I thought it would. But it didn´t. That´s what makes me worried. If it behaved like a share it should have gone consistently up after such an announcement. If it behaved like a currency it certainly shouldn´t plummit like it does now. If someone wanted to make money it would surely be worthwhile to pump that news to heaven and back, but it just plummited. I would imagine an adoption wave would make XBT prices rise, but who would adopt a digital currency that halves in value in a matter of days. This is not a rhetorical question, I want to know!

[fonsie]

Lots of old coins are moving.

Some graphs/proof please or should we take your word for it.

http://btc.blockr.io/block/info/328067

I thought you said "Lots of old coins are moving.", would hardly call that "lots".

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

But why would they decide to spend money on a long-term pump when they have the shorting bonanza of legends right now for free?

On the other hand, with all the VC money flowing into bitcoin why don´t any of these entrepreneurs do anything to stabilize the price of bitcoin? They sort of depend on bitcoin being an attractive proposition.

Just look at the pump from 300- to 400+, why they did that? Profit. You may think they are net buying during a pump but that is seldom the case. Regarding venture capitalists, most of them are rich kids that will lose all the money their dad has hard-earned during a lifetime. Some of them get lucky, once in a while, but that is all. Do not count on them stabilizing the price.

And now we are back to ≈$300 and peering into the abyss. What could result in bitcoin not plummeting every time it climbs a bit? I understand speculators manipulate the market quite fiercely, but a pump without some new influence on the fundamentals would have to be a bubble, even if it´s from $10 to $100. What would make anyone here honestly believe we where heading up?

We need some news , good news .  Paypal is one of them .

But Paypal is here, it didn´t help. I thought it would. But it didn´t. That´s what makes me worried. If it behaved like a share it should have gone consistently up after such an announcement. If it behaved like a currency it certainly shouldn´t plummit like it does now. If someone wanted to make money it would surely be worthwhile to pump that news to heaven and back, but it just plummited. I would imagine an adoption wave would make XBT prices rise, but who would adopt a digital currency that halves in value in a matter of days. This is not a rhetorical question, I want to know!

Degenerate gamblers?


....

[JorgeStolfi]

Now bigger, smarter, girthier kids are providing the surprise buttsecs.

There is way more money in it for them to rally the price higher yet again than crashing the market into the floor. Hundreds of millions of VC money, infrastructure, rising user numbers, potential ETF to draw in investment capital. It's really a matter of when we go up. There is too much money to be made in this space for us not to mount another bubble or three. I still think this is all a distribution phase prior to the next run up. Unless we smash below the previous ATH on heavy volume, bitcoin days destroyed goes berzerk, or the black swan - the US comes out and bans bitcoin.

I don't see how one can make money with a pure pump-and-dump strategy (buying to increase the price, then selling at the higher price).  Sounds like those old perpetual-motion machines where falling weights are supposed to pull other weights up.  A successful pump-and-dump must include substantial misleading marketing as well.

Venture capital (which seems to grow 2--3x each time the original estimates are re-quoted  ) has been going mostly into auxiliary services like exchanges, payment processors, fund management, gambling sites, etc.  Those enterprises do not profit from BTC price increase, but from fees collected from BTC users.  While increasing price and/or usage would increase their fees, the investment they would have to make in order to pump the price is much more than what they expect to profit from the resulting price increase.

There is no data on actual BTC usage for e-commerce.  More shops accepting bitcoins may be just splitting the same market niche (owners of old coins who decide to cash in by shopping) over a larger merchant base.  Ditto for the increasing numbers of payment processors, funds, gamblings sites etc..

[grappa_barricata]

analysis of bubbles

Hi Jorge. Nice analysis. I was thinking about the May/June rally and its demise... look at the 'phases' (always few very big market buys) and the price levels (especially on the way down). What i think is that many people were expecting a new bubble to start before August and some big player gave them the illusion of that, trapping lots of money above 600$.

[pjviitas]

$319.88 here it comes again!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonsie]

Now bigger, smarter, girthier kids are providing the surprise buttsecs.

There is way more money in it for them to rally the price higher yet again than crashing the market into the floor. Hundreds of millions of VC money, infrastructure, rising user numbers, potential ETF to draw in investment capital. It's really a matter of when we go up. There is too much money to be made in this space for us not to mount another bubble or three. I still think this is all a distribution phase prior to the next run up. Unless we smash below the previous ATH on heavy volume, bitcoin days destroyed goes berzerk, or the black swan - the US comes out and bans bitcoin.

I don't see how one can make money with a pure pump-and-dump strategy (buying to increase the price, then selling at the higher price).  Sounds like those old perpetual-motion machines where falling weights are supposed to pull other weights up.  A successful pump-and-dump must include substantial misleading marketing as well.

Venture capital (which seems to grow 2--3x each time the original estimates are re-quoted  ) has been going mostly into auxiliary services like exchanges, payment processors, fund management, gambling sites, etc.  Those enterprises do not profit from BTC price increase, but from fees collected from BTC users.  While increasing price and/or usage would increase their fees, the investment they would have to make in order to pump the price is much more than what they expect to profit from the resulting price increase.

There is no data on actual BTC usage for e-commerce.  More shops accepting bitcoins may be just splitting the same market niche (owners of old coins who decide to cash in by shopping) over a larger merchant base.  Ditto for the increasing numbers of payment processors, funds, gamblings sites etc..

I'm very skeptic about your academic interest. Venture capital doesn't benefit directly from increasing prises, but they also don't go investing in something they see dissapearing into oblivion in a years time.

[fonsie]

$319.88 here it comes again!

Dude, that was like... I don't know, like ages ago. Back at 323 again.

Take a look at the 1 minute chart, for the bigger picture on it all.

[r0ach]

and the attractiveness of BTC as an investment cannot be growing

I made a pretty solid case that if BTC does not go below previous ATH levels, which most people don't expect it to do, that BTC has already entered savings account level of interest rates (5%ish per year) in a bad case scenario where the price only remains stagnant but BTC keeps on surviving:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=837260.msg9353457#msg9353457