Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Kupsi]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.

They bought at $10. If they wanted more, they would have bought more then.

PS: Tim Draper came late to the party. He is trying to buy again.

[phoenix1]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.

They bought at $10. If they wanted more, they would have bought more then.

LOL! So nobody who bought in double digits ever buys again? Didn't realise that was how it worked. Not even if they are planning to sell those coins to Joe Public? That's not very confidence inspiring 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

[Newbie1022]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.

They bought at $10. If they wanted more, they would have bought more then.

PS: Tim Draper came late to the party. He is trying to buy again.

But they said $100,000... so below $400 is certainly a bargain... and likely below $350 and even a $250 to $300 bid is within the range of possibilities. Are they just bad at math and opposed to 300x profits?

[Newbie1022]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

But clearly the Winklevii are not as confident... by that same logic... because they refuse to buy in late. They are only looking for ways to hock their wares, now.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

But clearly the Winklevii are not as confident... by that same logic... because they refuse to buy in late. They are only looking for ways to hock their wares, now.

I don't think anybody can argue against that.

[NotLambchop]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

How'd that work out?

[Davyd05]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

[Newbie1022]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

But clearly the Winklevii are not as confident... by that same logic... because they refuse to buy in late. They are only looking for ways to hock their wares, now.

I don't think anybody can argue against that.

I just mention that because then, at best, we have a mixed signal unless you think Draper is the more competent investor in this particular market.

[Kupsi]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.

They bought at $10. If they wanted more, they would have bought more then.

PS: Tim Draper came late to the party. He is trying to buy again.

But they said $100,000... so below $400 is certainly a bargain... and likely below $350 and even a $250 to $300 bid is within the range of possibilities. Are they just bad at math and opposed to 300x profits?

Why don't you short more if you know the price will go down? Are you bad at math?

[Newbie1022]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

[Newbie1022]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.

They bought at $10. If they wanted more, they would have bought more then.

PS: Tim Draper came late to the party. He is trying to buy again.

But they said $100,000... so below $400 is certainly a bargain... and likely below $350 and even a $250 to $300 bid is within the range of possibilities. Are they just bad at math and opposed to 300x profits?

Why don't you short more if you know the price will go down? Are you bad at math?

I don't know the price will go down. In fact, I am in a long right now. I anticipate the price will go up. Why? Because there will be some variant of bad news that all of the delusionals will nonetheless rationalize as good news. There will be a price spike. Then the price will come back to earth. Rinse and repeat.

[phoenix1]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

He actually transferred the coins to Mirror, an exchange Venture he is invested in. It is reasonable to assume he no longer has full price exposure to all the coins as there are other investors in Mirror. He has stated that he is bidding with the Mirror Consortium this time. IDK if he is also bidding independently, but that would appear to be a big conflict of interest. 'Hmmm, let's have a look at all those consortium bids so I know that I can outbid them ...'

http://www.coindesk.com/vaurum-rebrands-mirror/

[oda.krell]

If someone bid 1$ for all of those coins that alone is 50k "in bids"

Like secondmarket would even accept such a ridiculous bid. I think most of the bids are not far of the market price, maybe -20% max.

Thanks for making some sense. Just like last time: don't think anyone could conclude from the public sources for what price the lots went exactly, but anyone thinking it was hugely above or below market is/was fooling himself. That's the magic of auctions and arbitrage: somebody will bid close to market, if for no other reason to to collect a (relatively) safe profit through auction -> exchange arbitrage (if he gets them below market that is).

[Newbie1022]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

He actually transferred the coins to Mirror, an exchange Venture he is invested in. It is reasonable to assume he no longer has full price exposure to all the coins as there are other investors in Mirror. He has stated that he is bidding with the Mirror Consortium this time. IDK if he is also bidding independently, but that would appear to be a big conflict of interest. 'Hmmm, let's have a look at all those consortium bids so I know that I can outbid them ...'

http://www.coindesk.com/vaurum-rebrands-mirror/

Accurate. You still know, though, that if the consortium wins all the delusionals will just tell themselves Papa Draper is holding the bag for them.

[coinableS]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Because they already own 100k+. They don't need more to become very, very rich.

Perhaps it's because they a lot of time and capital tied up in the ETF right now and an auction isn't on top of their priority list.  That's my guess.  

[Kupsi]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

[Newbie1022]

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

Because they already own 100k+. They don't need more to become very, very rich.

Perhaps it's because they a lot of time and capital tied up in the ETF right now and an auction isn't on top of their priority list.  That's my guess.  

But then this undercuts another delusion -- that the ETF would be oversubscribed forcing the Winklevii to have to scoop up new coins driving the price up. If they thought the ETF would be over subscribed and if we are entering a bull market then has there ever been a better time to buy. I don't know, this reading and arithmetic stuff is new to me.

[Newbie1022]

Why not buy a coin yourself, instead of demanding the winkelvi buy up all the coins not being hodled already.

I switched long short-term (with a narrow stop, though, as this could get pretty going up or ugly going down). Anyhow, if the Winklevii were to buy all of the bitcoins right now that would be beneficial to my position.

Anyhow, I posted it because I legitimately wonder. Also, so many people are posting that this guy or that guy seems very confident... well, there are some high profile Bitcoiners who are not so confident. So, mixed signal at best.

If they weren't confident, they should sell. They already have had a 37x increase. Diversification is wise, but they keep holding

Are they really holding? Or are they looking to sell their coins at a premium by recasting their coins as an ETF? I mean, say I have a bag of turds... I might have trouble selling a bag of turds. But, let's imagine that I was able to wrap those turds neatly in a snickers candy wrapper and sell it as a snickers. Maybe, just maybe, somebody won't realize until they take a bit into it that I just sold them some turds. If the Winklevii aren't bidding and they are running this ETF, I have a hard time distinguishing the turds in a candy wrapper strategy from there own. Just saying.

[phoenix1]

Draper must be very confident that the price is going to rise a lot in the future seeing as he bought in relatively late.

He actually transferred the coins to Mirror, an exchange Venture he is invested in. It is reasonable to assume he no longer has full price exposure to all the coins as there are other investors in Mirror. He has stated that he is bidding with the Mirror Consortium this time. IDK if he is also bidding independently, but that would appear to be a big conflict of interest. 'Hmmm, let's have a look at all those consortium bids so I know that I can outbid them ...'

http://www.coindesk.com/vaurum-rebrands-mirror/

Accurate. You still know, though, that if the consortium wins all the delusionals will just tell themselves Papa Draper is holding the bag for them.

Yeh, you are probably right, but I think the chances of any consortium winning outright are very low. As I said in another post, a bunch of small fish would be really stupid to bid high. It makes no sense. It also makes no sense for Draper to bid with the consortium if he plans to try and buy shitloads within that and drown out the other members. Again - conflict of interest.