Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vokain]

i've got a good feeling about this

[1714202708]

1714202708

[1714202708]

1714202708

[BitPirate]

You have no evidence!

Melodrama != evidence

Sure, post a price chart. I know the price has decreased. The question is if the price is about to increase or decrease though.

Translation:  "Post your price chart, I can't understand the damn thing anyway.  So, I'll just blindly believe in my up, up, up theory."

Additionally, I disagree that interest is fading. The indicators posted earlier lag the price -- if the price is appreciating, there will be more Google searches, more client downloads, etc. The fact that there is a hard bottom on some of the stats that is as much as 50% of the all-time peak is actually quite promising -- it sets a baseline on the non-speculative portion of the market.

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

[molecular]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

[vokain]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

+10
succint summary of our current state of affairs on this spec board

[QuestionAuthority]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

+10
suscint summary of our current state of affairs on this spec board

I agree, very good.

[gandhibt]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

+1. This deserves fourth window.

[micalith]

I just leave this here, what do you think? The first image is from may:



June:



July:



Interest is down, the number of USA nodes has been cutted in half since may, are we going to da moon soon? How many nodes will be next month?

P.s: http://getaddr.bitnodes.io/

I think these figures reflect the ASICs reduced decentralisation situation rather than decreased interest in bitcoin. GPUs turned off or switched to litecoin, and much higher bitrate per node/miner, of which there are less?  (sorry I couldn't shrink the images tried putting [img width=100] in many different places...)

Ignoring the old short/mid-term up vs down debate, I'll restate a question I asked during the quiet weekend, about the assumed long-term bullishness. I got a few answers and an interesting discussion emerged about the Argentine situation, but I didn't get the answer that might convince a sceptic that bitcoin will really go to the next stage in the long term.

how can we be certain this will really go allot higher. 200-300, maybe for a while, but 1000?...

[vokain]

I think these figures reflect the ASICs reduced decentralisation situation rather than decreased interest in bitcoin. GPUs turned off or switched to litecoin, and much higher bitrate per node/miner, of which there are less?  (sorry I couldn't shrink the images tried putting in many different places...)

no way

[ChartBuddy]

[CoinEntropy]

Translation:  "I have run out of any legitimate arguments in the face of overwhelming evidence, and instead will resort to fox news style spin of those negatives."

I'm not sure what language you speak, but it can't be English if you believe those are accurate translations.

Again, what "overwhelming evidence"? The price has dropped a lot and so therefore must continue? Nice one, brainbox! I'm so overwhelmed I almost can't bring myself to fin

The "evidence" the bears have been pointing to unisono is the pattern one can see on the 3 month chart. 3 x lower highs and 2 x lower lows. The idea is that this pattern will continue and next we'll see a lower low (<$67). One can even find similarities within the patterns and the predictive method used is extrapolation of the pattern.

I'm not ruling out a lower low. One would probably put it at $50 and incidentally we would then have reached the post-bubble low for a second time putting in a double bottom with extremely high volume and huge probability of a bounce there.

There would then (during the bounce back up) be talk of both reversal and bull trap / dead cat bounces.

If we subsequently break $50 after that, there will be the long-awaited capitulation. Bulls will be broken and people who didn't sell substantially post-bubble would start considering it and some will. People will leave the forums pissed off at this scam that is bitcoin and media will start some negative talk. There would be long squeezes of leveraged bulls who fell for the trap and downward accelleration. Raw irrational panic. People who were waiting for cheap coins will still be waiting, infected by the fear and panic and shocked their bearish dreams came true. They would not buy until things turn around substantially. Many coins would change hands at the real bottom, however, and this is when real money is made and lost.

I hope the bears are happy about me describing this fantasy. Again: I don't rule it out, but neither should the bears rule out the possibility we won't put in a new low below $67 and just sneak slowly sideways/up helped by good fundamentals.

There's no "evidence staring us in the eye". Noone knows, everyone believes.

Thank you for your perspective. It's sobering if anything.

[micalith]

I think these figures reflect the ASICs reduced decentralisation situation rather than decreased interest in bitcoin.

Number of nodes has nothing to do with mining.
These numbers show definitely, that interest is decreasing.

OK, just googled that. I see. It's good to see the hype fading so we can see something closer to the true colours at least.

[tutkarz]

I think these figures reflect the ASICs reduced decentralisation situation rather than decreased interest in bitcoin.

Number of nodes has nothing to do with mining.
These numbers show definitely, that interest is decreasing.

Or maybe people are waiting for they investment to pay out or services will come on line where they will be able to spend their bitcoins. That does not mean everybody will run to exchanges and sell everything they have.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

[tutkarz]

Looks like that, half of the people waiting for cheap coins and another half waiting for price to rise. But its ok i guess. I think the more we wait the less chance for cheap coins.

[MickeyT2008]

Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

I am bullish about BTC in the long run but I'm also flat broke.  If the bears are going to hold the price down for long enough for me to scrape enough cash together to catch the train too then that's fine by me.  'Due to unforeseen circumstances the 12:41 train to the moon will be delayed' - just like my order from BFL of course

In the meantime I'll just keep turning over the small amount of BTC that I already have because this market uncertainty does present a good trading opportunity

[ChartBuddy]

[Zarathustra]

Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=

[wonkytonky]

is it just me or do we have someone trying to pull off a rally on monday.. 

and then a massive dump will come next ?