Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[1714201596]

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[1714201596]

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[vokain]

again, how do I run my own chart buddy? I want to be able to shift time back and forth with it

[NewLiberty]

...
Sure, but the point is that in bitcoin world big money doesn't automatically mean more money, because you can't print and loan bitcoins. That's pretty simple.

You don't think there were tycoons & beggars with gold standard?  We had the silly thing in US 'til the seventies!  As far as lending with Bitcoin, i can talk you through many interesting lending schemes where the total number of bitcoins in circulation is not the ceiling (hint:  when you borrow a million dollars from a bank, do you take it home in a trunk?)

The trick you will have to solve in order to have this paragraph make sense, is how to get someone to accept a fractionally reserve borrowed "~bitcoin" as payment.

I have x bitcoins.  I issue you & 10 other people letters of credit for x/9.  Magic.

OK, next you are going to have to solve the problem of how to get someone to accept a letter of credit for Bitcoin.  Or in other words, the same thing I wrote in the last challenge to this scheme.  You've done no magic yet.  It is ~bitcoin, or !bitcoin if you prefer...  Who accepts it?

The same person who accepts anything more interesting than a pawnshop/payday loan.  Unless you're used to asking for your loans in used, nonsequential twenties, you're familiar with one piece of paper representing another.

Edit:  Think "line of credit."  If it seems inconceivable to you, figure out how the fractional reserve system come into being -- there's no need to "print" all the monyz you lend
Edit2 (tangent):  I will also issue Crumblets, paper promissory notes denominated in bitcoins.  As tangible currency, requiring no internet access or gizmos, this folding money will become more popular than Bitcoin itself.

Paper is paper.  The old game is not the new game, we're talking bitcoin crypto-currency, so you need to improve your trick.

So you don't know anyone who would either take the bait either?  And now you want me to do this magic trick for you?
I am well aware of how the fractional reserve system came into being.  The problems which were solved by the creation of fractional reserve (carrying heavy gold and silver from place to place) are not problems of bitcoin, it moves faster than most cash equivalents and is lighter than a feather.

To perform your magic trick, you are going to have to find "marks" and "patsys" with whom to trade your "letters of credit" !bitcoins.  The trick will be on those that accept !bitcoins for payment for anything rather than asking for bitcoins.  I may have a few bridges to sell to your customers, but I am not going to be accepting the !bitcoins for them.

But hey, you are so confidant in this scheme, maybe you are that patsy? Would you like to buy an online wallet account that has !bitcoin in it for the privilege paying interest on it in bitcoin?  I have been told the seller promises that they won't sell the bitcoin backing it to more than 10 other people and that they won't take the bitcoins out of it suddenly.  It is just as good as bitcoin, really it is.  We can call it !ripple if you like.

If you are going to do this scam, you are going to need a bunch of shills who are going to offer to accept your !bitcoin from your mark after the mark gets !bitcoin from you.  Fractional reserve is a confidence game.  Why else do banks build such impressive structures? They want your confidence.  I'm not saying it can't be done, or even that you can't do it.  If it will work anywhere, it will probably work in a high-trust society like USA.

We are way off the topic of MtGox walls.  My apologies to the rest, if anyone objects, we'll start a fractional reserve bitcoin thread in a more appropriate place.

[ElectricMucus]

Protect yourself and hold as little fiat as you can safely get away with.

This ^^

If not Bitcoin then anything inflation proof will do as a way to store money, even things like collecting antiques

We are in a deflationary phase now actually.

You start buying when blood is running in the streets?

I'll buy when I think I can sell for more than 2% profit within 24 hours. (With relative certainty)

The problem is, under those conditions one frequently ends up selling high and buying higher.

So? It still accumulates profit, that's better than the average market participant can say.

Still inferior to the performance of buy and hold, even if you bought at $32. Each one of those gaps between selling high and buying higher represents a reduction of your holdings. The average market participant thinks they are smarter than the market as a whole, if not in confidence then by their actions. Presuming that their action represents the best course of action, while it seldom is. Sell high, buy higher is a really awful strategy. The way to mitigate risk beyond just buy and hold is really DCA. And that looks more like what our buy whale is doing... The support is there,

I'm disappointed.

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

[Coinseeker]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

[rpietila]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

[N12]

No more triple digits means that 90s is expensive, and therefore we have much further to go down. Reptilia, this point in time is August 2011, not November 2011.

[vokain]

No more triple digits means that 90s is expensive, and therefore we have much further to go down. Reptilia, this point in time is August 2011, not November 2011.

perhaps we conditioned ourselves to think ahead a bit sooner?

[Its About Sharing]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

I think until we see BTC being used for a fair amount of online transactions, the other uses will be secondary and cause it's price to go back down. The online use will probably come, but when?
Countries like Argentina using more of it will help, but that seems a very very small percentage of it's use (which is overall already small).
A store of value and as an investment seems to be the current use. When daily use takes over that use, then we will see the price stay up above a certain level.
Those of us here are overwhelmingly bullish but we realize that BTC is still a little bit away from exploding up and staying up. It might only be months, but it is relatively clear we are not quite there yet.

I'm thinking the PE ratio (if we were to quantify it like a stock) would probably have us pretty low. We will be treated like an internet stock during the boom though, and the "PE" will be quite high imo.
But, in the short to mid term, a correction does make sense as use is still very very small. (But that can change and is changing - the question is when...)

Long term Big Bull, but right now it seems to be deflating a bit. Those big purchases on the recent leg up were probably due to the Satoshi purchase. And hey, more big purchases like that happen (and they will), we are gonna rocket. But when? The last one shocked us...

[Coinseeker]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

Who said anything about "regret"?   All your other points are moot seeing as BTC is currently falling and finding a nice home in the 80's.  So, maybe you could go convince those "5 million" people (where ever you got that number from) to actually purchase BTC.  Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the decline.  

[ChartBuddy]

[crumbs]

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Fractional reserve is a confidence game.  Why else do banks build such impressive structures? They want your confidence.  I'm not saying it can't be done, or even that you can't do it.  If it will work anywhere, it will probably work in a high-trust society like USA.

Are you saying that my Bitcoin fractional reserve lending is no better than the fiat lending we know & love?  I agree.  All i wanted to show is fractional reserve lending could be done without inflationary currency -- what did you think i was trying to prove?  

[rpietila]

if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

Who said anything about "regret"?   All your other points are moot seeing as BTC is currently falling and finding a nice home in the 80's.  So, maybe you could go convince those "5 million" people (where ever you got that number from) to actually purchase BTC.  Otherwise, sit back and enjoy the decline.  

I did pick my words: "What would cause this?" Sellers must outnumber buyers, which can happen temporarily, and BTC may find its home in the 80s for some time, but I don't see any more "long and painful slide", because the new entrants are just so much more numerous as the current holders. Just as in late 2011. It took about a year for me from hear to buy. So is it with the 5 million new ones.

The only reason to sell now is capitulation. If you plan to buy back cheaper, good luck - panic hold is just better strategy

[crumbs]

Somebody used the word "dither" to describe what the chart's doing now, and now i can't think of anything else when i look at it. 

[ElectricMucus]

No more triple digits means that 90s is expensive, and therefore we have much further to go down. Reptilia, this point in time is August 2011, not November 2011.

perhaps we conditioned ourselves to think ahead a bit sooner?

FYGM

[Coinseeker]

I did pick my words: "What would cause this?" Sellers must outnumber buyers, which can happen temporarily, and BTC may find its home in the 80s for some time, but I don't see any more "long and painful slide", because the new entrants are just so much more numerous as the current holders. Just as in late 2011. It took about a year for me from hear to buy. So is it with the 5 million new ones.

The only reason to sell now is capitulation. If you plan to buy back cheaper, good luck - panic hold is just better strategy

Ok, so a year from now we can expect a rise based on these new and arbitrary 5 million "new ones"?  Great, so your comments mean nothing in relation to what's going on today or over the next couple of weeks.  So from all of this, we have learned nothing except what we already knew, which is, BTC is still going down.  Thanks for wasting 5 minutes of my life, that I will never get back.  

[ChartBuddy]