Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chufchuf]

Most of GPU miners didn't want ROI as soon as possible, as I explained earlier - they counted on reselling their GPUs, and they were mostly hobbyist. But I'm a miner myself, I know a lot of miners, I've seen in first person who are the customers of companies like KnC and how much they are spending, and you have to understand that this last media bubble exposed Bitcoin to a lot of new and uneducated people who run profit calculators at current difficulty (without having their miners yet), they do not even understand that difficulty is growing exponentially, and at the end of the day there is a "gold rush" in which a lot of new people is entering mining because they think they will get rich quick... So we have now a) a lot of individuals investing money they cannot afford to lose on BTC miners, and as you surely know there is a "get-rich-quick" feeling on BTC - they think they will recoup their investment FAST, and this is why they are putting in this game more money they should; b) there are more and more "professional" miners that are investing money in mining with the only intention of generating profit - they will run their operations as a business. That people has to pay for huge electricity costs, renting of industrial places where they will host their operations, etc. etc. etc. A lot of fiat expenses to cover.

During the GPU era, I rarely saw a) and b) miners, most were small-time hobbyist, running their rigs in their bedrooms. During this change to ASIC, I'm seeing a lot of both a) and b). This people needs to recoup fiat ASAP.

What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.

In the GPU era, there was a ton of people buy dozens of graphics cards looking for ROI, just like there is now.

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

What is of interest, though is that, despite bitstamp being easier to deal with than btc-e, btc-e is 4 dollars below bitstamp. And thats because exchanges with lower trading volumes, like btc-e are easier to manipulate. This was exactly what used to happen when MtGox went down on DDOS, there were absolutely massive collapses in prices and they successfully collected the spoils when MtGox would reopen.

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[giszmo]

Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?

XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life. Some argue that XBT will win as the rule for non-governmental money is X… like in XAG and XAU.
My fav is Ƀ as it's easily typed once you know the code ctrl-u + 243. BTC is good, too. XBT it will be if the others insist in it. Just be easy with whatever and please don't insist in your choice being the best. Time will tell.

[JimboToronto]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?

XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life.

Yeah, honestly, I think it's pretty clear which one is used the most, so having all kinds of alternatives only helps to confuse newcomers.
And bitcoin is confusing enough already if you are new to it...

[derpinheimer]

Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?

XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life.

Yeah, honestly, I think it's pretty clear which one is used the most, so having all kinds of alternatives only helps to confuse newcomers.
And bitcoin is confusing enough already if you are new to it...

To be honest, I thought XBT was Ripple until now 

[molecular]

Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?

XBT, BTC, Ƀ, these are all the same thing and you should understand them. The one that gets used most, will win in every day life. Some argue that XBT will win as the rule for non-governmental money is X… like in XAG and XAU.
My fav is Ƀ as it's easily typed once you know the code ctrl-u + 243. BTC is good, too. XBT it will be if the others insist in it. Just be easy with whatever and please don't insist in your choice being the best. Time will tell.

"mbit" will win

[Adrian-x]

Why do you keep saying XBT when almost everyone uses BTC?

lol, I'm an early adopter & an optimist. www.xe.com my go to for international convections uses that identifier.  

Yeah, honestly, I think it's pretty clear which one is used the most,

USD seems to be more popular the Bitcoin, but that isn't a valid reason to use it.

[JimboToronto]

Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate

I'm not sure where you got that figure.

As for the supply of coins, it is fixed and at a virtually steady rate for another 3.5 years.

I'm of the opinion that unless miners are cash-strapped that they'll simply wait for the price to come back up before selling. That's if they're even selling and not simply hoarding as so many seem to do.

Remember that even at today's depressed prices, mining is still profitable. A year ago the block reward was 50BTC with a total value of $250. Today the reward is only 25BTC but the value is close to $2500.

The hardware rules may have changed but the economics are still the same. No, it's not worth buying up GPUs anymore, but if my BFL miner arrived today, it would still pay for itself in 12 days at today's price and difficulty. While that's a lot longer than the 2 days it would have taken in April, it's still pretty good. Even if it takes months longer and difficulty hits 9 digits, it'll still return a 100% profit  every couple of months at today's price. When the price bounces back up, the return will be even better, at least until the next reward halving. By then, who knows what the price will be?

[Rampion]

Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate

I'm not sure where you got that figure.

Basic math.

This year (2013) aprox. BTC1,312,500 will be minted, those are being added to the BTC10,500,000 minted until the end of 2012, so at the end of the year you will have around BTC11,812,500

That's a yearly inflation of 12.5%

In 2014 it should be around 11%, in the following years it will decrease until aprox. 9% (2016) until it falls to 4% in 2017 because of the next reward halving.

Yes, surprise, Bitcoin the deflationary currency its in a heavily inflationary phase and it will be for the next decade. Good thing is that the inflation is predictable and immune to third party manipulation.

[JimboToronto]

Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate

I'm not sure where you got that figure.

Basic math.

This year (2013) aprox. BTC1,312,500 will be minted, those are being added to the BTC10,500,000 minted until the end of 2012, so at the end of the year you will have around BTC11,812,500

That's a yearly inflation of 12.5%

In 2014 it should be around 11%, in the following years it will decrease until aprox. 9% (2016) until it falls to 4% in 2017 because of the next reward halving.

Yes, surprise, Bitcoin the deflationary currency its in a heavily inflationary phase and it will be for the next decade. Good thing is that the inflation is predictable and immune to third party manipulation.

Gotcha. What you referred to as inflation, I see as increase in supply.

I tend to think of inflation as a function of value, as in how much of a currency is required to buy something.

With fiat currencies, inflation is usually measured by indices covering everything from wages to fuel prices. It takes more USD each year to buy a gallon of gas or hire a laborer for an hour.  Bitcoin is referred to as deflationary because it takes fewer and fewer coins each year to buy something, be it an ASIC miner, an American dollar or a pound of herbs.

[ChartBuddy]

[notme]

Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate

I'm not sure where you got that figure.

Basic math.

This year (2013) aprox. BTC1,312,500 will be minted, those are being added to the BTC10,500,000 minted until the end of 2012, so at the end of the year you will have around BTC11,812,500

That's a yearly inflation of 12.5%

In 2014 it should be around 11%, in the following years it will decrease until aprox. 9% (2016) until it falls to 4% in 2017 because of the next reward halving.

Yes, surprise, Bitcoin the deflationary currency its in a heavily inflationary phase and it will be for the next decade. Good thing is that the inflation is predictable and immune to third party manipulation.

Gotcha. What you referred to as inflation, I see as increase in supply.

I tend to think of inflation as a function of value, as in how much of a currency is required to buy something.

With fiat currencies, inflation is usually measured by indices covering everything from wages to fuel prices. It takes more USD each year to buy a gallon of gas or hire a laborer for an hour.  Bitcoin is referred to as deflationary because it takes fewer and fewer coins each year to buy something, be it an ASIC miner, an American dollar or a pound of herbs.

You are talking about price inflation.

Rampion is talking about monetary inflation.

Both are correct uses of the term, and both talked about regarding fiat currencies.

Also, wages have not been keeping pace with food and energy price inflation, so it's hard to back up the claim that the price of labor is inflating.

[gandhibt]

Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate

I'm not sure where you got that figure.

Basic math.

This year (2013) aprox. BTC1,312,500 will be minted, those are being added to the BTC10,500,000 minted until the end of 2012, so at the end of the year you will have around BTC11,812,500

That's a yearly inflation of 12.5%

In 2014 it should be around 11%, in the following years it will decrease until aprox. 9% (2016) until it falls to 4% in 2017 because of the next reward halving.

Yes, surprise, Bitcoin the deflationary currency its in a heavily inflationary phase and it will be for the next decade. Good thing is that the inflation is predictable and immune to third party manipulation.

Gotcha. What you referred to as inflation, I see as increase in supply.

I tend to think of inflation as a function of value, as in how much of a currency is required to buy something.

With fiat currencies, inflation is usually measured by indices covering everything from wages to fuel prices. It takes more USD each year to buy a gallon of gas or hire a laborer for an hour.  Bitcoin is referred to as deflationary because it takes fewer and fewer coins each year to buy something, be it an ASIC miner, an American dollar or shitloads of herbs.

That's a reason to like bitcoin (of course there are some other reasons as well).

[Traktion]

Not much longer now. The 12 hour chart is unbelievably bullish. The bears in the low 100s are going to be massacred.

12 hour chart? massacred? really?

I agree, everything thing I have is screaming upward, that this is only just the beginning.

The short term chart does look like there may be a break out. There is a rising triangle, which is pretty bullish.

I'm still not convinced that the breakout will last, but I've bought a chunk of BTC again and may sell into the breakout, should it occur.

[It is also painful not holding much BTC. Holding so much fiat feels... dirty!]

After seeing how the day has developed, I've sold out again (for about the same price as I bought in!).

It still doesn't look like $100 is going to be breached and sustained (or $95 on Bitstamp).

[chufchuf]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

[notme]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

He didn't say difficulty drives price, he said it has a non negligible influence.  Your numbers seem to support that.  That said, I agree that counting on miners to sell out is a horrible assumption.

[ChartBuddy]

[bitcodo]

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

This is the problem. Where did the get the money for all this shit. Asicminer can't sell, as they would crash the price and nobody would buy asicminer...they must first sell their stuff and then they can sell bitcoins. The prices in bitcoins seem high, as they know they can't sell 100k bitcoins at market price.

Also, wages have not been keeping pace with food and energy price inflation, so it's hard to back up the claim that the price of labor is inflating.

People think they get more money, so they are happy. Inflation is great!