Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[8up]

Are you prepared?

[1714666989]

1714666989

[1714666989]

1714666989

[1714666989]

1714666989

[1714666989]

1714666989

[1714666989]

1714666989

[1714666989]

1714666989

[mOgliE]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot 

Probably, you need to zoom out a little bit in order to have a better perspective.


Sometimes, I wonder, unless it is just for trolling effect, how posters can get so worked up about the price movement within one or two weeks or some other selective period of time that shows a downward trend. 

We have both downward and upward trends in bitcoin, and both can be occurring at the same time depending on the timeline that you are describing.

Surely, we may have some continuing and ongoing downtrend, even below $300 - however, if we realize that to be a possibility, then we should prepare for such - which doesn't necessarily mean betting all of our BTC holdings that it is going below $300, when we may only see that as a less than 10% probability.

At this point, I am inclined towards thinking the next 5% adjustment in BTC prices will be down... I give it a 53% for down and 47% for up....   But really it is not a clear and convincing conviction merely to be inclined to believe one way or the other.

Not trolling dude... Merely worrying about the future that's all...

I'm glad you have so much faith in bitcoin and so much self control. I for myself am a bit worried about a potential stagnation linked to the issues btc is facing. I don't like seeing the lowering trend of the past weeks, and I don't want to see a new age of 280/300 $ that's all.

[JayJuanGee]

Big gap opening up on dodgy dealings that is BTC-e.

What irony [insert gif here]


Maybe BTC-e is becoming our new price leader?


Although they have been up for several weeks - even when BTC prices were going down.


I doubt BTC-e's higher prices and widening gap should imply any kind of "dodgy dealings" necessarily.


Their actual anonymity and difficulties in transferring cash in and out of there has always caused them to perform a bit different from some of the other exchanges that are more KYC and AML compliant.  No?

Is there any other evidence of "dodgy dealings," besides a ongoing and increasing price gap?

BTC-e has always been one of the lower volume exchanges and it never needed much money to create a wide gap with the high volume exchanges. Today its had $ 2,207,640 of bitcoins traded which puts it slightly below Bitstamp in volume. That's not evidence of "dodgy dealings" but it's highly unusual for BTC-e to have that much volume. The order books still look fairly thin, so if someone with money wants to buy a big number of bitcoins there it will make an ongoing and increasing price gap.

Hey, that sounds like as good of an explanation as any other explanation that has been put forth.

Accordingly, generally low volume and thin order books, allows for more price manipulation in one direction or another by a small number of whales (I generally don't buy into any "one whale theories" without some evidence).


And, I agree whale manipulation based on arbitrage or whatever low volume opportunities does not rise to the level of an accusation worthy of "dodgy dealings."

[coin_gambler]

no movements in price... people need action as fast as possible

[tomothy]

Re: Nioc - Electrum, Good point. I might as well move some coins here in case of catastrophic failure. Write down words on paper. Put paper in safe... Bury safe in backyard? Lol..., no but seriously. Buried in back yard or safety deposit box? Lol... (backyard?)

Re: JayJuanGee - I think you are too quick to discount the recent scaling debate & divisiveness. I think the issue now, is that this issue hasn't gone away but gotten worse. Although this scaling fight, in essence, has been present since Gavin's transition, it is now festering and the price is being affected. It started with Hearns XT and blacklisting of TOR nodes, which allegedly was not blacklisted but... and then you have blockstream, Core, RBF, lightning, stubbornness. As a lay user, I no longer trust either camp (Hearn/Core). Everyone has a secret agenda but Core's agenda no longer seems to co-exist with the goals of miners, users, or exchanges. I see no significant issue with a pure 1mb increase (2mb total) and restoration of no RBF. Essentially, IMO, continuation of the status quo while Bitcoin was run by Gavin. Core desperately doesn't want this and has failed to explain to me why their way is better.

There has been a lot of bluster on both sides and I think this holding pattern may simply continue until Bitfury releases the new Asics...  but still... Bitcoin has started to smell,  I don't like segwit, I don't trust it. I think it sounds good, but it sounds too good to be true. If this wasn't bitcoin, maybe I'd bite. However, there are lots of smoke and mirrors in cryptoland and this stinks worse than the alternatives.  

I think ultimately you have two sets of institutional investors, aka super powers, probably even more, whom all have different designs for bitcoin. BlockStream & PWC vs. Coinbase Et al. Until there is a clear winner or loser I don't see much happening out in the open or changes in price. I see continued stagnation. In private however, it seems like there is some super sexy development going on... which will push price up when the time is right. I.E., continue to Hodl until the big boys are done playing... and they start the pump.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[nioc]

Re: Nioc - Electrum, Good point. I might as well move some coins here in case of catastrophic failure. Write down words on paper. Put paper in safe... Bury safe in backyard? Lol..., no but seriously. Buried in back yard or safety deposit box? Lol... (backyard?)

Yes on paper.  Where paper?  In all the following.

1) In my house.  
2) Safe deposit box that somebody else has access to.
3) In somebody else's lock box.
4) Given to yet another person.

This is for all my cryptos.  No reason for it to be lost due to my certain demise.  I'm lucky enough to know people in whose hands I can put my life.

I'm sure you will figure out what works for you

Edit: I would suggest more than one location.

[JayJuanGee]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot 

Probably, you need to zoom out a little bit in order to have a better perspective.


Sometimes, I wonder, unless it is just for trolling effect, how posters can get so worked up about the price movement within one or two weeks or some other selective period of time that shows a downward trend. 

We have both downward and upward trends in bitcoin, and both can be occurring at the same time depending on the timeline that you are describing.

Surely, we may have some continuing and ongoing downtrend, even below $300 - however, if we realize that to be a possibility, then we should prepare for such - which doesn't necessarily mean betting all of our BTC holdings that it is going below $300, when we may only see that as a less than 10% probability.

At this point, I am inclined towards thinking the next 5% adjustment in BTC prices will be down... I give it a 53% for down and 47% for up....   But really it is not a clear and convincing conviction merely to be inclined to believe one way or the other.

Not trolling dude... Merely worrying about the future that's all...

I'm glad you have so much faith in bitcoin and so much self control. I for myself am a bit worried about a potential stagnation linked to the issues btc is facing. I don't like seeing the lowering trend of the past weeks, and I don't want to see a new age of 280/300 $ that's all.

Yeah, but you are getting a bit unrealistic when you get so caught up such recent BTC history when btc's performance and fundamentals are much stronger than the past few weeks of bitcoinlandia drama.  Also, historically, there has been quite a bit of drama and stories about doom and gloom and death of bitcoin, yet bitcoin is still quite strong and doing considerably well, given the many indirect and direct attacks that it has received and continues to receive (even if prices were to go into the $280/$300 price range).

I feel a lot better if BTC prices go up (and I profit more), but really I cannot control that kind of price movement or even influence the market in any kind of meaningful way. 

Accordingly, I have been engaging in a variety of steps to attempt to protect myself on both ends, and even to cause some profits no matter the direction of BTC's price movement - even though at the time being, I profit quite a bit more if the price goes up rather than going down. 

Overall, I am betting that the long term BTC prices are going to go up rather than down or flat, yet I am attempting to employ tactics and strategies in order that I can withstand continued ongoing downward manipulation and/or delays in that anticipated upward trajectory by not investing more than I can afford to lose and also staggering my bets along the way in both directions.

In essence, I have been buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and in that regard, I apportion the amounts that I am buying and selling according to my own view of the future (at any particular moment), and my tolerance of risk within the consideration of the possibility that some fluke (whether man-made or natural) could cause bitcoin prices to plummet to zero or near zero.

[JayJuanGee]

Re: Nioc - Electrum, Good point. I might as well move some coins here in case of catastrophic failure. Write down words on paper. Put paper in safe... Bury safe in backyard? Lol..., no but seriously. Buried in back yard or safety deposit box? Lol... (backyard?)

Re: JayJuanGee - I think you are too quick to discount the recent scaling debate & divisiveness. I think the issue now, is that this issue hasn't gone away but gotten worse. Although this scaling fight, in essence, has been present since Gavin's transition, it is now festering and the price is being affected. It started with Hearns XT and blacklisting of TOR nodes, which allegedly was not blacklisted but... and then you have blockstream, Core, RBF, lightning, stubbornness. As a lay user, I no longer trust either camp (Hearn/Core). Everyone has a secret agenda but Core's agenda no longer seems to co-exist with the goals of miners, users, or exchanges. I see no significant issue with a pure 1mb increase (2mb total) and restoration of no RBF. Essentially, IMO, continuation of the status quo while Bitcoin was run by Gavin. Core desperately doesn't want this and has failed to explain to me why their way is better.

There has been a lot of bluster on both sides and I think this holding pattern may simply continue until Bitfury releases the new Asics...  but still... Bitcoin has started to smell,  I don't like segwit, I don't trust it. I think it sounds good, but it sounds too good to be true. If this wasn't bitcoin, maybe I'd bite. However, there are lots of smoke and mirrors in cryptoland and this stinks worse than the alternatives.  

I think ultimately you have two sets of institutional investors, aka super powers, probably even more, whom all have different designs for bitcoin. BlockStream & PWC vs. Coinbase Et al. Until there is a clear winner or loser I don't see much happening out in the open or changes in price. I see continued stagnation. In private however, it seems like there is some super sexy development going on... which will push price up when the time is right. I.E., continue to Hodl until the big boys are done playing... and they start the pump.

Hey your view and your rendition of your view is perfectly reasonable - even though mine is a bit different than yours.


There is nothing wrong with individuals having variations of different views and placing greater and lesser weight on different factors in order to view probabilities differently.

Sometimes, we may change our views with more information and the passage of time, and sometimes we will become more entrenched in our views, nothing wrong with that either.

Ultimately, we are going to feel better if we have the means and the time to be able to largely allocate our investment into BTC (or not) in accordance with your views, and that is not always easy because of the vast amount of information, development and even misinformation and sometimes rapid changes that may cause us to act based on either a lack of information or based on the wrong information.

I have no problem with your different view, and I enjoy hearing it... even though I will likely continue to assert my view... sometimes with vigor and sometimes with humor and maybe other times with a wink and a nod.   

[rebuilder]

Re: paper wallets : if you leave them with other people, shouldn't you encrypt them? At one point I had a copy of a paper wallet I stored remotely, and I manually encrypted the key. My nerdy solution was to take the ANSI codes of the characters of the privkey and add the ANSI codes for characters from a password I chose to each character. Password looped because it wasn't as long as the key. Printed out the resulting sequence of numbers along with an explanation of how the addding worked. Didn't encrypt the first character of the privkey since that's a known number and would slightly weaken the security.

You can probably come up with something simpler...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[mymenace]

Coin



Explanation

great to see market manipulation at play

learn how they do it and win

1) buy low, sell high
2) fud says sell then buy, fud says buy then sell

dont forget this is also played out on world markets

current world markets and the pump and dump down
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/01/muddy-waters-warns-on-chinese-stocks-largest-pump-and-dump-in-history/


current world market scams as well
http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/one-million-investors-lose-10-billion-in-one-of-the-biggest-financial-frauds-to-hit-china/news-story/69457040f13566f73305a783ad1dfe17

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/30/asia/1mdb-scandal-4-billion-dollars/


learn to play the game or lose

all money is inherent with risk

current economists are saying it will get better, Obama state of the union address - he says Americas economy is going great - result SELL!!

[bitebits]

I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do ...

No, please don't. If you like to keep your bitcoins save against hacked exchanges, yourself or hardware failure, just create a paper wallet at https://www.bitaddress.org/

[tomothy]

I wish I had a Family Guy Meme, "You know what really grinds my gears,"  the viewpoint that, "Miners, Exchanges, & Users don't matter."
It makes me think of the beta max vs vhs fiasco and Google/ Adsense/Adwords 0% initial fees for users. Adoption is key and I don't think we've hit critical mass yet. Regardless, as soon as Bitfury release their chips, and re-sellers have consumer mining equipment for sale again, I'm buying back in so I can cast my vote. I miss the sound of whrring fans lol.

[aztecminer]

I bought at 380 thinking it would only go up, and you know what? I hate being wrong ><

The common traders emotion, "Why does the price always go down after I buy and goes up right after I sell". Well we just need to wait for a little while for the price to push around the $390 mark again.

True, but I see only a lowering trend and it's bothering me a lot  

Probably, you need to zoom out a little bit in order to have a better perspective.


Sometimes, I wonder, unless it is just for trolling effect, how posters can get so worked up about the price movement within one or two weeks or some other selective period of time that shows a downward trend.  

We have both downward and upward trends in bitcoin, and both can be occurring at the same time depending on the timeline that you are describing.

Surely, we may have some continuing and ongoing downtrend, even below $300 - however, if we realize that to be a possibility, then we should prepare for such - which doesn't necessarily mean betting all of our BTC holdings that it is going below $300, when we may only see that as a less than 10% probability.

At this point, I am inclined towards thinking the next 5% adjustment in BTC prices will be down... I give it a 53% for down and 47% for up....   But really it is not a clear and convincing conviction merely to be inclined to believe one way or the other.

Not trolling dude... Merely worrying about the future that's all...

I'm glad you have so much faith in bitcoin and so much self control. I for myself am a bit worried about a potential stagnation linked to the issues btc is facing. I don't like seeing the lowering trend of the past weeks, and I don't want to see a new age of 280/300 $ that's all.

Yeah, but you are getting a bit unrealistic when you get so caught up such recent BTC history when btc's performance and fundamentals are much stronger than the past few weeks of bitcoinlandia drama.  Also, historically, there has been quite a bit of drama and stories about doom and gloom and death of bitcoin, yet bitcoin is still quite strong and doing considerably well, given the many indirect and direct attacks that it has received and continues to receive (even if prices were to go into the $280/$300 price range).

I feel a lot better if BTC prices go up (and I profit more), but really I cannot control that kind of price movement or even influence the market in any kind of meaningful way.  

Accordingly, I have been engaging in a variety of steps to attempt to protect myself on both ends, and even to cause some profits no matter the direction of BTC's price movement - even though at the time being, I profit quite a bit more if the price goes up rather than going down.  

Overall, I am betting that the long term BTC prices are going to go up rather than down or flat, yet I am attempting to employ tactics and strategies in order that I can withstand continued ongoing downward manipulation and/or delays in that anticipated upward trajectory by not investing more than I can afford to lose and also staggering my bets along the way in both directions.

In essence, I have been buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and in that regard, I apportion the amounts that I am buying and selling according to my own view of the future (at any particular moment), and my tolerance of risk within the consideration of the possibility that some fluke (whether man-made or natural) could cause bitcoin prices to plummet to zero or near zero.

juangee... you really need to stop spreading these false rumors that bitcoin is doing just fine.. until the bloatchain not scaling issue is resolved then bitcoin is not doing alright at all, regardless of how many foos are buying it.. all the people who are buying bitcoin atm are at risk that bitcoin may never scale.. until it does then it doesnt .. it don't matter how much you promise it will be fixed .. it has been EIGHT MONTHS we been waiting .. #ridiculousness   ... at the rate is going BitcoinPure will be released and forked bitcoin while u tards are still trying to figure out who is the ruler of bitcoins and who owns the fees.

[nioc]

Re: paper wallets : if you leave them with other people, shouldn't you encrypt them? At one point I had a copy of a paper wallet I stored remotely, and I manually encrypted the key. My nerdy solution was to take the ANSI codes of the characters of the privkey and add the ANSI codes for characters from a password I chose to each character. Password looped because it wasn't as long as the key. Printed out the resulting sequence of numbers along with an explanation of how the addding worked. Didn't encrypt the first character of the privkey since that's a known number and would slightly weaken the security.

You can probably come up with something simpler...

I enjoy your posts.  I know you are sharper than me.

How does encrypting a seed or password and then giving instructions to decrypt it provide much extra security?

[Dotto]

Bitcoin: bleeding since 2015(TM)

What a awful year... and seems to go worse

[tomothy]

I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do ...

No, please don't. If you like to keep your bitcoins save against hacked exchanges, yourself or hardware failure, just create a paper wallet at https://www.bitaddress.org/

How secure is something like electrum's word wallet generation vs coinbase 2 day vault + multisig. My inherent risk is institutional failure vs. me deleting wallet, losing keys, or (however unlikely) someone guessing the wallet words? Since talk of the fork I've flip flopped about 8 times for withdrawing or splitting coins. After my recent hardware restoration am a bit more pessimistic...

[nioc]

I use various services to hold my coins. I recognize that I'm dependent on what the institutions do ...

No, please don't. If you like to keep your bitcoins save against hacked exchanges, yourself or hardware failure, just create a paper wallet at https://www.bitaddress.org/

How secure is something like electrum's word wallet generation vs coinbase 2 day vault + multisig. My inherent risk is institutional failure vs. me deleting wallet, losing keys, or (however unlikely) someone guessing the wallet words? Since talk of the fork I've flip flopped about 8 times for withdrawing or splitting coins. After my recent hardware restoration am a bit more pessimistic...

Nobody is guessing your seed.  It doesn't matter is you take a sledge hammer to your comp. 

Just keep your seed safe and password safe.

I have no idea what "coinbase 2 day vault + multisig" is.

[mymenace]

Bitcoin: bleeding since 2015(TM)

What a awful year... and seems to go worse

yep for everyone who bought over 373

i wonder what the people who bought between 160 to 300 think