Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

He is probably allowd to sleep for three hours a night

[1596835951]

1596835951

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

[Icygreen]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

[kaeltr]

Hmm, that volume really looks weak.

Hope 3800$ will hold.

 

[Elwar]

So in 2014-2015 the price was down from the all time high. The reality is that the price shooting up to $1200 a year after it was about $12 was a bit premature. But the halving dislodged the supply from demand in a way that nobody really knew what to expect since it was completely new to the market. The price came down to more reasonable levels for the amount of bitcoins coming into the market vs the demand.

In 2016 there was another halving. This time people anticipated that the price would rise like in 2012 so they began buying. The same thing happened again, the supply and demand were dislodged and people misjudged how that would affect the price. But this time there were some larger investors involved since institutions were able to dip their toes into it. Thus the rise to $20k.

The price right now reflects the fact that there are some large institutions with their money in bitcoin but I believe we found the equilibrium of supply and demand around the $6400 range. Though that may have been due to remnants of the FOMO folks still hoping for recovery. Right now people are unreasonably dumping but we still may have some FOMO hold outs that are not yet desperate to leave, so the price may still go down further until they are scared out of the market. Institutions may even start dropping off at times of investor reporting or other institutional reasons. Some may recognize this as a cycle and double down (but don't trust Wall Street folks to be that smart).

The key here is that there is not another halving until 2020. So we will be in this price discovery phase for at least a year.

If history repeats itself, the few remaining hodlers will desperately be telling people a year from now "the halving is coming...hold on just a little longer!...Please!...".

Or, people who saw that the price began to rise a few months before the last halving may start putting their money in a few months before a few months before the halving.

Either way, I would say at least until next fall you should not expect to see any decent prices. News, technical advances, etc. never really have any impact on the price (at least in the short term, it just provides fundamentals in the long term).

I wish this were not the case as I will be selling seasteads starting next year. Coinciding with a market boom would be ideal. But that's just the reality of how the market reacts to halvings.

Then again, who knows...past does not predict future...but we can see some similarities.

[kaeltr]

^
I give it until the end of the year.
If we get back to 6500$ by then it would be very bullish, imho.

Otherwise we just entered the slope of hope.


EDIT: thanks for the merit, btw

[El duderino_]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

[kaeltr]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

gneeheehee ...

roach is buying ...

[Wekkel]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Yes, lots of words is what he uses.

But there is an interesting thought on what he calls the ‘Metagame’. In other posts, he describes the behaviour of a coyote encountering a group of humans. The coyote stares down the humans with an expression like ‘I do not care for you humans; I’m not afraid of you’. And puts his nose in the air, turns around and goes away.

The coyote wins this game.

But the humans get together and discuss what they saw. A threatening predator that shows no fear for humans and willing to confront them instead of running away scared at the first sight of humans. The humans vow to hunt this animal so that it’s numbers are decimated.

The humans win. The humans win the Metagame. The coyote is not able to understand that by winning the individual with his behaviour, it is losing the Metagame.

I guess that is what he tries to ask: how is the cryptocurrency community intending to deal with the humans called ‘king’ when taking away their claim on society’s money? How will it save itself from the wrath of the King?

You’ll have to read it all between the lines but I sense that the author understands the tremendous power of of the idea of cryptocurrency. But somehow considers it a lost cause if it’s community does not come to terms with the King on how to blend in and give the King the King’s due.

Personally, I think the King may have less teeth than envisaged. On the other hand, it does is a force to recon with.

This guy does a lot of deep thinking (with a lot of words to express it   ). It stems me positive to see some signs that he may be moving ahead in his thinking about cryptocurrency. We won’t make it just with this WO community (sorry guys).

[JayJuanGee]

^
I give it until the end of the year.
If we get back to 6500$ by then it would be very bullish, imho.

Otherwise we just entered the slope of hope.


EDIT: thanks for the merit, btw

That's not a bad assessment in order to suggest that if we don't get a certain amount of UP, then likely we are confirmed in a down and/or flat for a longer time.

However, kaeltr, since you are new here, maybe you should explain your own BTC position... your approximate entry point(s) and your current strategy (maybe in context of your past strategy)?  How about other coins?  You got any of thems?

[JayJuanGee]

good moment to go into my HODLcave

Hodling to zero is so yesterday.  Real men buy all the way to zero.

You absolutely don’t know how far i’m in BTC

Umm.. I'm pretty sure you told us once, not that I'll repeat but ya. 

Mmm absolutely doesn’t know that anymore but played quiet a lot of poker etc so Maybe Some things must have been changed by now 

I don't recall you ever really disclosing your BTC position, but I may have missed some of that, too.

[El duderino_]

^
Thought the same but never no Maybe VERY Maybe @ the Total begin .... but think not also not gonna argue that cause i’m not 100%sure

[Elwar]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Yes, lots of words is what he uses.

But there is an interesting thought on what he calls the ‘Metagame’. In other posts, he describes the behaviour of a coyote encountering a group of humans. The coyote stares down the humans with an expression like ‘I do not care for you humans; I’m not afraid of you’. And puts his nose in the air, turns around and goes away.

The coyote wins this game.

But the humans get together and discuss what they saw. A threatening predator that shows no fear for humans and willing to confront them instead of running away scared at the first sight of humans. The humans vow to hunt this animal so that it’s numbers are decimated.

The humans win. The humans win the Metagame. The coyote is not able to understand that by winning the individual with his behaviour, it is losing the Metagame.

I guess that is what he tries to ask: how is the cryptocurrency community intending to deal with the humans called ‘king’ when taking away their claim on society’s money? How will it save itself from the wrath of the King?

You’ll have to read it all between the lines but I sense that the author understands the tremendous power of of the idea of cryptocurrency. But somehow considers it a lost cause if it’s community does not come to terms with the King on how to blend in and give the King the King’s due.

Personally, I think the King may have less teeth than envisaged. On the other hand, it does is a force to recon with.

This guy does a lot of deep thinking (with a lot of words to express it   ). It stems me positive to see some signs that he may be moving ahead in his thinking about cryptocurrency. We won’t make it just with this WO community (sorry guys).

I'm not disagreeing with the guy. Just kept waiting for the metagame portion that you mentioned.

I believe the ideal is that Bitcoin itself is a virus to the king. Slowly consuming until the king (banks) is dead.

Strangely enough, this was discussed in some of our seasteading discussions. We don't want to piss off the puppet masters who actually control things (especially early on). So we may have to put a Citibank on one of the first seasteads as an offering to the gods.

[RealMachasm]

I'm not disagreeing with the guy. Just kept waiting for the metagame portion that you mentioned.

I believe the ideal is that Bitcoin itself is a virus to the king. Slowly consuming until the king (banks) is dead.

Strangely enough, this was discussed in some of our seasteading discussions. We don't want to piss off the puppet masters who actually control things (especially early on). So we may have to put a Citibank on one of the first seasteads as an offering to the gods.

Nooooo! Don’t let the evil overlords get a foothold, you will never get them out.

[wayna]

Buttcoin is coming to an end.

I expected a little bull run this beginning of weekend... I still believe it will go lower before restabilizing at 6k or whatever.

[JayJuanGee]

^
Thought the same but never no Maybe VERY Maybe @ the Total begin .... but think not also not gonna argue that cause i’m not 100%sure

Well sometimes any of us posting here could talk about percentages or amount or strategies, and the only thing i recall you disclosing related to strategies... such as hodl and buydl of BTC.. and maybe amounts related to games, but not amounts that you were buying or even how long that you have been buying.. even though that could be easy to miss some posts that might have gone over that.

Regarding myself, I have provided a bit more regarding percentages of BTC bought but usually not amounts, except every once in a while I might describe amounts as examples or maybe amounts of some transactions that I have done, for example in the context of debunking claims about slow transaction times and/or high transaction fees.

[JayJuanGee]

A bit strange but made me think: https://www.epsilontheory.com/whats-your-metagame-an-open-letter-to-the-crypto-community/

Umm...the guy said a whole lot of nothing with a lot of words.

Yes, lots of words is what he uses.

But there is an interesting thought on what he calls the ‘Metagame’. In other posts, he describes the behaviour of a coyote encountering a group of humans. The coyote stares down the humans with an expression like ‘I do not care for you humans; I’m not afraid of you’. And puts his nose in the air, turns around and goes away.

The coyote wins this game.

But the humans get together and discuss what they saw. A threatening predator that shows no fear for humans and willing to confront them instead of running away scared at the first sight of humans. The humans vow to hunt this animal so that it’s numbers are decimated.

The humans win. The humans win the Metagame. The coyote is not able to understand that by winning the individual with his behaviour, it is losing the Metagame.

I guess that is what he tries to ask: how is the cryptocurrency community intending to deal with the humans called ‘king’ when taking away their claim on society’s money? How will it save itself from the wrath of the King?

You’ll have to read it all between the lines but I sense that the author understands the tremendous power of of the idea of cryptocurrency. But somehow considers it a lost cause if it’s community does not come to terms with the King on how to blend in and give the King the King’s due.

Personally, I think the King may have less teeth than envisaged. On the other hand, it does is a force to recon with.

This guy does a lot of deep thinking (with a lot of words to express it   ). It stems me positive to see some signs that he may be moving ahead in his thinking about cryptocurrency. We won’t make it just with this WO community (sorry guys).

I'm not disagreeing with the guy. Just kept waiting for the metagame portion that you mentioned.

I believe the ideal is that Bitcoin itself is a virus to the king. Slowly consuming until the king (banks) is dead.

Strangely enough, this was discussed in some of our seasteading discussions. We don't want to piss off the puppet masters who actually control things (especially early on). So we may have to put a Citibank on one of the first seasteads as an offering to the gods.

You also need government protection if you were to establish any seastead, which ultimately makes a seastead largely unfeasible because you are going to be in nearly constant negotiations for your own sovereignty and protection(s) in order to maintain your anti-government posture, you have to suck their dicks.. probably figuratively. 

[vroom]

I want to thank all these new guys who came here and registered a new account just to warn us about the end of bitcoin.

you are true heroes of the internet who use their scarce spare time to rescue us naive hat owners.

[wayna]

I want to thank all these new guys who came here and registered a new account just to warn us about the end of bitcoin.

you are true heroes of the internet who use their scarce spare time to rescue us naive hat owners.

I agree.

In the meantime the global economy is far more closer to a collapse, investing in regular stock market or many other assets is like playing poker...

We are talking about huge amount of money and people are really concerned about the Bitcoin bubble as if it was the main problem nowadays haha. Common sense is a far cry.

[El duderino_]

http://www.flabber.nl/artikel/flabbertv-doet-een-coinmercieel-buitenbeeldje-op-de-beleggersfair-2018-55736

did i saw some of the HOLLAND WO's in here .... made me laugh the old and young peeps on BTC