Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

An attempt at predicting trading channel from here - much lower certainty on this:

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[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/coinspeak_io/status/1063272025660121090
ABC used a centralized checkpoint to prevent re org. Pro ABC Exchanges were allegedly in on it.
 

(maybe repost - no time to read thread. back soon)

It doesn't really matter either way. ABC wouldn't have accepted SV blocks even without the checkpoint, so the narrative that it's somehow "cheating" makes no sense, and the checkpoint also doesn't prevent any likely attacks, so it's pointless centralization. These guys still haven't figured out how consensus systems work...

Isn't that part of the point about why bcash attackers are harping on this event?  They are not really harping on it because of whether it is effective or fair, but rather whether it shows that bcash is a kind of phoney that tries to act like it is similar to bitcoin in terms of the decentralized aspects, but when push comes to shove, bcash has a lot of ability to muster up whatever level of decision making that it needs to, even when it does not need to, because it does not even come close to the same ballpark as bitcoin when it comes to decentralization (even while holding itself out, pie in the sky as it even seems to them sometimes, as the "real" bitcoin's vision (pun not intended)).

[realr0ach]

Trading channel?  Do you think $600 million in Tethers were created out of thin air to create a trading channel right below the previous trading channel?  The only possible thing that could be going on is the dump is either a shakeout before a rise, or this thing is about to get shorted literally into the ground.  Regardless, do not sell.  We need as many shoeshine boys as possible to dump the second the scammers running BitFinex attempt to pump it again.

[infofront]

Is it "Bag on Hairy" Friday already?

[jbreher]

In the midst of this despair, I just wanted to surface the observation that anybody who has been holding bitcoin for more the thirteen months is in the green.

That is all.

[JayJuanGee]

If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).

Ooow long term downward from this point to halving....
Ain’t not much gonna be left by Then, so you suggest HARD times for HODLERS?

Going on full honeybadger BTFD mode for 2 years?

Cancel all future party meetings and luxury shit buyings, its hibernate time.

I can accept all of the narratives BTC had to follow, but i hope its not this one you are saying
 That been Said HOdL through all the F***ing bear market and time to change my avatar to a lebowski HAT

(Perhaps a theymos HAT ? )
XhomerX can get all of the jobs done

I think that sometimes theymos, realist as he may seem to be, can sometimes end up arguing a bit too much on the bearish side of bitcoin matters.  It has been shown in the past.  hahahahahaha   in other words, take theymos's predictions with a grain of salt.  


Edit:

Theymos's analysis makes lots of sense, but the corn is a proven dealer of surprises. Wait and see, I guess.

Hahahahaha.. this is what I was trying to say.

[HairyMaclairy]

Is it "Bag on Hairy" Friday already?

Doing an image search for "bag on hairy" is not recommended. 

[JayJuanGee]

If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.

I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).

Unless some major event happens like you said, this is exactly going to happen like it happened in 2014-2017. That means even under $3k is a possibility now.

Maybe BAKKT can reverse the bearish trend but I don't raise my hopes too high.

See you all in 2022   It will be a pure vomitfest from now on. 3 maybe 4 painful diskusting years are ahead.

Missed the Gox bubble, missed the tether bubble too. Fuck my life. >:-(

What a party poop!!!!!!             

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, you're never getting into Valhalla with posts like these.

[JayJuanGee]

So the general consensus is we’re going to continue to drop for years?

Well fuck me, we might as well sell everything now then?

Seriously though, if true that’s pretty depressing. How are we supposed to deal with that?

 

First of all.. just because a bunch of previous bull leaning folks are saying this does not necessarily mean that they are correct about what is going to happen, and such negative sentiment does cause a decent amount of incentive to fuck up the shorts that are created in reliance of such seemingly persistent negative sentiment(s).

Second, I don't see any reason for HODLers to do anything different than they usually do, which is largely to HODL through the whole thing.  Of course, you can play around a bit with some dollar cost averaging and buying on dips too... and surely if you end up overbuying a bit in this price range or some future price range (whether lower or higher), then you can sell a bit of those overbought coins to provide yourself with a bit more comfort.

Third, I don't recommend shorting for amateurs, but surely members like d_eddie and perhaps some others (maybe hairybearie) have outlined some ways in which relatively conservative shorts can be established in order to hedge (and provide some insurance).  I personally believe that my methods of incrementalism including DCA and buying on dips and selling small amounts as the price goes up are sufficiently serving well enough for me.. but surely there is decent rationale for at least some conservative playing around with strategically placed hedging shorts... as long as you don't become too disenchanted by starting to employ those tactics and then start to wish for down rather than up... Peeps in this thread would likely NOT want that kind of nonsense (even getting to the very extreme roach level) starting to spew from you, of course.  

[Wekkel]

It has a ring to it: https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-had-a-stamp-collection/

Spectacle, baby, spectacle....

[Toxic2040]

Hi Toxic. Many people here discourage bearishness, but there's practically no plausible, short term bullish scenario at this point.

Your take sounds reasonable. I'm crossing my fingers for a bart back up to $6K+, but I'm not holding my breath.

Sup info...
Yea..already feeling pretty blue in the face with this long slow slide. If we are not at the bottom, I do believe its nearly within sight for whatever that is worth..

An attempt at predicting trading channel from here - much lower certainty on this:

I concur.  I have this gut feeling that 5k needs to be tested before we can swing back towards bullishness. #dyor

[Fatman3001]

https://twitter.com/checksum0/status/1063495918970970114

More drama

I'll go make some popcorn

[JayJuanGee]

My gf sells on localbitcoins.

The past couple of days she's had some big sales requested.

I told her to ignore them.



Not taking the chance of the price shooting back up right after she's done a sale.

If the amount is small enough, then I don't see any problem with letting the show go on... You know the expression:  "The show must go on." 

I do sometime reduce the amounts that I am willing to sell based on situations in the market, and when the price is moving a lot, sometimes I won't transact until the market settles down a bit.  Furthermore, sometimes I don't mind selling a bit (whether it is 5% above current market rate or even a bit higher) because when the price has suddenly dropped down so much, I have had a shit load of buy orders filling; however, sell orders have not been filled in a long time, so in that sense, my position is not really hurt from shaving off a little bit through some side sale (even though I don't tend to be in the selling mood during times like this).

[Fatman3001]

update

https://twitter.com/checksum0/status/1063532895304859648

[JayJuanGee]

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

I watched that about 8 minute long video, and I agree with his conclusion that if certain support levels break, then the probabilities also break; however, I don't agree with his position that any of us should sell now... hahahahaha   

By the way, there is a kind of assumption, in his whole analysis, that bitcoin is a mature market.  Good luck with that assumption... Surely, he could be correct that bitcoin breaks lower than $5k or lower than $4k, but it is likely no way as near as inevitable to break down to those levels as he seems to be arguing to be "likely."

[HairyMaclairy]

I got as far as “when I was making this video yesterday”

Anyone that doesn’t chart in real time is a pussy

[Raja_MBZ]

Don't forget that @micgoossens did warn us only a few days back!

[PoolMinor]

Rastani throws in the towel, capitulation begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRCYQz6EAAY

He's one of my favorite analysts.

TLDW: We're going to $4,000-$4,500

No chance. We’re at the bottom now. I’m buying right now and will keep buying all the way back to $6,500.

I like your hypothesis better, QuestionAuthority, but the others have kind of substantiated their view with external TA or with their own arguments. Why do you think the bottom is in? Please share.

I'd also love to hear a contrarian opinion, like Tera's. Alas, (s)he's not here anymore.

I wish the hopium you guys have was worth something because I would be buying it. The same type of logic that said we would not be going below $6k, yet here we are. Just because you don't understand what TA is, doesn't mean that your opinion holds any weight.

Keep clinging to your stance. I will keep buying all the way down to ~$2200.

[Raja_MBZ]

We now have another faketoshi on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/satoshi/status/1063516638870478848