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Question: New ATH today?
Yes - 35 (79.5%)
No - 9 (20.5%)
Total Voters: 44

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25465959 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
encycrypto
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December 16, 2018, 10:12:18 PM

I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   

There won't be any AI or hacking, son! May Almighty bless you with a few hundred years of life!
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December 16, 2018, 10:13:45 PM

I bought in after the cyprus bubble, I said to myself back then I'd cash some in at 40k. Then the Dec bubble happened that same year. After that popped, I said to myself "next bubble I will sell some then buy in again. Problem is I was calling a bubble at 1800 then 2800 the 5000 and so on, basically I can't tell the top of a bubble for shit, so I'll keep waiting for 40k. Moral of story, wait till your target is hit, because picking the top of a bubble ain't easy, and if you sell too early it's likely you'll panic buy back in.

This is my long-term stash by the way, I do have other amounts that I buy sell more frequently and also for shit coins.

That's why you also don't sell major amounts, such as more than 50 % because you will run out of bitcoin, if you sell too soon in order to sell more.
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December 16, 2018, 10:16:45 PM

gembitz
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December 16, 2018, 10:17:34 PM

I really don't understand why everyone is so bothered by the decline and theoretical losses at the moment. Yes, it is not pleasant for the hodlers, but I don't agree that we will never recover or it will take decades. Let's recall year 2017, how it started. In early January we were close to a new ATH. Then suddenly the bank of China threatened to ban bitcoin exchanges on multiple occasions. The price fell from 1100 to 700 in hours and didn't recover for 2 months. Back then over 90% of all trades were made in China exchanges. Everyone was scared what will happen (including myself). Next we got denial for ETF. Next Bitfinex stopped withdrawals if fiat and suspicions of bancruptcy was in the air. Next Ver wanted a fork (BU). Next we had a fork in August. Next, we had the final ban in China. Next another fork in November was cancelled. Next Ver and Wu sold massively bitcoins to pump bcash. In all these bad news we were about 8K! The only good news CBOE and CME futures helped to reach 20K. So, you are telling me that in 3 years we can't reach again 8K? It is not realistic even if ETF is denied for ever and CW is dumping regularly his stolen bitcoins! Bitcoin market is way more agile and fast forward 10x any other asset. The most logical thing is in Dec. 2020 (after the halvening) to be above 10K.

Your whole summary is that bitcoin kept going up during a bull market, and it did not matter what negative things happened, bitcoin kept going up.  Yes, that summarizes 2017.

We are now in the opposite scenario, so the likelihood is down, no matter what happens, down.

What we are waiting for is a reversal, and such reversal could take 3 months to 2 years to play out.

this old creaking ship needs to stay above $900 :-D weeeeee
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December 16, 2018, 10:29:59 PM

hahahaha Wink

when you have buying the DIP all year

https://twitter.com/cryptochrisw/status/1074135563651989504

LoL
gembitz
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December 16, 2018, 10:42:06 PM

hahahaha Wink

when you have buying the DIP all year

https://twitter.com/cryptochrisw/status/1074135563651989504

LoL



 Cheesy

btfd!~~~*trust me* weeeeee
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December 16, 2018, 10:56:10 PM

^
i do trust you on that one and keep increasing my stash
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December 16, 2018, 11:07:15 PM

hahahaha Wink

when you have buying the DIP all year

https://twitter.com/cryptochrisw/status/1074135563651989504

LoL


+1 WOsMerit

Heh..its like he knew the broom would be used.

-----------

Still wick-less on the Daily. Probabilities that this could be a swing low are rapidly diminishing.

D


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December 16, 2018, 11:09:32 PM
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That's why you also don't sell major amounts, such as more than 50 % because you will run out of bitcoin, if you sell too soon in order to sell more.

Exactly. The trick is to have a plan where you're still holding on to something even if it goes to a million. That way you can enjoy the spoils even if the incredible happens and Bitcoin takes over the world in a flash.
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December 16, 2018, 11:11:06 PM

I never touch alts because I don’t believe in them. And I can make bad decisions if I don’t believe in what I am trading.

I’ve got a stash of XRP, nowhere near as much as my bitcoin HODLINGS but would be nice to see it moon in the future.

I don't see any considerable ecosystem benefits of various shitcoins pumpening, even if my personal holdings might go up because of such pumpenings.

I understand that it is likely inevitable that several shitcoins are going to pump in the coming years, and that is why we cannot have nice things, and at minimum it will take 20 years for a decent portion of the population to recognize the differentiating value in bitcoin, and more realistically it will take longer than 20 years, perhaps approaching 50 years (I will either be dead or close to dead by then, so if I am posting in this thread, then there is some kind of AI going on or my account has been hacked).   
I don't get why you see the differentiating value and the potential value proposition of altcoins as mutually exclusive. Bitcoin will be the future currency, where equity 2.0 will be given in the form of altcoins that are traded against Bitcoin.

Although I guess the current market makes it extremely hard to see this future, I don't think that altcoins are generally speaking shitcoins. Even if some 99% of them in fact are right now.

Companies won't really be able to tie their equity to Bitcoin due to its volatility, but they could very well fix a shitcoin to their annual, or at some point even real-time revenue, operating costs, profits, inventory, etc., which will vastly improve the tools available to value investors who now have to rely on quarterly reports that may or may not be cooked. Just to name one tiny future niche that will be fulfilled by blockchain eventually.

The amount of shitcoins right now is no different from the amount of shitsites during the dotcom bubble (probably much less since we're nowhere near peak). Doesn't mean that everything was shit. Same story with every bubble, keep an open mind or you'll miss the bigger picture due to the hordes of incompetence, money grabs and outright scams.
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December 16, 2018, 11:11:17 PM

Hey, don't knock shitcoins. Tribalism aside, Bitcoin would be nowhere without them. Precisely no---where. Anyone who's ever followed correlations between dominance and BTC price will have seen that by now.

For that reason, I promote shitcoins to bitcoiners and bitcoin to shitcoiners. They don't like it but they need to swallow it Wink


You really need to learn the difference between correlation and causation.
BTCMILLIONAIRE
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December 16, 2018, 11:12:48 PM

That's why you also don't sell major amounts, such as more than 50 % because you will run out of bitcoin, if you sell too soon in order to sell more.

Exactly. The trick is to have a plan where you're still holding on to something even if it goes to a million. That way you can enjoy the spoils even if the incredible happens and Bitcoin takes over the world in a flash.
I'd keep a "long" stash completely separate from the cash-out and trading stashes and never touch it until Bitcoin stops doing its wild waves.
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December 16, 2018, 11:14:44 PM

Hey, don't knock shitcoins. Tribalism aside, Bitcoin would be nowhere without them. Precisely no---where. Anyone who's ever followed correlations between dominance and BTC price will have seen that by now.

For that reason, I promote shitcoins to bitcoiners and bitcoin to shitcoiners. They don't like it but they need to swallow it Wink

Bitcorn dictates the price. Shitcoins are just Bitcoin money flowing into shitcoins and then back. Alts would be nowhere without Bitcoin, which doesn't mean that they won't serve a multitude of roles in the future. Without alts Bitcoin would simply become the denominator for stocks, bonds, and whatnot.
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December 16, 2018, 11:21:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

FAANG are also falling since this summer...

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December 16, 2018, 11:42:34 PM

Ok, from the poll it seems that most people thinks we have not yet reached the bottom. So... maybe we have?

I would say all the weak hands are already gone. I would be more worried about weak whales now.

Talking about whales... it has been some time since Bitcoin doesn't have any new whale, has it?

I mean, people like Tim Draper during the past bear market, etc....

Any new one this year?
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December 16, 2018, 11:43:31 PM

More light reading. Perhaps the last paper was a bit too esoteric. Imagining the whole Universe as a blockchain...pfft...the nerve.(My interpretation, not the author's.)

https://medium.com/@willemvandenbergh_85885/on-schelling-points-network-effects-and-lindy-inherent-properties-of-communication-c4eb69b55c60

https://medium.com/@laurentmt/the-yin-and-yang-of-bitcoin-bf056f3fd58c


And something different, fun at 264,000 feet. Weeeeee

https://twitter.com/JPMajor/status/1073632072474988544
Dig Bicks
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December 16, 2018, 11:53:56 PM

Ok, from the poll it seems that most people thinks we have not yet reached the bottom. So... maybe we have?

I would say all the weak hands are already gone. I would be more worried about weak whales now.

Talking about whales... it has been some time since Bitcoin doesn't have any new whale, has it?

I mean, people like Tim Draper during the past bear market, etc....

Any new one this year?

I heard George Soros has been dabbling in the crypto markets.
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December 16, 2018, 11:58:04 PM

Hey, don't knock shitcoins. Tribalism aside, Bitcoin would be nowhere without them. Precisely no---where. Anyone who's ever followed correlations between dominance and BTC price will have seen that by now.

For that reason, I promote shitcoins to bitcoiners and bitcoin to shitcoiners. They don't like it but they need to swallow it Wink

Bitcorn dictates the price. Shitcoins are just Bitcoin money flowing into shitcoins and then back. Alts would be nowhere without Bitcoin, which doesn't mean that they won't serve a multitude of roles in the future. Without alts Bitcoin would simply become the denominator for stocks, bonds, and whatnot.

And that is why shitcoins are only parasitic inflation on bitcoin. And all the hassle caused by their promotors only has dammaged the value of BTC as an asset, or store of value outside of the mainstream system. So now, here we are, bruised and bottoming every day, week lower, until  we will be a note in history. I see more value in the physical bottom in my house than ever now... .  Grin
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December 17, 2018, 12:02:23 AM

By the way, we're having a terrific NY party, and we offer nice welcome perks: open bar for ATH's!
Just in case you're considering...

He is definitely not coming. Couldn't make it. He has sent us some Xmas gifts though:




I want this under my tree Santa!

 Smiley
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December 17, 2018, 12:08:03 AM

By the way, we're having a terrific NY party, and we offer nice welcome perks: open bar for ATH's!
Just in case you're considering...

He is definitely not coming. Couldn't make it. He has sent us some Xmas gifts though:




Is the bottom in? No we can go deeper SmileySmileySmileySmiley

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