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Question: Oct. 23 Closing Price:
<$8,000 - 2 (3%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 0 (0%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 0 (0%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 0 (0%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 0 (0%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 1 (1.5%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 0 (0%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 3 (4.5%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 5 (7.6%)
$12,000-$12,500 - 16 (24.2%)
$12,500-$13,000 - 12 (18.2%)
$13,000-$13,500 - 8 (12.1%)
$13,500-$14,000 - 5 (7.6%)
>$14,000 - 14 (21.2%)
Total Voters: 66

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 23402433 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
rdbase
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May 20, 2019, 09:48:32 PM

^
Indeed honour Arnold after taken that coward hit in the back, F*** that sneaky coward!


You wanna see pissed off?  Keep f*cking with Arnie..

Who has that America/Canada meme?  The one where America gets up and jiggity after someone insults Canada?

Thats how I feel when someone takes a cheap shot at the Gov'inator.

I mean come on...serious wtf.

We have the same feelings I do re-see Arnold movies a lot Cheesy

Man I like the dude.....

I think I almost know all he’s one liners Roll Eyes
Loved that arnuld sound board which had them all!
"We about to ..
Pump..
You up!"

Now BTC is pumping. At over $8050 again! Grin
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Hybrid server-assisted clients like Electrum get a lot of their network information from centralized servers, but they also check the server's results using blockchain header data. This is perhaps somewhat more secure than either server-assisted clients or header-only clients.
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May 20, 2019, 09:48:54 PM

1h snapshot   #dyor

#stronghands'19
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May 20, 2019, 09:52:23 PM

Where is my Moon?

I was promised.

It seems to me that bitcoin is doing quite well, and even better than anticipated - especially given the dire period from mid-November all the way until the end of January.

Early February there began a slow crawl up to $4,200 and gosh, on April 1, the dam broke upwards, and we still have not had any meaningful correction.  Sure, there was a flash crash down from $8,200-ish to $6,200-ish, but so far, that downward has not persisted... we are largely back into the lower $8,xxx, which still seems to be in a better place than anticipated...

Perhaps, not exactly moon, yet, but history has shown us that these kinds of moon matters can take some time before they really build up steam.. perhaps, months and months and months.   I am not going to complain about any kind of lacking of moon... because I already feel good.   

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May 20, 2019, 09:53:19 PM


$8k look? 🤪


I would vote for this one to be official LOL
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May 20, 2019, 09:55:49 PM

@JJG

Tbh buddy, I need to buy a diary (I like paper records) and write down a few price/sell scenarios. I need to be much better prepared for the next parabolic bull run.

The last one took me by surprise & I was a little bit like a deer in headlights.

We all need to have a fixed sell point for a % of our bitcoin’s in my opinion. I might go out tomorrow & buy a diary then scribble a few things down tomorrow night.

IMHO, all plans go astray when market hit you in the face as hard as the last time.
I promised to someone to sell a certain amount at 10K, then market surged and I sold only 1/10 of what was agreed.
Now, i am not certain whether i should still go ahead at 10-11K (if and when we get there) OR wait it out.
From prior btc bull markets, they always tend to go to new ATHs; on the other hand-what if this is the first time it wouldn't happen (as unlikely as it is)?

Another thought: I rather not plan selling at exact numbers, but maybe at a certain time vis-a-vis what I want to do with the proceeds.
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May 20, 2019, 10:07:59 PM

I do have a sell plan. IMO, it's always better to plan ahead and execute without much thought when the time comes. My plan is rather conservative, so it won't be life-changing anyway.

In related news: we're well above 8k again. My small long position was limit sold with a small profit when we went down, and rebuilt (a little larger, but a little higher) and it's now in the green. I'm setting up another stop limit in case it dips again.
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May 20, 2019, 10:18:48 PM

https://www.coindesk.com/cryptos-pose-no-threat-to-financial-stability-european-central-bank

https://www.coindesk.com/beyond-kyc-global-regulators-appear-set-to-adopt-tough-new-rules-for-crypto-exchanges

some contradictions here.

the second one is worth a skim despite being on coindesk. the FATF ann will have some effect on the markets
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May 20, 2019, 10:30:13 PM

One year to halving.
Better get mining and buying.
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May 20, 2019, 10:48:18 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Biodom (1), JSRAW (1)

@JJG

Tbh buddy, I need to buy a diary (I like paper records) and write down a few price/sell scenarios. I need to be much better prepared for the next parabolic bull run.

The last one took me by surprise & I was a little bit like a deer in headlights.

We all need to have a fixed sell point for a % of our bitcoin’s in my opinion. I might go out tomorrow & buy a diary then scribble a few things down tomorrow night.

Fair enough about the diary.

Different tools an work too.

I used to use diaries for a lot of my cash projection planning in the 80s and 90s, and in early 2000s, I really started to play around with Excel.  I like Excel because of the ability to play around with scenarios and then to see how various scenarios play out - without having to re-input the data so many times.

With Excel, sometimes, you can create a couple of skeleton versions of scenarios and then copy and paste them, and frequently, I have figured out ways to re-jigger scenarios, and then cause some of the fields to serve as a kind of look back variable, so if I change one or two variables, then I will see how the whole projection might play out.

Don't get me wrong, paper can work out well, too, and I am not being an anti-paper snob.

I have made various kinds of disclosures of this before, but in mid-2015, I spent a considerable amount of time projecting various kinds of BTC price trajectories, and there were several people who thought that I was crazy, including some people with whom i shared my trajectories in real life.

When the BTC price began to go on its own little trajectory in late 2015 and moreso in 2016 and even moreso in 2017, I spent a decent amount of time to change some of my trajectories because I would see how the real numbers would stack up as compared with the projected numbers, and even by early to mid 2017, when BTC prices surpasses 4 digits, and then largely bounced around between $2k and $3k, I realized that my continuing to practice in maintaining a conservative and incremental cashing out all along the way, and not making BIG BTC cash outs along the way, was going to cause me to feel much better psychologically, and I did not need to generate more fiat than I had been generating.

By the time BTC prices got to supra $19k, I had only cashed out of about 12% of my BTC holdings rather than higher amounts that I had projected earlier.   Sure, upon retroactive analysis, I see that I could have made way more money by cashing out larger amounts and then buying back BTC with those proceeds, but still I have almost NO regrets about the way that I played my incrementalism approach to cashing out.

Of course, everyone is going to be a little bit different in terms of timeline for cashing out and if s/he believes that s/he has some kind of purpose for cashing out certain higher amounts that might go beyond a steady incrementalist approach, like I had chosen to take.

My current projection is to stay with my incrementalist approach, but also, I am not going to be shy, either if I decide to cash out decent amounts of BTC, as needed, if some real world expense or desire comes along.  Furthermore, I have also decided that at a certain point, likely within the next five years or perhaps less, I am going to begin to cash out 1% of the value of my BTC holdings every single quarter, no matter what is the then price.  Cashing out 1% per quarter should be a sustainable practice, even though we know that there is no real guarantees in bitcoin. 

I will admit that I have decent presumptions that by the time I start to automatically cash out 1% of the value of my BTC per quarter, that BTC prices are going to be higher than they are today (5 years-ish). It is also reasonable and prudent that I could set a BTC price floor on my plan, so for example, I could tell myself that no matter what the BTC price (as long as the price is above x - and for me x would be something like $5k), then I am authorized to cash out 1% of the value of my BTC holdings for each quarter.

Again, guys (and gal) here are going to be a bit different in how they calculate this, and in that regard, some piece of paper, an excel spreadsheet or whatever tools are within your comfort to use can help you to sit down and concentrate on various scenarios and possible ways to cash out some or all of your BTC... Personally, I think that it is NOT prudent to engage in any kind of 100% cashing out, but there may be folks who reasonably conclude that to be an approach that suits their own circumstances including their cashflow, other investments, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin, timeline and resources available to them, including skills.
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May 20, 2019, 11:08:51 PM

Again a round trip below 8k. Keep it going! Each one of those makes me a few million.

(Amounts in this post are in satoshis.)
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May 20, 2019, 11:25:22 PM

It is good to stay around 8k for a while
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May 20, 2019, 11:42:59 PM

One year to halving.
Better get mining and buying.
I don’t want to be nit-picking here: little bit more than one year according to https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/:



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May 21, 2019, 12:05:51 AM

fair 'nough.
 bet you a merit I end up being closer though.
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May 21, 2019, 12:31:33 AM
Merited by RoomBot (1), BobLawblaw (1)

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May 21, 2019, 01:38:38 AM

Quote
The next wave isn't your grandma. It's institutions and pension funds.
The wave after that also isn't your grandma. It's central banks and governments.
I don't think old people will ever enter Bitcoin en masse.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1130298125388832768

So is.

Highlighted stupid part is stupid. Jimmy Song and everyone he knows will be "old people" by the time the second wave comes. "Old people" of the future will be buying Bitcoin like the old people of today buy PMs.
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May 21, 2019, 01:46:49 AM


Oh yeah, but...bbut... can they stuff databases into tiny boxes too?? Sheesh, right, let's see 'em do that shit. I dare 'em. Yeah. Now that would be somethin'.

/tinysarcasm
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May 21, 2019, 02:15:44 AM

Quote
The next wave isn't your grandma. It's institutions and pension funds.
The wave after that also isn't your grandma. It's central banks and governments.
I don't think old people will ever enter Bitcoin en masse.
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1130298125388832768

So is.

Highlighted stupid part is stupid. Jimmy Song and everyone he knows will be "old people" by the time the second wave comes. "Old people" of the future will be buying Bitcoin like the old people of today buy PMs.







-------



the evening wall report

Bitcoin continues to trade near $8k on declining volume. Sideways consolidation mixed with periods of volatility is my guess as support and resistance ranges are tested at $7.9k.

#dyor
1h


4h


D

#stronghands'19


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May 21, 2019, 03:13:52 AM

1h snapshot


Possible local bottom detected..Tuesday might not be completely horrible after all.  We might even bounce off of the 50ma again.

#dyor

#stronghands
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May 21, 2019, 03:54:40 AM

@JJG  keep writing long post bro, no matter what other thinks of it (which I know you don't bother). some of us find your posts valuable because you are always kind enough to share your experience. good or bad its another discussion.






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May 21, 2019, 04:07:21 AM

Quote

Quote
After the pullback on Thursday night, the bears are at it again. Yes the same "experts" that have been calling for a huge pullback since, let me check 4k, are ignoring the structure and proportion of this rally which is clearly bullish . Unfortunately many have missed out on the rally or simply flip their calls depending on the direction of the wind. One simple pullback and they are making up patterns or simply covering their tracks with IF statements and no clear calls one way or the other. I consider this weather forecasting not Technical Analysis .

I'll be straight forward here: BUY THE DIP!

Let me make a prelude. This article is for investors and position traders, not swing or daytrading. Different strategies with different intents.

Bitcoin continues to simply grind higher and quite frankly the run is likely not over yet. The current pullback or wave (4) of the bullish swing, is proportional to wave (2). In my opinion this is likely the lower end of the consolidation we are seeing currently. Can we go lower? Sure, but broader bullish momentum is picking up, not slowing down. In addition the selloff Thursday night, or Friday morning, depending on where you are, was absorbed quickly. Across social media, complaints about not being able to sign in and buy the dip.

Pessimists Abound

There are also way to many pessimists and bears around still calling for lower levels or capitulation to new lows. Don't kid yourself, few if any of these guys have bought during the low, or already sold their load of coins. Remember the calls for "LOCK IN PROFITS" at 4000-4500 and 5k? Way to early, and we actually added at 5150, though we trimmed half of that position off at 6300. We figured it was an area that we could at least buy back if it did move higher. Well maybe I was wrong, but we are still holding a position from 3550 and half of one from 5150 and freed up some capital on Thursday to buy the dip. Regardless we got the bulk of this move, and are ready to add.

In my opinion anything under 7k is a buying area now. Just looking at the structure of the chart, momentum is picking up not slowing down. We also have a three wave fractal cycle that appears to be structurally and proportionally correct forming a mid term wave (3). With wave (4) proportional to wave (2) we can look at wave (5) being proportional to wave (1) and this puts us at around 9k. Now this is just a preliminary target and more of a guide of where we want to look for a top. This would complete wave "1" in the broader cycle, on our path to 24k.

One thing I can tell you is that attempting to short a market where buying momentum is picking up, in the face of pessimists is a risky endeavor. In addition shorting here is extremely dangerous as wave (2) was drawn out, and wave (4)'s are generally the opposite of wave 2's so this could be quick and simple. A drop and pop, sucking in shorts, and stopping them out.

Ignoring a Fundamental Change:

Many are so stuck in their own bias they are ignoring the fundamental change to this market and are actually part of the sentiment driving the market. Just look at the top articles on TV and on social outlets. Calls for 4500 have turned to 5500 which implies even the most bearish of the bears are raising their targets. Sure there is still that guy clinging onto a capitulation into the abyss, but overall bears are raising support levels. Something to consider as it pertains to market sentiment.

I still can't believe many are ignoring the liquidity and access trading platforms like TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Motif Investing and Fidelity will bring to the market. You think Coinbase is adding crap coins at a record pace after years of only wanting the premium coins? It is because the fundamentals of the market are about to change and most of these exchanges are going to go belly up. Coinbase is attempting to position ahead of the change.

This is simple fruition and the only thing many of these crappy exchanges can cling to is crap coins. No moving average, oscillator or other indicator is going to give you a heads up on this fundamental change. These markets provide access to 10's of millions of traders with Trillions of dollars in assets.

However price action is clearly showing us this is happening. All these market gurus are selling their inventory to someone, and do you think that someone is the retail investor? You know the guy yelling SELL at every technical level only to see the market get away? Or those calling for H&S patterns, diverging bats and butterfly dreams, that are meaningless in these market conditions? Or those that just forecast the weather and never have the gonads to make an actual call.

Here is a call:

Buy the dip and put it away, the path is clear for 24k. Ok I have been watching Gotham episodes on Netflix . Favorite character so far, the penguin! I digress.

Can 4500 happen:

Sure it can, we are not naive to make a statement that it is impossible. We never thought we would see 3200. We did, but we had a plan and 5 months later we are back to and above where we were and profited from this. The difference is we can hold and add into an improbable move when we are wrong. We took advantage of the improbable, and now are sitting in a descent position. Of course we always think, boy I wish I would have added more, but hey I wish I bought Amazon at $5 in 2002 too and played 6-2 off-suit with 3 all ins the other night in the tournament only to see 662 hit the board.

Those levels are likely gone, so we look at moving forward.

Do you want to continue to watch Bitcoin move higher, and miss every opportunity to add? Hey pulls back to 4500, I am a buyer, it is all about position size. I said that at 3550 when the trolls gave me crap, calling for 2k. I said if it gets there I am a buyer too, by the way where are all those guys lately? Regardless I would have kept adding into the dip as my time frame is long term. If it pushes back to 4500 I will be adding more.

As I have written about here and on our site for weeks. 3500 & 4500 are likely gone and hoping it gets back there before you add might have you missing out on the broader move. Also if you didn't have the balls to buy the pullback to 3500, you will likely get cold feet if we get to 4500. Remember all those at 6k last year waiting to buy 4500 or 3500 yet got scared when it got there? There are scared investors and there are bold investors, you have to determine which one you are. I never seen a scared investor make any money.

We are looking to buy this dip! THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!
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