Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CryptStorm]

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Thoughts?

DPR's mother?

I'm scared.

Has ties to Silk Road coins, Coinbox.me and LetsDice.com .. interesting

How big do you think SR was compared to, lets say, Satoshi Dice in BTC volume?

Somebody put the numbers in their sig (I know that's not a metric)

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[Pruden]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration

The rate of increase is defined relative to the value, which makes it constant in an exponential curve. It's like 100$ increase now feels like 10$ increase in May.

To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.

However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?

EDIT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_exponential_function

[Richy_T]

The real problem with that chart is that it needs to taper to reflect adoption of capital (not users) to conform to the Sigmoid. Because, isn't price what we are discussing here!?

It's an interesting question of how price relates to adoption. Should we expect the curves to be similar?

Adoption might be the more interesting (though harder) metric to understand.

[BayAreaCoins]

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Thoughts?

DPR's mother?

I'm scared.

Has ties to Silk Road coins, Coinbox.me and LetsDice.com .. interesting

How big do you think SR was compared to, lets say, Satoshi Dice in BTC volume?

SR is what made bitcoins what they are today. Period

[BitchicksHusband]

Whats all this about bitcoin not being a convenient payment method? Scan QR code, click send, whats more convenient?

I gave 0.01BTC to a friend last night. It took less than 2 minutes for him to install a wallet on his phone, me to initiate the transaction and get 1 confirmation.

I suggest everyone who can do something similar

And in the US, you can e-mail anyone from Coinbase and it will prompt them to make an account to pick it up within 60 days.  After that, if they don't, it reverts back to you.

I borrowed $2 cash for the vending machines from a fellow bitcoin user and mailed him back $2 from Coinbase at the exact same time.  (Probably worth $6 now.)

He signed up with Coinbase and got the $2.  Couldn't have been easier.

[adamstgBit]

i'm feeling nostalgic

check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc

[Richy_T]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration

The rate of increase is defined relative to the value, which makes it constant in an exponential curve. It's like 100$ increase now feels like 10$ increase in May.

To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.

However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?

Nope. For an exponential, df(x)/dx =f(x)

So for an exponential curve in time, the rate of change is proportional the the exponential. And the rate of change of the rate of change is also proportional to the exponential (i.e. increasing with time) and so on.

Oh, I see you're talking percentage change. In which case you're correct but that's not correctly called the rate of change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function

The derivative (rate of change) of the exponential function is the exponential function itself. More generally, a function with a rate of change proportional to the function itself (rather than equal to it) is expressible in terms of the exponential function. This function property leads to exponential growth and exponential decay.

[CryptStorm]

The real problem with that chart is that it needs to taper to reflect adoption of capital (not users) to conform to the Sigmoid. Because, isn't price what we are discussing here!?

It's an interesting question of how price relates to adoption. Should we expect the curves to be similar?

Adoption might be the more interesting (though harder) metric to understand.

I don't think price and adoption curves will correlate 1:1-- before mass adoption are both speculators and start-up innovations to infrastructure. We are only beginning to see whiffs of institutional investment. If/when institutions pull the trigger, it will be a scramble for them to take positions that are 100M - 1B USD. That's the game changer for po' folk, like us.

[ag@th0s]

This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.

When you're in a hole, dig faster?

Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.

You can't get out of a hole by digging - you need to find something that is about to defy gravity to lift you out

What if you dug sideways at a gentle upward trajectory?  Or dug out stairs?

Stairs would bury you for sure, but gandhibt already nailed it, and yes a gentle upward trajectory is another way to go. Not sure I want to spend that much time in the dark  Faster, Upward - are we ready to ignite Solid Fuel!  YES WE ARE.

[chriswilmer]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration

The rate of increase is defined relative to the value, which makes it constant in an exponential curve. It's like 100$ increase now feels like 10$ increase in May.

To sum things up, there is nothing over-exponential in a sigmoid curve, so in a logarithmic chart you would never expect anything faster than a straight line.

However, some physical effects can be over-exponential, like the factorial numbers that appeared in rpietila's model of diffusion. Do you know any others? Maybe nuclear reactions or something like that?

Nope. For an exponential, df(x)/dx =f(x)

So for an exponential curve in time, the rate of change is proportional the the exponential. And the rate of change of the rate of change is also proportional to the exponential (i.e. increasing with time) and so on.

Oh, I see you're talking percentage change. In which case you're correct but that's not correctly called the rate of change.

An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.

However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.

[ChartBuddy]

[BitchicksHusband]

Here is the thread where SlipperySlope plotted the Sigmoid onto a graph in Google Docs (about page 4-5):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0

Read the whole thing if you are interested in technology adoption curves (or at least to where AnonyMint grinds it into the ground).

[Richy_T]

An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.

However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.

(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)

[ag@th0s]

This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.

When you're in a hole, dig faster?

Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.

You can't get out of a hole by digging - you need to find something that is about to defy gravity to lift you out

Sure you can. Dig on one side of the hole and use the dirt to build something that gets you up on the other side of the hole.

Lol - you're right, obviously.  As long as you start cutting into the sides above your head, you'll be safe - thanks.

[maz]

i'm feeling nostalgic

check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc

Lol, those prices....

Make u wanna cry

[Adrian-x]

Bitcoin still has some way to go, all this news isn't getting through.

11:04 unsolicited call from a financial adviser trying to solicit business for a major Canadian institution.

S: I hope I haven't caught you at a bad time?
M: it depends, is it important
S: I'll let you decide
M: Ok
S: .... gives me his why? Cant remember
M: So what would you suggest I do with $X in Bitcoin today.
S: Excuse me, is that some kind of public traded company?
M:  No its more like a commodity.
S: I haven't herd of it.
M: I suggest you look it up; I have to go good buy.

[jojo69]

i'm feeling nostalgic

check out my youtube channel, its hilarious!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc

tahm to check teh bitcoinz

[Rampion]

This thread is quite bullish. Panic buying is in the air

[BayAreaCoins]

[italeffect]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.