Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off unit their issued with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

The only thing I did with Gox is send BTC over there to liquidate and buy new BTC at lower prices to send back to coinbase where the price is about the same to sell...

[ag@th0s]

Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

[mb300sd]

Well, second market has no need for usd withdrawals for a while, they have some kind of no sell policy for at least a few months.

[chriswilmer]

An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.

However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.

(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

[beaconpcguru]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

If the price right now is over five times higher than it was at the start of October and the money on the order books has grown almost three times.. where do you suspect these additional funds came from?

[oda.krell]

fucking saved :D

[BitchicksHusband]

Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

decent Charities...Greenpeace ?!?

[crazy_rabbit]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

One word: Volume.

Despite gox's problem, they have the highest volume and the most amount of experience handling the most amount of money. You could probably trust bitstamp with that much money, but good luck buying a million dollars without radically changing the price and losing to slippage.

Gox has problems, but they always sort them out- supposidly the larger you are a client, the faster they sort things out too. :-)  

[mccorvic]

Total bids past $35mil on Gox.  Pretty sure this is an ATH for that.

[Rampion]

Total bids past $35mil on Gox.  Pretty sure this is an ATH for that.

FYI:

[Pruden]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

[elg]

noob question: how come Stamp and Gox are on the same btc value now?

[bassclef]

$34.8 million now on the Gox order book. This is up from around $13 million at the start of October.

I understand continuing to use Gox as I've been using them since the very beginning, but I certainly wouldn't be sending them additional $ if I wanted to buy BTC in the last few months.

Is this perhaps USD that was always there, but not on the order book? Or are folks really sending new $ there? Perhaps the Second Market guys? Other large investors? I could see them not going to Bitstamp due the lack of liquidity. I still believe (no evidence) that Gox has private deals with large players for USD withdrawals. But they can't risk opening up that faucet to everyone and having it turned off until their issues with the US Gov and CoinLab are addressed.

One word: Volume.

Despite gox's problem, they have the highest volume and the most amount of experience handling the most amount of money. You could probably trust bitstamp with that much money, but good luck buying a million dollars without radically changing the price and losing to slippage.

Gox has problems, but they always sort them out- supposidly the larger you are a client, the faster they sort things out too. :-)  

Agreed. There are a lot of old traders and early adopter coins there. Despite their issues, they were first in the game and have the most market depth to purchase/trade large amounts of coins. I would not be surprised at all to hear they have private deals with big investors.

[TERA]

[bassclef]

noob question: how come Stamp and Gox are on the same btc value now?

My guess is someone figured out how to arb between China/Gox/Stamp.

[jojo69]

I think so

so we're looking for the next blowoff around 2200?

[Richy_T]

Anybody know if there are any decent Charities that take Bitcoin yet for donations?  Like Greenpeace or WaterAid or Medecin sans frontiere or whatever?  I'd like to stick someone else's address in my sig.

The Internet Archive recently suffered from a fire. They take Bitcoins

http://archive.org/donate/

[Pruden]

The Internet Archive recently suffered from a fire. They take Bitcoins

http://archive.org/donate/

Lol, no matter what century we live in, archives still suffer from fires. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_patent_office_fire_of_1836

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Personnel_Records_Center_fire

[notme]

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

I am testing this in fooplot.com but it still looks exponential. A superexponential growth would look like a line curving upwards in the log-chart, and there is nothing like that, only straight lines, steeper with greater exponents, granted.

I agree... the second derivative of ln(f(x)^n) is <= 0 for all x with n >= 0

I other words, the slope will never increase.

[Richy_T]

An exponential function is an exactly straight line on a logarithmic plot - and if the rate slows, it will go from linear to horizontal.

However, an "S-shaped" adoption curve could be a sigmoid function raised to some arbitrary power. If f(x) is a sigmoid function, then f(x)^2 will look like a sigmoid with a steeper vertical, and f(x)^100 will look like a step function (going from 0 adoption to 100% adoption in one day). So, if the power is somewhere between 1 and 2, it will look super-exponential for some period on the log plot.

(e^x)^2 = e^x * e^x = e^(x+x) which is still a straight exponential (This also applies to raising to any abitrary power)

Sorry if I wasn't clear. f(x) in my example is not e^x

f(x) = 1/(1+e^(-x))

If you raise this function to higher and higher powers, it will look more and more like a step function and have a super-exponential growth phase on a log-chart (in the limit, it will look like a step function on the log chart as well as the linear chart)

OK. Gotcha. Though I'm not sure it's good to plot that directly on a log chart as the offsets are wrong for an adoption. Probably want the Gompertz function but I have no idea how that behaves on a log chart.