Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ag@th0s]

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

Better to learn from the mistakes of others than your own.

Either way you always have to understand why if you want to learn.

And it's much harder to learn "why" from other people's mistakes - emotional distance often produces laughter or derision.  That's why I enjoy footage of people falling over

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[Chainsaw]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

ditto +1 well put.

EDIT:  So the question becomes where are we on the innovator => laggard scale? I would think still in the innovator coming up to early adopter pdq.

This is exactly the sort of conversation and counterpoints I was hoping to see.  This isn't my expertise.

I think any attempt to compare Bitcoin to electricity, TV, etc must take the position that we are still very, very early in the adoption cycle.

What's interesting is the notion that there are at least two competing curves at work at once. I saw someone put an overlay of a sigmoid curve with another graph shape yesterday, but didn't see post-analysis or discussion of what that would be, or why it would be that way.  Maybe I just missed it.

[dasein]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

ditto +1 well put.

EDIT:  So the question becomes where are we on the innovator => laggard scale? I would think still in the innovator coming up to early adopter pdq.

This is exactly the sort of conversation and counterpoints I was hoping to see.  This isn't my expertise.

I think any attempt to compare Bitcoin to electricity, TV, etc must take the position that we are still very, very early in the adoption cycle.

What's interesting is the notion that there are at least two competing curves at work at once. I saw someone put an overlay of a sigmoid curve with another graph shape yesterday, but didn't see post-analysis or discussion of what that would be, or why it would be that way.  Maybe I just missed it.

The sigmoid curve is the cumulative frequency distribution and the normal distribution is the same diffusion but not measured cumulatively. This post might be helpful: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=341681.msg3675891#msg3675891

[Chalkbot]

[Chainsaw]

The sigmoid curve is the cumulative frequency distribution and the normal distribution is the same diffusion but not measured cumulatively. This post might be helpful: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=341681.msg3675891#msg3675891

Thanks very much for pointing me in the right direction, dasein - I'll read up on that.

[chiliftw]

Choo the moon!

[bitcoinbible]

and you thought i was kidding when i said this train was going to the moon


http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/22/virgin-galactic-bitcoin-space-flights-payment




ch00000000 ch000000000000 m0th0rf0ock0rz!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!

man i better get busy with those faucets! hahaa  

[bitcodo]

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Thoughts?

DPR's mother?

I'm scared.

[adamstgBit]

and you thought i was kidding when i said this train was going to the moon


http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/22/virgin-galactic-bitcoin-space-flights-payment




ch00000000 ch000000000000 m0th0rf0ock0rz!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!

man i better get busy with those faucets! hahaa  

ch00000000 ch000000000000 m0th0rf0ock0rz!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!

is right!

wowzers!

in 2012 goat was on a boat

in 2014 goat will be on a spaceship?

 

[beaconpcguru]

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Thoughts?

DPR's mother?

I'm scared.

Has ties to Silk Road coins, Coinbox.me and LetsDice.com .. interesting

[Richy_T]

I've been trying to answer the question, "what would the S-curve representing a hyper-monetization event look like on a log scale?"

I'm starting to think it would retain its S shape in both the linear and logarithmic scales.

Typically the bottom of the S resembles an exponential function so on a log scale, it would be a straight line at the beginning, rounding to horizontal over time

[Richy_T]

Whats all this about bitcoin not being a convenient payment method? Scan QR code, click send, whats more convenient?

I gave 0.01BTC to a friend last night. It took less than 2 minutes for him to install a wallet on his phone, me to initiate the transaction and get 1 confirmation.

I suggest everyone who can do something similar

[CryptStorm]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

ditto +1 well put.

EDIT:  So the question becomes where are we on the innovator => laggard scale? I would think still in the innovator coming up to early adopter pdq.

This is exactly the sort of conversation and counterpoints I was hoping to see.  This isn't my expertise.

I think any attempt to compare Bitcoin to electricity, TV, etc must take the position that we are still very, very early in the adoption cycle.

What's interesting is the notion that there are at least two competing curves at work at once. I saw someone put an overlay of a sigmoid curve with another graph shape yesterday, but didn't see post-analysis or discussion of what that would be, or why it would be that way.  Maybe I just missed it.

Yeah, I saw that post-- I think they had the adoption scale and the sigmoid curve overlaid, and someone asked what was the bell curve doing there. Well, of course, the bell curve represents the entire population, so distributes the population across that adoption. I think it is quite the conflation to just plop them on top of each other, but I'm only talking out the back side of my body.

To me the adoption scale is the one to consider, and perhaps the body of skeptics here are trying to determine what will be the 'chasm' that Bitcoin must cross if it is to get from early bleeding to leading edge? Blockchain issues (sizing, transaction speed/max, and off-blockchain transactions) appear to be the soup-du-jour replacement for the resistance that 'yesterday' (actually Monday!) was the concern about whether in US 'the bitcoin' is legal.

Now that we have overwhelming smashed the living shit out of that hurdle, the market deflates with the tiniest whimper, and appears to quite happily absorb most of the run-up, heading towards support near 4-700 (someone technical could do better). It's actually great that the tin-foilists are saying DARPA created bitcoin and Satoshi is an evil assassin Bilderberg (ok, WHATEVER they said, idk).

tl;dr Makes me think $1500 and 3000 aren't too far off, but I wonder whether there's still a chance for juicy coins in the next 2 weeks. To Da Moon, for shizo!!

[adamstgBit]

this is our history, never stop believing poeple, we are free men!

[ag@th0s]

Ripple is based on trust. it will fail.

All transactions are based on trust.  Since mankind first began bartering.

They're based on Trust because Fear is the backstop.  All beasts are resource dependent and vulnerable - none of us are Gods. I'm agnostic about Ripple, but either I'm an imbecile or I just can't put together in my head how it actually works.  

[oda.krell]

I've been trying to answer the question, "what would the S-curve representing a hyper-monetization event look like on a log scale?"

I'm starting to think it would retain its S shape in both the linear and logarithmic scales.

Typically the bottom of the S resembles an exponential function so on a log scale, it would be a straight line at the beginning, rounding to horizontal over time

Thanks.

I don't know how this idea got started, but the graph posted by justusranvier is decidedly not a sigmoid function, it appears to be an exponential function when mapped on a log chart, which would make it a super-exponential function.

[Richy_T]

Logarithmic growth can't be the long term fit.  Sqrt(x) seems like it would never have the rate-of-increase-is-increasing quality, which we are currently seeing.

Isn't the sigmoid curve an exponential at the start that falls behind with growth? Nowhere is an increase in the rate of increase to be seen in a sigmoid curve. The so called "vertical" phase is exponential-turned-linear on its way to saturation, but I might be wrong.

In an exponential, the increase in the rate of increase is proportional to the rate of increase. So yes, you do see that acceleration

[tomjo7]

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Thoughts?

DPR's mother?

I'm scared.

Has ties to Silk Road coins, Coinbox.me and LetsDice.com .. interesting

How big do you think SR was compared to, lets say, Satoshi Dice in BTC volume?

[CryptStorm]

I've been trying to answer the question, "what would the S-curve representing a hyper-monetization event look like on a log scale?"

I'm starting to think it would retain its S shape in both the linear and logarithmic scales.

Typically the bottom of the S resembles an exponential function so on a log scale, it would be a straight line at the beginning, rounding to horizontal over time

Thanks.

I don't know how this idea got started, but the graph posted by justusranvier is decidedly not a sigmoid function, it appears to be an exponential function when mapped on a log chart, which would make it a super-exponential function.

Haha, right!? The whole point of the straight line on a log is that it represents the exponential straight-line increase (parabolic).

The real problem with that chart is that it needs to taper to reflect adoption of capital (not users) to conform to the Sigmoid. Because, isn't price what we are discussing here!?

[Richy_T]

Ripple is based on trust. it will fail.

All transactions are based on trust.  Since mankind first began bartering.

They're based on Trust because Fear is the backstop.  All beasts are resource dependent and vulnerable - none of us are Gods. I'm agnostic about Ripple, but either I'm an imbecile or I just can't put together in my head how it actually works.  

It works on the theory that when that guy borrowed that tool, you actually get it back.