Bitcoin Forum
May 26, 2024, 03:09:25 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

Pages: « 1 ... 24664 24665 24666 24667 24668 24669 24670 24671 24672 24673 24674 24675 24676 24677 24678 24679 24680 24681 24682 24683 24684 24685 24686 24687 24688 24689 24690 24691 24692 24693 24694 24695 24696 24697 24698 24699 24700 24701 24702 24703 24704 24705 24706 24707 24708 24709 24710 24711 24712 24713 [24714] 24715 24716 24717 24718 24719 24720 24721 24722 24723 24724 24725 24726 24727 24728 24729 24730 24731 24732 24733 24734 24735 24736 24737 24738 24739 24740 24741 24742 24743 24744 24745 24746 24747 24748 24749 24750 24751 24752 24753 24754 24755 24756 24757 24758 24759 24760 24761 24762 24763 24764 ... 33383 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390448 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Raja_MBZ
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1862
Merit: 1505



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:40:34 PM

There's no need to be upset. Roll Eyes
ðºÞæ
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1176
Merit: 297


Bitcoin © Maximalist


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:40:52 PM

True Bitcoiners do not think in terms of 'cashing out'.
True Bitcoiners are rare in this part of town, mostly confirmed no coiners.
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3542
Merit: 9668


#1 VIP Crypto Casino


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:41:58 PM

who bought at the top?

Me but I’m constantly buying any way. You don’t lose anything if you don’t sell.

1BTC = 1BTC

I’ll buy tomorrow too Smiley
mindrust
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3262
Merit: 2440



View Profile WWW
September 10, 2019, 07:46:27 PM

This is what I was telling you about that gold/btc correlation.

Gold is -%0.8 and BTC makes a nosedive. Can't be a coincidence.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3724
Merit: 10318


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:47:58 PM

~Snip~

+1
Holy Moly Stash management 101

Tweak it a little bit JSRAW?  Something like that might work for you?  Perhaps?

Yeah, it could, for sell plans everyone needs their tweaking according to their target, situations, etc. Timing of price increment in each stage is crucial, though. Unfortunately, no one can predict this scenario or downtrend, so I am not rigid with my sell stage.

Before, I start to comment, let's remember, again, that I was responding to some of the goals that mindrust had presented, including that he was planning to cash out everything at $100k, so the parameters of his thinking was different from yours,  even though some variation of that same cashing out projection could still work for you, JSRAW, with some tweaking... and maybe even you would not start cashing out until after $150k or whatever is comfortable for your situation...  

Let's take the next potential BTC price top, for example, even if you cannot know whether the top will be $17k, $30k, $50k, $73.659k, $500k, $1million or some other amount and you also cannot know if the BTC price is going to go shooting up all at once or if it is going to take several attempts at it, fake outs down or up or even take years and years to get there.  

Part of the point of making a plan and seeing the plan on paper (or in your  excel spreadsheet) is that you should be able to set some sell numbers that make you comfortable no matter what the scenario, and let the BTC price come to you.  

Of course, if a decent amount of time passes, and the BTC price does not come to you, then your circumstances might change too in terms of your cash flow being better or worse.  You might consider whether you should tweak or completely change your BTC sell stage plan based on your changed circumstances.  Those might be degree type decisions rather than all or nothing, but sometimes circumstances could change so drastically that you pretty much have to completely abandon your previous plan(s).

Making a plan does not lock you into the plan, except to the extent that you have conviction to tell yourself that you are locked into such plan (until you decide that you are not).

If you set your sell amounts in line with your own feelings about cash to BTC balance, you should not be getting upset because you sold 10% of your BTC stash at $16,748.87 and another 10% of your stash at $29,374.37 when the BTC price shot up to a million, and when the price reached $1million you only have 5% or even less of your original stash left because you did not expect the BTC price to go shooting up so much.  

Your sell plan should account for the possibility that the BTC price goes shooting up and that is the best case scenario that you could find yourself in, but at the same time, shooting straight up is an outlier in terms of likelihood, so you should not be gambling your whole BTC stash on that possibility and holding through the whole shooting up when your odds are quite likely to be wrong, but if you cash out along the way UP, even if you make less, it still ended up being the best scenario for you to have set your BTC sell orders along the way up while not taking so many risks (psychological and financial) by holding your BTC all the way through.  

So, yeah, BTC price shooting up is not a bad problem to have, and you can even see approximately how much dollars and BTC you will have at each of the various price stages, and to better be able to hypothesize at each of the stages if you are mostly comfortable with that result, and if you are not mostly comfortable, then tweak it.  If you keep on tweaking, you are going to realize that there is almost no situation in which you are going to be completely comfortable, so in this regard don't let your concept of perfect become the enemy of what will be decently good results... while you still become richie under a variety of scenarios and don't be whining because you could have been 3x more richie when you had already achieved very comfortable richie status.

And I believe no one (at least me) want to be in any situation where corn hitting 500K or arguably million (or more) in next 10-15 years. And they left with less corn because as times goes by, living of cost is going to up as well simultaneously.

Well, if you have a longer timeline in terms of age or years to live, then you should be able to let more of the BTC ride on the way up a lot more without feeling anxious about cashing out, but you still might consider instead of cashing out 10% maybe you could cash out 1% or some other comfortable number for downside insurance purposes.  

Yeah, you don't necessarily want to cash out in the next couple of years (as a millionaire or something like that)  and you are in your early 30s and you have almost all of your value in dollars and almost none in bitcoin. That would be ridiculous in my thinking, so in those circumstances, it seems more prudent that you should be letting larger amounts of your btc ride through the volatility, and you surely have to account for your timeline and your ability to live off of the value that you are cashing out.  

Of course, if you have already built up a sizeable stash, then that might be a different situation too, so if the value of the BTC that you are cashing out ends up being several million instead of $1million (and this amount is going to vary for everyone in terms of where they live and where they expect to live with cost of living) or even $10million, then you might consider that you are able to put some of that $10million to work too, and maybe even if you are young then you attempt to keep a kind of parity with your bitcoin stash depending on the amounts.  In other words, maybe you have cashed out $10million in dollars but you also have $5million still in bitcoin.  You have to figure out which amounts are comfortable for you and timeline and amount are going to be relevant factors.    Yeah, we can divide these numbers by 10 and the concept still makes sense depending on your situation, but if you divide the numbers by 10, then it might be less compelling for anyone to consider that s/he has reached a nearly unambiguous level of richie as to be able to support himself/herself on the passive income from that accumulated value through the rest of life.  

Again, BTC prices going shooting up is not a bad problem to have, and no matter what you are going to be uncomfortable with  "what ifs" but in my thinking you are going to be a whole hell of a lot more comfortable if you go through the BTC price projections (on excel or whatever) and then attempt to learn from those BTC price projections in light of your holdings and when you learn, you can tweak along the way while becoming much less emotional than you would have been in the event that you had not created any kind of price projection plan at all.


Similarly, there are tons of other factors too. It could work for some peeps who already in their 40s-50s but for the younger generation its kind of tricky situation.
So, I agree that if you have 30 or 50 or more years that you have to be able to live off of the proceeds of your BTC stash, then you are likely going to want to have either a sufficient amount of stash or some of it working for you in various regards so it continues to generate income, but at certain points you can still be withdrawing some of your stash too, especially if you reach certain thresholds, and maybe if you pass certain bounds, then you know that you can enjoy your consumption preferences... such as hookers, lambos, blows etc. or alternatively yachts, planes and other property

That's the only reason I am not going to touch my retirement stash at any cost even if it hits a significant amount of price.

As you likely noticed from my above responses, I understand the concept of age, including that you should be tweaking your BTC cashing out plan according to age, and surely you should not be cashing out to engage in consumption and have little to no working capital until either you have built a large enough BTC stash that you will not run out of either BTC or dollars, especially if you are using it for many years.  On the other hand, if you are older, then you know that you need to start cashing some of it out and consumption might be a good thing, at that point.

Also, I am thinking of some back up for retirement stash. If by any chance something goes wrong because you never know what tricks future holds for you.

Of course.. long term thinking, and if you are a young person and still building your BTC stash, even if bitcoin goes up to $1million and drops 90% or more, it is still likely good to keep some value in bitcoin, because bitcoin is going to likely continue to be a good investment.  If in the future, there is either some better investment or bitcoin is no longer a good investment, then, of course, any of us should be ready, willing and able to diversify out of bitcoin and into whatever other assets might be better investments.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2506
Merit: 2972



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:48:24 PM

I think I bought something at the very (local) bottom. Got lucky with a stop. My suffering long position has increased, and its liquidation price got closer to 3k.  Cool

I'm willing to risk moar and bring my liquidation price just under 5k, or even higher. But I'll have to wait until 15k before getting that bold.  Wink
Ludwig Von
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854
Merit: 307



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:50:14 PM

who bought at the top?

Not WO, we sold at the top, remember  Cheesy

(at least those who trade)



On a different thought, the guys (PBOC?) who are doing these dumps, they seem to have very good TA, it is everytime under the same conditions and everytime a bit of a surprise. Well, that last thing, no more a surprise but recurring... . Grin Grin

Moar fiat to Stamp, hopefully now my bankrunner knows the road... . Cheesy
xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3850
Merit: 8180



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:52:33 PM
Merited by Ludwig Von (1)

No worries guys, we can still afford a week in Costinesti.  Maybe not at the Impact G however...
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3822
Merit: 4927


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:53:23 PM

This is a fine indicator to follow during bull and bear markets as a trader.



https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1171160390111072256

I can't seem to find a Realtime MVRV-z calculator, do you have a link?
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3542
Merit: 9668


#1 VIP Crypto Casino


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 07:57:28 PM
Merited by Raja_MBZ (1)

@JJG

You should charge for these personal portfolio cashing out strategies.
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3822
Merit: 4927


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 08:03:03 PM

Over the last year a ridiculous amount of hashpower has come online.  It has more than doubled since it's recent low 2018/19.

Who is adding the new machines?

Is there a new chip out there we have not really met yet?

I am seriously been waiting for a big gun like Samsung to start bringing their first chips online.

There just is not that much room to improve on either the base layer nor the logic. Silicon is at such a compressed node there are minuscule gains for the last few years and sha-256 is just a simple algorithm. Maybe there are some being kicked out on TSMC 7nm (I'm pretty sure all that capacity is spoken for way in advance right now) but even that would be exponential gains.

To get true gains would need as new substrate which it would be possible to see in this space but considering it would come from a company US owned rather than one in a dark nation there is small chance it will pop up in the blue. Similar to QC being on the horizon for the last what 5 years now?
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 5127


Whimsical Pants


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 08:36:05 PM

Over the last year a ridiculous amount of hashpower has come online.  It has more than doubled since it's recent low 2018/19.

Who is adding the new machines?

Is there a new chip out there we have not really met yet?

I am seriously been waiting for a big gun like Samsung to start bringing their first chips online.

There just is not that much room to improve on either the base layer nor the logic. Silicon is at such a compressed node there are minuscule gains for the last few years and sha-256 is just a simple algorithm. Maybe there are some being kicked out on TSMC 7nm (I'm pretty sure all that capacity is spoken for way in advance right now) but even that would be exponential gains.

To get true gains would need as new substrate which it would be possible to see in this space but considering it would come from a company US owned rather than one in a dark nation there is small chance it will pop up in the blue. Similar to QC being on the horizon for the last what 5 years now?

I dunno if some chip manufacturer wanted to get their own design up and running, even if it was the same specs more or less as the existing ones... a BIG house like Samsung could spin out a wafer or two and then bring up a big pile of machines all at once...

I would expect testnet hashrate would have shown some interesting things as well...

600watt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 08:36:58 PM

True Bitcoiners do not think in terms of 'cashing out'.

 Cheesy merited.






and true bitcoiners wouldn´t constantly shill this ongoing "crypto" embarrassment called btrash/bsv
ssmc2
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002
Merit: 1040


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 08:45:50 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

This is a fine indicator to follow during bull and bear markets as a trader.



https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1171160390111072256

I can't seem to find a Realtime MVRV-z calculator, do you have a link?

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/
LUCKMCFLY
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2422
Merit: 1851


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile WWW
September 10, 2019, 08:55:03 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Phil_S (1)

Hi, I wanted to share my analysis:



Where I see that there is an area of ​​opportunity at $ 9298, where I believe that there may be a liquidity zone, I do not believe that it goes down there, as many Bulls are defending that position.

At $ 12303.5 there is a slight ceiling that can be broken with some volume, it is not difficult, since I analyze under Wyckoff's theory. You only need to break the $ 13500 so that after that we begin to confirm the bullish trend.

Finally my analysis is to Days, and the volume that is observed at the moment is not high, it is below the MV Length, which indicates that there is almost no interest in selling, that is, the offer is not very strong for that range, in higher levels I observe it by Tensorcharts and I observe:



Indeed, there is little volume, what I like about this tool is that Red = Sales and Green = Purchases, this gives me a real perspective of what is happening.
gembitz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 639


*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 08:59:42 PM

True Bitcoiners do not think in terms of 'cashing out'.



 Roll Eyes Cry Grin

weeeeeee \\\9k $timburrr
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3738
Merit: 5127


Whimsical Pants


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 09:00:29 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Wow.. we went under 10k...

You know, this may have been the last time you couldffffth  *thump* Ouch!  *BANG*  scrufffle %&$##(&*


Sorry gents,  Just had to "take care" of him before he said something he would regret later...  He'll have a pretty nasty headache when he wakes up, but he'll be alight... don't you guys worry about him...
rebal15
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 527
Merit: 6


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 09:15:17 PM

But I have a plane to disappear, I will move to another village after finding a buyer and cashing hand to hand to all what I have.

Sell the hut, but keep the livestock, this assuming that you have a plan to become a coiner & not in possession of a plane.
Poor Rosie the goat & Lula the camel, are going to have a hard time adjusting to a new partner. Undecided

They have been mostly faithful & they urge you to reconsider.

.

I think they are sweet. No offense & definitely no homo.
And for gawds sake don't disappear. Best of luck. Roll Eyes

I will keep the hut, I need it for some Asics. The electricity fees is equivalent 0.04$/kwatts.
Raja_MBZ
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1862
Merit: 1505



View Profile
September 10, 2019, 09:21:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Lightning Network Developers Warn of Bug That Could Cause Loss of Bitcoin

https://www.coindesk.com/lightning-network-developers-warn-of-bug-that-could-cause-loss-of-bitcoin
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3822
Merit: 4927


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
September 10, 2019, 09:22:16 PM



It looked vaguely familiar and I had to check.
Soo.. which one of you is observing from Romanian seaside?
A shortened link to google street view: https://tinyurl.com/y46jqdmb

Holy shit man how did you know that hole in the wall! GJ
Pages: « 1 ... 24664 24665 24666 24667 24668 24669 24670 24671 24672 24673 24674 24675 24676 24677 24678 24679 24680 24681 24682 24683 24684 24685 24686 24687 24688 24689 24690 24691 24692 24693 24694 24695 24696 24697 24698 24699 24700 24701 24702 24703 24704 24705 24706 24707 24708 24709 24710 24711 24712 24713 [24714] 24715 24716 24717 24718 24719 24720 24721 24722 24723 24724 24725 24726 24727 24728 24729 24730 24731 24732 24733 24734 24735 24736 24737 24738 24739 24740 24741 24742 24743 24744 24745 24746 24747 24748 24749 24750 24751 24752 24753 24754 24755 24756 24757 24758 24759 24760 24761 24762 24763 24764 ... 33383 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!