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Question: Where is the bottom?
<$18,000 - 37 (37.8%)
$18,000-$19,000 - 11 (11.2%)
$19,001-$20,000 - 18 (18.4%)
$20,001-$21,000 - 16 (16.3%)
$21,001-$22,000 - 7 (7.1%)
$22,001-$23,000 - 9 (9.2%)
Total Voters: 98

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25695162 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
vroom
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August 26, 2019, 01:05:49 PM

According to this chart  based off analysing Deribit options pricing, in March 2019 the probability of Bitcoin to be traded at prices around 10K in Sept 2019 was 4-5%.



We all know what happened. Bitcoin ALWAYS does what is the least expected. Now, the probability that in Dec 2019 the price will be around 20K is 7%.



Anyone wants to bet with a 93% probability of success that the price will be under 20K?  Wink I won't!
(The charts were taken from https://twitter.com/skew_markets)


what's the probability for bitcoin to reach 1 million in December 2019? Smiley
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bkbirge
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August 26, 2019, 01:11:11 PM

Nice little pump tonight, figure well slide down to 10,200 and bump right back up, I might put some skin in the game on that feeling, if the buy order doesn't fill then good.

Good call, you got close though I didn't see it hit quite that low.
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August 26, 2019, 01:18:24 PM

~Snip~

what's the probability for bitcoin to reach 1 million in December 2019? Smiley

^ IMHO

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August 26, 2019, 01:29:34 PM

what's the probability for bitcoin to reach 1 million in December 2019? Smiley

Goin' by the chart it looks asymptotically indistinguishable from 0% at 1000k.
Wilhelm
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August 26, 2019, 01:57:31 PM

I was looking at the speculation board round about January 2017
This is a speculation post I found which gives some indication of how wrong we can be.
This guy/gals $10k prediction (as many others) seemed ridiculous.....

If only they knew they would be hitting $19k that year.....  Wink

Other posts were hoping for a $5k to $6k bitcoin and $1k to $2k was reasonable.

So if we now shout $100k is stupid, then don't forget that it could be like 2017 and we might go to a ridiculous $200k-$400k or even higher.  Grin


2k is a joke

it's 10k
Do you really think bitcoin will reach 10k dollar anytime soon, I think we first see a dump to around 500 dollar and than see an upwards trend to 2000 dollar at most. even 200$ is also hard to reach in early future. it must take another halving.
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August 26, 2019, 02:29:36 PM

I was looking at the speculation board round about January 2017
This is a speculation post I found which gives some indication of how wrong we can be.
This guy/gals $10k prediction (as many others) seemed ridiculous.....

If only they knew they would be hitting $19k that year.....  Wink

Other posts were hoping for a $5k to $6k bitcoin and $1k to $2k was reasonable.

So if we now shout $100k is stupid, then don't forget that it could be like 2017 and we might go to a ridiculous $200k-$400k or even higher.  Grin


2k is a joke

it's 10k
Do you really think bitcoin will reach 10k dollar anytime soon, I think we first see a dump to around 500 dollar and than see an upwards trend to 2000 dollar at most. even 200$ is also hard to reach in early future. it must take another halving.

My boss was hacked in April 2017. Ransomware.
They asked for 2 BTC, he sent them to these assholes because he could not afford his web service to be offline for too long. I hope these cunts cashed out to fiat straight away, don't want to believe they made like 35k at the end of that year.
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August 26, 2019, 02:45:04 PM

Oh sure. And since we change our entire body molecular structure every 5 years it's pretty insane to assume the person you have now is the same one as 10 years ago. Things change.

I don't believe that.

Scars, tattoos survive for decades, right?
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August 26, 2019, 02:48:31 PM

Oh sure. And since we change our entire body molecular structure every 5 years it's pretty insane to assume the person you have now is the same one as 10 years ago. Things change.

I don't believe that.

Scars, tattoos survive for decades, right?

Quote
cells are dying and being replaced all the time
https://www.livescience.com/33179-does-human-body-replace-cells-seven-years.html

Note: the cells in the brain don't get replaced when they die.
Hueristic
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Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


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August 26, 2019, 02:55:36 PM

Looks like the altpocalypse is still going strong.
fillippone
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August 26, 2019, 03:21:52 PM
Merited by JSRAW (1)

~Snip~

what's the probability for bitcoin to reach 1 million in December 2019? Smiley

^ IMHO

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Phil_S
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We choose to go to the moon


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August 26, 2019, 03:26:08 PM


Not all of them.

Quote
But the deeper layers of skin, called the dermis, do not go through this cellular turnover and so do not replace themselves. Thus, foreign bodies, such as tattoo dyes, implanted in the dermis will remain.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-the-cells-of-our-skin/
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August 26, 2019, 03:45:31 PM


https://twitter.com/eagletwitt3r/status/1166006316671873024
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August 26, 2019, 04:37:50 PM



erre
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August 26, 2019, 04:47:43 PM

Oh sure. And since we change our entire body molecular structure every 5 years it's pretty insane to assume the person you have now is the same one as 10 years ago. Things change.

I don't believe that.

Scars, tattoos survive for decades, right?

Quote
cells are dying and being replaced all the time
https://www.livescience.com/33179-does-human-body-replace-cells-seven-years.html

Note: the cells in the brain don't get replaced when they die.

Untrue:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuroplasticity

Attention! In my country (central europe) there was a higher radioactive exposure after the radioactive rain on the saturday.
Apparently Russia had the accident again. Amount of radioactivity in my country was doubled but it's still not very high. But if you want to prevent or lower the risk, here are some foods that protects you from the radioactivity.
[...]

What is your country and where can you see the data? As far as I understood the "explosion" was limited in time, and currently there isn't any burning core continuously releasing radiation like in Chernobyl or Fukushima. And the winds seems to have blown most of the radiations into the inner Russia, so I supposed no measure is necessary at all for most of eu (like governments stated), but I can't see live data about radioactive isotopes anywhere....
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August 26, 2019, 04:56:28 PM

https://dailystormer.name/twitter-continues-to-allow-scummy-bitcoin-spam-everywhere/
SuperTA
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August 26, 2019, 05:00:57 PM

Attention! In my country (central europe) there was a higher radioactive exposure after the radioactive rain on the saturday.
Apparently Russia had the accident again. Amount of radioactivity in my country was doubled but it's still not very high. But if you want to prevent or lower the risk, here are some foods that protects you from the radioactivity.
[...]

Quote
is your country and where can you see the data? As far as I understood the "explosion" was limited in time, and currently there isn't any burning core continuously releasing radiation like in Chernobyl or Fukushima. And the winds seems to have blown most of the radiations into the inner Russia, so I supposed no measure is necessary at all for most of eu (like governments stated), but I can't see live data about radioactive isotopes anywhere....



In Slovenia (central Europe)
you could find on this national site
https://www.radioaktivnost.si/rvo_public/RVO/Map

There was a spike after the radioactive rain. There is no more high exposure but the rain already felt down on the ground. So i wouldn't eat any mushrooms right now  Cheesy
realr0ach
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August 26, 2019, 05:08:59 PM

It doesn't seem like Trump is making any effort whatsoever to hide the fact he's a Jew puppet anymore.  Besides the entire doing nothing but shilling for Israel 24 hours a day while ignoring America thing, he hangs out with Macron, the most hated, crooked, Jew puppet on the entire planet.  If he wasn't a puppet, he would be smashing Macron in the face with an iron morning star instead of holding hands together.

lightfoot
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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)


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August 26, 2019, 05:20:26 PM

cells are dying and being replaced all the time
https://www.livescience.com/33179-does-human-body-replace-cells-seven-years.html

Note: the cells in the brain don't get replaced when they die.
[/quote]

Pretty much: The human body is a ship of Theseus in real time. It doesn't replace all at once of course, but at what point does the ship stop being the ship?

* SOT is a thought experiment. In a nutshell you have a ship that fought in a famed battle. So everyone decides to preserve the ship. Over the next couple of hundred years boards are replaced due to wear/rot/whatever. Eventually all boards are replaced. At what point did it cease being the Ship of Theseus?

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August 26, 2019, 05:25:17 PM
Merited by fillippone (1), bkbirge (1)

https://jameso.be/2019/08/24/bitcoin-is-for-this.html

lightfoot
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I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)


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August 26, 2019, 05:25:48 PM

Not all of them.

Quote
But the deeper layers of skin, called the dermis, do not go through this cellular turnover and so do not replace themselves. Thus, foreign bodies, such as tattoo dyes, implanted in the dermis will remain.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-the-cells-of-our-skin/
Kinda. They don't get rubbed away, but they do die and are replaced. However Collagen is not a living thing per se, so like tatoo dye it sticks around.
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