Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

We never closed below the 137 daily MA during the 2017 bull run.  

Right now, we are immediately above the 137 daily MA.




Zoomed in



We are also getting down to the pointy end of the pennant



And volatility as shown by Bollinger band width in the middle bar is way down



When volatility falls very low, it means Bitcoin is winding up for a big move.

What does this all mean?  I am not entirely certain whether we will go up or down, but we are primed for a big explosive move.  The move will probably happen around the Bakkt launch on Monday, and will be preceded by a fake out in the other direction.  

Bullish factors:

* We are in an overall bull market driven by the halvening. Accordingly any bear attacks should be blunted and relatively short lived.  The halvening is only 8 months away.

* There is a fear in the market that Bitcoin will collapse after Bakkt release like it collapsed after the CME and CBOE.  If we all find that Bitcoin does not collapse this week, this may lead to a relief rally.

Neutral factors:

* Daily RSI is at neutral, giving us lots of room to move in either direction.

Bearish factors:

*We are sitting on the 137 MA daily.  There is a “rule” that Bitcoin cannot close below the 137 MA daily. Rules in TA are made to be broken.  Closing below 137 MA daily would make a nice scare for the bears.

*The 2015 fractal tells us we are still running hot and high.  The current price is around the forecast price at halvening.  This suggests we need to take some heat out of the market still.




Conclusion:

Next week is likely to be punctuated by shenanigans and big moves. I remain overall bullish but also short term cautious.  We should expect to break out of the pennant in both directions before finally deciding which way we will go.  

[Fatman3001]

Roach on ignore as well

[jojo69]

Roach on ignore as well

duh

[Fatman3001]

Roach on ignore as well

duh

agreed

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-will-restart-qe-november-how-it-will-do-it

"However, and the reason why stocks shot up just before 3pm ET, is that that's when Powell added that “it’s possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet, earlier than we thought. ... We’ll be looking at this carefully in coming days and taking it up at the next meeting” in late October. Said otherwise, the Fed may not have announcer QE4 yesterday, but it will likely announce it in the very near future.

Sure enough, as Goldman wrote in its FOMC post-mortem, "we took this as a fairly strong hint and now expect the Fed to resume trend growth of its balance sheet in November with permanent OMOs. It is possible that the FOMC will take that opportunity to also reach a final decision on possibly shortening the maturity composition of its purchases, which it discussed at its May meeting."

So what will the Fed's restart of QE POMO (some analysts, such as Morgan Stanley's Matt Hornbach are very sensitive not to call the return of POMO as QE even though both are effectively the monetization of US Treasurys and the US budget deficit) look like?"

"And so, in just two months QE... pardon the Fed's open market purchases of Treasurys, will return after a 5 years hiatus. Just don't call it QE, whatever you do."



Money printers are going to be very busy helping us get to 100k.  Its almost as if they are our employees or personal servants

Yeah so I read that article and have no fucking clue what the hell he was saying ("organic growth" right after they printed that button of cash) so would you ELI5 this shit for us that don't speak "Insider lingo" and know what all those abbreviations mean.

The Fed has a "balance sheet." This is all the securities they own bought with money USD Shitcoins
printed out of thin air. The Fed uses complex jargon that most people dont truly understand like POMO, OMO, SOMA, and QE to obfuscate the fact they are just printing money, which even 5 year olds understand.

The Fed wont let Congress audit them and the American public and most of the American politicians have no idea what assets the Fed is buying and hodling with its printed shitcoins or how many shitcoins they are really printing. We do know that the Fed is Americas largest landlord as they own trillions of dollars worth of residential mortgages.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/how-the-feds-balance-sheet-works-and-why-investors-care
"The Fed’s assets are made up mostly of government-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities that are issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

They are the primary reason housing is unaffordable for most and cities like San Fran have streets covered in poop from hoards of homeless.

If I was a powerful wizard with a magic scepter that could enslave mortal Central Bankers and put them under my spell, I would use this scepter to make the Fed print lots of money and call it POMO, OMO, QE, and lower interest rates to near zero. This would inevitably send my Bitcoin to 1 million usd each and beyond and make me a fabulously wealthy Wizard. Unfortunately I dont have this scepter, but bc Im a lucky SOB the Fed is fulfilling my fantasies by doing this of their own free will.

[realr0ach]

The working narrative is that these will, once again, renew global growth and allow governments, corporations and consumers to go even more deeply into debt.

No smart money takes out debts to expand to service new customers if the customers don't exist due to peak, 1st world, population demographics.  And you can't expand forever on a finite planet so it had to happen at some point. Flooding the country with 3rd world invader baboons that aren't even capable of building or living in a 1st world civilization is the equivalent of trying to power your car by putting bananas in the gas tank.  

Since it's not possible to nigger rig an infinite growth paradigm out of thin air, the debt based currency system that requires infinite growth to exist implodes in massive deflation.  Instead of the banks ceasing to exist from all their loans going bad, the govt just hands them free money to bail them out and keep their balance sheet at non-implosion levels.  The real economy numerical values are still experiencing stagflation or deflation, but the bank bailouts prevents asset prices from deflating to where they should go so nobody can actually afford anything.

Since there's a wage + asset price mismatch, the system and banks then just implode all over again seeking it's previous, natural trajectory of deflation.  People noticed that bailing out banks does absolutely nothing without giving free money to the general population spenders as well to make both parties move in the same direction at once, so now they want to do that.  But giving people free money makes them less productive (assuming the money maintains any actual purchasing power), which then causes the number of goods to decrease making it a seller's market and causing rise in asset prices possibly to hyperinflation levels.  

Anything related to Keynesianism is a dysfunctional joke of unintended consequences and it will all eventually implode in some manner no matter what you do.  There's a reason the coinage act of 1792 states the penalty for debasing the currency is death.  As for Bitcoin, the amount of coins lost per year would always be enormous due to things like strong encryption and death, so all loans denominated in Bitcoin would go bad and you'd have the same deflationary armageddon collapse as the paper fiat situation above, while most physical metals are recovered.  With the exception the bankers have rigged the price of silver too low that causes too much of it to be wasted in applications it shouldn't be and none of it recycled.  The drop in supply will just cause price to skyrocket back to where it should be (several hundred in purchasing power) where it's not wasted and is recycled more like gold.

And no, you cannot force a 'gold only' monetary system like FOA claims and artificially prevent the monetization, price rising, and people using both silver and copper as well.  You have extreme problems with lack of granularity and counterparty risk in a gold only system.  It would never happen.  After the fiat system implodes, people will demand ability to remove counterparty risk and are not going to use some crap like Peter Schiff and George Soros' "Goldmoney" to add granularity to gold by letting them hold it for you and inadvertently be forced into a digital only system.  When metals are used, it's always going to be gold, silver, and copper all at the same time.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Yeah last evening when I went to bed.... I quickly opened the WO and saw XhomerX Made this HAT, thought it was a very cool one... Will wear it for a few days Then gonna go back to the 15K battle HAT

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

WO-brothers in arms

I wish I hand an hand in this picture.

Brother in arms.
I would call it.

Probably one of the next meet ups

[VB1001]

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract

On September 22, a product designed to remake Bitcoin as a mainstream investment for the world's investment managers will go live. When ICE Futures U.S., one of the world's largest commodities markets, opens trading at 8 p.m. ET that day, it will offer Bakkt Daily and Monthly Bitcoin Futures, the first physically delivered crypto-currency contracts ever traded on a federally regulated exchange.

https://fortune.com/2019/09/20/bitcoin-futures-bakkt-launch

I think the movement for Bakkt could start today, according to the article, 08:00 PM ET in New York, close 06:00 PM (* Next day)

[realr0ach]

When ICE Futures U.S., one of the world's largest commodities markets

Have you heard the - I wouldn't call it a conspiracy theory, because it's something the bankers would actually do, but it's pretty out there idea - that the NYSE and commodity markets mostly utilize TWO 'holding companies' for legal ownership of the underlying product, and supposedly if the economic system blows up, all assets are then transferred to these two holding companies and you no longer have a claim on them.  'Who' gets all this 'stuff', hell if I know. But I assume everything would just be plundered by govt and banks in some sort of continuity of govt program.  The only question is the degree of severity in which they can attempt to do this nonsense of literally stealing everything.

[realr0ach]

Roach on ignore as well

Conmen don't like having their con exposed.  One of the worst parts about digital shitcoin scams like Bitcoin - besides the fact it's designed to centralize, has built-in, rent seeking middlemen, doesn't remove counterparty risk, and other things - is the fact that if the monetary system does go bust, it would NEVER just be Bitcoin that existed as the only digital currency (thanks to digital shitcoins having no valid Schelling point).  Govts and corporations everywhere would have their own and attempt to force people into them.

This means you generally have to boycott and reject all of them and demand the use of only physical metals as money to prevent govt and corporations from getting their foot into the door of controlling the money supply.  Most of you shitcoiners are dumb as a sack of potatoes, so you don't understand that cheerleading for one artificial, synthetic, Keynesian currency scam is inadvertently shilling for all of them.  Hell, you're even shilling for the US dollar by claiming the monetary supply can be composed of imaginary widgets instead of money required to be a physical commodity as Aristotle discovered thousands of years ago.

It's also amusing how shitcoiners are Keynesians and lie claiming not to be.  If the prime mover of a system is completely synthetic and arbitrary in nature, it's always Keynesian.  There's no difference from a central banker manually adjusting a lever every few intervals of time to divy out some units of whatever or doing it by automatic script.  Zero.  Scripting Keynesianism doesn't make it not Keynesianism.  All currencies as opposed to physical commodity money are Keynesian schemes.

[Last of the V8s]

now look, no homo, right, but it has to be said, micgoossens' eyes are the most beautiful eyes.
they are large and round and clear and intense
when he looks at you, you feel like a dude.
sorry, The Dude
is it any wonder then that he has attracted the most beautiful woman in all Belgium? the queen, in fact

[fillippone]

Big news for LN, whose security has always been a concern:


The Specs Behind Bitcoin’s Lightning Pass Their First ‘Formal’ Security Test

The results are positive, showing that the underlying cryptography piled together to make the payment system work is sound, the researchers argue.

“All the security-critical parts of the system are rock-solid. This was the expected result – many smart people have collaborated to converge to the current incarnation of lightning network,” Litos told CoinDesk

“The main result is that lightning network is as secure as bitcoin.”

Bitcoin needs a proper layer 2 solution not only to destroy the value proposition of many altcoins, but also to progress to other, more evolute d later 3 solution: the more you build bitcoin, the more become the standard for the internet of money.

[realr0ach]

Big news for LN, whose security has always been a concern:


The Specs Behind Bitcoin’s Lightning Pass Their First ‘Formal’ Security Test

LOL.  They are real desperate to try and scam people into the LN permissioned ledger scam (an exact replica of the already existing banking system) typing shit like that.  Claiming people should use it because "the cryptography is secure" is like claiming Dogecoin should be the world reserve currency solely because the encryption functions.  Hey, JayJuanGee's emails are encrypted.  Maybe JayJuanGee's emails are money also?

[DeathAngel]

Probably one of the next meet ups

Wow, you guys met up in RL? I hope everything went really good. I’d love to be such an OG to get invited.
Any way hopefully some bullish movement when BAKKT begins tomorrow.

[d_eddie]

Wish I could be there
mythical gentlemens club
Observer meetup


#haiku

[P_Shep]

And a very cool memento:

Really great meeting up with my WO brothers. Cool bunch

[alevlaslo]

real application so far we have only thise coins: ETH for usdt, DASH for Venezuela and DOGE for transfer between exchanges

[d_eddie]

real application so far we have only thise coins: ETH for usdt, DASH for Venezuela and DOGE for transfer between exchanges

Bitcoin uselessest
of all the useless cryptos
broken record loops


#haiku

[mindrust]

in reality, only two cryptocurrencies are used so far: eth for usdt and dash for Venezuela

in reality, only two cryptocurrencies are used so far: eth for usdt and dash for Venezuela

in reality, only two cryptocurrencies are used so far: eth for usdt and dash for Venezuela

real application so far we have only thise coins: ETH for usdt, DASH for Venezuela, DOGE for transfer between exchanges and Komodo for Atomicdex

real application so far we have only three coins: ETH for usdt, DASH for Venezuela, DOGE for transfer between exchanges

real application so far we have only three coins: ETH for usdt, DASH for Venezuela, DOGE for transfer between exchanges

Someone report this fuckface for spamming.