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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367407 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
jojo69
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September 07, 2019, 01:23:39 AM

Aiiiiiiggg

those 2023 $30K lows look terrifying
"Bitcoin: the cutting edge of begging technology." -- Giraffe.BTC
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Dabs
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September 07, 2019, 01:26:08 AM

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Hero Member: 480 activity
Legendary: Somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity

1.5 years to Hero. 2 years to Legendary.
Negotiation
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September 07, 2019, 03:50:03 AM

@hcburger1

Coincidentally and independently, an almost identical analysis with power-law ranges for #bitcoin price predictions has been published two days before my article!
Very similar methods, almost identical results!


Source: https://twitter.com/hcburger1/status/1169923209711542273
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September 07, 2019, 04:31:40 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Arriemoller (1), SuperTA (1)

Observing.....................to little, to low prices......

Cumming Bull Observing $10,313.90

Mooooo...


Bad here @Icygreen Bhai milk is out this bat BTC wrong guy here  Grin

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redacted for lack of style
Careful there Negotiator,  this is also a gentleman's club. You wouldn't want to land on everyone's ignore list and get red trust in the same week would you?
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September 07, 2019, 04:34:48 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $10,340
Blood bath for altcoins 🤪
JayJuanGee
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September 07, 2019, 04:34:52 AM
Merited by SuperTA (1)



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

I don't really classify myself as a trader, even though in about late 2015, I began to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to help to prepare for any further price drops, if they were to occur, and to take advantage of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility. Between late 2013 and late 2015, I had considered myself as ONLY a BTC accumulator, so during that whole time, I had a budget and various targets to buy BTC in a kind of aggressive way to reach my targets, which largely took me about a year to get to decent comfort levels in terms of reaching my targets, but I still continued to dollar cost average buy BTC in 2015 and if I ever spent any BTC during that period I would replace such sold BTC within a day or two.

I think that I had considered buying BTC when the price goes down and selling BTC when the price goes up to be a decently sound approach; however, I figured that I had needed to get to a high enough level of BTC accumulation before I felt comfortable enough structuring and starting any kind of selling plan... furthermore, BTC prices did not go up very much during that whole period of 2014 and 2015 while I was engaged in mostly accumulating, in order that I would feel comfortable at shaving off some profits if the price were to go up.. I also had not really structured what my sell plan would be because I thought that I needed to get my whole BTC portfolio into profits before I could start to sell any; however, I also tweaked my thinking regarding that and also came up with some selling plans.  

In essence, I tweaked and theorized my plans for how to sell in mid-2015.  I figured out what amounts that I was authorizing myself to sell and to increase such authorizations in the event that the BTC price went above my overall BTC costs, and then began to employ my plan and to tweak it ever since I started to employ it in late 2015.  I largely consider the carrying out of my plan to NOT require too much thinking, so in essence, I was and have been like a glorified bot, who sells in the area of 1% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up and then uses those proceeds to buy back or to structure my buy backs.  Sometimes, I will tweak my system a bit here and there because I will buy in intervals and incrementally that do not fall on any precise lines, but I consider that part of my goal has been to widen and widen my order intervals (both selling and buy back and the spread between the buy and sell in order to make it harder and harder to trigger my orders) in order to NOT have my orders triggered on smaller price movements and therefore I don't have to be setting my buy and sell orders as frequently.   When I started the plan the orders were set pretty damned tight, so they were being triggered all of the damned time.

Actually in the price run up to $19,666, I had sold quite a bit of BTC all the way up, and I believe that my fiat to BTC ratio had not gotten much if at all above 12% fiat to 88% BTC, and also I recall that I was already buying back BTC in the supra $19k area.. I recall that on some exchanges my BTC sell orders had gotten to a bit above $20k, so the proceeds from those sales were used to buy back BTC in the supra $19k range.  

Probably this time around, if we were to have a double top at $20k-ish, which would be highly unlikely in my thinking, I surely would not expect my BTC buy back intervals to be as tight as they were the first time around, yet I do not have the specific increments set or planned out too much beyond merely having some of the broader dynamics of my expected holdings to be outlined.  

Furthermore, there is a similar dynamic in my theoretical outline of a plan all the way up, including if the BTC price goes past $100k. My spreads get BIGGER and BIGGER, but I still do not plan to sell much beyond 1% for every 10% price rise, if we end up going there.  But, some of the devil of the details is to see the extent to which the theory will play out in practice, which was part of my learning from my experiences in the last price run up to $19,666... because in the last run up to $19,666, I purposefully changed what I thought was going to be my initial plan, which was I ended up selling less BTC than I had initially planned, and I did that on purpose.  In essence, I ended up just sticking with my system of selling 1% for every 10% rise, and I considered that to generate plenty of cash, rather than selling larger amounts of my BTC which had been part of my earlier renditions of projections.

This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.
JSRAW
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September 07, 2019, 04:39:18 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.
dyask
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September 07, 2019, 04:57:02 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.


Hmmm, seems like there are quite a few posters here that treat this thread like a porn site.   Anyway I've seen far worse from cows as they are overall pretty stupid.  Anyone that is sexually stimulated by pictures of cows has a whole different issue.   Can we get back to Bitcoin now or has that been banned on this thread?
VB1001
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September 07, 2019, 05:04:35 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2019, 02:19:15 PM by VB1001

https://twitter.com/SatoshiClan/status/1168028726442905601


Above +10,900 we would be fine, then go to 11,600 and see what happens.


Good morning, WO,s

I couldn't stand 10,900, load the fuel tanks and go back up.

Take advantage of the dip and hodl.

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September 07, 2019, 05:24:56 AM

@JayJuanGee
It sounds like a great plan. But if i was you i don't think i would trade much. I'm almost forced to trade because my position isn't that great.  I'm a late comer. So i try to gather peanuts here and there from my trades. I wouldn't worry in your position at all. You'll probably be a millionaire. All you have to do is wait enough time. That's all.  Smiley
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September 07, 2019, 05:41:30 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.


Ah... Lauda still abusing the Trust system I see.
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September 07, 2019, 05:45:31 AM

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.
Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures. Lips sealed


Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.
Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?
HairyMaclairy
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September 07, 2019, 05:48:57 AM

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.
Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures. Lips sealed


Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.
Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?

We are stuck in a band between 9,300 and 11,300. It’s a bit irrelevant where it goes in that band it’ll bounce all over the place. What’s important is whether it breaks up or down.

80% chance we will eventually break upwards.
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September 07, 2019, 05:55:47 AM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/biological-clock-ageing-turn-back-reverse-study-new-a9094261.html

Science is just scratching the surface on the inevitable defeat of father time. Immortal Bitcoiners will transcend the human aging process and hodl forever as nocoiners and shitcoiners wither away into dust due to lack of funds.

 
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September 07, 2019, 06:00:57 AM

Curious what exactly the rules round these parts are for nudity, porn, etc. if anyone can shed a little light. I have posted a link to bitcoin related porn(cam models accepting crypto etc) here a few times but never any pics w graphic nudity just bc I never see anyone else do it.
arewethereyet?
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September 07, 2019, 06:06:35 AM



Ah... Lauda still abusing the Trust system I see.


Done it to me, also. She really is a pathetic little kitty, eh?

Lauda.....fuck off
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September 07, 2019, 06:08:08 AM

somebody call NotLambChop, I guess we aren't supposed to have porn any more
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September 07, 2019, 06:14:24 AM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/biological-clock-ageing-turn-back-reverse-study-new-a9094261.html

Science is just scratching the surface on the inevitable defeat of father time. Immortal Bitcoiners will transcend the human aging process and hodl forever as nocoiners and shitcoiners wither away into dust due to lack of funds.

 

Where can I buy this? Got to survive the HODL 😎
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September 07, 2019, 06:16:16 AM

@JayJuanGee
It sounds like a great plan. But if i was you i don't think i would trade much. I'm almost forced to trade because my position isn't that great.  I'm a late comer. So i try to gather peanuts here and there from my trades. I wouldn't worry in your position at all. You'll probably be a millionaire. All you have to do is wait enough time. That's all.  Smiley

I also used to trade with one part, but now just hold.
JJG strategy seems correct to me,
if you win 10%, sell 1%
if you win 100% you sell 10%
and in the dip you buy again.
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September 07, 2019, 06:17:51 AM

@JayJuanGee
It sounds like a great plan. But if i was you i don't think i would trade much.


In mid-2015, I went through a considerable number of BTC price projections of cash flow and authorizations of my limits (self-imposed of course), and I had already concluded that selling small amounts of BTC on the way up was going to be the best way to put myself at ease going forward.  I suppose that part of my mental justification was that the BTC prices had gone down for the whole of 2014, so through much of 2015, my average BTC cost was in the $500s, but the price was in the mid-$200s.  

In 2015, I had also acquired about an addition amount of BTC that was priced well below $300, and that portion of my stash constituted between 15% and 20% of my stash quantity, so in essence, I authorized my ability to sell small amounts based on that smaller portion of my stash, which would have been in profits, and then as the BTC price continued to go up, larger and larger portions of my stash went into profits.  So, actually I had brought my cost per
BTC down to slightly below $500, and there was a day before BTC prices had actually gotten back above $500 that I was feeling profitable, even during early 2016 when BTC prices were largely floating in the lower $400s.

In essence, I had stacked buy orders all the way back down to below $200, and I had sell orders up the chain, too, so I felt good, and I felt insured.

I felt insured for BTC price movements in either direction.


Also, to some extent, I felt that I had bought a stash of BTC that was a bit beyond my authorization, so the selling is already built in.  I don't miss them at all when I sell them, even though I know that I could have a bit more of a stash if I were to hang onto  them, but I don't care.  I like having both cash and BTC available, which ONLY seems achievable in a way that is comfortable for me by my following the system that I have established and I have custom tailored to me.

So, anyhow, I don't consider myself to be trading, but just engaging in a kind of insurance plan that causes me to be more psychologically and financially comfortable (and neutral) than if I did NOT have the employment of such a system.


I'm almost forced to trade because my position isn't that great.  I'm a late comer.

I think that you already told your story, so you are way the fuck younger than me.

So think about it.  By the time I got into bitcoin, I had around 30 years of investing in various things and also building my cashflow in various ways.

Accordingly, I had a decent amount of money that I could just inject into BTC.

Of course, like I said, it took me about one year to reach my target investment level (which would have been reached largely by the end of 2014), but then the stagnated BTC price for nearly all of 2015 allowed me to continue to invest (and largely over invest), so in that sense, I don't mind shaving BTC off on an ongoing basis and working such shaving off into my whole BTC approach.

By the way,  in 2015, I was projecting BTC prices to go to $3k or $5k, and that was bullish as fuck, and hardly even seeming tangible - I mean it seemed like pie in the sky, so I had charts that would show what I would do at various price points along the way, and so some of the more loosely planned charts went beyond $5k, but really what happened when the BTC price starting getting close to $3k, I had to extrapolate some of my theories to project higher and higher BTC prices, and when the BTC price came up, I would have opportunities to actually verify how close my actual practice ended up complying with the theoretical projections that largely went 3x to 5x beyond the most bullish of scenarios that were in my short term and more fleshed out mix of scenarios.

Surprisingly, even if the theories did not play out exactly with the actual practice, they were pretty damned close, and a few tweaks here and there, and they became learning experiences in terms of ranges of flexibility that might be necessary for such scenarios if they were to repeat.

In recant times, I changed some of the charts that I use, and sometimes, when discussing "whatch u gonna dooo?" matters, I decided to project further out to see how it looks at various points, such as $100k or $500k or even $1million.  So, yeah, just like you never want to run out of dollars if the BTC price is going down, you should never want to run out of BTC if the  price goes shooting  up without any correction.  

Currently, if I strictly stuck to my plan and the BTC price shot up to $1 millon without any price correction along the way (which is not likely) in which I am able to buy some of the BTC back, my trajectory still shows that I would have a bit more than 70% of the amount of BTC that I hold today while staying in a kind of supra 90% BTC to less than 10% fiat range.  And, the amount of value, even from the fiat portion alone is way more than sufficiently enough for me.

Actually all along the way, the numbers look good, and even if the BTC price does not go up, and goes down to $5k, I am satisfied, even if the numbers would be nicer if the BTC price goes up.  What I am trying to say is that the value of my wealth goes UP so fucking damned much if the BTC price goes up, that it does not really negatively affect me in a material way to shave off a bit of profits from here all the way to $1million and beyond (if the BTC price were to go there).

So i try to gather peanuts here and there from my trades. I wouldn't worry in your position at all. You'll probably be a millionaire. All you have to do is wait enough time. That's all.  Smiley

Personally, I believe that you should not try to rush anything.  Wealth building takes a decent amount of time, especially if it is based on prudent strategies, so of course, people who have been in the investment scene a bit longer should be able to have their position set more or less, but if you are younger you should not be rushing to get to the same status as the older person too quickly because if you do that, then you are likely going to make too many avoidable mistakes.

A lot of my earlier investments were 401ks and index funds and things like that, and if I had access to bitcoin, I could have possibly accelerated my wealth building timeline, but there still is a lot of patience and building and building and building that cannot really be rushed.. You just have to keep building brick by brick.

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