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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3.1%)
<$8,000 - 5 (5.2%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 2 (2.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (5.2%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (6.3%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 18 (18.8%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 19 (19.8%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 18 (18.8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 6 (6.3%)
>$12,000 - 8 (8.3%)
>$20,000 - 5 (5.2%)
Total Voters: 96

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21372133 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
elux
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May 06, 2013, 07:30:04 AM
 #4681

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)

these things are like magic Wink

Arepo: That does sound like magic. Wink
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May 06, 2013, 07:33:13 AM
 #4682

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

The way I see it the 266 crash is the dominent trend. Everything we have seen since then has been consolidation from that crash. TLDR It has more weight.
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May 06, 2013, 07:33:24 AM
 #4683

I wake up and wallzilla is MIA. Anybody knows at which point he unloaded his coins? Maybe he was the one who sold 2k coins at $124?
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May 06, 2013, 07:34:22 AM
 #4684

I wake up and wallzilla is MIA. Anybody knows at which point he unloaded his coins? Maybe he was the one who sold 2k coins at $124?

He left after it passed $120.
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May 06, 2013, 07:42:16 AM
 #4685

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)

these things are like magic Wink

Arepo: That does sound like magic. Wink

if that was difficult to parse, the idea is that the greater the number of points of contact, the more robust the trendline is. this is because, as frozen pointed out, any line at all can be drawn across one point, two points is enough to define an arbitrary unique line, but three points is a 'coincidence', or in statistics terms, a correlation.

i admit that the lines above only have 2 points of contact. the evidence for their robustness is in the price movement right now.
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May 06, 2013, 08:02:26 AM
 #4686

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago]

-===-



-===-

we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle.

these things are like magic Wink

So, basically we are going to finish forming that triangle (going up and down a bit) but then breakout to the upside again, as the original trend was, before the drop (started the triangles formation)?

That I can believe though I'm not sure BTC is going to follow TA all that well due to it's anti-fragile & Black Swan nature  Grin
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May 06, 2013, 08:03:06 AM
 #4687


if that was difficult to parse, the idea is that the greater the number of points of contact, the more robust the trendline is.
this is because, as frozen pointed out, any line at all can be drawn across one point, two points is enough to define an arbitrary unique line, but three points is a 'coincidence', or in statistics terms, a correlation.

i admit that the lines above only have 2 points of contact. the evidence for their robustness is in the price movement right now.

Not difficult to parse. Only arbitrary.

The 260ies marked the on-trend inevitable climax (which had to happen somewhere, and happened to happen there) of of the trend, not an outlier of that trend.

Discarding the last, crucial day in favour of the day before (which was not an outlier? if so, why?) seems disingenous.

As Frozenlock points out:

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers.
we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.
...
as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

You are saying you can use any wick and/or candle, without your method providing guidance.

And proceed to arbitrarily discard any inconvenient data, after you've found a pattern you like.

It is this need to discard data you don't like for the pattern to hold that I find worrying.
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May 06, 2013, 08:14:25 AM
 #4688

Possible bearish divergence

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May 06, 2013, 08:37:30 AM
 #4689

Volume ridiculously low for a Monday morning.

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May 06, 2013, 08:46:43 AM
 #4690

Volume ridiculously low for a Monday morning.



Good sign imo since the price is remaining over 120. Deposits into gox won't come through until tuesday
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May 06, 2013, 09:43:21 AM
 #4691



I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol
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May 06, 2013, 09:48:54 AM
 #4692



I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's just multiple walls across a time range.
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May 06, 2013, 09:48:57 AM
 #4693


I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's the bid and ask walls.

If you go here http://bitcoinity.org/markets you'll see it in 2d.

Notice the wall at 125, you can see the ridge in the 3d graph. Those are snapshots of the wall over the last hour. Very little change at the moment. It's taking the 2d walls, making it 3d, and lining them to give you a differnet view.
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May 06, 2013, 09:59:43 AM
 #4694


I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's the bid and ask walls.

If you go here http://bitcoinity.org/markets you'll see it in 2d.

Notice the wall at 125, you can see the ridge in the 3d graph. Those are snapshots of the wall over the last hour. Very little change at the moment. It's taking the 2d walls, making it 3d, and lining them to give you a differnet view.

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?
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May 06, 2013, 10:07:11 AM
 #4695

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?

It doesn't project anything, it reports what has happened, and what is happening.
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May 06, 2013, 10:11:28 AM
 #4696

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?

It doesn't project anything, it reports what has happened, and what is happening.

We haven't reached $125 yet so how do you interpret the significance of the "cliff" at that point? 
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May 06, 2013, 10:12:01 AM
 #4697

Crazy pattern Cheesy

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May 06, 2013, 10:14:39 AM
 #4698

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?

It doesn't project anything, it reports what has happened, and what is happening.

We haven't reached $125 yet so how do you interpret the significance of the "cliff" at that point? 

A lot of people have asks in at around $125, and have for some time.
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May 06, 2013, 10:17:05 AM
 #4699


I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's the bid and ask walls.

If you go here http://bitcoinity.org/markets you'll see it in 2d.

Notice the wall at 125, you can see the ridge in the 3d graph. Those are snapshots of the wall over the last hour. Very little change at the moment. It's taking the 2d walls, making it 3d, and lining them to give you a differnet view.

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?
Not necessarily. It will fall when sentiment turns around and people stop buying / start selling. It will be hard to get past $125 yes but so was $100, $110, $120... so in the end walls mean nothing.

Right now most TA hints at a correction - we just can't keep going up, up, up, we're overbought. But the low volume skews the timeframe as of which it will happen. It may just hold for another few days as new money flows in and latecomers buy on the Chinese news, taking us to $130 or maybe higher. However the longer we stay overbought the harder it will correct.
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May 06, 2013, 10:26:53 AM
 #4700


I understand most charts, but this one is completely beyond me?

Could anyone kindly explain, would be appreciated! Looks interesting lol

It's the bid and ask walls.

If you go here http://bitcoinity.org/markets you'll see it in 2d.

Notice the wall at 125, you can see the ridge in the 3d graph. Those are snapshots of the wall over the last hour. Very little change at the moment. It's taking the 2d walls, making it 3d, and lining them to give you a differnet view.

So it projects that the price will top out around $125 and start to fall after that?
Not necessarily. It will fall when sentiment turns around and people stop buying / start selling. It will be hard to get past $125 yes but so was $100, $110, $120... so in the end walls mean nothing.

Right now most TA hints at a correction - we just can't keep going up, up, up, we're overbought. But the low volume skews the timeframe as of which it will happen. It may just hold for another few days as new money flows in and latecomers buy on the Chinese news, taking us to $130 or maybe higher. However the longer we stay overbought the harder it will correct.

I would say that a major correction won't happen until Wednesday. Normally that's the day for both the big rallies or crashes. Don't really know what's the logic in it, but that's how it is usually.
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