Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SAQ]

Finally some movement, but not now, I need to go to sleep!

Go back, go hang around 112 and tomorrow leg up to 125

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[rpietila]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic...

Oops, i was too tired. 

 Did not change the outcome, though, since (quadratic > exponential)

not >> but matters little since currently the exchanges are the bottleneck

or how about multisig connections... 

 

[Richy_T]

We definitely need another exchange. I know there may be those out there with the skills to create a fantastic exchange but who are lacking the resources. In the spirit of supporting Bitcoin, I have some Pokemon cards I would be willing to lend out to help someone get started.

[hlynur]

$117 with many big buys. its 10AM sunday in hong kong. are we sure this action is from the CCTV news piece?

News will backfire. Btcchina sucks, it's a small exchange for pocket change. Withdraw from there is limited to 10 BTC per day.

Chinese can trade BTC now. What's stopping other exchanges from outperforming BTCCHINA? I don't see why limit should stay at 10 BTC with many wealthy Chinese wanting in on the action.

It's definitively a good sign for more bitcoin adaptation in china.
in connection with cheap energy cost, world's biggest exporter / world's biggest producer of mining hardware and so many potential buyers (the educated social class represents nearly whole population of USA) the market there could grow real big in longterm.
Although nobody can predict how the government will react to such developement, the political system in china enables a ban more easily than in western countries.
The CCTV report will be used for some marketgambling and typical pumpdump-action in shortterm as usual with any new media coverage or rumor but for the long run this is a very bullish sign imo.

[foo]

BTCChina is down. DDoS?

Edit: Just as I was about to post, a CloudFlare page appeared...

[Geist]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1dltvr/krakencom_us_exchange_opens_beta/

It's not up yet, but Kraken seems promising as a new Exchange. Coinlab sounded interesting as well, but I'm not entirely sure how that's going.

[keewee]

[adamstgBit]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

buy tons of bitcoin 

[Geist]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun! .. buy tons of bitcoin!

I wished I lived near a bitcoin meetup. But sadly I live in the middle of nowhere. 

[Frozenlock]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

buy tons of bitcoin 

There was a Montréal meetup?! 
Nobody told meeeee!

[ChiangYay]

 I suspect rpietila could be Mads Brügger.
"
Mads Brügger (1972) is a Danish journalist, TV-host, author and filmmaker. He has written several books, worked for magazines and newspapers, produced award winning radio programmes and hosted the critically acclaimed late night TV-programme The 11th hour as well as the daily news/debate programme Deadline. Furthermore, he has created satirical docu-series as Danes for Bush (2004) and the feature-length documentary, The Red Chapel (winner at Nordisk Panorama 2009 & Sundance 2010). Brügger is reknown for his distinctive methods of “performative journalism” as he infiltrates various milieus."



http://theambassador.dk/

Goat be careful if he wants to film you transfering the BTC's in public.



 

[ineededausername]

quadratic > exponential

I don't think that's true either

[adamstgBit]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

buy tons of bitcoin 

There was a Montréal meetup?! 
Nobody told meeeee!

theirs a thread in meetups.

[Geist]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

buy tons of bitcoin 

There was a Montréal meetup?! 
Nobody told meeeee!

theirs a thread in meetups.

I know, and I know that there are meetups in cities all over the world. I just don't live close enough to one that I can get there on my pitiful income and I don't have the organization skills to organize one in the city I live in.

[BitPirate]

$117 with many big buys. its 10AM sunday in hong kong. are we sure this action is from the CCTV news piece?

News will backfire. Btcchina sucks, it's a small exchange for pocket change. Withdraw from there is limited to 10 BTC per day.

I have some news that should improve on that, hopefully coming this week...

[Lgetty17]

To me, the shallowness of the slope on the "bid" side tells me that the market is headed downward soon. As bitcoins are bought and sold regularly, the fact that the "ask" side is so much higher than the "bid" side means that it is going to take more trading to move is up. The gap will always close, and more than likely both sides will move equally, basically, so the price will move down... Is my thinking generally correct?

TL;DR- Am I correct in thinking that if the slope of the ask side is > bid side then the market is generally headed downward and vice versa?

[BTC Books]

I suspect rpietila could be Mads Brügger.
"
Mads Brügger (1972) is a Danish journalist, TV-host, author and filmmaker. He has written several books, worked for magazines and newspapers, produced award winning radio programmes and hosted the critically acclaimed late night TV-programme The 11th hour as well as the daily news/debate programme Deadline. Furthermore, he has created satirical docu-series as Danes for Bush (2004) and the feature-length documentary, The Red Chapel (winner at Nordisk Panorama 2009 & Sundance 2010). Brügger is reknown for his distinctive methods of “performative journalism” as he infiltrates various milieus."

http://theambassador.dk/

Goat be careful if he wants to film you transfering the BTC's in public.

That's quite the resemblance, isn't it?

[Beta-coiner1]

montreal meetup was fucking AWESOME! not too many people, but tons of fun!

buy tons of bitcoin 

.....Hey,how is the taxman treating you guys,lol?

[micalith]

Is it just me or does the wall at $120 seem is way too small to not get trivially chomped by whomever kicked the price up to where it is now?

[hlynur]

I suspect rpietila could be Mads Brügger.
"
Mads Brügger (1972) is a Danish journalist, TV-host, author and filmmaker. He has written several books, worked for magazines and newspapers, produced award winning radio programmes and hosted the critically acclaimed late night TV-programme The 11th hour as well as the daily news/debate programme Deadline. Furthermore, he has created satirical docu-series as Danes for Bush (2004) and the feature-length documentary, The Red Chapel (winner at Nordisk Panorama 2009 & Sundance 2010). Brügger is reknown for his distinctive methods of “performative journalism” as he infiltrates various milieus."

Goat be careful if he wants to film you transfering the BTC's in public.

if there was a btc movie, that would be pretty awesome for btc.

Funny coincidence, saw both of his movies (Red Chapel, Ambassador) last month.
There is some simliarity to the photo.
But I don't know if a movie by Mads Brügge about Bitcoin would be that awesome.
In Ambassador he has proven that you can get diplomatic status and smuggle blood diamonds out of an african country if you have enough cash and pretentious appearance.
In Red Chapel he pretended to be a communist theater director from denmark and went with two southkoreans (one of them handicapped) to NorthKorea to enact a play. (really interesting insight and social stuy of northkorea)

His satirical approach in his documentaries would defintively do more damage to the adaptation of bitcoin. Kinda like artmarket unmasking "exit through the giftshop" mockumentary by london streetartist banksy or performances by the Yes Men.

I'm sure it's not that difficult to find a lot of people in bitcoin community to do a satirical mockumentary thinking of some comments on the forum
Otherwise Mads Brügge seemed to me to be a higly intelligent person that would get the idea behind bitcoin after doing some research, so perhaps he would show both sides of the coin.

But let's see...absolute speculation based on a single photograph.

@rpietila:
If you are Mads Brügge...call me a fan and I surely would like to have contact because i have many ideas for some sick areas in the world that need such a style of dismantling roleplay-documentaries.