Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[elux]

Hear ye, hear ye: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1dry23/the_first_open_outcry_exchange_opening_in_nyc/

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[fitty]

When do you see this happening? I would think the influx of investors on Tuesday would necessitate it happening before then.

Why would a bunch of new money on Tuesday cause the price to go sub-$100?

[notme]

When do you see this happening? I would think the influx of investors on Tuesday would necessitate it happening before then.

Why would a bunch of new money on Tuesday cause the price to go sub-$100?

He's saying the influx makes it necessary for a such a dip, if it is going to happen, to occur before the new money arrives.

[arepo]

The strong price action, leads me to think, we'll see 134 soon.   

doubt it, this movement just completed a still-bearish wedge.

General TA question, how do you factor in the order book? Not just in what you're seeing now, but in general when you look over the data. The depth, the consolidation, the consolidation at price points. What percetnage of the asks are real, what percentage get pulled as the bid wall approaches? Does that even matter?

i don't put much stock in it. the standing orders have less and less of an influence on the market the further you get from the current price point, because bluffing is low cost without the risk of your 'fake' wall being filled.

also, i try to determine points of resistance from direct price history analysis rather than walls in the order book. from my experience, there is usually a wall at a 'real' support/resistance, but the relationship isn't two-ways. just because there is a wall, doesn't mean it is a real support/resistance.

basically, i ignore it for the most part. reading the tide-like ebb and flow of the spread near the price point is minimally useful for anticipating micro-term movements, but beyond that it isn't good data for analysis, in my experience.

[Nemesis]

We will break 125 tmr. Bearish? you wish.

[Its About Sharing]

Let's not forget that a major bubble popped less than 30 days ago. It took one year for the price to return to $30 after the 2011 bubble. For me the only thing holding us back from the strong downward pressure from the last crash is the Chinese news. People have been squabbling over what this news means in the short-range. What are the implications of this for the months to come? This is MAJOR progress for bitcoin. The Chinese government is most certainly backing bitcoin as we have had multiple media leaks endorsing it. It cannot be an isolated event.

The investors will probably be pretty bad until the bad ones lose capital. Therefore I expect a lot of volatility in the coming weeks.



We're actually riding this upper wall. I believe the reason we have not crashed (and appear to be rallying) after we smashed the 120 wall and wallzilla jumped ship is because the market is deciding how it is going to react to the China news. The market WILL react to this positively, it is simply too big to ignore. I see a steady rise upwards that gets refueled on Tuesday when the new money is released (the new investors will be happy to jump on the upswing, and actually, this is quite good IMO. This will act as a catching net and widen the base of initial investors from China. Only good things ahead for BTC  

You may be right regarding the last crash and the time it may take to "recover" from the latest. But, as you said what about the Chinese? And a very big factor to consider is our outstanding supply of 11 million (probably a bit less than that). We are moving forward at a pace that is not linear, maybe not exponential, but quadratic or somewhere like that.

Due to the low float and the world situation, to use the past as a predictor of the future, especially when talking about anti-fragile technology, is dangerous. It can bite us quick like.

[fitty]

When do you see this happening? I would think the influx of investors on Tuesday would necessitate it happening before then.

Why would a bunch of new money on Tuesday cause the price to go sub-$100?

He's saying the influx makes it necessary for a such a dip, if it is going to happen, to occur before the new money arrives.

Ahhh, okay.

Banks are set to open in Japan in 18 hours. We'd need 20-30k coins dumped in very quick order, with little or no resistance on the way down. Seems like a horrible time to dump that many coins when we're at the end of an extended bank holiday and money starts arriving in under 24 hours. There's also not enough time to crash the price and re-buy. You need to hold the price down in order for asks to build up to buy back through. Otherwise you just push the price right back up and probably don't get back in any lower then you sold.

If you own $1-2M worth of coins right now, I really doubt you're about to flood the market and crash the price. The hype train will be running wild on Tuesday, probably a better day to do it.  

[Frozenlock]

We are moving forward at a pace that is not linear, maybe not exponential, but quadratic or somewhere like that.

y = ax² + bx + c
 

Did you really mean that, or was it rather double exponential?

[arepo]

great rendering of the triangle that confirms my suspicions of an imminent correction/downward breakout.

[Frozenlock]

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

[Its About Sharing]

All i know is rpietila has fun. No matter what he is doing, at least he's taking the bull by the horns and doing something..

We need more people in the world like him.

Thank you for these kind words, sir.

But please remember that at times, 40% of this thread is metatalk about me, and the raison d'être of this thread is to observe the walls that the wallmasters set up. There are other threads available, if you want to discuss my fundamental research in an atmosphere of dignity, or contempt.

The latter thread, is shown as follows in my screen:

A: This user is currently ignored.

B: This user is currently ignored.

A: This user is currently ignored.

C: This user is currently ignored.

LOL someone has a massive ego. 

He might have one, but something I've learned (and read/recognized from J. Krishnamurti) is that we need to "See the truth in the false". In other words, everyone has something to say and there are true words coming from everyone - and quite often wise due to different lives, circumstances, experiences, etc. I'm not saying he is all truth or all false, but clearly he adds a lot to the talk. I listen to what everyone has to say. Sometimes we look for just a "professional" perspective with big words and all that, and then we miss the teacher on the street that goes under the radar. I'm not coming down on you either, just being slightly contrarian.  

[Awhut]

He might have one, but something I've learned (and read/recognized from J. Krishnamurti) is that we need to "See the truth in the false". In other words, everyone has something to say and there are true words coming from everyone - and quite often wise due to different lives, circumstances, experiences, etc. I'm not saying he is all truth or all false, but clearly he adds a lot to the talk. I listen to what everyone has to say. Sometimes we look for just a "professional" perspective with big words and all that, and then we miss the teacher on the street that goes under the radar. I'm not coming down on you either, just being slightly contrarian.  

+1

[arepo]

Hmm..

I must practice my triangle-fu, I still don't see it.

it's easier to see on this scale: [taken approx. 12 hours ago]

-===-



-===-

we're just hitting that red line, the marked upper bound of the (yellow) triangle.

these things are like magic

[Frozenlock]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

[jl2012]

Should we close this thread and make a new one again? It's getting too many pages again.....

[Awhut]

Should we close this thread and make a new one again? It's getting too many pages again.....

Bear propaganda. They want the value of this thread at 1

[arepo]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

[zby]

great rendering of the triangle that confirms my suspicions of an imminent correction/downward breakout.

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

[elux]

But why aren't you taking the high of the $265 candle?
You can make many, many shapes if you can choose any length of candle.

that high is very obviously an outlier.

the process of drawing the 'correct' triangle is as follows: identify the possible top and bottom trendlines with the greatest number of points of contact, disregarding outliers. we can even disregard the highs that break robust (multi-point) trendlines because that itself is evidence that they are outliers, based on the theories of triangle consolidation patterns.

in the picture above, there are 4 possible robust lines, all with 2 points of contact (the minimum for a unique line). i've only drawn 3, can you see the other? hint: what if you assume that the lowest price points of the two recent green bottoms are outliers?

as you can see, there are many possible triangles. determining which is the best fit is a messy process that i'm still refining.

IOW: It doesn't fit the story? (Good question, frozenlock.)

these things are like magic

Arepo: That does sound like magic.

[Awhut]

I don't buy that one - why the triangle is going throught the point at Apr 29 and not Apr 23?  The triangle involving the 266 hight was already broken, but now we can have another one starting at the low point and then Apr 29 high and resting on Apr 23.

The way I see it the 266 crash is the dominent trend. Everything we have seen since then has been consolidation from that crash. TLDR It has more weight.