Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hmmmstrange]

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

rpietila, Do you believe we can have the mining hardware in place by the end of the year to secure a $300k price? The mining difficulty would need to increase by a factor of 1000. ASICS may increase the security 10 fold this year. Is it even possible to get 100 fold by years end? I do agree that the 300k is feasible by end of 2014 but not in 6 months.

[1685987345]

1685987345

[Nightowlace]

but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional

How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line?

How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them?

If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)?

What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?)

How many bitcoins are for sale?

To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you.

How many times do we have to quote you being wrong and saying "you can quote me on that" for you to realize no one is buying what you're selling. BTC once it begins to be adopted by the masses to buy and sell goods, services, etc. then and only them will we see a slow steady climb in price.

I will place a wager of one single Bitcoin that we do not exceed $1,000 this year. Not because I do not want it to be true but because it is simply not IMHO going to happen in 2013. The one bitcoin bet is not because you or I can't afford more it is a simple a gentlemen's gesture similar to that of the $1 wager in Trading Places where Eddie Murphey went from the outhouse to the penthouse. If you can make it happen, then make it happen.

[michaelGedi]

ooooohhhhh god... it's become reptilia observer thread again COME ON

All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).

It is almost as if nobody actually reads it

it is written

and this needed a +1

especially because if he is right, and BTC does one day reach $300k... well, this will be up on billboards everywhere

[Rampion]

ooooohhhhh god... it's become reptilia observer thread again COME ON

All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig).

It is almost as if nobody actually reads it

it is written

and this needed a +1

especially because if he is right, and BTC does one day reach $300k... well, this will be up on billboards everywhere

We would be all happy if he is right, but he is not even willing to bet 50BTC of all his supernode fortune of thousands of BTC on his own prediction... So how can't we recognize it as delusional?

this would be posted on billboards to point out how nobody really believed in that, not even the supernode who predicted it  

[BitcoinAshley]

Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because their is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip.

Huh?

Bitcoin is a great transaction currency. Want to buy a bong, double ended dildo, without the govt, your mom, your wife knowing about it? Use Bitcoin! Want to send money around the globe without getting raped by fees? Bitcoin is here to save the day!

There's 10,000s of people using Bitcoin for those two purposes. None of them are trying to "get rich". You're confusing the exchange and Bitcoin. The exchange is an entity on it's own.

I'd argue Bitcoin is way more useful then Facebook, but since I never signed up for Facebook I  might be biased. 

+1, fitty...
Gee, these "bitcoin users don't actually care about using bitcoin, all of them are just trying to get rich quick!" folks (i.e. the people who bought at $260) are a dime a dozen!

It's almost, like, what are those things called, 'stereotypes'? 

Aside from that it's an unfalsifiable statement. No definition is given as to what makes one a "hoarder/get rich quick schemer who doesn't care" vs. a "spender / treats bitcoin like a hot potato / keeps savings in USD / is a BUTTCONZ TRU BELIEBER."

If I have BTC50 in a cold wallet and the rest of my balance is USD/etc converted to bitcoin to buy cat food, restaurant food, VPN service, domain name, monthly delivery of PMs, occasional clothing or computer purchase - am I a spender or a hoarder?
Now, multiply the amount saved by 5 and decrease the amount spent by 2x... what am I now? Where do you draw the line between "buttcon tru beliebers who keep their savings in USD and only use bitcoin to buy stuff" and "evil hoarder spender speculators with 15 bajillion buttcons just trying to make a quick buck, don't actually CARE"

Bitcoin isn't your mom or girlfriend, guys. Bitcoin doesn't have feelings, so stop whining. It doesn't care how much you you BELIEVE in it nor does it care what percentage you spend vs. save and what label the butthurt bears therefore apply upon you without actually defining what ratio of BELIEBER/SPECULATOR you must be in order to qualify as "SOMEONE WHO CARES."

[Frozenlock]

I see a triangle.

[Richy_T]

I see a triangle.

[rpietila]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

[EuroTrash]

I see a triangle.

Will it be broken upwards or downwards? Short term bears are getting nervous and short term bulls seem to have gone to sleep.

[wachtwoord]

The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.

Not that I'm complaining if it happens though

[michaelGedi]

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current user

Current users are not equal to current speculators

[rpietila]

The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.

It is only because you refuse to believe that it is inevitable. One of the summit delegates tried to tell this to me for 2 years, finally I understood it.

We are now in "2". If there is still no utility, we will reach $300k by 2016. But if there is utility,

the endgame can be rather quick.

[rpietila]

Current users are not equal to current speculators

Yeah. The speculators sell their coin for fiat profit, and "buy" 0.01% of it back when they receive their paycheck in October, 2013.

[phatsphere]

can we agree to stop this awful 3d on 2d wall postings? a much more better solution would be a flat 2d plot, where the colors mark the height of the walls over time on both sides. same color means same height.

and in case nobody wants to plot this quickly in matplotlib, where can i get the raw wall height data over time? is there a good source?

[keewee]

[SAQ]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

So, according to exponential growth, what will the price be on Monday? We all know if 1 billion buy 1 bitcoin it would be a lot - still not 300k, 50k, but when are 1 billion people going to adopt it?

Do we even know how many people have bitcoins today?

[lunarboy]

No basis, just a sneaky feeling its going back down a little now after the hectic day.  

[solex]

What I don't understand is why we put ANY belief in the graphs.  First rule of investing is that past performance is NOT indicative of future performance (good or bad).

Bitcoin is not on a performance curve but an adoption curve (at least that's my belief).

When it reaches near saturation, it will about flatline at whatever price with minor fluctuations and probably a slowish upward climb due to fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation.

Exactly. And during the adoption curve exponential gains are inevitable until saturation is reached. This was seen with MSFT and AAPL in the early years.

[solex]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

[Rockford]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

+1

  I had the same conclusion/theory/gut feeling