Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Would be quite strange if Bitcoin were to go shooting up, while the rest of the world burns,

Yeah... I dunno about that. All that newly-printed money has to go somewhere.

I mean, sure. All those pinstriped-bandit insiders that get the sweetheart deal financializing everyone else's misery don't currently have a hard-on for Bitcoin. But when they see P/E ratios trending towards infinity? They'll be looking around for somewhere else to park their stolen riches. Bitcoin is as good as it gets from an honest analysis.

... this.

I think PlanB and the phase change S2FX model is interesting but swerves heavily into behaviourial economics which becomes quite subjective/speculative.

Also I think the orders of magnitude are off. Currently bitcoin 'capitalisation' is around the USD100-200 billion range, and due to bitcoin's unique programmable properties it makes it difficult to put that valuation into a neat M0, M1, M2 type money supply classification of economics anyway. A 'phase change' to the next level at maybe 10-20x current capitalisations is not going leave bitcoin anywhere near 'geopolitical force' level, even at a peak. However, the next level could easily attract a lot of the "stolen riches" that have been printed up to paper over the graft, malfeasance and theft from our hyper-financialised fiat-debt crony-socialist system. The stolen riches are of the order USD10-20 trillion by my crude estimates. Bitcoin going to USD2-3 trillion capitalisation in the next phase change would definitely vacuum up a chunk of some of the stolen riches but I don't see any geopolitical asset allocations (central banks, treasuries, national wealth funds, etc) at this phase.

Contrary to many speculations about coming hyperinflations in fiat-denominated economies I don't think we will see widespread hyperinflation. Why haven't we seen any CPI inflation the previous 3 decades in Japan and the last 15 years in the West? The system is finely tuned now to cause only inflation in financial assets not consumer goods. Subsequently all the monetary 'fixes' are now being manifest as economic problems; stagnation, low wages, middle class hollowed out, historic wealth inequalities, etc. All the money that gets printed only goes to the top 0.1% that had all the money in the first place, it's like a shitcoin staking bonus system or something. So my point here is the M0 for the world of around $100 trillion base money is not representative of the total monetised assets in the world since many financial assets, property, commodities and derivatives have become monetised as the asset-holding classes try to escape fiat debasement over the last 50 years. The monetary premium now built into those dollar-denominated assets needs to be added to the $100 trillion of global M0 to get a true 'geopolitical' M* measure (order of magnitude) for the final phase change that PlanB talks about. I'd guess that's in the USD200-500 trillion magnitude. I don't see bitcoin capturing a significant chunk of that monetary float capital until after the 2024 halvening or the one after that at the earliest. Imperial systems take time to collapse.

After the upcoming stolen riches phase change taking us to $1-2 trillion market cap range there is also the consideration that a bloc of 'rebel' nations may defect the fiat-debt system at an earlier phase change to the majority, creating an interim 'geopolitical subwave' phase. Before the majority of nations move to a bitcoin standard, say China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other rekt systems by default move to bitcoin majorly in 2024-25, creating a market cap. of USD10-20 trillion range is then a possibility. After that, then the major economies begin to defect to bitcoin in a major move beginning 2028-30 taking bitcoin into the USD50-100 trillion range, but the value of the dollar will be becoming immeasurably meaningless by that stage.

post of the month contender right here

First thing I did was check it for plagiarism and then put it to the side to give it it's due attention tomorrow after passing that check.

[bkbirge]

I was unable to read that post without hearing The Terminator soundtrack in my head.

[bkbirge]

that you have not discovered darkreader yet?

Holy hand grenade of Antioch thankyou for sharing that. My life is forever changed.

[Cryptotourist]

Standard behaviour when Bitcoin surges big time. Usually, it takes 2-3 weeks for alts to follow along but this time, it seems different. The future of alts seems bleaker.

It's not the future of alts that is bleaker, it is the future of BTC that is shinny and bright.

If history repeats itself, expect alts to keep falling in BTC value, whilst gaining most of the difference in fiat value (because of BTC of course), for a few more months.
Just like the second half of 2016.

why is wordy man so wordy

recursion

FTW

<No comment>

[MFahad]

Knock, knock, knocking on $9400.
The way from there to $9500 looks a bit steeper to me.

EDIT: Resistance, as judged by orderbook, just thinned out considerably.
Bots?

Rejected the 9500$ resistance twice. Keep on trying, you will break the wall. Once the wall is broken, there is a smooth
ride ahead.

[Cryptotourist]

I think PlanB and the phase change S2FX model is interesting but swerves heavily into behaviourial economics which becomes quite subjective/speculative.

Also I think the orders of magnitude are off. Currently bitcoin 'capitalisation' is around the USD100-200 billion range, and due to bitcoin's unique programmable properties it makes it difficult to put that valuation into a neat M0, M1, M2 type money supply classification of economics anyway. A 'phase change' to the next level at maybe 10-20x current capitalisations is not going leave bitcoin anywhere near 'geopolitical force' level, even at a peak. However, the next level could easily attract a lot of the "stolen riches" that have been printed up to paper over the graft, malfeasance and theft from our hyper-financialised fiat-debt crony-socialist system. The stolen riches are of the order USD10-20 trillion by my crude estimates. Bitcoin going to USD2-3 trillion capitalisation in the next phase change would definitely vacuum up a chunk of some of the stolen riches but I don't see any geopolitical asset allocations (central banks, treasuries, national wealth funds, etc) at this phase.

Contrary to many speculations about coming hyperinflations in fiat-denominated economies I don't think we will see widespread hyperinflation. Why haven't we seen any CPI inflation the previous 3 decades in Japan and the last 15 years in the West? The system is finely tuned now to cause only inflation in financial assets not consumer goods. Subsequently all the monetary 'fixes' are now being manifest as economic problems; stagnation, low wages, middle class hollowed out, historic wealth inequalities, etc. All the money that gets printed only goes to the top 0.1% that had all the money in the first place, it's like a shitcoin staking bonus system or something. So my point here is the M0 for the world of around $100 trillion base money is not representative of the total monetised assets in the world since many financial assets, property, commodities and derivatives have become monetised as the asset-holding classes try to escape fiat debasement over the last 50 years. The monetary premium now built into those dollar-denominated assets needs to be added to the $100 trillion of global M0 to get a true 'geopolitical' M* measure (order of magnitude) for the final phase change that PlanB talks about. I'd guess that's in the USD200-500 trillion magnitude. I don't see bitcoin capturing a significant chunk of that monetary float capital until after the 2024 halvening or the one after that at the earliest. Imperial systems take time to collapse.

After the upcoming stolen riches phase change taking us to $1-2 trillion market cap range there is also the consideration that a bloc of 'rebel' nations may defect the fiat-debt system at an earlier phase change to the majority, creating an interim 'geopolitical subwave' phase. Before the majority of nations move to a bitcoin standard, say China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other rekt systems by default move to bitcoin majorly in 2024-25, creating a market cap. of USD10-20 trillion range is then a possibility. After that, then the major economies begin to defect to bitcoin in a major move beginning 2028-30 taking bitcoin into the USD50-100 trillion range, but the value of the dollar will be becoming immeasurably meaningless by that stage.

Oh my, if you carry on like this, we'll become best buddies for ever.

No, on any civilized keyboard Ö is next to L.

Exactly where the stress is located, on the Greek keyboard.

[VB1001]

Bitcoin Optech Newsletter

This week’s newsletter links to a discussion about using enhanced QR codes for communicating large transactions, includes a field report from Suredbits about building a high-availability LN node, and briefly summarizes several recently transcribed talks and conversations. Also included are our regular sections with releases, release candidates, and notable code changes from popular Bitcoin infrastructure software.

https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2020/05/06/

[bitebits]

A trip down memory lane with Dan Held as the host and guests Erik Voorhees, Tuur DeMeester and Charlie Lee:

https://twitter.com/krakenfx/status/1258215062793142279

[VB1001]

xhomerx10 new hat idea for Hodlers..
Artist: Yegor Petrov https://twitter.com/yegorpetr0v/status/1258047027893735431

 Oooo that's nice!

Badgers have a sad look.

[Wekkel]

Revisiting the topic of stimulus paid to deceased people, the IRS wants it back now: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/irs-orders-dead-return-stimulus-money

[kellrobinson]

Buy your tickets now.  This train is leaving the station.

[jojo69]

that you have not discovered darkreader yet?

Holy hand grenade of Antioch thankyou for sharing that. My life is forever changed.

no problem, somebody here turned me on to it

it shits the bed every so often but you just go into addons and toggle it off and back on and it picks back up

[jbreher]

Looking at the plaintiffs' names, one can't help but wonder if this is another inside cointelpro job.

I can't quite make that connection.

NYT, Confessor, Song&Dance

Oh ... wait... I see you see it.
Nevermind....

[OutOfMemory]

yes, did not know how to conjure it from my keyboard.

It is a perfectly normal letter located right next to the L your keyboard must be missing some keys.

No, on any civilized keyboard Ö is next to L.

Äre yöü süre? 
Good morning, Pump Observers 

[Cryptotourist]

Äre yöü süre?  

Dόnt't tάke άnythίng fόr grάnted.

[Globb0]

Funny I once had to remote control a computer in Belgium or somewhere like that.

It took me about an hour to log in.

Seemed like every key I pushed did a different version of A and O     

[JSRAW]

I would like to believe some random guy on the internet. 

[VB1001]

Overcoming the 9,500 figure will cost work, the next step is to break 10,500, if we get there, the bears are defeated.

[NeuroticFish]

Seemed like every key I pushed did a different version of A and O     

I guess that you got a taste of the lovely French keyboard. Wasn't also AZERTY by chance?
Also, if you have such masochistic temptations, you should also try Hungarian (áéóöőúüű) 

Overcoming the 9,500 figure will cost work, the next step is to break 10,500, if we get there, the bears are defeated.

Waiting patiently for getting over 10k EUR (!) figures. That's what should have been the pre-halving price imho.
And of course, I am curious what will the manipulation masters do in the next 15-20 days with the price.

[VB1001]

Seemed like every key I pushed did a different version of A and O     

Try one of these