Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

I have difficulties understanding how anyone can be mad at you for presenting a well-reasoned argument, even if some of us might not agree with some of your presumptions or conclusions... but in the end, you are making a lot of reasonable observations based on currently available information.

Sure, if it were to appear that you were merely spinning or talking your book or some bullshit like that, then that would be another story... There is no evidence to establish that you are doing any of those things.. at least so far I don't see any of that kind of evidence.

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

I am a little bit unclear about what appears to be a couple of your points in the above paragraph, here.

First:  In regards to your recommendation of NOT holding open long positions: Are you merely referring to not holding open leveraged longs or are you referring to closing all longs (which would mean selling all of your BTC)?  Because there are a large number of members here who have been long as fuck in BTC, and mostly only play long in terms of accumulating BTC over a long period of time.  In other words, DCAing, buying on dips and HODLing.. are proven sound strategies for largely playing the long game.. and with this approach, most longer term BTC holders strive to NOT give too many shits about the noises that might occur in shorter time periods, including the fact that either the four-year BTC price prediction fractal might not end up working out as hoped or the stock to flow model BTC price prediction model might be delayed by a few years..... or perhaps need to be otherwise tweaked in a downwards direction.  In the end, these long accumulations are long term, so they do not get caught up in short term noise, even if the value of their portfolio might go down because the value of BTC goes down in the short term.  You are not saying that regular longs (rather than leveraged ones) should sell, too, are you?

Second:  This question might be a bit less serious, but still would be nice to get a response from you in terms of correction levels that you are anticipating.. or maybe you are largely just presuming flat, rather than up?  Anyhow,  I am not trying to pick on Mindrust, and of course, I do not wish anything badly upon mindrust on a personal level, but he is a very good example of recent happenings.  Accordingly, are you speculating that either mindrust will be able to buy back his BTC at a profit or maybe alternatively that he might be able to significantly mitigate his losses which might mean buying back his BTC in the sub $6k arena?  

**Remember, for clarity sake, that Mindrust sold all 10 of his BTC in about the mid $4ks, and according to his latest report, he has ONLY been DCA-ing into bitcoin at about $50 per week (for the sake of the sanity of topic clarity in this thread, we will ignore whatever his dumbass injections of value may have been or continue to be into various shitcoins).

If you conclude that I am being too pesky, then I will proclaim that "I am asking all of this for a friend."        


Edit:

Come on hairy grow a sack 

I'm not selling bro.  I'm postulating.  And putting my leveraged long entry points very deep. 

This may have largely answered my first question (above)... might not hurt to elaborate, though, hairy.

[heslo]

Fun times at Bitmain Mining.

https://www.coindesk.com/internal-struggle-bitcoin-mining-bitmain-escalates-physical-confrontation-micree-zhan

I swear that company is a melting pot of deceit and backstabbing. More drama than an episode of Bold and the Beautiful

[HairyMaclairy]

JJG:  my bad.  I meant not holding open leveraged long positions which could get liquidated.  I am about 93% BTC, 7% cash at the moment.  

I don’t know what level we could revisit and I am not going to forecast it.  It could be mild or it could be severe.  I am using my 7% cash to place staggered buy orders all the way down the scale and will leave it at that.  I won't enter any leveraged longs until below $6k at earliest as I don't want to be caught with a high averaged cost base for those leveraged longs.      

The stock market is way too high right now.  

Here is the SPX500.  There is no justification for us to be sitting at October 2019 levels.  The market has gotten ahead of itself with the promise of reopening, not realising that reopening is going to see bad times.  The stock market "should" tank.  In writing this I acknowledge conventional wisdom is you should never fight the Fed.  So the market is going to swing on interpreting the Fed.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I agree with almost all of that. The only thing I would say is wrong is what happens when the economy gets refucked. The end game for the current financial system should have been a decade away at least, but once the cascading defaults begin, there will be two options. Massive deflation, on a scale never before seen as the debt unwinds through default, or massive inflation as all the debt is printed to oblivion to avoid the deflation scenario. The people making the decisions know they are going to have to destroy both the dollar and the current monetary system. They all wish they could have kicked the can a little bit further so it was the next person who had to deal with it. But COVID has bought the whole clusterfuck to a head. Bitcoin will soar against a dollar that destroys itself, because it must be destroyed. The deflation scenario will be too terrifying for those in charge to contemplate. They will see their heads on spikes. Things are going to get very weird I think, it will probably be good for bitcoin, but it will be really fucked up in so many other ways we may not care as much as we think we will.

Maybe clarification from you might be helpful, too, random_australian.

I really despise putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though various aspects of the current path seems to be striving in that direction... whether purposeful or incidental.

So, it is not that I disagree with you, random_australian, but in my experience, it seems to have been a lot more healthy to attempt to figure out more likely scenarios rather than putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though we cannot completely ignore Armageddon scenarios when they have gone from less than 1% odds to something closer to 5% to 8%, which is nothing to sneeze at, but still does not mean that we should be putting more than 10% efforts/preparations into scenarios that still seem to be having less than 8% odds, right?

[JayJuanGee]

JJG:  my bad.  I meant not holding open leveraged long positions which could get liquidated.  I am about 93% BTC, 7% cash at the moment.  

I don’t know what level we could revisit and I am not going to forecast it.  It could be mild or it could be severe.  But the stock market is way too high right now.  

Here is the SPX500.  There is no justification for us to be sitting at October 2019 levels.  The market has gotten ahead of itself with the promise of reopening, not realising that reopening is going to see bad times.  The stock market "should" tank.  In writing this I acknowledge conventional wisdom is you should never fight the Fed.  So the market is going to swing on interpreting the Fed.

Fair enough... I otherwise agree with a lot of what you had already said about the potential negative calamity and fall out from various bullshit policies that sometimes seem to be devolving into categories of intentional evil rather than mere incompetence...... even if there might not be a need for anyone here to panic, exactly, unless they had otherwise been ONLY preparing for one direction, which has never been something that I have considered to be feasible, even in less ambiguous times, so it is just a matter of attempting to prepare for both directions, and maybe tweaking your thinking and your holdings a bit in order to account for some changes in macro factors.

[cAPSLOCK]

So today I had a bit of a heart thumper...

I run nodes.  Because I think it is important to run nodes.  Do I think everyone should? No.  Just like I think many of the thoughts of the crypto community (yes i said CRYPTO, JJG) are pie in the sky idealism with ideas like "being your own bank" or citadels.  Lol.

It's not that you have to. It's that you CAN that is the revolution. You CAN be your own bank.  You CAN run a bitcoin node.

Well i was cleaning up the studio a little today to make room for this thing which fedex delivers today:


And I happened to glance at one of my lightning nodes.  It's running on a rPi and has a itty bitty screen that just lets mne know it's all good.

give root password for maintenance or press ctrl+d to continue

Oh, shit.

Quick log into 1ml.com and go look at my node.  Last update?  7 days ago.  Dang it! 

• How did I let that slip by so long???
• What is the expiry on the HTLCs for this one?  Did I happen to set them to a week?
• What if the damn HDD is toast?
• Did I remember to set up the channel backups?
• If so did I do it properly?
• Where is my seed for this one again?
• What version of LND/bitcoind/rtl/etc am I running again?

So then I downloaded puppy linux, used rufus to set it up on some trash USB thumbdrive booted, plugged in the HDD, and tried to mount. 

"Cannot mount. Structure needs cleaning."

Oh, thank God.  This is probably just a borked filesystem from a power outage I didn't notice.

fsck -y /dev/hdd1

Repaired.

mkdir ~/ln
mount /dev/hdd1 ln
Filesystem mounted.

la -la

etc...

Whew...
mkdir /mnt/windowsdisk/ln
cp -fR ln/ /mnt/windowsdisk/ln/

Go get coffee...

It backed up... Shut it down properly, umount it, power up the rPi again...



Whew...

So, yeah.  Nothing was ever all that wrong.  There was no catastrophe.  I was able to get it up and running easily, it was the absolute least bad thing that could even have happened.

But here's the thing.  I know what I am doing.  I mean where am I on the continuum from enough-to-be-dangerous------------the-guy-you-should-call? Probably pretty solidly on the left hand side over there.  But that's just it.  Running a lightning node is technically complex for most people, even one like this using an out of the box product (raspiblitz... can't say enough good about it.  Solid and well done, although I have upgraded lnd and rtl manually... can't help it).  My other LND note was built fully from scratch (well, not LFS, but Arch), and if it just had not been one of the first 200 nodes... EVER... I think I would take it down and replace it with another one of these. And you know, I just might take it down and be DONE with it.

Why?

Doing this is still risky!  It is still overly complicated.  If you are not behind TOR you are running a effing hotwallet on a public IP out in the open with experimental bitcoin smart contracts holding (in my case) waaaaay more value than I would feel comfortable losing.

Be your own bank, run your own node, build your own citadel... These are pie in the sky ideals.

Most people are going to STILL NEED BANKS.  Most people are going to find it best to hire professionals to safeguard their money.

Again, the revolution is not that you HAVE to take all this responsibility yourself... it is that you CAN.

Anyway.  Be careful out there fellow edge cutters.

And here's to the bull run that is still just barely getting cranked up!  I have a feeling in a year or so this is going to be a pretty smug group.

 

[Toxic2040]

-snippage of manywords-

If you conclude that I am being too pesky, then I will proclaim that "I am asking all of this for a friend."       

+1 WOsMerit


------

the noon wall report

a couple of charts with a couple of observations   

$10k boil achieved..simmer until al dente      this small correction was only obviously visible on the three hour chart     #dyor
3h


obviously things can be turned off or turned down...but when dealing with longer time frames..there is no switch to flip sometimes..trades sometimes having been set up months or years in advance need to unwind

the point being markets have inertia and at this particular juncture the inertia appears to be upwards
W

#stronghands

[serveria.com]

I am suspecting that you bought some cheap alt...confess 

Got some LTC around but no big numbers.

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Your acquisition cost is near zero because you have a near zero amount of Bitcoin. How can that be any good news?

I really still don't understand why you went all out and then started to DCA instead of just having left the intended (even if just 1BTC) amount in... anyways, if you are happier this way then it's all good. Stress is a huge killer.

I dunno man I stopped thinking about it. I want to stop thinking about it.

I had that pause before I clicked that sell button at that night but you know It was already decided what to do when I transferred the btc to the exchange.

Then I realized I managed to hodl all that time because I wasn't checking charts every day and wasn't investing heavily. When these 2 things changed, my stress levels started to increased in time. I used to sleep well because I knew I wasn't overinvested and if bitcoin just collapses I wouldn't lose much and again, that feeling wasn't there when it fell down to $3k...

It is one of these times you really see what you really want.

I was calculating my networth in btc rather than usd in the last 6 months but that drop put me back in my senses. I realized it is the Dollars I really want, not btc. Btc is just an asset for me to increase my dollar amounts. It is just another stock. Nothing wrong with that and as we have seen, it moves with the stock markets too.

Good, so I can invest in the US stocks without having to bother with all the paper work. That's good, I guess. (probably not for btc itself)

Damn if I were you I guess I'd just buy the most expensive gun I could afford with my remaining funds, golden bullets and then I'd just pull the trigger and send a bullet straight through my head... or less painful way: rebuy at ~$5-6-7k and become a millionaire within the next 12-24 months.

[Elwar]

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Sweden has a Case Fatality Rate of 12.3%.  Obviously the real CFR is lower than that, but impossible to tell what it really is due to lack of testing.

Liechtenstein had a total lockdown and their deaths were only 2905 from COVID. So obviously total lockdown is the way to go considering the number of deaths is lower.

[Biodom]

The stock market is way too high right now.  

Here is the SPX500.  There is no justification for us to be sitting at October 2019 levels.  The market has gotten ahead of itself with the promise of reopening, not realising that reopening is going to see bad times.  The stock market "should" tank.  In writing this I acknowledge conventional wisdom is you should never fight the Fed.  So the market is going to swing on interpreting the Fed.

yea, but there is that pesky gap close to the top.
In one insane scenario that I am contemplating, we would close that gap before reversing to find a 'true' bottom.
It doesn't have to happen, but it usually does, especially in index charts.

[Hyperjacked]

Soon.....

 "soon" has already been happening

In other words, maybe I should speak with memes so my straight-forward message might MOAR better sink in.

This is what I am saying:



Makes sense?

Hate 2 admit it ... it makes sense 😀

It's all mathematics...

[JayJuanGee]

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked.  

I'm turning you in vapourminer.  

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

meh apparently im too stupid to post images right now i guess
https://imgflip.com/i/40r3ec

I am not sure why posting images does not work for you.  Probably you need to attend re-education, and get yourself out of distracted thinkenings...



Protip:  Start re-programming, now.   Better to get it out of the way early.

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked.  

I'm turning you in vapourminer.  

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

(Done, image uploaded for vapouminer)

You are enabling.

Re-education camp for you, too.. VB1001

[jojo69]

[Icygreen]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

[Toxic2040]

+1 WOsMerit

Its actually quite hard to 'stop' in space..a fact not wholly appreciated.



------

in other news..combat operations continue in the upper $9,000's with Bears gaining the upper hand in the short term today and pushing the Bulls away from ten thousand

we have unconfirmed video from the front lines brought to you by GAINZ CORP



 

[Cryptotourist]

I really despise putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though various aspects of the current path seems to be striving in that direction... whether purposeful or incidental.

Perhaps the word you are looking for, is "apocalyptic" scenarios - in the true sense of the word - which means to unveil/uncover/disclose.

 "soon" has already been happening

In other words, maybe I should speak with memes so my straight-forward message might MOAR better sink in.

This is what I am saying:



Makes sense?

Hate 2 admit it ... it makes sense 😀

It's all mathematics...

Confirmed?

[Globb0]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I

[rolling]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

[Cryptotourist]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

Exactly what Icygreen said it was. Protests around the world.
Billy doesn't like that.

[Elwar]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

Nothing to see here. Everyone is following government orders. Don't leave your house. Wear a mask in bed. Wash your hands.