Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[somac.]

Registration date = December 15, 2013.

In other words, you have had 6.5 years to accumulate some corns.  

I bought my first bitcoin in early 2013 and I'm still buying now, so I like to get in at a good price too.

This buying is not accumulating for investment purposes though, it is savings. I am saving my money in Bitcoin, I used to save in fiat, but stopped doing that years ago. And in 20 years time, if I'm still working and the Bitcoin price is over a million, I will still be saving some of my pay in Bitcoin. Why, because I am "saving". It's really that simple.

[JayJuanGee]

~snip~  
So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.

Aug 2017

Are you trying to label yourself as a mid rather than a late 2017?


Such self labelling would be arguable, but might be a stretch depending upon whether your "self-proclaimed" entrance in August was early or late.  

You seems tired bhai, may be you should call it a day.   



Was trying to give exact timeline (China fud), that's it...

Probably, I should stop trying to be funny, unless I put an emoji..?

By the way, I am  NOT saying that you are wrong about some possible important China FUD in August 2017; however, I recall the BIG happenings in August 2017 was the  forkening baloney...

And, I also recall that sometime in late 2016, a lot of china peeps got locked out of being able to participate in easy access to bitcoin exchanges because China had shut down fiat on ramps and off ramps.. and largely they ended up being locked out for the whole 2017 bull run.. that china bans bitcoin FUD seemed to have backfired pretty badly on regular chinamen in 2017.. surely not all chinamen, but some of them got screwed into having to find other means to interact with transacting in trying to buy/sell bitcoins.

[jojo69]

At the moment our loving leader is beginning to realize the limits of his control of reality....

[Arriemoller]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Not this again...
Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs.
Do you grasp the gravitiy of this?

You are an idiot.
We are doing this right now, right here.
We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close.
Is that so hard for you to grasp?
Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us.

Just compare the infection charts of Austria and see who's doing it wrong, in respect to the fact we were a main european covid hub in february. It's even not over yet, and Hairy already pointed out that numbers aren't to be easily compared because of different base variables (number of testings). At least i'm clever enough for an idiot to understand this  

EDIT: The rest of your "argument" is just nonsense based on prejudice.

You don't seem to understand that we don't want a low infection rate, we want a slow infection rate.
We accept the virus as part of our reality, we don't lock anybody up, all businesses are open as usual, distancing is practiced, but it is a recommendation, not a law, no cop will arrest you if you hug anyone.
And I really, really, prefer it this way.

[bkbirge]

The health of a health system is easy established when everone is fighting the same disease at the same time.
Take care of yourself depenting on others is fatal. Lots of other counties with no lookdown or Covid sickness at all. (mainly island nations)

San Marino, no deaths in last 2 weeks (since 26 April), or the messenger died.
USA, ⅓ of total deaths in New York alone and 45% of all US deaths in New York + New Jersey
Fauci, CDC Director, and FDA Director now Covid sick.

I'd guess that world average number of 36 deaths per million is garbage. There's no way that reporting is consistent or honest among all those varying governments. Little difference than throwing up a bunch of random numbers.

[Toxic2040]

1h



4h

[jojo69]

actually, none of us know fuck all

each faction has their own set of "data" that supports what they already want to believe

we live in this postmodern dumpster fire where everyone gets to have their own "truth" ... until they can't

only time will tell

[FIFA worldcup]

Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now

What ?  What did you did ...Did you kept your Shorts Open  

[JSRAW]

Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now

Good for you Sway. I suggest stay and keep posting.

Thick skin + humility is key.. Just saying.

[BitcoinsGreat]

Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now

What ?  What did you did ...Did you kept your Shorts Open  

Bitcoin did dumped hard and it was expected because of some of the indicators but i thought halving will play a part but it failed too.  Lets hope its a short term correction.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The speculations come and go, but I could say that nothing is written, perhaps it is a simple throwback to start with a good bullish rally.

Bitcoin Dump Stalls At 100-day SMA: Here’s Why BTC Could Rally Again

Bitcoin climbed to a new monthly high at $10,097 before starting a downside correction.
The recent pre-halving dump found support near the 100-day simple moving average.
There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $8,000 on the daily chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

Technical indicators:

Daily MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD declined sharply and it is currently approaching the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $8,200 followed by $8,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $9,000, $9,500 and $10,000.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/10/bitcoin-btc-100-day-sma-rally-again/

[JayJuanGee]

Probably my last TA here, take it as a parting gift i suppose

Looks like any of us HODLers are fucked.

It's all downhill from here.  SwayStar has a very convincing set of squiggly line drawing skills.   

[nauane]

Probably my last TA here, take it as a parting gift i suppose

Looks like any of us HODLers are fucked.

It's all downhill from here.  SwayStar has a very convincing set of squiggly line drawing skills.   

Halving Party is Over 

[Wekkel]

What if we never see sub $8k again?

Almost 

I love waking up, seeing the weak hands tossed out and the strong hands getting stronger.

#BTFD

[VB1001]

Shittyyyyyyyyyy!
A suspicious red candle, let's see how long it takes to recover $9,000

[lotfiuser]

this proof that no indicator can expect bitcoin future price and i think the btc bull run is close

[Wekkel]

Probably my last TA here, take it as a parting gift i suppose

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hKOSoRKX/

A retest of $8,100 is plausible.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now

Your 0.5BTC stash is growing

[serveria.com]

Probably my last TA here, take it as a parting gift i suppose

What a retard! 

[JayJuanGee]

Welp im glad i didnt listen to u all and kept my shorts open, im outta here now

Your 0.5BTC stash is growing

You cannot really trust the representations of a twat like SwayStar. 

He's been purportedly laddering shorts since $6,200 (if not lower than that) (at least trying to act like he is some kind of BIG playar), so I am sure that even if he happened to have any money left (after losing every bet), sooner or later he is going to get it right.

In the meantime, likely that he has to borrow from grandma because has already sold the cookies and milk that she had given him in the weeks before.

Here's another example of his ongoing lameness:

laddered shorts at 6200, 6300, 6400, 100 contracts each