Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

I say you should only use credit to earn money, not to spend it.

Borrowing to spend on unnecessary luxuries like cars and phones is silly unless they are essential tools for earning money. Even then there are usually cheaper options that don't require borrowing.

Of course most people have been brainwashed by lifelong propaganda:

student loan, diploma, employee job, credit card, car payments, mortgage, overtime (or 2nd job), overpriced holiday package, designer clothing, etc.

They think borrowing and buying is the normal thing to do.

It's become so normal and prevalent in the U.S., that no one even questions it anymore. They get indoctrinated by observing what their parents and grandparents are doing with debt *cough* credit. Never mind the fact that assloads of debt that can't be paid back is what is making their parents and grandparents completely miserable.

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[Elwar]

Everyone who wants to take Bill Gates' vaccine....really should.

Like...please do.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Very interesting data ...



Twitter: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1258756633578135552

Source: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin%20halving

It is certainly good news, the fact that this type of interest is produced in some way will bring more and more people to the market, and obviously, the more demand there is, the supply decreases causing the price to increase in Bitcoin, it is a simple way to demonstrate the law of Supply and Demand.

[Biodom]

[I mostly agree with the scenarios depicted in the removed text]

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold [recently] open[ed] long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

a possible scenario as well, but disagree on ALL long positions liquidation.
Corrected with what should be (added text), in my opinion.
I would rather buy a big dip then sell now, then potentially chase.
I don't want to post scary charts, but all kind of variables are currently possible.
One thing, though, there will be no panic and re-locking/wrecked economy UNLESS there is a large fatality increase.
However, I saw that some economists say that FED went too big too early and is now basically spent/shown their hand.

[nutildah]

What would you have done differently?

I (if I controlled the government) would have done the same thing the government does during a bad flu season.

If I also controlled the government I would likely use the crisis as an opportunity to turn the health care system into a completely decentralized blockchain aided free market system.

If it was truly a bad pandemic people would be able to buy respirators (or 3D print their own), have a negative pressure room in their home/garage/basement, and AirBnB the hospital space. Uber Doctors and Nurses that come and check on patients and give monitoring advice to AirBnBs.

While I have also been control of the government I then turn every law enforcement agency into a blockchain based P2P service where if you need a threat managed you get on your app which uses AI to automatically contact the closest threat managers to deal with your particular situation until a private investigator can come in and gather evidence which is then utilized for an Augr type of trial to determine if the victim requires compensation from the accused.

After being given such supreme power over the government I would work until my position is no longer necessary and the market has fulfilled all roles from my central place of authority down to the smallest individual.

During the Spanish Flu, many local governments mandated people stay in doors or wear masks when going outside -- that's what the government did during a really bad flu season. Regardless, covid-19 is more lethal than the flu and doesn't have a vaccine. Nobody has natural antibodies built up against this virus.

Your approach would only work for the wealthiest 10% of the population. Putting everybody else on their own would inevitably cause a problem for those 10%. Regardless, your opinions are an interesting way of looking at things, so thanks for answering my question.

[Phil_S]

Oh right, how could I forget the thousands of bodies stacked high in 2009, dead from unemployment.  

Well...

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/21214734/deaths-of-despair-coronavirus-covid-19-angus-deaton-anne-case-americans-deaths

In 2015, life expectancy in the wealthiest country in the world fell for the first time in decades. Then came the nearly unfathomable: Life expectancy in the US fell again in 2016 — and for a third time in a row in 2017.

It is hard to communicate just how disquieting that trend is. Outside of wars or pandemics, life expectancy across the world has been consistently rising for almost a century, and has become a hallmark of highly developed nations. The last time a three-year downturn in life expectancy happened in the US was more than a century ago when the 1918 flu pandemic wiped out anywhere between 17 million and 100 million people worldwide.

What was happening? As Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton first pointed out in a 2015 paper, working-age white men and women without four-year college degrees were dying of suicide, drug overdoses, and alcohol-related liver disease — what Case and Deaton termed “deaths of despair” — at unprecedented rates. In 2017 alone, there were 158,000 deaths of despair in the US: the equivalent of “three fully loaded Boeing 737 MAX jets falling out of the sky every day for a year.”

[mindrust]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

[OutOfMemory]

once there was a user called mindrust, or something like that.
he was a die hard #hodlbull, he had faith into bitcoin and a plan for the future of his btc investment...
Anybody here knows what's up with him nowadays?

 

[bitserve]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Your acquisition cost is near zero because you have a near zero amount of Bitcoin. How can that be any good news?

I really still don't understand why you went all out and then started to DCA instead of just having left the intended (even if just 1BTC) amount in... anyways, if you are happier this way then it's all good. Stress is a huge killer.

[Cryptotourist]

When I zoom out on the monthly candles, and compare them to the previous halving, I feel that we must taste $12k-$14k, before correcting 35% or so.
September last call for 4 digits, and ATH in December (alts in death spiral, before 2021 recovery).

Completely SOMA of course.
This on the other hand,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZJiGu6Gz8E

could be the $100k masterpiece I've been looking for.

Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

We are, not sure about you bud.
Your contribution in defining the "mindrust maneuver" is priceless though.

[Biodom]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

I am suspecting that you bought some cheap alt...confess 

[eXPHHorizon]

The Market Cap of Bitcoin keeps growing and if we look at it from the Market Cap perspective then Bitcoin is already stronger than Vegeta even if Vegeta is in his God form . Go BTC GO !

To the Trillion $ Market Cap and Beyond !

[AlcoHoDL]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Sorry, but there is no way I can accept that you are not sad for selling...

[OutOfMemory]

The Market Cap of Bitcoin keeps growing and if we look at it from the Market Cap perspective then Bitcoin is already stronger than Vegeta even if Vegeta is in his God form . Go BTC GO !

To the Trillion $ Market Cap and Beyond !

Statements like this always let my mind "play" this track:
(One of the favourite bands/ tunes of my youth).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us104f-5vuM

[Hueristic]

We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

You have limper wrists then men I've turned down at the bars, before Rick moseyed into my life.

I think that was an insult, was that an insult?


Sorry mindrust, your gonna be the wippin boy for awhile.

[OutOfMemory]

You have limper wrists than men I've turned down at the bars, before Rick moseyed into my life.

Are you trying to say that Rick was the first to beat you at arm wrestling?  

#EDIT: And i mean REAL arm wrestling, not "arm wrestling", to all the homophobes that are reading this 

[mindrust]

I am suspecting that you bought some cheap alt...confess 

Got some LTC around but no big numbers.

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Your acquisition cost is near zero because you have a near zero amount of Bitcoin. How can that be any good news?

I really still don't understand why you went all out and then started to DCA instead of just having left the intended (even if just 1BTC) amount in... anyways, if you are happier this way then it's all good. Stress is a huge killer.

I dunno man I stopped thinking about it. I want to stop thinking about it.

I had that pause before I clicked that sell button at that night but you know It was already decided what to do when I transferred the btc to the exchange.

Then I realized I managed to hodl all that time because I wasn't checking charts every day and wasn't investing heavily. When these 2 things changed, my stress levels started to increased in time. I used to sleep well because I knew I wasn't overinvested and if bitcoin just collapses I wouldn't lose much and again, that feeling wasn't there when it fell down to $3k...

It is one of these times you really see what you really want.

I was calculating my networth in btc rather than usd in the last 6 months but that drop put me back in my senses. I realized it is the Dollars I really want, not btc. Btc is just an asset for me to increase my dollar amounts. It is just another stock. Nothing wrong with that and as we have seen, it moves with the stock markets too.

Good, so I can invest in the US stocks without having to bother with all the paper work. That's good, I guess. (probably not for btc itself)

[Digithusiast]

What happens if everyone would remove all their BTC selling orders for the next 48hrs?

[Hueristic]

The Market Cap of Bitcoin keeps growing and if we look at it from the Market Cap perspective then Bitcoin is already stronger than Vegeta even if Vegeta is in his God form . Go BTC GO !

To the Trillion $ Market Cap and Beyond !

Statements like this always let my mind "play" this track:
(One of the favourite bands/ tunes of my youth).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us104f-5vuM

And I raise you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnhvvsMLcAI&list=OLAK5uy_kJBy3DBeQzvetbjJ5udfWYFHARO5BZjPI


@Mindrust: Fuck this shit, do whatever gets you through life without stress and the rest can go to hell. But if your gonna go all cry baby and dump at the bottom here your gonna get your ass pinked for it.

[mindrust]

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right?  

Sorry, but there is no way I can accept that you are not sad for selling...

Sad for losing potential big money? yes

Sad for getting out of a speculative asset which is being dominated by fake dollars (tether)? No.

Now my base cost near zero, I don't really care if it goes to zero. And that feeling is awesome. It would have been more awesome If I cashed %50 out at 10k instead of waiting for 4.5k but when you promote casinos in your signature for months, for years, it just gets into you.